- That’s what I’m trying to figure out from this thread.
If the issue here is investment in BB10, that wouldn’t have been good for debt OR equity. We’d all have lost a ton of money if they kept throwing good money after bad. On that issue I think any sensible investor in BB, Watsa and BoD included, should agree.
I knew the Android effort was a waste of time and would fail. I posted it on this site before the Priv was even released. I knew Chen would not do what had to be done for success.
Yeah, Blackberry easily could have failed...Maybe even greater than 50% chance of failing. But that is why people own more than one stock in their portfolio. BlackBerry was a long shot with big upside.
Now it's nothing. It's just a cluster of companies paying interest to Watsa. It is dead money for shareholders. Why anyone would hold it is beyond me. Where is the great engineering that will produce consistent revenue growth?
It's sad listening to the talk about Internet of things and self driving cars like a kid trying to raise money at a start up. It's all speculative pie in the sky stuff. Chen won't spend enough to create great tech. His leash is too short.
Posted via CB10DonHB likes this.12-29-17 12:49 AMLike 1 - Why do you guys keep fixating only on BB10? His Android effort was half--ssed also.
Troy, you keep stating that Chen meant to fail on BB10 just to burn off purchase commitments. I watched the whole thing play out and do not agree with this. I don't think Chen had enough information even to know it would fail. This was not even his area.
Chen's management style guaranteed its failure though. That is the risk aversion a lender would prefer but a shareholder would abhor.
Posted via CB10
You can see the value of the purchase commitments in the quarterly filings. You can see them decrease steadily under Chen.
You can’t fail at something you weren’t trying to do. They were never trying to save the handset business under Chen. Instead of pulling the plug and eating a huge loss to settle the purchase commitments, they instead satisfied the commitment by running a very low key phone business that managed to stay relatively close to break even. Then when the commitments were finally all satisfied, they pulled the plug and switched to licensing.
Again, every observation of their actions indicates they were winding down the phone business once Chen started. They were trying to get to a soft landing, while buying time to get the software business ramped up.
That is not failure. It is choosing a strategy (in this case to retreat from the business they couldn’t win and focus on one they can) and then executing on that strategy.
It’s only a failure if you’re holding onto dreams of the old BB that made phones. That BB is dead. Over. Finished. Moved on. Left the station. Retired. Into the sunset. Goodnight. Gone to the business strategy farm in the sky. Seriously.Troy Tiscareno and glwerry like this.12-29-17 12:53 AMLike 2 - Purchase commitment are contractual commitments to buy components and services.
You can see the value of the purchase commitments in the quarterly filings. You can see them decrease steadily under Chen.
You can’t fail at something you weren’t trying to do. They were never trying to save the handset business under Chen. Instead of pulling the plug and eating a huge loss to settle the purchase commitments, they instead satisfied the commitment by running a very low key phone business that managed to stay relatively close to break even. Then when the commitments were finally all satisfied, they pulled the plug and switched to licensing.
Again, every observation of their actions indicates they were winding down the phone business once Chen started. They were trying to get to a soft landing, while buying time to get the software business ramped up.
That is not failure. It is choosing a strategy (in this case to retreat from the business they couldn’t win and focus on one they can) and then executing on that strategy.
It’s only a failure if you’re holding onto dreams of the old BB that made phones. That BB is dead. Over. Finished. Moved on. Left the station. Retired. Into the sunset. Goodnight. Gone to the business strategy farm in the sky. Seriously.
If BB really had no hope of succeeding in handsets, it would have lost less money just telling the vendors, "we're getting out of the business and can pay you something for our commitment if you can't find another buyer." Or pay for lost profits if the parts were not already made.
I've seen no convincing evidence of this and I think I would have been aware of it.
Lastly, if true then I think Chen should not have misled investors that he was really hopeful to be profitable at 10 million phones and then 5 million, or whatever, if he were going to axe the core business the whole time and knew he would not hit those targets. He sure fooled me, and I'm upset if that is what he really did (which he didn't).
Posted via CB1012-29-17 02:24 AMLike 0 - I would love to see those numbers broken out in the financials. I listened to most if not all of the earnings calls around this time and I don't remember any discussion of these commitments as a main driving force for the company's strategy.
If BB really had no hope of succeeding in handsets, it would have lost less money just telling the vendors, "we're getting out of the business and can pay you something for our commitment if you can't find another buyer." Or pay for lost profits if the parts were not already made.
I've seen no convincing evidence of this and I think I would have been aware of it.
Lastly, if true then I think Chen should not have misled investors that he was really hopeful to be profitable at 10 million phones and then 5 million, or whatever, if he were going to axe the core business the whole time and knew he would not hit those targets. He sure fooled me, and I'm upset if that is what he really did (which he didn't).
Posted via CB10
Purchase commitments are legal obligations the company entered into. They're obligated to pay for them as they agreed just like other creditor obligations such as leases and mortgages. The manufacturers required this from BlackBerry or they wouldn't commit to supplying the parts since components are partially customized for each customer. If your strategy was available, without having to enter bankruptcy and wiping out the shareholders, executive management would have gone that route since it would have provided needed cash flow to keep overall company running with existing non BB10 products.
Even if Chen had really believed in BB10, after the last CEO broke the company, there is no way the BOD would have allowed BB10 hardware strategy beyond what actually was used by Chen to offload those purchase commitment devices actually produced. The devices existed and were paid for. They needed to be unloaded in a way to minimize losses to shareholders. This was done while always mentioning BlackBerry might exit hardware. Same thing with Android devices.
The strategy was always to replace a BIS type revenue structure. The plan was to return BlackBerry to kind of company it was, before the folly of BB10. You see, John Chen has been doing his fiduciary job, the whole time.12-29-17 07:11 AMLike 0 - It's not so much "investment in BB10" as investment in phone launches and marketing -- for BB10 and later Android -- so that people outside of Crackberry know it exists.
I knew the Android effort was a waste of time and would fail. I posted it on this site before the Priv was even released. I knew Chen would not do what had to be done for success.
Yeah, Blackberry easily could have failed...Maybe even greater than 50% chance of failing. But that is why people own more than one stock in their portfolio. BlackBerry was a long shot with big upside.
Now it's nothing. It's just a cluster of companies paying interest to Watsa. It is dead money for shareholders. Why anyone would hold it is beyond me. Where is the great engineering that will produce consistent revenue growth?
It's sad listening to the talk about Internet of things and self driving cars like a kid trying to raise money at a start up. It's all speculative pie in the sky stuff. Chen won't spend enough to create great tech. His leash is too short.
Posted via CB10
It was a gamble equity play when the company was put up for sale. At this point, nobody will buy the company because it can be purchased cheaper in bankruptcy and divided up. This is when BB10 ( and probably Android hardware) is no longer an option for the company to survive. The gamble equity play now was for the survival of BlackBerry the company.
The company ran out the cash to gamble with. The remaining company had to be saved in order to save jobs and whatever assets were salvageable as ongoing concern for BlackBerry to continue in the future.12-29-17 07:25 AMLike 0 -
The majority of the BOD and majority of shareholders accepted this loan offer with all of it's final provisions in order to get the cash infusion. This was all required to be legal..12-29-17 07:42 AMLike 0 - Why do you guys keep fixating only on BB10? His Android effort was half--ssed also.
Troy, you keep stating that Chen meant to fail on BB10 just to burn off purchase commitments. I watched the whole thing play out and do not agree with this. I don't think Chen had enough information even to know it would fail. This was not even his area.
Chen's management style guaranteed its failure though. That is the risk aversion a lender would prefer but a shareholder would abhor.
Posted via CB10
The courts don't want fiduciary managers gambling with client money. They are expected to make sound and prudent decisions.12-29-17 07:46 AMLike 0 - You will have to buy a Sony X on that phone you can easily install Sailfish. Beside that phone I can't find a manufacturer in Europe which sells a phone with Sailfish installed on it by default. I just want a phone with Sailfish for a good price. I'm not looking for a 250 euro phone the Sony X + 50 euro for Sailfish.12-29-17 08:04 AMLike 0
- If everyone can keep hypothesizing that Chen was not the right person to save BB10 and the handset division, you need to admit that it is also possible that they could not be saved regardless of whomever was brought in.12-29-17 08:05 AMLike 4
- I would love to see those numbers broken out in the financials. I listened to most if not all of the earnings calls around this time and I don't remember any discussion of these commitments as a main driving force for the company's strategy.
If BB really had no hope of succeeding in handsets, it would have lost less money just telling the vendors, "we're getting out of the business and can pay you something for our commitment if you can't find another buyer." Or pay for lost profits if the parts were not already made.
I've seen no convincing evidence of this and I think I would have been aware of it.
Lastly, if true then I think Chen should not have misled investors that he was really hopeful to be profitable at 10 million phones and then 5 million, or whatever, if he were going to axe the core business the whole time and knew he would not hit those targets. He sure fooled me, and I'm upset if that is what he really did (which he didn't).
Posted via CB10
Download the PDFs and then, using whatever PDF viewer you prefer, search for “purchase commitment”
It’s all there in the financials12-29-17 10:42 AMLike 0 -
So, the entire debate about someone other than Chen being able to save BB10 is pointless.12-29-17 10:55 AMLike 0 -
-
My view is when Thor panicked and put out the For Sale Sign, things were really bad. That BlackBerry is still here in some form is nothing short of a Miracle. Do think that some statements were a lot of smoke and mirrors - maybe some overly optimistic BB10 fans got the wrong idea.... oh well. I've also said that fans don't make good investment decisions sometimes.anon(9803228) likes this.12-29-17 01:21 PMLike 1 - Four years later and they are out of the hardware business and have given BB10 an expiration date.... it's beyond pointless.
My view is when Thor panicked and put out the For Sale Sign, things were really bad. That BlackBerry is still here in some form is nothing short of a Miracle. Do think that some statements were a lot of smoke and mirrors - maybe some overly optimistic BB10 fans got the wrong idea.... oh well. I've also said that fans don't make good investment decisions sometimes.
Posted via CB1012-29-17 01:40 PMLike 0 -
Let's not forget all of the messages to consumers at the same time about commitment to the operating system.
So Chen committed investor fraud under your theory.
Posted via CB1012-29-17 01:48 PMLike 0 -
I am looking at Q1 2014 now and I just see "accrued liabilities" on the balance sheet. So where is this line item we can see decline each month? I don't see any footnotes on this issue either.
There is just a generic legal disclosure buried amongst others that certain purchase commitments exist and may affect future performance.
Echo chamber.
Posted via CB10DonHB likes this.12-29-17 02:01 PMLike 1 - Really? What line item on a balance sheet breaks out purchase order commitments from other long term liabilities? Is it somewhere else?
I am looking at Q1 2014 now and I just see "accrued liabilities" on the balance sheet. So where is this line item we can see decline each month? I don't see any footnotes on this issue either.
There is just a generic legal disclosure buried amongst others that certain purchase commitments exist and may affect future performance.
Echo chamber.
Posted via CB10
Are you sure you are reading the actual filing or just the press release?
https://us.blackberry.com/content/da...nal_filing.pdf
Page 11 of the actual filing ^^^Dunt Dunt Dunt likes this.12-29-17 02:14 PMLike 1 - He made the company profitable and placed BlackBerry Limited on a solid foundation for growth. All of Chen's major decisions were approved by the Board. If there was a majority of shareholders who were against the Board actions they could have fought the Board for control. I have not read of any action taken against the Board since Chen took over.12-29-17 02:15 PMLike 0
- It's misleading if Chen had no intention of continuing in handsets and set it up to fail. It is. These are two different things: 1) I am actively transitioning the company out of handsets and burning off commitments in order to minimize loss versus 2) I think we can be profitable at X million and I think we can hit this number.
Let's not forget all of the messages to consumers at the same time about commitment to the operating system.
So Chen committed investor fraud under your theory.
Posted via CB10
If they had reached the 10M or 5M they might have been able to sustain that. But he also said repeatedly that if they fell short of that mark they would get out. That was always the context of that message. What he said was probably true. What he did NOT say is that BB would make investments in advertising to try to reach that number. He never said that. He said we might reach that number, and if we don’t, oh well peace out.
If they had spent money on advertising, that 10M figure would have risen (probably quite a bit because advertising in large markets is expensive)anon(9803228) likes this.12-29-17 02:18 PMLike 1 - Those are not contradictory if you go back and listen to what Chen said and not what you and other handset fans wanted to hear.
If they had reached the 10M or 5M they might have been able to sustain that. But he also said repeatedly that if they fell short of that mark they would get out. That was always the context of that message. What he said was probably true. What he did NOT say is that BB would make investments in advertising to try to reach that number. He never said that. He said we might reach that number, and if we don’t, oh well peace out.
If they had spent money on advertising, that 10M figure would have risen (probably quite a bit because advertising in large markets is expensive)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...A3822M20140410
That being said, they certainly did push the Passport and Classic (hired a new marketing firm, brought new apps to the platform, started Passport partnerships/studies with hospitals, etc) but I think they underestimated overall demand. The failure of the Fire Phone and (as a result) the Amazon Appstore play for consumer apps probably didn't help their sales much in other markets either (consumer, general enterprise, etc).anon(9803228) likes this.12-29-17 04:28 PMLike 1 - It's misleading if Chen had no intention of continuing in handsets and set it up to fail. It is. These are two different things: 1) I am actively transitioning the company out of handsets and burning off commitments in order to minimize loss versus 2) I think we can be profitable at X million and I think we can hit this number.
Let's not forget all of the messages to consumers at the same time about commitment to the operating system.
So Chen committed investor fraud under your theory.
Posted via CB10
Chen has done nothing but his required job for all shareholders which is putting the company's health and stability first.anon(9803228) likes this.12-29-17 05:10 PMLike 1 - Those are not contradictory if you go back and listen to what Chen said and not what you and other handset fans wanted to hear.
If they had reached the 10M or 5M they might have been able to sustain that. But he also said repeatedly that if they fell short of that mark they would get out. That was always the context of that message. What he said was probably true. What he did NOT say is that BB would make investments in advertising to try to reach that number. He never said that. He said we might reach that number, and if we don’t, oh well peace out.
If they had spent money on advertising, that 10M figure would have risen (probably quite a bit because advertising in large markets is expensive)
Posted via CB1012-29-17 09:40 PMLike 0 - What investor fraud? He didn't lie and he said what needed to be said to keep share price stable. He basically stated the obvious that if minimum numbers weren't met, they'd exit the business. Then switching to Android, he lowered the minimum number. The company did the minimum regarding spending money because it didn't have any compared to other areas of the company that offered better returns and lower risks.
Chen has done nothing but his required job for all shareholders which is putting the company's health and stability first.Last edited by eshropshire; 12-30-17 at 12:17 AM.
anon(9803228) and glwerry like this.12-29-17 10:14 PMLike 2
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