The Priv Might Mark the End of BB10 In More Than One Way...

The Priv is definitely an attractive device for many reasons and being a diehard BlackBerry fan, I've definitely thought about upgrading not only because I like the device but because I want to support BlackBerry and see them come back into the smartphone arena.

Many critics are calling the Priv BlackBerry's final attempt at regaining some headway in the handset market but then the thought occurred to me, if Priv sales are good would that mean the end of BB10? I'm at a standstill. If sales are bad, it could mark BlackBerry's exit from the handset market, but if Priv sales are good it might be the nail on BB10'S coffin.

What are your thoughts? Am I over-analyzing?

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This just occurred to you? How about the dynamic that once you are using the Android platform rather than BB10, why would your next device have to be a BlackBerry? You literally have gone from the fewest to the most upgrade options one can have.

Fact is this 'sure thing' turnaround strategy is BB's best bet. If they have to sacrifice hardware to stay in business, it's the best way to go. Who doesn't want a hardened Android device?

We've seen Chen's priorities in action, so this all should come as no surprise. :)

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It looks like it might happen... but I really want BlackBerry 10 to survive and grow... Most of them don't realize how awesome the BlackBerry 10 OS is.... when they ask me why BlackBerry, I say it's the BlackBerry experience that keeps me... to be frank I am blown away that BlackBerry can do almost everything a PC does...

I just hope that someday, BlackBerry opens its OS to rest of the handset market and get involved with the Samsung, LG and other niche players to produce more awesome hand sets... like Google and Microsoft does...

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Originally Posted by Elango87

I just hope that someday, BlackBerry opens its OS to rest of the handset market and get involved with the Samsung, LG and other niche players to produce more awesome hand sets... like Google and Microsoft does...

Heins tried for nearly 2 years to find someone willing to license BB10 - there were no takers. And BB10's sales (or lack thereof) shows exactly why not: BB has been losing $100 per handset sold, on average, since the launch of BB10. If BB had managed to just break even, they'd have about $1.2B more cash then they have today. Who would want to license an OS when its own maker can't even break even on? Would a bar sell liquor that it lost money on every time they poured a drink?

I get that you're a fan of BB10, and as an OS, it's got a lot going for it - but all of that is irrelevant when it comes to business, because OSs don't sell smartphones - ecosystems do, and BB10 doesn't have one, and doesn't have a hope in hell of ever building one. In fact, what little ecosystem it has now is already crumbling, as apps and services are no longer being updated or no longer supporting BB10. It's a shame, yes, but like the saying goes: "If it doesn't make dollars, it doesn't make sense."

And if the Priv isn't gonna save BlackBerry, then how long will they be supporting the Priv? Not that I want one, but I'm not sure any company would get an experimental device that might not get LTS if BlackBerry decides it's not saving them.

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Originally Posted by Vistaus

And if the Priv isn't gonna save BlackBerry, then how long will they be supporting the Priv? Not that I want one, but I'm not sure any company would get an experimental device that might not get LTS if BlackBerry decides it's not saving them.

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The shortest amount of time that they are obligated to. If they can. If they go bankrupt they won't be able to honor their obligations.

Originally Posted by DrBoomBotz

The shortest amount of time that they are obligated to. If they can. If they go bankrupt they won't be able to honor their obligations.

Blackberry is in no danger of going bankrupt in the next several years. There will be maintenence and bug fix support for all of their phones over the next few years regardless of how the Priv sells. They might well exit the handset business if the Priv is a flop, but they will honor warranty obligations and maintain the OS for at least 2-3, probably 4-5 years after release. Not doing so would hurt their prospects in their other lines of business.

Their problem is the PERCEPTION that they might not support devices, but that perception is not supported by any evidence. They have managed cash flow very well and will continue as a business even without phones. In fact, without the handset business their appeal as an acquisition target would increase substantially.

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Originally Posted by bb10adopter111

Their problem is the PERCEPTION that they might not support devices, but that perception is not supported by any evidence.

Yes they may support BB10 longer than they are obligated to.
The purpose of JC promising 10.3.3 and 10.3.4 and also giving a timeline for 10.3.3 is to assure stakeholders that they won't cut and run.
These promises are also a way to manage expectations.
If you expect any service release beyond 10.3.4 then you could be disappointed.
On the other hand a post 10.3.4 update may come and should be treated as a bonus.
According to the Wikipedia the last released BB10 device is the Leap in 2015 so they need to support it for a while.

The PERCEPTION problem is largely due to the Playbook.
IMHO they won't repeat that mistake.

Originally Posted by Troy Tiscareno

Heins tried for nearly 2 years to find someone willing to license BB10 - there were no takers. And BB10's sales (or lack thereof) shows exactly why not: BB has been losing $100 per handset sold, on average, since the launch of BB10. If BB had managed to just break even, they'd have about $1.2B more cash then they have today. Who would want to license an OS when its own maker can't even break even on? Would a bar sell liquor that it lost money on every time they poured a drink?

You mean like Google and Android? Google doesn't make any money on licensing or selling Android phones.

Originally Posted by Bluenoser63

You mean like Google and Android? Google doesn't make any money on licensing or selling Android phones.

http://devblog.blackberry.com/2015/1...10-developers/

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Originally Posted by mania626

http://devblog.blackberry.com/2015/1...10-developers/

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The bit about Amazon app store is rather funny when even Mr. Chen dissed Amazon recently.

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Originally Posted by bbafdad

The Priv is definitely an attractive device for many reasons and being a diehard BlackBerry fan, I've definitely thought about upgrading not only because I like the device but because I want to support BlackBerry and see them come back into the smartphone arena.

Many critics are calling the Priv BlackBerry's final attempt at regaining some headway in the handset market but then the thought occurred to me, if Priv sales are good would that mean the end of BB10? I'm at a standstill. If sales are bad, it could mark BlackBerry's exit from the handset market, but if Priv sales are good it might be the nail on BB10'S coffin.

What are your thoughts? Am I over-analyzing?

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No one knows yet we all have our own speculations. For most, the idea that BB10 is EOL rules the day whether the Priv takes off or not. However, what will happen exactly will remain to be seen. If the Priv is successful Chen has ambiguously indicated that BB10 could continue on. He was also ambiguous when he said that if the Priv is not successful then he would.... ....stop with Android? ....end BB10? ....or pull out of handsets all together?

It's plausible that BB10 will continue on in one way or another but how or when is something that will play out over time and ironically will be tied to the sales of the Priv.

Originally Posted by early2bed

This just occurred to you? How about the dynamic that once you are using the Android platform rather than BB10, why would your next device have to be a BlackBerry? You literally have gone from the fewest to the most upgrade options one can have.

Kind of. BlackBerry is putting their own unique BlackBerry touch onto the Priv in ways that no other Android vendor is doing and this is something that will most certainly continue into the future if they stick with it. I know people laugh at me for this but the OS on the Priv 2 could be more akin to BB10 than it is to vanilla Android. I mean, keep in mind that this is BlackBerry we are talking here; no matter how much Android the Priv may be BlackBerry will insist on doing it their way for better or worse. Anyone who thinks that BlackBerry is going to simply bow down and play their hand to Google is nuts and Chen did say that within one to two years he hopes that BlackBerry's security solutions will be as baked into Android BlackBerry as they are on BB10 to the point where no one would know the difference. Add into other "BlackBerry" solutions/tech and obviously this indicates a radical redesign of Android that no one else is doing/will do.

So no, going from the Priv to another non-BlackBerry Android will not be the same as say going from a flagship Samsung to a flagship LG where the only differences are in chassis and and skin/launcher and camera software.

Originally Posted by hastypixels

Fact is this 'sure thing' turnaround strategy is BB's best bet. If they have to sacrifice hardware to stay in business, it's the best way to go. Who doesn't want a hardened Android device?

We've seen Chen's priorities in action, so this all should come as no surprise. :)

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BlackBerry's turnaround strategy is largely about everything but handsets and the handsets are only a small part of it if any part at all.

And who doesn't want a hardened Android device? Seriously, you ask that question?

Originally Posted by Bluenoser63

You mean like Google and Android? Google doesn't make any money on licensing or selling Android phones.

Nope, they don't.

Originally Posted by Bbnivende

The bit about Amazon app store is rather funny when even Mr. Chen dissed Amazon recently.

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He had to say something, right. I am sure Amazon understands but it does not matter anyways considering that most people on this planet have no idea who Chen is or that BlackBerry partnered with Amazon.

Originally Posted by Bluenoser63

You mean like Google and Android? Google doesn't make any money on licensing or selling Android phones.

They don't need to. They make billions per year in Play Store commissions, and more billions in advertising (the largest advertising platform in the world, both desktop and mobile). They make small profits from Nexus devices, but they don't even need that. Google is in a very different position (with 83% of the global market, and very diversified) than BB is with 0.2% of the market, minimal diversification, and very limited resources.

But, again, you make my point: if you were a manufacturer looking for an OS to run on the phones you want to make and sell, you have two free options (Android & WinPhone), both of which have significantly more marketshare than BB10, which is an unmitigated failure in the market, so why would you PAY for BB10 over two free options that are proven to sell much better? Clearly, every phone manufacturer worldwide agrees, as not a single one has licensed BB10.

I really think PRIV will succeed. The hardware is incredible, the double keyboard concept is amazing, it has android, so we will probably see a lot of carries supporting it, which is really important. But, for bb10, it could be the end. If the private turns into a success, bb10 will breath for more 4 years/ max. Unfortunately, bb10 didn't impress the devs and, in the other hand, BlackBerry couldn't invest massively on mkt for obvious reasons. So the OS is on a limbo now. It's sad because we all know the potential of this OS, but as a CEO, worried about the business, I would cease bb10 support too if adoption were low. We must keep I'm mind that the company probably needs millions just to keep it working... like Metallica says: "Sad, but true!" :/

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Originally Posted by Troy Tiscareno

Heins tried for nearly 2 years to find someone willing to license BB10 - there were no takers. And BB10's sales (or lack thereof) shows exactly why not: BB has been losing $100 per handset sold, on average, since the launch of BB10. If BB had managed to just break even, they'd have about $1.2B more cash then they have today. Who would want to license an OS when its own maker can't even break even on? Would a bar sell liquor that it lost money on every time they poured a drink?

I get that you're a fan of BB10, and as an OS, it's got a lot going for it - but all of that is irrelevant when it comes to business, because OSs don't sell smartphones - ecosystems do, and BB10 doesn't have one, and doesn't have a hope in hell of ever building one. In fact, what little ecosystem it has now is already crumbling, as apps and services are no longer being updated or no longer supporting BB10. It's a shame, yes, but like the saying goes: "If it doesn't make dollars, it doesn't make sense."

+1

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Originally Posted by mania626

An update for BlackBerry� 10 Developers | BlackBerry Developer Blog

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What does that link have to do with what I posted?

Originally Posted by Bluenoser63

What does that link have to do with what I posted?

I did not quote you. Maniac626 quoted you.

Although I do not always agree with you, I like reading your contributions.

Going to my post, this was the relevant passage

App distribution

BlackBerry will also continue to support BlackBerry World for distributing apps for BlackBerry 10 and BlackBerry OS subscribers. It is the place to find business and productivity apps.

The Amazon Appstore is the place for the latest apps and games on BlackBerry 10*.

As always, developers can choose to distribute their apps through whichever store they wish.

-------------

Pure Chen.. the idea that BB10 is a serious business device and that BBW is for "serious apps". The reality is most BlackBerry phones are purchased by consumers now and in the future. While BlackBerry was a business phone to begin with, I do not see that market returning to its former state.

I once suggested that BBW should have had a pure Android apk division and most disagreed with me. Now, that ship has sailed and BBW will likely wither away before BB10 does .

Edit: one advantage that BlackBerry has is that know how to design software and hardware. They could succeed in making a better Android phone or at least a phone that has enough BlackBerry DNA to appeal to their core base and to attract new customers. Too bad about the marketing side.



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