07-11-17 01:11 PM
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  1. Ment's Avatar
    Microsoft has literally just made a large investment into windows mobile, developing the revolutionary win32 on ARM emu with Qualcomm. Which is something else no other smart phone can touch - full browsers, extensions, 4 million windows applications.

    Most likely most phones after the rollout of flexible OLED screens will be tablets. That will be IMO, in I'd say roughly six years the first "book" devices. The prototype was developed years ago, its just the production methods we are waiting for. And Samsung and Microsoft own the patent.
    This thread is about what next to adopt after BB10 and you're talking about 2020+? 5 years ago Android was still an upstart and meanwhile Symbian, WebOS, BBOS, WinMo and a host of others have fallen to the wayside. Of course the possibilities are endless if your horizon is that far into the future. You just can't make decisions on what to do later this year or next year based on it.
    BigBadWulf likes this.
    04-06-17 03:17 PM
  2. bb10adopter111's Avatar
    The number of people buying Windows phones number in the hundreds of thousands per quarter globally. Dead as a door nail.
    Windows Mobile is dead, but Windows is still the most used OS is the world.

    " in July 2016, according to StatCounter, that also tracks use based on web use, Windows OSes accounted for 46.87% of usage share, compared to 36.48% for Android, 12.26% for iOS, and 4.81% for macOS" -- wikipedia

    Android sales outpace Windows by a 3-1 factor, but that's at least partly because 1) mobile is new and desktop/laptop is mature, and 2) PCs life cycle is typically 5+ years compared to 3+ for phones.

    The question for Windows on mobile is not if it will compete with (free) Android for the low (consumer) end of the market. I don't think Microsoft would be dumb enough to try that again. But there is every indication that they will launch a device aimed at traditional PC users that can replace their mobile phone/PC combo with a single device.

    The open question is whether, given the choice, a significant proportion of the market segment of professionals who could not function without a PC on a daily basis would prefer to unify on a genuine Windows everywhere platform, or if they'd prefer a Windows/Android or Windows/iOS combo.

    Personally, if given a 7-10 inch Win 10 device with decent (+6 hrs) battery life and always available data/telephony, that could run win32 apps and dock with all my peripherals, I would never carry another mobile phone again.

    But I don't claim to be typical. :-)

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    Drael646464 and anon(6038817) like this.
    04-06-17 04:58 PM
  3. conite's Avatar
    Windows Mobile is dead, but Windows is still the most used OS is the world.

    " in July 2016, according to StatCounter, that also tracks use based on web use, Windows OSes accounted for 46.87% of usage share, compared to 36.48% for Android, 12.26% for iOS, and 4.81% for macOS" -- wikipedia

    Android sales outpace Windows by a 3-1 factor, but that's at least partly because 1) mobile is new and desktop/laptop is mature, and 2) PCs life cycle is typically 5+ years compared to 3+ for phones.

    The question for Windows on mobile is not if it will compete with (free) Android for the low (consumer) end of the market. I don't think Microsoft would be dumb enough to try that again. But there is every indication that they will launch a device aimed at traditional PC users that can replace their mobile phone/PC combo with a single device.

    The open question is whether, given the choice, a significant proportion of the market segment of professionals who could not function without a PC on a daily basis would prefer to unify on a genuine Windows everywhere platform, or if they'd prefer a Windows/Android or Windows/iOS combo.

    Personally, if given a 7-10 inch Win 10 device with decent (+6 hrs) battery life and always available data/telephony, that could run win32 apps and dock with all my peripherals, I would never carry another mobile phone again.

    But I don't claim to be typical. :-)

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    Android just surpassed Windows as the dominant OS on the planet.

    Microsoft has always had "plans". Many don't happen, and many crash and burn. I'll believe it when I see it.

    04-06-17 05:02 PM
  4. bb10adopter111's Avatar
    Are you willing to back up your enthusiasm with a huge investment in their stock? Microsoft has a long history of not delivering on their "visions" for mobile.
    I am highly leveraged in MS long term LEAPS (Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities) . The stock has moved almost 60% in the past two years, and I am up more than 250% on my options trade and letting it run.

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    Drael646464 and anon(6038817) like this.
    04-06-17 05:06 PM
  5. bb10adopter111's Avatar
    Android just surpassed Windows as the dominant OS on the planet.

    Microsoft has always had "plans". Many don't happen, and many crash and burn. I'll believe it when I see it.

    https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...e3dcbc331f.jpg
    I like hearing your perspective, because it's so different from my experience.

    You live in a mobile-centered world, which is driven by consumer uptake, venture capital, and the faith that the free software for consumer data marketplace is viable over the long term.

    I live in the engineering, IP, and content creation world where per user software provisioning runs into thousands of dollars annually, with mobile as a useful tool for the field, because of custom apps. In that world, any decent mobile platform would be sufficient, and 99.9% of the existing app base is irrelevant.

    I suspect both worlds will coexist indefinitely.
    Posted with my trusty Z10
    04-06-17 05:11 PM
  6. stlabrat's Avatar
    3 years? 5G good design handset with HTML5 majority web access (minimize App). If apple is on track, may be ibm/swift OS (since apple is going to design its own graphic and they already had A10, plus bidding on Panasonic chip plant, look promissing. they got majority of the lego chips, plus work with IBM on the application). Microsoft still got bloading software, BB10 would be a good fit but no hardware. the next gen is all about hardware to speed things up, 5G, if not done properly, some one is going to be "cooked" literaly. (radar frequency).https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5G
    Last edited by stlabrat; 04-07-17 at 07:39 AM.
    04-06-17 07:10 PM
  7. Drael646464's Avatar
    This thread is about what next to adopt after BB10 and you're talking about 2020+? 5 years ago Android was still an upstart and meanwhile Symbian, WebOS, BBOS, WinMo and a host of others have fallen to the wayside. Of course the possibilities are endless if your horizon is that far into the future. You just can't make decisions on what to do later this year or next year based on it.
    2020 is three years away. And most of this isn't.

    Flexible OLED screens will be here in jabout half a decade. win32 on ARM will be here in a year. The premium slab phone market will start diminishing in under 2. The turn should start this year actually. And windows store will be quite flush with UWP apps in one or at most two years.

    A lot of major changes are quite close. Of those I have listed, the exact timing of one, is slightly uncertain (flexible oled screens), but they are all quite predictable events.

    Following a known economic trend, or a demo'd announcement and release isn't crystal ball gazing. I won't be buying my new phone this year. So at minimum this stuff applies to me.

    Sure the IoT is long term. As is AI, and conversational platforms. But for some people the long term life of their platform is important. People like developers, or businesses.

    Speaking of distant future, I'm not sure who's long term future I would trust more, apple or android. Probably android given googles diverse portfolio, and apple being up to the eyeballs in the soon to fall premium market of traditional slabs. That said, androids software quality is lacking for bigger screen formats, and their market % is dropping in tablets, it seems possible they won't fair so well as a bigger screened platform. Googles going nowhere though, but android I suspect will have to adapt more than iOS, when things move to flexible OLED screens.
    Last edited by Drael646464; 04-06-17 at 09:03 PM.
    04-06-17 08:45 PM
  8. Drael646464's Avatar
    I am highly leveraged in MS long term LEAPS (Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities) . The stock has moved almost 60% in the past two years, and I am up more than 250% on my options trade and letting it run.

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    That doesn't surprise me. It's pretty obvious Microsoft has been doing well recently, and that it's generated quite a lot of heat around its vision.
    04-06-17 08:48 PM
  9. bb10adopter111's Avatar
    That doesn't surprise me. It's pretty obvious Microsoft has been doing well recently, and that it's generated quite a lot of heat around its vision.
    Google has an amazing ability to give people valuable free software tools in return for mind share and Internet dominance; Microsoft has earned its market dominance the old fashioned way, by building and selling its products at healthy margins to the vast majority of enterprise IT buyers.

    Microsoft's enterprise platform as a service offerings are deep and robust, and they have been executing on their vision quickly and effectively over the past several years. It seems to me, as an observer, that they have taken stock of their strengths and are playing to them.

    It took them a while to wind down their inadequate Windows Mobile efforts, but they finally seem to get that a Windows emulation that doesn't run "real" windows will never be successful.

    But the accounts we have, their next foray will be with a mobile version that runs the millions of Windows applications. It's also unlikely that it will be in the phone from factor.

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    Last edited by bb10adopter111; 04-06-17 at 09:48 PM.
    04-06-17 09:37 PM
  10. Drael646464's Avatar
    Google has an amazing ability to give people valuable free software tools in return for mind share and Internet dominance; Microsoft has earned its market dominance the old fashioned way, by building and selling its products at healthy margins to the vast majority of enterprise IT buyers.

    Microsoft's enterprise platform as a service offerings are deep and robust, and they have been executing on their vision quickly and effectively over the past several years. It seems to me, as an observer, that they have taken stock of their strengths and are playing to them.

    It took them a while to wind down their inadequate Windows Mobile efforts, but they finally seem to get that a Windows emulation that doesn't run "real" windows will never be successful.

    But the accounts we have, their next foray will be with a mobile version that runs the millions of Windows applications. It's also unlikely that it will be in the phone from factor.

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    That's an accurate account. Microsoft is more appealing to people who make stuff, and who do stuff, who game - the power stuff.

    To people who merely consume passive content, and social network, its less appealing. They are two incompatible approaches, the essentially freemium android model, and the premium Microsoft model. One doesn't want a low development funding on premium software, nor ad funding models. For face book or google search that works fine, and a pay structure wouldn't work.

    I think the incoming new incarnation of windows mobile, will be different, software wise. It will definitely run desktop applications. It will definitely run on ARM 64. It may also run on x86. It may be an entirely new fork of the OS, and they might even abandon the previous incarnation (or not).

    The form factor they'll demo it on? Hard to tell. They have patented that keyboard case. They have the folding OLED screen patent, but that's probably half a decade off. I know they will want to move it quickly into new form factors, but its hard to know what it will be.

    They also most likely will want the new incarnation to run on more hardware platforms than phones, such as wearables. They have stated their MO for windows is "hardware independent", so it would make little sense re-tooling the small screen incarnation without also increasing its flexibility at the same time.

    We will see. The software is primary.
    04-06-17 11:07 PM
  11. johnny_bravo72's Avatar
    04-07-17 02:29 AM
  12. Trouveur's Avatar
    I am waiting for the Sony Xperia X with Sailfish OS.

    Posted via CB10
    04-07-17 03:23 AM
  13. Drael646464's Avatar
    I was going to recommend Ubuntu, but...
    Canonical's dream for an Ubuntu phone is dead | TechRadar
    That, and its links, were interesting reading. Cool that Ubuntu actually makes money, even if its in primarily invisible things like cars and cloud services.
    04-07-17 03:59 AM
  14. Drael646464's Avatar
    I am waiting for the Sony Xperia X with Sailfish OS.

    Posted via CB10
    Well that was interesting to google. Somehow runs most android apps, and of all things ported Symbian apps.

    What's the appeal for you? Security? Multi-tasking? The open-sourceness?
    Last edited by Drael646464; 04-07-17 at 04:30 AM.
    04-07-17 04:11 AM
  15. Drael646464's Avatar
    faith that the free software for consumer data marketplace is viable over the long term.
    That's an interesting thought, when you consider supply and demand. Data obviously has marketing value, but that value decreases if more people are offering it (competition). And if more people are selling data, rather than product, they themselves will have less value for data.

    I guess what I am driving at, is that the consumer data model, might have unknown impacts economically. If too many people get into the model, it may devalue.

    Of course the other issue is ad blockers. A lot of old good sources of revenue have become unviable because of ad blocking software, and people are certainly losing money. ATM, such companies are typically immediately brought out, in order to control their activity and allow exceptions.

    But singular, monolithic ad blocker, that could deal with most elements of this economy (ads in apps, in search, in the web browser, some elements of data collection, blocking freemium pop ups etc) - it could actually compete with the data gatherers.

    Indeed, a profit gathering market competitor, like say, Microsoft, could develop such a piece of software and thus have no motivation to sell, and every reason to keep the software up to date.
    04-07-17 04:46 AM
  16. stlabrat's Avatar
    I think the incoming new incarnation of windows mobile, will be different, software wise. It will definitely run desktop applications. It will definitely run on ARM 64. It may also run on x86. It may be an entirely new fork of the OS, and they might even abandon the previous incarnation (or not). .
    X50?
    04-07-17 07:41 AM
  17. Drael646464's Avatar
    X50?
    x86 as in the 32 bit intel chipset. We've seen a leak with "windows mobile on ARM" (64 bit) and "windows mobile on x86" (32 bit). If that happens both will be able to run win32. Currently windows mobile only runs on arm (32 bit) and can only run UWP apps.
    04-07-17 08:44 PM
  18. BigBadWulf's Avatar
    x86 as in the 32 bit intel chipset. We've seen a leak with "windows mobile on ARM" (64 bit) and "windows mobile on x86" (32 bit). If that happens both will be able to run win32. Currently windows mobile only runs on arm (32 bit) and can only run UWP apps.

    Excuse my ignorance, but with the mobile world moving to 64 bit processors, why is Microsoft focused on 32, and who is "we"?
    04-07-17 10:19 PM
  19. thurask's Avatar
    x86 as in the 32 bit intel chipset. We've seen a leak with "windows mobile on ARM" (64 bit) and "windows mobile on x86" (32 bit). If that happens both will be able to run win32. Currently windows mobile only runs on arm (32 bit) and can only run UWP apps.
    Atom on smartphones is dead, so you'd have to find someone other than Intel to supply the chips.
    BigBadWulf likes this.
    04-07-17 10:24 PM
  20. Drael646464's Avatar
    Excuse my ignorance, but with the mobile world moving to 64 bit processors, why is Microsoft focused on 32, and who is "we"?
    Win32 are desktop applications. The things no smartphone in the world currently can run. Most desktop applications are 32 bit, or come in 32 bit and 64 bit varieties. People don't tend to only code 64 bit, because then they are leaving out some potential customers.

    The known fact is that windows has developed an ARM emulation with Qualcomm, announced last year, that runs on 64-bit arm processors. The 32 bit intel processor part is a rumour/leak. But it would make some sense on mobile because then windows 10 mobile would be able to run on two platforms, one of which would be native rather than an effective emulation.

    Windows 10's goal is to be hardware independent. That's the long term aim. So they are not really coding for the desktop market only, or the laptop, or the hybrid, or the tablet, not just the smartphone, not just the high end, not just the budget.....they want to create an OS that runs on everything, from your fridge to your mainframe.

    To that end, it would make a lot of sense including 32 bit intel chipsets for windows mobile (if its still called that at the end of this year). I don't think anyone is putting many intel chips in small devices, let alone 64 bit ones. You get lots of 64 bit intel on tablets, and some 32 bit, but not a lot on smartphones.

    But that's not at all the point, of windows 10. As I explained above, its being slowly designed to run on anything it could conceivably run on. Windows want to be the first, or many even the only OS that can do that in preparation for ubiquitous computing AKA the internet of things.
    Last edited by Drael646464; 04-07-17 at 11:12 PM.
    04-07-17 11:00 PM
  21. Drael646464's Avatar
    Atom on smartphones is dead, so you'd have to find someone other than Intel to supply the chips.
    https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/01/intel-5g-mwc/

    Intel's chip design could be used inside some smartphones in 2017

    Not really, but that's not the entire point of making a fork of windows for every type of hardware anyway.

    They'll be starting developing the tiny screen, and screenless versions of windows 10 shortly I imagine, and they'll have to actually develop some of the hardware for that to even run on.

    Microsoft's strategy here is a very future minded one - 'one core' is hardware independent. Once they have a version of windows 10 on every type of hardware, and a bunch of new form factors and categories of devices, windows 10 will be future proofed, designed to tie the IoT together in a way no other system will be able to.

    They are as interested in long plays as short ones.
    04-07-17 11:05 PM
  22. BigBadWulf's Avatar
    Win32 are desktop applications. The things no smartphone in the world currently can run. Most desktop applications are 32 bit, or come in 32 bit and 64 bit varieties. People don't tend to only code 64 bit, because then they are leaving out some potential customers.

    The known fact is that windows has developed an ARM emulation with Qualcomm, announced last year, that runs on 64-bit arm processors. The 32 bit intel processor part is a rumour/leak. But it would make some sense on mobile because then windows 10 mobile would be able to run on two platforms, one of which would be native rather than an effective emulation.

    Windows 10's goal is to be hardware independent. That's the long term aim. So they are not really coding for the desktop market only, or the laptop, or the hybrid, or the tablet, not just the smartphone, not just the high end, not just the budget.....they want to create an OS that runs on everything, from your fridge to your mainframe.

    To that end, it would make a lot of sense including 32 bit intel chipsets for windows mobile. I don't think anyone is putting many intel chips in small devices, let alone 64 bit ones. You get lots of 64 bit intel on tablets, and some 32 bit, but not a lot on smartphones.

    But that's not at all the point, of windows 10. As I explained above, its being slowly designed to run on anything it could conceivably run on.
    I understand Windows. I don't understand planning 32 bit on mobile, when it will be relatively impossible to find a chip to run it.

    I still don't know who we is.
    04-07-17 11:06 PM
  23. BigBadWulf's Avatar
    More to the point @Drael646464 as has been noted several times already, this thread is about where to go from BB10, and you keep talking about Windows mobile. If you're right, it's way to far in the future to wait for. If you're wrong, and I believe based on their track record you are, there is no future. Out of the pan and into the fire.
    howarmat and Fret Madden like this.
    04-07-17 11:10 PM
  24. BigBadWulf's Avatar
    They'll be starting developing the tiny screen, and screenless versions of windows 10 shortly I imagine
    Your imagination far exceeds their execution.
    04-07-17 11:12 PM
  25. Drael646464's Avatar
    I understand Windows. I don't understand planning 32 bit on mobile, when it will be relatively impossible to find a chip to run it.

    I still don't know who we is.
    I don't know who we is either. Perhaps you can be more specific?

    I think I adequately explained that Microsoft is not designing for present markets, nor likely will windows 10 mobile (whatever it becomes called), will most likely not be exclusively for slab smartphones, and also that intel is not out of the smartphone game either.
    04-07-17 11:17 PM
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