01-13-18 03:51 PM
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  1. DonHB's Avatar
    The cheapest conceivable team to provide minimal support for BB10 going forward would be about 30 to 50 million dollars per year.

    Divide that by about 10,000 users, and you'll get $3,000 to $5,000 each.

    Since that is absolutely absurd, you will end up with zero users.
    What hat did you pull that number from?
    stlabrat likes this.
    07-31-17 12:48 PM
  2. conite's Avatar
    What hat did you pull that number from?
    Common Sense plus conservative estimates.

    As I said above, full-blown development was 10 times that figure and required 10 million device sales per year just to break even.
    07-31-17 12:51 PM
  3. DonHB's Avatar
    I am suggesting what could conceivably be considered maintenance. The point is what would extend the life of BB10 for people who would like to avoid the business models of Google/Alphabet, Apple and recently Microsoft while improving the ROI for developers.

    Perhaps add a few people like the person who remarked last week, after I had pulled out my Passport SE, that he missed his BlackBerry and quickly lost interest when I said BlackBerry had switched to Android. That he spent his life in New York City and was unaware of BB10 seems to suggest that those claiming BlackBerry invested appropriately on advertising BB10 may be incorrect.
    Last edited by DonHB; 07-31-17 at 05:27 PM. Reason: The remark was last week!
    07-31-17 01:12 PM
  4. conite's Avatar
    I am suggesting what could conceivably be considered maintenance. The point is what would extend the life of BB10 for people who would like to avoid the business models of Google/Alphabet, Apple and recently Microsoft while improving the ROI for developers.

    Perhaps add a few people like the person who remarked, after I had pulled out my Passport SE, that he missed his BlackBerry and quickly lost interest when I said BlackBerry had switched to Android. That he spent his life in New York City and was unaware of BB10 seems to suggest that those claiming BlackBerry invested appropriately on advertising BB10 may be incorrect.
    What I find amazing is that after months and months, despite all of the volumes of obvious evidence to the contrary, you keep trodding out the same impossible fantasy scenarios.

    07-31-17 01:21 PM
  5. DonHB's Avatar
    When I hear from the horse's mouth I will stop my wishful thinking.
    07-31-17 01:30 PM
  6. BigBadWulf's Avatar
    When I hear from the horse's mouth I will stop my wishful thinking.
    Nothing wrong with wishful thinking, but you could brush up on your horse lip reading skills.
    07-31-17 04:30 PM
  7. DonHB's Avatar
    Nothing wrong with wishful thinking, but you could brush up on your horse lip reading skills.
    It is hard to determine if Radar is using any BB10 code.
    07-31-17 05:01 PM
  8. app_Developer's Avatar
    I am not asking for a huge team, just a 4 or 5 skilled developers
    -ART can be polished and some android apps can work better.
    -webkit browser should be updated, they decide to fork that BSD license browser, so they should update to a new webkit version or at least deliver the previous ported code for the community.
    Why would a highly skilled developer take that job? Developers are in very high demand. We all fight for the good ones every day and we all care very much about making sure the good ones have strong career development and progression. That starts with putting them on successful products.

    So if you put a good developer on a dead end project like this, he or she will go on LinkedIn and find a new job in 3 minutes.
    BigBadWulf and StephanieMaks like this.
    07-31-17 05:07 PM
  9. BigBadWulf's Avatar
    It is hard to determine if Radar is using any BB10 code.
    It doesn't matter. The only point to any wishful thinking is an update to ART, which hasn't happened nor will it. The horse has been clear as a bell about that.
    07-31-17 05:08 PM
  10. drobbie's Avatar
    Why would a highly skilled developer take that job? Developers are in very high demand. We all fight for the good ones every day and we all care very much about making sure the good ones have strong career development and progression. That starts with putting them on successful products.

    So if you put a good developer on a dead end project like this, he or she will go on LinkedIn and find a new job in 3 minutes.
    If there was continued development in BB10 it would be more popular than BlackBerry's adoption of Android. They are both niche products selling few units. At least there would be a choice. My Z30 died. I don't want iOS hence I am stuck with Crapdroid.
    07-31-17 05:16 PM
  11. DonHB's Avatar
    My Z30 died.
    Amazon is selling new Z30s to Prime members for US$129.
    07-31-17 05:37 PM
  12. app_Developer's Avatar
    If there was continued development in BB10 it would be more popular than BlackBerry's adoption of Android. They are both niche products selling few units. At least there would be a choice. My Z30 died. I don't want iOS hence I am stuck with Crapdroid.
    So again, why would a skilled developer put his or her career on hold to work on such a niche product?

    I would turn your statement on BB Android around. If it turns out that BB Android is even less popular than BB10, then I think they will discontinue BB Android also.

    The answer to two failures isn't that they should double down on the first one again.

    *this is IF BB Android phones fail to catch on. We don't know that yet.
    BigBadWulf likes this.
    07-31-17 05:54 PM
  13. eshropshire's Avatar
    So, you have chosen 112 as the number of active users and eshropshire's number for development costs.
    My assumption on cost was just updating the browser and a few other items in the OS. My estimate did not include any work on the Android runtime. Blackberry Limited is not going to touch the runtime and risk getting in a war with Google. BlackBerry Limited has much more to gain by being good partners with Google and zero to gain by updating the runtime. Also, my estimate did not include doing any work to make major upgrades or support new hardware. Cost of creating drivers gets you up to Conite's estimate.

    This is all theoretical. BlackBerry Limited will not be investing money to upgrade BB10. They have many other projects that need investment that are on their current roadmap.
    BigBadWulf likes this.
    07-31-17 06:30 PM
  14. YesAndNo's Avatar
    Me too. I really do.

    Posted via CB10
    07-31-17 06:39 PM
  15. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    Of course BB knows its active user count, but only a small fraction of the BB10 user base would be willing to pay for additional development - and there is no way that there are anywhere near enough of them willing to pay anywhere near enough money to make the project viable.

    Besides, BB isn't interested and they are the only ones who could do it.
    BigBadWulf likes this.
    07-31-17 07:11 PM
  16. markmall's Avatar
    What hat did you pull that number from?
    I agree those numbers are way off. They spend next to nothing now and the OS runs fine. Probably much better than the Hub shell they're putting on their android phones.

    10,000? Right. That sounds closer to be KEYone sales in 2017.

    Posted via CB10
    07-31-17 09:27 PM
  17. conite's Avatar
    I agree those numbers are way off. They spend next to nothing now and the OS runs fine. Probably much better than the Hub shell they're putting on their android phones.

    10,000? Right. That sounds closer to be KEYone sales in 2017.

    Posted via CB10
    That's 10,000 people willing to pay $3000-$5000 per device. This represents about 1/10th the cost of full-blown OS development - so a very, very conservative estimate indeed.
    Last edited by conite; 07-31-17 at 10:45 PM.
    07-31-17 10:32 PM
  18. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    I agree those numbers are way off. They spend next to nothing now and the OS runs fine. Probably much better than the Hub shell they're putting on their android phones.

    10,000? Right. That sounds closer to be KEYone sales in 2017.

    Posted via CB10
    So how much do you think BB should choose to spend on BB10 per year? How much gross revenue and net income per year would BB expect from continuing to support BB10 in your scenario?
    07-31-17 11:05 PM
  19. markmall's Avatar
    That's 10,000 people willing to pay $3000-$5000 per device. This represents about 1/10th the cost of full-blown OS development - so a very, very conservative estimate indeed.
    I thought you meant something else. Sorry.

    Posted via CB10
    08-01-17 04:54 AM
  20. markmall's Avatar
    So how much do you think BB should choose to spend on BB10 per year? How much gross revenue and net income per year would BB expect from continuing to support BB10 in your scenario?
    If they don't sell another device, there is still value in spending money maintaining BB10. This is because doing so enhances the brand among loyalists still using BB10 devices. Not doing so tarnishes the brand.

    How much it's worth spending is another question, but it's more than $0.

    Posted via CB10
    08-01-17 04:57 AM
  21. Huussi's Avatar
    If they don't sell another device, there is still value in spending money maintaining BB10. This is because doing so enhances the brand among loyalists still using BB10 devices. Not doing so tarnishes the brand.

    How much it's worth spending is another question, but it's more than $0.

    Posted via CB10
    BlackBerry is spending more than $0, the app store is up and running and a update is hanging around in the production servers.
    08-01-17 05:19 AM
  22. kvndoom's Avatar
    If they don't sell another device, there is still value in spending money maintaining BB10. This is because doing so enhances the brand among loyalists still using BB10 devices. Not doing so tarnishes the brand.

    How much it's worth spending is another question, but it's more than $0.

    Posted via CB10
    No it's worth less than 0. If the loyalists are never going to buy another BlackBerry phone ("crapdroid! Analdroid! Rah rah rah!") how can there be any value? It's wasted time and resources.

    It's unfortunate for TCL that they have to start the game with the tarnished image left by BlackBerry's failures of the past 4 years. BB10 is toxic sludge that nobody's going to touch.
    08-01-17 06:39 AM
  23. Huussi's Avatar
    It's unfortunate for TCL that they have to start the game with the tarnished image left by BlackBerry's failures of the past 4 years. BB10 is toxic sludge that nobody's going to touch.
    Mostly true, but it's possible that TCL/BBMo will keep this shaitfest going.
    Apart from some of the early units having the screen fall off the K1 seems like a solid first device but we'll have to see if they'll choose to update the OS 2-3 iterations like most reputable manufacturers do, in my opinion this is a must as for BlackBerry (branded) devices you can't just load your indian friends up to date custom ROM's when the OS updates stop.
    08-01-17 07:36 AM
  24. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    If they don't sell another device, there is still value in spending money maintaining BB10. This is because doing so enhances the brand among loyalists still using BB10 devices. Not doing so tarnishes the brand.

    How much it's worth spending is another question, but it's more than $0.

    Posted via CB10
    How much is the minimum to maintain BB10? Since BB no longer sells devices, where does revenue come from to pay for these expenses?

    It's more profitable to let the BB10 loyalists just go away.
    08-01-17 10:50 AM
  25. dpgo's Avatar
    Why would a highly skilled developer take that job? Developers are in very high demand. We all fight for the good ones every day and we all care very much about making sure the good ones have strong career development and progression. That starts with putting them on successful products.

    So if you put a good developer on a dead end project like this, he or she will go on LinkedIn and find a new job in 3 minutes.
    The browsers are opensource. Why not pay to a fundation as Mozilla for a port? Or opera for its chromium fork? Even I am sure that there opensource developers who can port a browser for a not so expensive amount of money (as far as the code still public)

    Posted via CB10
    08-01-17 01:46 PM
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