[Chuck Finley69]

No.

My suggestion was for them to take the exact Priv's casing and design, and stuff a newer processor in it, which conite is fiercely refuting.

But a newer processor is essentially building a new phone. By my simplistic estimates, I’ll bet that would require a redesign of 60-70% of the rest of the internal components and the newer software written for a VKB/PKB instead of just PKB or VKB so concept is visually simple but realistic functional device would be essentially new device from development standpoint.

[Troy Tiscareno]

Even if you could somehow reuse the exact same Priv shell, with zero modifications to the case or PKB assembly (which is highly unlikely), I'd say you're looking at perhaps saving no more than 15-20% of hardware engineering costs, and 0% of software costs. It's really a minor drop in the bucket, and it's all of the other costs that are the real problem for BB Ltd. or any other company who, in theory, would attempt this. Of course, any other company also has to pay the BB licensing fees on top of what the device itself costs, and that's already too big of a problem.

The other thing is that, once former BB users finally leave BB behind for other brands, very few are interested in returning. Having gone through all the turmoil and heartache before, and with many feeling "cheated" in some way having believed in "promises" (real or inferred) that were "broken", once they're done, they're done. And we've seen the very real results of that with sales falling 50% year-over-year. Even if a company was ready to release a new phone - let's call it a Priv II - tomorrow, they could reasonably expect sales to fall 50% from last year, and last year, sales were only 110k or so, which would mean 55,000 phones worldwide this year. That, of course, also assumes that remaining buyers would buy into the less-popular slider form-factor at the same rate they were buying the more-popular Key-series form factor, which is unlikely.

Who is going to take the risk to sell 50k phones, which is probably a generous over-estimation?

[Troy Tiscareno]

And my reply assumes the Priv being Android (again) - if you have to add in the $2B+ costs to go BB10, well, I think you can understand why the costs would be insanely upside down. $2B divided by 50,000 phones means $40,000 in software development costs PER PHONE, which of course doesn't include anything for the hardware itself, marketing, distribution, or profit. And even if you could convince someone that this investment should be spread across 3 years, and that you could somehow assure sales of 100,000 phones over that 3-year period, you're still looking at $20,000 per phone just in software development alone.

Chen was very up-front that BB10 couldn't break even (!) without annual sales of 10M devices, and that won't have changed, because the simple fact is that it takes that many phones sold annually to spread out the cost of software development. When you are selling 50k phones a year (and I doubt you could even get close to THAT number), it is utterly impossible to project a profitable outcome. You'd literally need a multi-billionaire who was willing to inject billions of his own personal money in the project with no expectation of a return "just because" in order to get it off the ground. Any bank or investment firm would laugh you out of their office - IF they were polite.

[grover5]

And my reply assumes the Priv being Android (again) - if you have to add in the $2B+ costs to go BB10, well, I think you can understand why the costs would be insanely upside down. $2B divided by 50,000 phones means $40,000 in software development costs PER PHONE, which of course doesn't include anything for the hardware itself, marketing, distribution, or profit. And even if you could convince someone that this investment should be spread across 3 years, and that you could somehow assure sales of 100,000 phones over that 3-year period, you're still looking at $20,000 per phone just in software development alone.

Chen was very up-front that BB10 couldn't break even (!) without annual sales of 10M devices, and that won't have changed, because the simple fact is that it takes that many phones sold annually to spread out the cost of software development. When you are selling 50k phones a year (and I doubt you could even get close to THAT number), it is utterly impossible to project a profitable outcome. You'd literally need a multi-billionaire who was willing to inject billions of his own personal money in the project with no expectation of a return "just because" in order to get it off the ground. Any bank or investment firm would laugh you out of their office - IF they were polite.

I’m not going to disagree with this. But, I will say that you have been on a mission to be as negative as possible about blackberry for years on these forums. I’m not even a blackberry user. I have an iPhone. I have no idea why you are on this mission but I thought it was worth noting. If this site ever goes away there will be a void you will have to fill by hating desperately on something other than this company.

[goku_vegeta]

I’m not going to disagree with this. But, I will say that you have been on a mission to be as negative as possible about blackberry for years on these forums. I’m not even a blackberry user. I have an iPhone. I have no idea why you are on this mission but I thought it was worth noting. If this site ever goes away there will be a void you will have to fill by hating desperately on something other than this company.

Troy is being pragmatic. Quite honestly BBOS is long gone at this point. It's just not a viable platform in the modern day and age. However something like BB10? Some of the alternative OS devices floating around have implemented some of these features and I think with some major investment, it's still a platform that could become viable. Plus, it doesn't rely on BIS to communicate with the NOC, something that carriers had been on the hook for but really didn't have a choice in supporting at the time given how popular BBOS was.

[grover5]

Troy is being pragmatic. Quite honestly BBOS is long gone at this point. It's just not a viable platform in the modern day and age. However something like BB10? Some of the alternative OS devices floating around have implemented some of these features and I think with some major investment, it's still a platform that could become viable. Plus, it doesn't rely on BIS to communicate with the NOC, something that carriers had been on the hook for but really didn't have a choice in supporting at the time given how popular BBOS was.

I said my bit. I’m an analyst. That’s my analysis. That’s all.

[Chuck Finley69]

I said my bit. I’m an analyst. That’s my analysis. That’s all.

Where does that put me? I’m typically 95% in alignment with Troy but just feel he does a much fairer job explaining the multiple BlackBerry failures and why so many of them would’ve happened regardless because of things beyond the control of BlackBerry, with both the industry and the company.

Keep in mind, I own north of two dozen unique, individual BlackBerry models going back 15+ years. I own at least 3-3-4 duplicate BBOS models and the rest are every BB10 and BBAndroid model produced up to my KEYones that ended my run. Almost 30 BlackBerry and BlackBerry Mobile devices, I don’t think I’m a hater or that even Troy is a hater. BlackBerry was a phenomena that leveled the playing field and even advantaged many small businesses. It’s similar to Harley Davidson or Jeep culture in many unique but passionate fanatics...

[grover5]

Where does that put me? I’m typically 95% in alignment with Troy but just feel he does a much fairer job explaining the multiple BlackBerry failures and why so many of them would’ve happened regardless because of things beyond the control of BlackBerry, with both the industry and the company.

Keep in mind, I own north of two dozen unique, individual BlackBerry models going back 15+ years. I own at least 3-3-4 duplicate BBOS models and the rest are every BB10 and BBAndroid model produced up to my KEYones that ended my run. Almost 30 BlackBerry and BlackBerry Mobile devices, I don’t think I’m a hater or that even Troy is a hater. BlackBerry was a phenomena that leveled the playing field and even advantaged many small businesses. It’s similar to Harley Davidson or Jeep culture in many unique but passionate fanatics...

It puts you in a different place. You haven’t exhibited the same behavior. Like I said before, I don’t disagree but I notice patterns and when patterns become obsessions. That’s it.

[Troy Tiscareno]

Realize that I'm not discussing BB10's technical merits - I'm strictly doing business/financial analysis, and while you and others might not like what the numbers tell us, they represent a hard reality - one that I had nothing to do with.

But when people talk seriously about the "possibility" of BB re-entering the device business, it's clear that they don't understand the financial and business realities of the situation, and those are pretty fundamental to any new business venture.

There's nothing wrong with wishing and dreaming, but when someone starts suggesting that the impossible is possible, and there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary, then you shouldn't be surprised when someone disagrees and tells you why.

It's not personal - it's simply reality. BB doesn't have even a fraction of the money it would require even if it was a business that they wanted to be in - but it isn't. Consumer electronics is a very difficult, high risk, low margin business to be in, and the market is not expanding now, it's consolidating, and many former big names (probably including the name on the smartphone I am typing this reply on right now) will get squeezed out over the next 2-3 years.

I understand that's not what brand fans want to hear - and these same discussions happened on Symbian, WebOS, and WinPhone forums - but at some point you have to accept the reality of the situation. Blaming me might make you feel better for a minute or two, but it won't change reality, and it doesn't mean that I had anything to do with that reality.

I suggest reading the book "Losing the Signal: The Untold Story Behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of Blackberry". It will give you some perspective on how BB got here, and it should be noted that the story more-or-less ends BEFORE the launch of BB10, which tells you that the company was in trouble even before BB10 hit the market - and BB10 was a financial disaster for the company (again, totally separate from its technical abilities as a mobile OS).

[grover5]

Realize that I'm not discussing BB10's technical merits - I'm strictly doing business/financial analysis, and while you and others might not like what the numbers tell us, they represent a hard reality - one that I had nothing to do with.

But when people talk seriously about the "possibility" of BB re-entering the device business, it's clear that they don't understand the financial and business realities of the situation, and those are pretty fundamental to any new business venture.

There's nothing wrong with wishing and dreaming, but when someone starts suggesting that the impossible is possible, and there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary, then you shouldn't be surprised when someone disagrees and tells you why.

It's not personal - it's simply reality. BB doesn't have even a fraction of the money it would require even if it was a business that they wanted to be in - but it isn't. Consumer electronics is a very difficult, high risk, low margin business to be in, and the market is not expanding now, it's consolidating, and many former big names (probably including the name on the smartphone I am typing this reply on right now) will get squeezed out over the next 2-3 years.

I understand that's not what brand fans want to hear - and these same discussions happened on Symbian, WebOS, and WinPhone forums - but at some point you have to accept the reality of the situation. Blaming me might make you feel better for a minute or two, but it won't change reality, and it doesn't mean that I had anything to do with that reality.

I suggest reading the book "Losing the Signal: The Untold Story Behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of Blackberry". It will give you some perspective on how BB got here, and it should be noted that the story more-or-less ends BEFORE the launch of BB10, which tells you that the company was in trouble even before BB10 hit the market - and BB10 was a financial disaster for the company (again, totally separate from its technical abilities as a mobile OS).

Like I said. I’m an iPhone user. I like tech discussions. I said my piece.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Realize that I'm not discussing BB10's technical merits - I'm strictly doing business/financial analysis, and while you and others might not like what the numbers tell us, they represent a hard reality - one that I had nothing to do with.

But when people talk seriously about the "possibility" of BB re-entering the device business, it's clear that they don't understand the financial and business realities of the situation, and those are pretty fundamental to any new business venture.

There's nothing wrong with wishing and dreaming, but when someone starts suggesting that the impossible is possible, and there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary, then you shouldn't be surprised when someone disagrees and tells you why.

It's not personal - it's simply reality. BB doesn't have even a fraction of the money it would require even if it was a business that they wanted to be in - but it isn't. Consumer electronics is a very difficult, high risk, low margin business to be in, and the market is not expanding now, it's consolidating, and many former big names (probably including the name on the smartphone I am typing this reply on right now) will get squeezed out over the next 2-3 years.

I understand that's not what brand fans want to hear - and these same discussions happened on Symbian, WebOS, and WinPhone forums - but at some point you have to accept the reality of the situation. Blaming me might make you feel better for a minute or two, but it won't change reality, and it doesn't mean that I had anything to do with that reality.

I suggest reading the book "Losing the Signal: The Untold Story Behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of Blackberry". It will give you some perspective on how BB got here, and it should be noted that the story more-or-less ends BEFORE the launch of BB10, which tells you that the company was in trouble even before BB10 hit the market - and BB10 was a financial disaster for the company (again, totally separate from its technical abilities as a mobile OS).

I wonder who understands the business and financial realities of the corona virus. Imagine if the entire population had no immunity because they were given genetically identical immune systems (android or ios) with little or no white blood cells...vs one with builtin failsafes......wow that's a reality that might get someone to think about BB10 again....game playing aside....at least some might survive.....with enough time for the vaccine to arrive for the others. All your eggs in two baskets? Three would be better, it has always been the mysterious and mathematical number for stability...two legged stools fallover, three legged ones, much less so.

[Elephant_Canyon]

I wonder who understands the business and financial realities of the corona virus. Imagine if the entire population had no immunity because they were given genetically identical immune systems (android or ios) with little or no white blood cells...vs one with builtin failsafes......wow that's a reality that might get someone to think about BB10 again....game playing aside....at least some might survive.....with enough time for the vaccine to arrive for the others. All your eggs in two baskets? Three would be better, it has always been the mysterious and mathematical number for stability...two legged stools fallover, three legged ones, much less so.

This post is problematic, to say the least. Phones aren't organisms. People aren't phones. Stop trying to draw ridiculous comparisons between a global health crisis and your desperate yearning for the return of a software product that failed half a decade ago.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

This post is problematic, to say the least. Phones aren't organisms. People aren't phones. Stop trying to draw ridiculous comparisons between a global health crisis and your desperate yearning for the return of a software product that failed half a decade ago.

Monopolies and duopolies are always unhealthy.

[conite]

Monopolies and duopolies are always unhealthy.

Duopolies seem to work fine. See Coke/Pepsi, Labatt/Molson, PC/Mac, etc. As long as the two keep at each other's throats, the consumer still wins.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Duopolies seem to work fine. See Coke/Pepsi, Labatt/Molson, PC/Mac, etc. As long as the two keep at each other's throats, the consumer still wins.

Works fine for who? For the monopolist? Sure. But not for the marketplace - hey who wouldn't want to be a monopolist? But no one wants to be dependent on one. Private label is a quasi 3rd presence in the softdrink market and there are other smaller players, Brew/Pubs are a small profitable alternative to the duopoly of the global brewer duopoly, as are the wine/spirits producers. Really you can't make money making beer unless you own the entire global marketplace? That's a fraud. PC/MAC has a linux alternative. Given these examples there should still be a place for BB10 especially given its unique focused design differentiation from the other two.

[conite]

Works fine for who? For the monopolist? Sure. But not for the marketplace - hey who wouldn't want to be a monopolist? But no one wants to be dependent on one. Private label is a quasi 3rd presence in the softdrink market and there are other smaller players, Brew/Pubs are a small profitable alternative to the duopoly of the global brewer duopoly, as are the wine/spirits producers. Really you can't make money making beer unless you own the entire global marketplace? That's a fraud. PC/MAC has a linux alternative. Given these examples there should still be a place for BB10 especially given its unique focused design differentiation from the other two.

Who said anything about monopolies?

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Who said anything about monopolies?

Monopoly, duopoly, similiar probems.....it is just the splitting a single hair (rather than splitting hairs) :-).

[co4nd]

Why do we “need” a third OS in mobile if we already have two? Personally, I’ve always felt needs are met by the system when demand exists, the system will provide. The problem is that barriers to entry and maintenance efficiencies are why there’s only two mobile OS and two full traditional OS available commercially. Apple, Google and Microsoft have typically met those needs. Linux exists for anyone to build a third OS but is their really a need?

Perhaps the better word is that some people “want” a third OS in either category. Unfortunately, that crowd is too small unless forced to use. Perhaps your dreams will be answered by Harmony OS backed fully by the Chinese government. If Android/iOS would be outlawed in China, you have the scale for a third OS but even China doesn’t really want that. Just let that sink in for a minute..

I agree that I don't think we need a third mobile OS. Though it would be nice to have a viable open-source option as Linux provides on the desktop. The only real commercial option I see is Microsoft(again) because eventually, they will be able to run full Windows on a phone.

[Troy Tiscareno]

There are a half-dozen "private label" mobile OSs which you can support. Of course, I'm aware that you don't *really* care about any of the other alternatives. If WinPhone and WebOS were still around and healthy, you would still be making justifications for BB10 and those alternatives wouldn't matter to you. And if BB had somehow gotten a monopoly with BB10, I doubt you'd be arguing for "choice in the marketplace." As long as you had YOUR choice, the rest wouldn't matter to you.

I used to constantly hear from weed enthusiasts about how many things could and should be made from hemp, how paper made from wood was unsustainable, etc. Since weed has been legalized here, I've not heard a single peep from anyone about these issues. Suddenly, the critical shortage of hemp rope, hemp paper, and hemp clothing doesn't seem very important, as long as they can get high when they want. It's almost as if those were just straw-man arguments that they didn't really care about, as long as they got their weed...

[conite]

Monopoly, duopoly, similiar probems.....it is just the splitting a single hair (rather than splitting hairs) :-).

Not really. As long as Google and Apple keep fighting for market share, competition is alive and well.

Don't forget, Android itself is a very competitive marketplace with several players vying for your hardware dollars.

There are also several other projects available to choose from if you wish to stay away from the big two platforms. They may not be economically viable for the mainstream, but they are there.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Not really. As long as Google and Apple keep fighting for market share, competition is alive and well.

Don't forget, Android itself is a very competitive marketplace with several players vying for your hardware dollars.

There are also several other projects available to choose from if you wish to stay away from the big two platforms. They may not be economically viable for the mainstream, but they are there.

From some specific viewpoints it might look that way, but in reality, not at all, there is ios or android. period. stop. (for free market, marketplaces). As for competition....all of them slapping Android on similiar devices means Andriod is an effective monopoly, in some cases a duopoly with ios.....and in the advertising marketplace due to the data slurping potentially even more problematic.

[the_boon]

Lol at people asking for a third mobile OS in an era where we can't even have a second form factor or just a QWERTY underneath the display

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

There are a half-dozen "private label" mobile OSs which you can support. Of course, I'm aware that you don't *really* care about any of the other alternatives. If WinPhone and WebOS were still around and healthy, you would still be making justifications for BB10 and those alternatives wouldn't matter to you. And if BB had somehow gotten a monopoly with BB10, I doubt you'd be arguing for "choice in the marketplace." As long as you had YOUR choice, the rest wouldn't matter to you.

I used to constantly hear from weed enthusiasts about how many things could and should be made from hemp, how paper made from wood was unsustainable, etc. Since weed has been legalized here, I've not heard a single peep from anyone about these issues. Suddenly, the critical shortage of hemp rope, hemp paper, and hemp clothing doesn't seem very important, as long as they can get high when they want. It's almost as if those were just straw-man arguments that they didn't really care about, as long as they got their weed...

If I thought BB10 was junk...I wouldnt at all have been concerned about its demise. The thing is, it isn't , and wasn't. And I didn't discover that until after I used the practically worshipped Iphones and Androids back in the 2012's or something, when I came across the BlackBerry 10 phone. .
In my estimation, the Open Handset Alliance of smartphone manufacturers is a Cartel which Google formed (cartels are supposed to be illegal - for the protection of a healthy marketplace). BlackBerry, Apple, Nokia weren't.

I completely agree with your weed assessment by the way. Some politicians are stuck in the weeds, as it were....or were always in the weeds, when someone or entity came along and recruited them into politics, to further their own agendas.

[conite]

From some specific viewpoints it might look that way, but in reality, not at all, there is ios or android. period. stop. (for free market, marketplaces). As for competition....all of them slapping Android on similiar devices means Andriod is an effective monopoly, in some cases a duopoly with ios.....and in the advertising marketplace due to the data slurping potentially even more problematic.

Not sure how you have addressed the point. There are lots of hardware choices, and two mainstream software choices that are in constant heated battle with each other.

There are other choices out there too if you want to crawl back into your cave. KaiOS, Librem, etc.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Lol at people asking for a third mobile OS in an era where we can't even have a second form factor or just a QWERTY underneath the display

....and all of those needs were satisfied by that 3rd OS provider -BlackBerry. lol.