[John Arnold]

It will take RIM years to catch up to Apple and Google in almost any measure...subs, apps, ecosystem. I took some confidence in the fact that Microsft has always struggled and that RIM is currently in third place. My recent reading about Microsoft, however, has worried me. They obviously have cash, Xbox and patience, but the big news is that...their new phone may be good ( it can multi-task) and they will leverage their installed base of PC users to win over developers. I struggle to think how RIM will take share from these competitors...is RIM taking a knife to a gun fight?

[anon(2757538)]

So you state RIM is 3rd, which they are, but then the title is can they do better than 4th?

You answered your own question?

[iankeiththomas]

Well, the question in the title is technically whether BB10 can do better than 4th place. Right now it's not in any place, because it's not out yet.

And the answer is, sure. BB10 could wind up crushing the competition for all we know. I don't think that's likely, but it could happen.

I don't really think Microsoft's strongholds in other areas of tech are that important when it comes to selling WP8. At least, they're probably negated by the fact that RIM has a bigger presence in the mobile space.

What is important is that Microsoft could lose money on WP8 for the next decade and not bat an eye. RIM can't sustain losses like that.

[Thunderbuck]

If you look at the "multi-task" thing, it's pretty much what iOS does. No difference. Might be managed a little better, but it isn't true multi-task.

Mind you, if the device LOOKS like it's multitasking, most users won't care.

[cfx_will]

Here's the thing with Microsoft. They do have a lot of money and patience but if you look at some of their products both hardware and software:
Windows Mobile: extinct OS for phones
Vista: Everyone hated it. Windows 7 only tried to compensate what Vista could not do.
The Zune music player: supposed to compete with the iPod,
Internet Explorer: the punchline of every browser joke,
Bing: let's be serious here, nobody really wants to use Bing over Google.

Outside of Office and Xbox (maybe Skype? but they bought that) They don't have much more. Take what you want with it. Of course they could potential turn everything around but it's just that they have made mistakes in the past too.

[otacon]

Even the user reviews of Windows 8 is not that encouraging... Thought of upgrading to Windows 8 on my Macbook (running Vmware) but decided not to after reading a few articles.

[bluz]

for me it doesn't matter whether BB 10 is 2nd/3rd or 4th. It should work flawlessly and give a new user experience that none of the other competitors has to offer.

[Gatmyer]

I want windows on my computer not on my phone. For this reason i,m betting bb10 can keep rim in 3rd.

[Cesare21]

It will take RIM years to catch up to Apple and Google in almost any measure...subs, apps, ecosystem. I took some confidence in the fact that Microsft has always struggled and that RIM is currently in third place. My recent reading about Microsoft, however, has worried me. They obviously have cash, Xbox and patience, but the big news is that...their new phone may be good ( it can multi-task) and they will leverage their installed base of PC users to win over developers. I struggle to think how RIM will take share from these competitors...is RIM taking a knife to a gun fight?

Here's another thought, if RIM can perfect their Android emulator on BB10, then a user gets access to both BB10 and Android apps. As for the ecosystem, it will start building on its own (with NFC getting bigger) and you forget RIM's trump card, their NOC.

[GTiLeo]

It's hard to say why people choose BB nowadays, but I see a lot of people with BBs and I also have one, because of the keyboard, but when it comes to OS, nothing beats Android today.

And that's a comment that depends on who you talk to. Android eventually bogs down when loaded it takes a bit to get it customized to how the user wants it and nor is it as easy as iOS so for some iOS is the best

[Gatmyer]

Here's another thought, if RIM can perfect their Android emulator on BB10, then a user gets access to both BB10 and Android apps. As for the ecosystem, it will start building on its own (with NFC getting bigger) and you forget RIM's trump card, their NOC.

Excellent point. We'll see what happens.

[Roo Zilla]

Outside of Office and Xbox (maybe Skype? but they bought that) They don't have much more. \.

Microsoft is composed of 5 divisions and their rough revenue numbers (and rough profit numbers from memory) from their most recent quarter are as follows:

Windows and Windows Live: 4B (2B)
Enterprise: 5B (2B)
Business: 6B (4B)
Online Services: 700M (-6B)
Entertainment: 1.8B (250M)

As you can see, the Enterprise division is actually quite significant, and accounts for about 27-28% of their revenues. Enterprise division is composed of servers and enterprise tools like Windows Server, SQL Server, and Exchange. Entertainment (responsible for XBox) brings in about an eighth of the profits of Enterprise division. Business brings in the most revenue and profit, which is responsible for MS Office.

[ubizmo]

Mind you, if the device LOOKS like it's multitasking, most users won't care.

That's exactly right. If they were bothered about it, iOS would be a failure.

I owned a WP7 phone, and found the experience pretty good, though not good enough to keep it longer than three months. Battery life was quite good, probably due to the "faux" multitasking. The things that bothered me might not bother many others. For example, I couldn't zoom and reflow text in the browser, the way I can in BBOS and Android. But I have old eyes (as old as the rest of me, in fact) and I like to be able to zoom to a nice readable size and not have to scroll back and forth to read things. This works well on my 9900, and on my Samsung Galaxy Blaze (especially using Opera). It doesn't work on the iPhone, so this is another thing that not so many people care about.

If WP8 is going to get any significant traction, there should be signs of it well before BB10 drops. I think integration with Windows 8 is going to be very attractive, but the devil is in the details. If there are any serious snafus in WP8, RIM will have a few months to learn from them.

[richardat]

Here's the thing with Microsoft. They do have a lot of money and patience but if you look at some of their products both hardware and software:
Windows Mobile: extinct OS for phones
Vista: Everyone hated it. Windows 7 only tried to compensate what Vista could not do.
The Zune music player: supposed to compete with the iPod,
Internet Explorer: the punchline of every browser joke,
Bing: let's be serious here, nobody really wants to use Bing over Google.

Outside of Office and Xbox (maybe Skype? but they bought that) They don't have much more. Take what you want with it. Of course they could potential turn everything around but it's just that they have made mistakes in the past too.

You're absolutely correct....and of course, remember that Office was no great-shakes for YEARS, but slowly improved, stole features from others, and eventually became a useable product...but they simply relied on OS leverage/money to muscle Office in. The Xbox was a 2nd rate console in technology and 4th rate in design (who KNOWS how many of those things were defective), but again....they used money to muscle their way. In the entire HISTORY of MS they have never delivered a knock-em-dead, polished, product the first time out....and usually never. That's an astounding thing when you look the money, resources, and talent they've bought up.

Yes, WIn 8 is a fail, and Surface/RT is a genuine dud....winphone 8 is actually relatively good. A solid product, though again, what they're doing with the apps is beyond bizarre....and as I've stated for years...never underestimate MS ability to screw up. I would actually say, going from disaster to competent: Surface/RT/Windows 8/WP8

However, the OP is right to worry. Multitasking (which is a red-herring) aside, MS can't afford to pull out. They have to be in this for the long haul, they have to bet the entire company on this. For the first time, events of the last 5 years have meant that not only does Windows not run the entire (yes, not literally entire) computer industry....but it's actually possible to imagine it's eventual collapse. They can't afford to dabble in other markets now....in that sense, they are in as desperate a situation as RIM. The difference is, they have oodles of money, and quite a bit of time to make it work, and get in there one way or another.

If they actually became #4 behind RIM, and felt that this was a huge problem, they could simply buy RIM and dismantle it! I'm sure though they don't even see RIM as that kind of a threat right now. They see themselves as a big boy and they're going to use all their power and might to muscle in over the long-haul.

[shingi_70]

How are windows 8 and surface failures?

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