02-14-17 12:33 AM
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  1. app_Developer's Avatar
    You are still making presumptions. Chen didn't know how the Android business was going to work. As it turns out, they aren't even designing the devices now and are just licensing. We also don't know when Blackberry decided to stop BB10 devices for good. The mix of devices was not even 25-percent when he made this lowered bar.
    Only in some fantasy world were they still thinking about new BB10 devices at that point. In the real world that most of us live in, they were laying off BB10 staff by the hundreds by then.

    Again, this has nothing to do with what Chen did or did not know, or what he did or did not understand. Or when he understood these things.

    Let's go back to the actual point at hand: Moving to Android significantly reduces their fixed costs. Google pays for the development of the operating system. All BB has to do is their particular modifications. Google pays for the operation of services like notifications, etc. Google pays for the Play Store. Qualcomm pays for the drivers for all the new SoC and makes them available before the SoC's even ship.

    All of these significantly reduce the fixed cost of running this business. For the breakeven point to fall by half after that is perfectly reasonable. Then BB went even further to reduce the fixed costs by moving to the licensing model.

    BB10, on the other hand, was and is economically impossible.
    01-28-17 06:22 PM
  2. JSmith422's Avatar
    The number didn't change because Chen switched to decaf.

    Do you not see how the breakeven point would be significantly less with Android instead of BB10.

    Cost of development/ops of Android < cost of development/ops of BB10

    Therefore, the breakeven point would be lower, assuming similar ASP. It's not difficult to work out.
    I see your point, but I think it actually serves to illustrate WHY bb10 is so important. Obviously Blackberry's development cost is lower where they don't have to build the OS. It's given to them by Google. But why is Google giving it away for free? It's not because they're just nice guys. They profit from the end-user using the OS.....through data mining.

    If you didn't pay for the product; then YOU are the product.

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 06:22 PM
  3. markmall's Avatar
    That's everything from developers, managers, buildings, support infrastructure, distribution infrastructure, etc. $100 million is cheap.
    Under Chen? Chen would make them bring their own coffee and toilet paper. How many managers do you need to supervise well-paid programmers sustaining an existing OS? How many BB10 software managers do you think there are now?

    If you wanted to further build out the OS, then you need higher level managers to think through strategy decisions, marketing decisions, etc.
    elfabio80 likes this.
    01-28-17 06:24 PM
  4. thurask's Avatar
    Yes, and it's interesting that one of the first things Chen did was try to monetize BBM by selling stickers. Complete non sequitur for what BBM and Blackberry are about.
    BlackBerry consumers in Africa and Asia (i.e. where BBM still had relevance) don't/didn't seem to have rods up their backside about "productivity", they used BIS because it was easier than regular data and BBM had cachet and exclusivity, at the time.

    The rise of Android, better messengers and infrastructure that obsoleted BIS meant the end of BBM's and BlackBerry's dominance in those places, but not totally; consider the specific BlackBerry phones for Southeast Asia, like the upcoming joint venture device.
    anon(9803228) likes this.
    01-28-17 06:25 PM
  5. JSmith422's Avatar
    This is Spartaaaa

    Bb10 is now like those 300, love to die then to be slaved

    Posted via CB10
    Haha, there is truth in that about bb10 users. And just so we're clear, you're likenening android and IOS users to slaves? I agree. Haha. =)

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 06:30 PM
  6. markmall's Avatar
    BlackBerry consumers in Africa and Asia (i.e. where BBM still had relevance) don't/didn't seem to have rods up their backside about "productivity", they used BIS because it was easier than regular data and BBM had cachet and exclusivity, at the time.

    The rise of Android, better messengers and infrastructure that obsoleted BIS meant the end of BBM's and BlackBerry's dominance in those places, but not totally; consider the specific BlackBerry phones for Southeast Asia, like the upcoming joint venture device.
    It's nice that in 2013 Chen was focused on the tween market in Nigeria.
    01-28-17 06:31 PM
  7. Soulstream's Avatar
    It's nice that in 2013 Chen was focused on the tween market in Nigeria.
    And on what market should have they focused on? Western markets were dominted by iOS/Android and had become pretty app centric.
    01-28-17 06:34 PM
  8. JSmith422's Avatar
    Educated guess. I erred on the low side.
    Yeah, we're going to have to agree to disagree on those numbers. That may have been true during initial development, but you have a stable build OS now. You're looking at burning a billion dollars a year to update it? I'd like to see your math on that.

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 06:34 PM
  9. Emaderton3's Avatar
    Haha, there is truth in that about bb10 users. And just so we're clear, you're likenening android and IOS users to slaves? I agree. Haha. =)

    Posted via CB10
    Perhaps we are the ones since we are holding on to a dying entity with full loyalty and no questions.

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 06:35 PM
  10. JSmith422's Avatar
    That's everything from developers, managers, buildings, support infrastructure, distribution infrastructure, etc. $100 million is cheap.
    See, that's antiquated thinking though....there's a ton of fat in that because you don't need all of that to develop an OS. There's other channels to do things over that provide similar functionality at a fraction of the cost. It's the 80/20 law. You can provide 80% of everything you just named, for 20% of the cost.

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 06:41 PM
  11. thurask's Avatar
    It's nice that in 2013 Chen was focused on the tween market in Nigeria.
    If they're the only ones buying, then...
    01-28-17 06:44 PM
  12. JSmith422's Avatar
    I think you are right. The problem is that the definition of productivity has changed. It used to be phone+SMS+email. Now apps are added into the mix. Even if for a moment we assume that BB10 does email+phone+SMS the best, the other OSs are not that far behind. On the other hand BB10 is very far behind in terms of apps.

    In short, it doesn't matter if BB10 is a 10/10 in terms of communication if it is a 2/10 in terms of apps. iOS/Android may be an 8/10 (and with a little bit of searching through Play store, it can become at least a 9/10) in terms of communication but are a 10/10 in terms of apps.
    Apps define productivity in today's world for consumers.....but even that's myopic in scope to believe they always will. How many businesses do you known use a Chase banking app to manage their accounts? I know of none. Apps will become a thing of the past eventually. I'm not trying to sell 10mm units to consumers. I want to sell 1mm units to business professionals. When you take that into account, the app gap is much much much smaller and probably closable.



    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 06:52 PM
  13. Emaderton3's Avatar
    Apps define productivity in today's world for consumers.....but even that's myopic in scope to believe they always will. How many businesses do you known use a Chase banking app to manage their accounts? I know of none. Apps will become a thing of the past eventually. I'm not trying to sell 10mm units to consumers. I want to sell 1mm units to business professionals. When you take that into account, the app gap is much much much smaller and probably closable.



    Posted via CB10
    The business user has evolved and wants apps too, even if they are for fun. And businesses now use social media. Even the goverrnment--the National Institutes of Health does Facebook broadcasts. In research, many companies communicate via social apps.

    Posted via CB10
    anon(9803228) likes this.
    01-28-17 06:54 PM
  14. JSmith422's Avatar
    Yes, and it's interesting that one of the first things Chen did was try to monetize BBM by selling stickers. Complete non sequitur for what BBM and Blackberry are about.
    Yeah. We use BBM, but our business has never used a sticker. Not even once. It's the tool/toy debate. Are you buying a John Deer to plow your field or are you Hank Hill mowing your back yard?

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 06:55 PM
  15. Nguyen1's Avatar
    NIH? Boy, I remember the days when I could just walk on campus and walk into any building and even go upstairs right into the labs and say hi. No passes, no guards, nothing.

    No one was issued any government phones at all of any sort back in those days.

    The Guide is definitive. Reality is frequently inaccurate.
    01-28-17 07:03 PM
  16. Soulstream's Avatar
    Apps define productivity in today's world for consumers.....but even that's myopic in scope to believe they always will. How many businesses do you known use a Chase banking app to manage their accounts? I know of none. Apps will become a thing of the past eventually. I'm not trying to sell 10mm units to consumers. I want to sell 1mm units to business professionals. When you take that into account, the app gap is much much much smaller and probably closable.



    Posted via CB10
    Maybe apps will be gone, but for now they are here to stay.

    The time and money invested into BB10 was in order to sell multiple tens on million of devices. If they had planned to sell just 1 million devices/year they had two options:
    1. invest much less in BB10 development at which point it might not even result in the current OS but even a more bare-bones approach
    2. sell them at over 2000; at this price even fewer companies would have bought BB10.

    You just cannot have it both ways.
    01-28-17 07:04 PM
  17. JSmith422's Avatar
    Perhaps we are the ones since we are holding on to a dying entity with full loyalty and no questions.

    Posted via CB10
    I agree I'm (currently) holding a dying entity.....but our business is asking lots of questions, and is hardly brand loyal. What we want, what we expect, is that there is someone who understands the challenges facing business today and designs solutions to meet those challenges. That used to be Microsoft for us. When MSFT dropped the ball we moved to blackberry. And we'd gladly move to another provider if they could provide adequate solutions. The problem now is our only choices are retrofit consumer grade "solutions" that are clunky and ill suited at best. If there was an IOS PRO division, or Google said pay us X amount per month for Android Pro, and we won't collect ANYTHING from the device, we'd move.

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 07:05 PM
  18. JSmith422's Avatar
    The business user has evolved and wants apps too, even if they are for fun. And businesses now use social media. Even the goverrnment--the National Institutes of Health does Facebook broadcasts. In research, many companies communicate via social apps.

    Posted via CB10
    Agreed on the social media. But that's what, 5 apps?

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 07:08 PM
  19. markmall's Avatar
    I agree I'm (currently) holding a dying entity.....but our business is asking lots of questions, and is hardly brand loyal. What we want, what we expect, is that there is someone who understands the challenges facing business today and designs solutions to meet those challenges. That used to be Microsoft for us. When MSFT dropped the ball we moved to blackberry. And we'd gladly move to another provider if they could provide adequate solutions. The problem now is our only choices are retrofit consumer grade "solutions" that are clunky and ill suited at best. If there was an IOS PRO division, or Google said pay us X amount per month for Android Pro, and we won't collect ANYTHING from the device, we'd move.

    Posted via CB10
    What business sector are you in? I also think there must be millions of potential sales in certain industries and was saddened that Chen would not aggressively pursue these markets. He acted as though he would, but he clearly did not.

    The fact that Chen licenses out everything should tell us all we need to know: Chen doesn't know how to execute. The problem was not necessarily BB10.
    elfabio80 likes this.
    01-28-17 07:12 PM
  20. JSmith422's Avatar
    Maybe apps will be gone, but for now they are here to stay.

    The time and money invested into BB10 was in order to sell multiple tens on million of devices. If they had planned to sell just 1 million devices/year they had two options:
    1. invest much less in BB10 development at which point it might not even result in the current OS but even a more bare-bones approach
    2. sell them at over 2000; at this price even fewer companies would have bought BB10.

    You just cannot have it both ways.
    That may have been the plan at the time. But the fact remains that investment money is gone. How you focus on it moving forward is what makes the difference. Blackberry isn't going to sell millions of devices anytime in the next 5 years, EVEN if they were to invent something game-changing like the iPhone in 2007. It takes time to build inertia. The only viable plan was and continues to be 1mm devices and below. There isn't a market for anything else. But even that is a nice business if it's properly structured. Blackberry needs to stop trying to be what they were in the late 2000's and focus on who they are today, and build for tomorrow with the very solid product they currently have. They keep throwing these unrealistic hail marys.

    Posted via CB10
    markmall likes this.
    01-28-17 07:15 PM
  21. app_Developer's Avatar
    Agreed on the social media. But that's what, 5 apps?
    Where I work we have more than 25 apps for different functions of the business. There are very few jobs you can do well without using at least 1.

    It would also be really hard to take a campus bus, or join a secure conference call.
    01-28-17 07:17 PM
  22. app_Developer's Avatar
    I see your point, but I think it actually serves to illustrate WHY bb10 is so important. Obviously Blackberry's development cost is lower where they don't have to build the OS. It's given to them by Google. But why is Google giving it away for free? It's not because they're just nice guys. They profit from the end-user using the OS.....through data mining.

    If you didn't pay for the product; then YOU are the product.
    So what are BBRY shareholders expected to do about that? Risk billions more going after the small number of people who aren't comfortable with advertising based business models?
    01-28-17 07:21 PM
  23. JSmith422's Avatar
    What business sector are you in? I also think there must be millions of potential sales in certain industries and was saddened that Chen would not aggressively pursue these markets. He acted as though he would, but he clearly did not.

    The fact that Chen licenses out everything should tell us all we need to know: Chen doesn't know how to execute. The problem was not necessarily BB10.
    We're in private equity with interests in a number of disparate regulated industries. We want privacy and security so we don't have to worry about compliance (it's just too expensive) ......but we still need to operate a very fast moving business with efficient tools. With the exception of a small app gap, BB10 blows away IOS for efficiency for and productivity. Android just seems to leak too much.....its like filling up a colander with water.

    For us, hardware isn't really the issue. It needs to look nice and a little sexy when sitting down with other executives....devices have sorta become accessories to your suit....but if the internals are the same as a Samsung Galaxy (the ones that didn't explode) or an iPhone, businesses don't care. Add in your hardened equipment and that's great from a hardware perspective. But the OS definitely has to perform and contribute to profitability.



    Posted via CB10
    01-28-17 07:30 PM
  24. JSmith422's Avatar
    Where I work we have more than 25 apps for different functions of the business. There are very few jobs you can do well without using at least 1.

    It would also be really hard to take a campus bus, or join a secure conference call.
    25 apps? What exactly do you need 25 apps for?

    Posted via CB10
    markmall likes this.
    01-28-17 07:31 PM
  25. Soulstream's Avatar
    That may have been the plan at the time. But the fact remains that investment money is gone. How you focus on it moving forward is what makes the difference. Blackberry isn't going to sell millions of devices anytime in the next 5 years, EVEN if they were to invent something game-changing like the iPhone in 2007. It takes time to build inertia. The only viable plan was and continues to be 1mm devices and below. There isn't a market for anything else. But even that is a nice business if it's properly structured. Blackberry needs to stop trying to be what they were in the late 2000's and focus on who they are today, and build for tomorrow with the very solid product they currently have. They keep throwing these unrealistic hail marys.

    Posted via CB10
    They might be able to do so, but such a BB10 approach would result only in minimal upgrades over the years on the software side. So all updates would be like 10.3.3: yes, it's an update, but it brings almost nothing new.

    Such an approach would bring nothing new, it would just be small updates over the years while every other OS moves truly forward in their own way.
    01-28-17 07:34 PM
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