[conite]

Then for sales growth TRENDS, Blackberry Limited went up a number of quarters. BBMo we aren't certain about because we have no hard data. However, the data we do have suggests anemic growth at best that doesn't come close to Blackberry Limited's losses on their worst day.

Sure. Reduce the scale enough and BlackBerry sales went up and down every day. I pick year-over-year because it flushes out the noise.

I also picked year-over-year because Mahieu provided a year-over-year number.

[bb10adopter111]

Sure. Reduce the scale enough and BlackBerry sales went up and down every day. I pick year-over-year because it flushes out the noise.

I also picked year-over-year because Mahieu provided a year-over-year number.

Year over year is the only metric that managers and investors really care about.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[Zidentia]

Then for sales growth TRENDS, Blackberry Limited went up a number of quarters. BBMo we aren't certain about because we have no hard data. However, the data we do have suggests anemic growth at best that doesn't come close to Blackberry Limited's losses on their worst day.

The real problem here is that there is no such thing as a"trend" as a sales goal or in a PL. "Trend" as a term is a verbal slight of hand to distract the analysts, press and consumer. A CEO uses the term in the following fashion:
"We see a positive growth trend in the widget A category over 2017." What this could mean is Widget A was forecast to sell 5 units in 2018 versus a goal of 3 units in 2017
They may have sold one in 2017 and 3 in 2018 but they still have missed goal and costs have not stabilized to a profit generating position.

The YOY number as well as quarterly reports are essential as a metric because this is what you take to your managers and BOD to show growth. And generate continued support. The other problem with comparing BB with TCL is the product itself. BB had an entire product category in BB10 including hardware. The may have had uptick in sales on certain models but the category was declining YOY and there was no way to paint the pig any better. TCL most likely treats phones as a category and the BlackBerry license as a feature aspect to certain models. They can have inconsistent numbers on certain models but they have growth in the phone unit overall so it allows for less pressure on specific skus and the opportunity to spin the out look somewhat.


Posted via CB10

[bb10adopter111]

The real problem here is that there is no such thing as a"trend" as a sales goal or in a PL. "Trend" as a term is a verbal slight of hand to distract the analysts, press and consumer. A CEO uses the term in the following fashion:
"We see a positive growth trend in the widget A category over 2017." What this could mean is Widget A was forecast to sell 5 units in 2018 versus a goal of 3 units in 2017
They may have sold one in 2017 and 3 in 2018 but they still have missed goal and costs have not stabilized to a profit generating position.

The YOY number as well as quarterly reports are essential as a metric because this is what you take to your managers and BOD to show growth. And generate continued support. The other problem with comparing BB with TCL is the product itself. BB had an entire product category in BB10 including hardware. The may have had uptick in sales on certain models but the category was declining YOY and there was no way to paint the pig any better. TCL most likely treats phones as a category and the BlackBerry license as a feature aspect to certain models. They can have inconsistent numbers on certain models but they have growth in the phone unit overall so it allows for less pressure on specific skus and the opportunity to spin the out look somewhat.


Posted via CB10

Yes. The metrics that managers use to facilitate internal investment and decision-making are not the same are rarely broken out by model since the business doesn't care which widget it sells to make money. Moreover they have very few incentives to share sales by model, as that would effectively give free market research data to competitors! We are free to infer all we want from the available data, but apples to apples comparisons are rarely possible.

In the US, Verizon picking up the KEY2 LE is a good sign that there is visible demand from businesses. AT&T skipping the KEY2 and KEY2 LE is could mean either that KEYone sales were disappointing on that AT&T simply skipped a year believing that most of their potential buyers had already picked up a KEYone and wouldn't upgrade in the first year.

One critical thing to note is that BlackBerry Mobile / TCL can almost certainly can break even on fewer units that BlackBerry Limited ever could because they have economies of scale across other product lines.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[DonHB]

Those people who wish BBW and BBM to continue would you be ready to subscribe to them as a package?

Maybe, somewhere between the cost of Hub+ and a cloud storage solution (software backup)?

[JOaBlackberryBold]

To make sure I'm all caught up on this. This just means use sideloaded .apk apps right?

[bb10adopter111]

To make sure I'm all caught up on this. This just means use sideloaded .apk apps right?

Largely yes. If that works for you, you should be able to restore your phone and reload your apps. But for those of us who can't or don't want to run sideloaded apps, it's a big deal.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

BBID tokens expire after one year.

So in fact I think BlackBerry would/should have to be explicit in stating the whole development environment, documentation etc will also be shut down, not just BlackBerry World, as the two aren't exactly the same thing. Private development wouldn't touch BBW anyways. I'd like to see them stay open, with any debug-tokens and expiry dependencies removed - or operation thereof continued. I doubt they take up any resource time or money...or a negligible amount at best. How will one possibly measure the progress of BB migrating bb10 like features on to BBAndroid without having the golden yardstick of BB10 to compare.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Those people who wish BBW and BBM to continue would you be ready to subscribe to them as a package?

Maybe, somewhere between the cost of Hub+ and a cloud storage solution (software backup)?

Yes.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

So they should stop providing new ones now.

no.

[conite]

Those people who wish BBW and BBM to continue would you be ready to subscribe to them as a package?

Maybe, somewhere between the cost of Hub+ and a cloud storage solution (software backup)?

Just curious, what is the most you would be willing to pay? And of the roughly 100,000 users left by the end of the year, how many of those do you think would be willing to pay that also?

Keep in mind it would cost, at a bare bones minimum, 10 million dollars per year to support and maintain the infrastructure. It would be double that if you also wanted to maintain the developer portals and related infrastructure.

[thurask]

no.

You're right, they should have stopped providing new ones on December 31, 2018.

[bb10adopter111]

So in fact I think BlackBerry would/should have to be explicit in stating the whole development environment, documentation etc will also be shut down, not just BlackBerry World, as the two aren't exactly the same thing. Private development wouldn't touch BBW anyways. I'd like to see them stay open, with any debug-tokens and expiry dependencies removed - or operation thereof continued. I doubt they take up any resource time or money...or a negligible amount at best. How will one possibly measure the progress of BB migrating bb10 like features on to BBAndroid without having the golden yardstick of BB10 to compare.

You say they should "have to" be explicit in what they say about the dev environment. What does that mean, exactly?

As far as I know, BlackBerry is constrained only by law and their contractual obligations. If there is no applicable law, and BlackBerry has no contractual obligations to be explicit, they are free to say, or not say, whatever they wish.

Considering that BB10 was a commercial disaster, we should give BlackBerry some credit for having kept the shop open as long as they have. I'm going to get 6.5 years of supported use for my Z10. That's better than my iPad, iPhones or any Android phone ever. Sure there's been some degradation of performance, but the core functions of email, contact management, calendar, etc. work perfectly.

I can only dream that my KEYone will still be as useful in 2024!


Posted with my trusty Z10

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

You say they should "have to" be explicit in what they say about the dev environment. What does that mean, exactly?

As far as I know, BlackBerry is constrained only by law and their contractual obligations. If there is no applicable law, and BlackBerry has no contractual obligations to be explicit, they are free to say, or not say, whatever they wish.

Considering that BB10 was a commercial disaster, we should give BlackBerry some credit for having kept the shop open as long as they have. I'm going to get 6.5 years of supported use for my Z10. That's better than my iPad, iPhones or any Android phone ever. Sure there's been some degradation of performance, but the core functions of email, contact management, calendar, etc. work perfectly.

I can only dream that my KEYone will still be as useful in 2024!


Posted with my trusty Z10

Merely that BBW is not the same as the entire development environment (bb10 and earlier ones), its only a storefront.....OS reloads, and development are another matter entirely. Not talking just about 1 model z10(which lasted for you and that's great), but the whole ecosystem. BB10 and the underlying QNX is just an entirely too valuable asset to throw completely in the dumpster. Yes there is revenue and there are assets, not always the same, and not always easily directly mappable when it comes to future utilty....that's where visionaries are loosely factored in.

[conite]

BB10 and the underlying QNX is just an entirely too valuable asset to throw completely in the dumpster.

https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03...-cost-fallacy/

[bb10adopter111]

Merely that BBW is not the same as the entire development environment (bb10 and earlier ones), its only a storefront.....OS reloads, and development are another matter entirely. Not talking just about 1 model z10(which lasted for you and that's great), but the whole ecosystem. BB10 and the underlying QNX is just an entirely too valuable asset to throw completely in the dumpster. Yes there is revenue and there are assets, not always the same, and not always easily directly mappable when it comes to future utilty....that's where visionaries are loosely factored in.

If you have a plan to make money from BB10, I'm sure it's not too late to license it from BlackBerry. Money talks. But, unless you line up the money, it's all just wishful thinking.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Just curious, what is the most you would be willing to pay? And of the roughly 100,000 users left by the end of the year, how many of those do you think would be willing to pay that also?

Keep in mind it would cost, at a bare bones minimum, 10 million dollars per year to support and maintain the infrastructure. It would be double that if you also wanted to maintain the developer portals and related infrastructure.

Whoa there.....10million bucks ? even if in Cdn dollars, and double for dev docs? If that much then there must still be tons of activity on those servers...like millions of transactions per day or so. That wouldn't exactly make it dead. So you zip up the documentation and offer as a package like the dev tools themselves, that leaves a one web page website. Register for dev keys as well. Hardly millions in costs. Are you saying there are millions of dollars in annual licensing costs for the deve tools themselves? I'd be hugely surprised if there were any at all, or at that cost projection....unless of course there are still tons of users. In which case an annual access license would then make sense. Of course we don't know the actual numbers about costs so we're both doing a bit of guessing here.
Besides....you do realize that after killing Lotus a long time ago it seems....IBM sold it to an Indian Software outfit recently....that one caught me offguard as it was "long dead "(supposedly).

What exactly are the AWS hosting/Watson costs these days anyways?...per static page hit etc). As for a server rack at HQ or offsite...I'm sure not even that much either.....let's see Godaddy Business....I dunno probably $300/month and stretching things maybe to 1,000/month or so if they went that route (just guessing on the bandwidth requirments though).

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03...-cost-fallacy/

Yes I sat through a bad movie several times...it was called Android.....and no sugar-coated lollipops or cookies made it any more palatable (no disrespect to TCL on this account).

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

If you have a plan to make money from BB10, I'm sure it's not too late to license it from BlackBerry. Money talks. But, unless you line up the money, it's all just wishful thinking.

Posted with my trusty Z10

Money doesn't say a "_amned" thing. Ideas talk....the money follows.

Maybe Blackberry can get a "Green Energy" award and subsidy for not throwing away all that energy and repurposing a basically good OS. Surely a better use of Gov't funds then subsidizing $100,000 electric vehicles? or energy cost increasing Windmills and Solar Farms in most parts of the hemisphere save maybe Arizona and the like.

[conite]

Whoa there.....10million bucks ? even if in Cdn dollars, and double for dev docs? If that much then there must still be tons of activity on those servers...like millions of transactions per day or so. That wouldn't exactly make it dead. So you zip up the documentation and offer as a package like the dev tools themselves, that leaves a one web page website. Register for dev keys as well. Hardly millions in costs. Are you saying there are millions of dollars in annual licensing costs for the deve tools themselves? I'd be hugely surprised if there were any at all, or at that cost projection....unless of course there are still tons of users. In which case an annual access license would then make sense. Of course we don't know the actual numbers about costs so we're both doing a bit of guessing here.
Besides....you do realize that after killing Lotus a long time ago it seems....IBM sold it to an Indian Software outfit recently....that one caught me offguard as it was "long dead "(supposedly).

What exactly are the AWS hosting/Watson costs these days anyways?...per static page hit etc). As for a server rack at HQ or offsite...I'm sure not even that much either.....let's see Godaddy Business....I dunno probably $300/month and stretching things maybe to 1,000/month or so if they went that route (just guessing on the bandwidth requirments though).

I know there are some that believe one developer, an assistant, and a beer fridge in a garage can code and support almost anything, but.....

[bb10adopter111]

Money doesn't say a "_amned" thing. Ideas talk....the money follows.

Maybe Blackberry can get a "Green Energy" award and subsidy for not throwing away all that energy and repurposing a basically good OS. Surely a better use of Gov't funds then subsidizing $100,000 electric vehicles? or energy cost increasing Windmills and Solar Farms in most parts of the hemisphere save maybe Arizona and the like.

Well, since you seem to have the ideas, hopefully the money will flow to you and you can flow it along to BlackBerry to license BB10.

I'm just saying that, unless some money flows to BlackBerry in the form of a licensing agreement offered by a partner with bona fide technical, cybersecurity and financial resources, somehow, someway, in the next few months, the current plan is to turn everything off. No amount of creative ideas or expressed wishes in online forums will alter that trajectory. But a credible vision, business plan and check with 10+ zeros could get it done.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[bb10adopter111]

Yes I sat through a bad movie several times...it was called Android.....and no sugar-coated lollipops or cookies made it any more palatable (no disrespect to TCL on this account).

Lots of us dislike Android, but that won't change the fact that BlackBerry wants nothing to do with BB10 anymore. Just updating the drivers to run on modern hardware could cost $50-100 million, based on the prices paid in 2011-13. And there is no value in developing for a platform for which no new phones can be built or sold.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Well in this thread I'm not necessarily advocating BB paid-for enhancements to BB10...while I believe somebody has the pockets to do this...nobody seems to have anything between the pockets to actually execute it.

What I am advocating for is the public availability of the tools/docs/keys for bb10 beyond the announced closure of BBW, that's quite a difference between the two things being discussed (dumpstering it all, or leaving it available with no announced enhancements, or new hardware (for now)).

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

I know there are some that believe one developer, an assistant, and a beer fridge in a garage can code and support almost anything, but.....

In California, sure....but up there/here in Canada (depending on where you are) unless the garage is heated...development effort in the winter would most likely be frozen.....hence the term a "freeze" in code-release. I believe the proper term in Canada is: in your Mother's basement.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

... bb10 to the dumpster? .....and yet by comparison Tizen lives? What gives? (minus all the its an electronics, Phone and TV giant excuse)
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/0...er_worst_ever/