12-02-16 12:41 PM
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  1. ohaiguise's Avatar
    You avoided my business analysis.

    Of the small subset of remaining BB10 users that are in group C, how many millions should BlackBerry spend on them?
    I think your analysis is pretty flawed. The real question is, how much is the remaining BB10 and BBOS customer base worth? Is it worth spending money to try and retain any of these several million customers?

    Is it really a good business strategy to abandon several million users and simply hope that they'll all buy a BB-branded Android instead?
    09-30-16 12:28 PM
  2. conite's Avatar
    I think your analysis is pretty flawed. The real question is, how much is the remaining BB10 and BBOS customer base worth? Is it worth spending money to try and retain any of these several million customers?

    Is it really a good business strategy to abandon several million users and simply hope that they'll all buy a BB-branded Android instead?
    I'm not proposing a plan. I'm asking for the data that I believe is required to come up with one.

    Group C, specifically, has to be large enough to warrant millions of dollars of expenditure.
    09-30-16 12:32 PM
  3. jwarman's Avatar
    Wasn't there a poll here recently that showed 53% of CBians were still using BB10? I get your point though. BB10'ers are sinking fast.
    Well there will be one less after today as I am leaving BB10. I am sad to leave but at this point the efficiency of the OS and email isn't enough to keep me on it. I am really hoping BB brings the hub and keyboard to iOS.
    09-30-16 12:51 PM
  4. anon(9742832)'s Avatar
    You have the few remaining BB10 diehards (group A). A subset of that feel BlackBerry owes them something (group B). A further subset of that subset would buy another BlackBerry device (licenced or partner) ONLY if they got a more meaningful update than a security patch (group C).

    A > B > C

    So how many people in group C? How many millions would it take to fire up BB10 development again?
    I would like to say there are at least 10 of us using OS 10 maybe as high as 15...........solid numbers............Chen should start up the division right away.........
    Rustiman likes this.
    09-30-16 12:52 PM
  5. settle's Avatar
    I'm not proposing a plan. I'm asking for the data that I believe is required to come up with one.

    Group C, specifically, has to be large enough to warrant millions of dollars of expenditure.
    Does BlackBerry break out their BB10 device sales in their financial reports? Or are all device sales lumped together? I would propose group A is at least anyone who bought their BB10 device as their primary device within the last two (or three at most) years and still using it might be called a diehard. I limited the years because if you sell devices you care much more about those who upgrade their devices more often. Of those, I would argue the vast majority of group B may believe BlackBerry still owes them something giving typical industry support timelines and carrier device upgrade cycles, and that group C is probably within 10% of group B.

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-16 12:53 PM
  6. ohaiguise's Avatar
    I'm not proposing a plan. I'm asking for the data that I believe is required to come up with one.

    Group C, specifically, has to be large enough to warrant millions of dollars of expenditure.


    Who knows?

    As for the costs of developing OS 10, maybe you could ask the developers of FreeBSD, Debian or RedHat how much it costs to maintain an operating system?
    09-30-16 12:58 PM
  7. settle's Avatar
    We can take the upper limit of quarterly device sales to be on average around 500,000 units, so yearly 2.0M units estimate. Best case, but also unrealistic, is 100% of those are BB10. On the flip side you could argue that device sales have been decreasing since the introduction of BlackBerry Android and no new BB10 devices too, but this can give you within an order of magnitude at least.

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-16 01:02 PM
  8. conite's Avatar
    Does BlackBerry break out their BB10 device sales in their financial reports? Or are all device sales lumped together? I would propose group A is at least anyone who bought their BB10 device as their primary device within the last two (or three at most) years and still using it might be called a diehard. I limited the years because if you sell devices you care much more about those who upgrade their devices more often. Of those, I would argue the vast majority of group B may believe BlackBerry still owes them something giving typical industry support timelines and carrier device upgrade cycles, and that group C is probably within 10% of group B.

    Posted via CB10
    OK. 15 months ago (the last time BB10 users were specifically noted) we had 10 million users. Some of those users had multiple devices, some were not actively used at all. So (pure guess), say we we had 8 million unique, active users at that time.

    That number has probably halved over that period (again, an estimate). So that leaves us with 4 million today.

    I can't imagine even half of those feeling butt hurt, but let's say 2 million are in group B.

    Now, of those in group B, how many WILL buy a future BlackBerry Android device ONLY IF they got a real update for their old phone (like 10.4) instead of 10.3.4? My guess is the same as yours - 10%. Now we are at 200,000 users.

    If it costs $100,000,000 to ramp up full blown BB10 development again (most estimates are between $300 and $500 million), that would be $500 per user. Hmmm.
    Last edited by conite; 09-30-16 at 01:21 PM.
    09-30-16 01:08 PM
  9. settle's Avatar
    Oh, I was arguing that group C was 90% of group B (10% wouldn't care they got shafted). That would mean 1.8M users, or about $56 per user following your calculations.

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-16 01:13 PM
  10. settle's Avatar
    So I'm not saying 90% wouldn't buy Android as their next device if BB10 was completely abandoned, just that they wouldn't buy BlackBerry Android. There is not enough compelling differentiation between other Android devices and BlackBerry Android devices, especially as time moves on and Android itself gets more secure.

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-16 01:18 PM
  11. conite's Avatar
    Oh, I was arguing that group C was 90% of group B (10% wouldn't care they got shafted).

    Posted via CB10
    You really think that 90% of people who think BlackBerry owes them something WILL BUY a BlackBerry Android device ONLY IF they get a full blown update to BB10?! Come on. It's closer to 10%. Most BB10 diehards hate Android.
    moyah8 likes this.
    09-30-16 01:18 PM
  12. moyah8's Avatar
    I just got my Passport SE and it's amazing.

    Your argument is invalid.

    Posted from my Passport SE via CB10
    ^^^^^^^^------------- diddo

    Posted via CB10 on my PassportSQW100-4/10.3.2.2876
    09-30-16 01:18 PM
  13. conite's Avatar
    So I'm not saying 90% wouldn't buy Android as their next device if BB10 was completely abandoned, just that they wouldn't buy BlackBerry Android. There is not enough compelling differentiation between other Android devices and BlackBerry Android devices, especially as time moves on and Android itself gets more secure.

    Posted via CB10
    Except BlackBerry only cares if you buy a BlackBerry Android device. That's the number we have to estimate.
    09-30-16 01:21 PM
  14. settle's Avatar
    You really think that 90% of people who think BlackBerry owes them something WILL BUY a BlackBerry Android device ONLY IF they get a full blown update to BB10?! Come on. It's closer to 10%. Most BB10 diehards hate Android.
    Wait, if BB10 diehards hate Android, why would they like BlackBerry Android? It's still Android.

    Posted via CB10
    togarika likes this.
    09-30-16 01:25 PM
  15. conite's Avatar
    Wait, if BB10 diehards hate Android, why would they like BlackBerry Android? It's still Android.

    Posted via CB10
    Correct. Which is why BlackBerry shouldn't spend any more money on them, as it gains them nothing.
    09-30-16 01:27 PM
  16. krazyatom's Avatar
    Smartphone market shares are dominated by ios and android. I can't imagine if there will be another major contender in the future. I hoped bb10 was one of them but app gap was too much. I am also forced to use iPhone or android. BB10 is such a great OS and I hate too see them fade away but I guess rest of the world did not agreed to that.
    YesAndNo likes this.
    09-30-16 01:32 PM
  17. BCGrog's Avatar
    I have a Q10 personal phone, Passport original for work, and a new Passport SE for my new job starting in two weeks.

    Working in civil engineering I need first class email management and document review, SMS, Internet Hotspot for my laptop, flawless blue tooth and a smooth intuitive OS with effortless multitasking.

    BB10 is working just fine in all these tasks and at least for the foreseeable future.

    If I ever want Candy Crush, Snapchat and Whatsapp distractions I will go buy a consumer phone.





    Posted via CB10
    YesAndNo and Michael Dunn1 like this.
    09-30-16 01:34 PM
  18. settle's Avatar
    Correct. Which is why BlackBerry shouldn't spend any more money on them, as it gains them nothing.
    BlackBerry shouldn't spend any money on BlackBerry Android as it's too crowded of a market, not enough obvious differentiation in the hardened OS software or hardware, and they've overpriced themselves. They can't even win over their own diehards. So stick to BB10 a little more that security updates and focus more on Apps and SaaS to get business from Android and iOS users as well as their own BB10 users.

    Posted via CB10
    moyah8 and YesAndNo like this.
    09-30-16 01:37 PM
  19. mitchy_mitch's Avatar
    I lost two solid loyal Blackberry friends this week who have had BB's for 15+ years. They switched to iphone 7's.

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-16 01:39 PM
  20. conite's Avatar
    BlackBerry shouldn't spend any money on BlackBerry Android as it's too crowded of a market, not enough obvious differentiation in the hardened OS software or hardware, and they've overpriced themselves. They can't even win over their own diehards. So stick to BB10 a little more that security updates and focus more on Apps and SaaS to get business from Android and iOS users as well as their own BB10 users.

    Posted via CB10
    They aren't going to spend money on either hardware.

    Partners would have no desire to licence BB10.
    09-30-16 01:42 PM
  21. krazyatom's Avatar
    Blackberry should just make BB10 open source!
    YesAndNo likes this.
    09-30-16 01:45 PM
  22. togarika's Avatar
    Partners would have no desire to licence BB10.
    Why licence BlackBerry version of Android when you can get Android for free? What's the benefit of paying for something that's free when all they promise is security that the consumer market is not interested in?





    BB10 whilst waiting.....
    09-30-16 01:49 PM
  23. ohaiguise's Avatar
    BB 10 devices could be future-proofed if there was somehow a way to upgrade and enhance the Android Runtime. Maybe BB can outsource that, too?

    While their phones weren't a success, Amazon's Kindle Fire tablets are very successful and they have a wonderfully customized, high-performing version of Android.
    YesAndNo likes this.
    09-30-16 01:52 PM
  24. Rustiman's Avatar
    I would like to say there are at least 10 of us using OS 10 maybe as high as 15...........solid numbers............Chen should start up the division right away.........
    I didn't realise there were so many; why didn't you say so before? I'll get Chen on the phone right away.

    Haha that made me chuckle

    Posted via CB10
    anon(9742832) likes this.
    09-30-16 01:52 PM
  25. bnwg's Avatar
    The core business for BB is not OS but is mobile platform solution for business class security that no matter Android, iOS or other OS can use as long as the IT from their clients use their service. B2B business.

    All these BB10 users or whatever are consumers. B2C business.
    09-30-16 01:53 PM
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