11-04-17 10:47 PM
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  1. Invictus0's Avatar
    They must have committed to the imminent successor of the 800.
    Perhaps but BlackBerry was never known to use the latest and greatest in their devices and that was certainly the case with BB10 (the Passport being the exception).

    Either way I think there's still enough evidence out there to show hardware was still a going concern for them, albeit one with far less priority and importance to software. I don't see why they would still close their devices division if they had met their sales targets.
    10-31-17 06:37 PM
  2. conite's Avatar
    Perhaps but BlackBerry was never known to use the latest and greatest in their devices and that was certainly the case with BB10 (the Passport being the exception).

    Either way I think there's still enough evidence out there to show hardware was still a going concern for them, albeit one with far less priority and importance to software. I don't see why the devices division would still be shutdown had they met their sales targets.
    My thesis has been that they were plenty smart enough to know without a shadow of a doubt that they would NEVER be able to re-float that boat. The numbers weren't even close - they were in fact utterly staggering in the opposite direction. I still strongly believe they were just trying to manage a soft landing.

    But we can still be friends!
    Last edited by conite; 10-31-17 at 06:52 PM.
    10-31-17 06:39 PM
  3. app_Developer's Avatar
    Perhaps but BlackBerry was never known to use the latest and greatest in their devices and that was certainly the case with BB10 (the Passport being the exception).

    Either way I think there's still enough evidence out there to show hardware was still a going concern for them, albeit one with far less priority and importance to software. I don't see why they would still close their devices division if they had met their sales targets.
    Because they had burned down the purchase commitments. Once those commitments were satisfied, they no longer needed to be in the hardware business. So then he pulled the plug at the right time.

    If Chen had settled the purchase commitments in cash, it would have cost hundreds of millions more. Instead he made weak lemonade out of the lemons, made some devices for diehard fans, got the fans to essentially pay for the purchase commitments for him, and then got out. He did this with no marketing spend, and very little incremental risk since he owed that money to the same suppliers anyway.
    10-31-17 06:56 PM
  4. Invictus0's Avatar
    My thesis has been that they were plenty smart enough to know without a shadow of a doubt that they would NEVER be able to re-float that boat. The numbers weren't even close - they were in fact utterly staggering in the opposite direction. I still strongly believe they were just trying to manage a soft landing.

    But we can still be friends!
    Friends? Alway!

    But I agree in that the odds were against them, I think even if they stabilized at 5 or 10 million units a year the expectations of many on this forum still wouldn't be met by the type of company that emerged.

    Because they had burned down the purchase commitments. Once those commitments were satisfied, they no longer needed to be in the hardware business. So then he pulled the plug at the right time.

    If Chen had settled the purchase commitments in cash, it would have cost hundreds of millions more. Instead he made weak lemonade out of the lemons, made some devices for diehard fans, got the fans to essentially pay for the purchase commitments for him, and then got out. He did this with no marketing spend, and very little incremental risk since he owed that money to the same suppliers anyway.
    If the hardware division turned a profit, why would they close it? It's also likely they were making new SOC purchases with the 801 and 808 which were 2014 and 2015 SOC's respectively.

    They were marketing new devices as well, they hired a new firm just to market the Passport and Classic. The problem is they simply didn't have the resources or reach to touch their consumer level marketing from their heyday. When Heins announced BlackBerry was leaving the consumer market it had big ramifications for BlackBerry that I'm sure impacted their ability to sell and support devices moving forward. Here's an example from one of their biggest markets,

    But there were also other blunders. He said former BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins's comment that they would exit the consumer market to focus on enterprise customers landed in Indonesia – where the majority of customers were consumers – like "a bombshell" and "destroyed them" here, creating anxiety among both wireless carrier clients and Mr. Cobham's own employees
    https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/rep...ticle21432165/

    Chen was basically tasked with rebuilding their devices division after becoming CEO (and he did). That's a lot of time and resources to invest in a division they only wanted to keep for another year or so.
    10-31-17 07:39 PM
  5. app_Developer's Avatar


    If the hardware division turned a profit, why would they close it?
    Because after the purchase commitments were done, there was no point. Hardware is extemely capital intensive. With the inherent disadvantages that BB has (lack of scale and deteriorating brand) at best they could maybe break even occasionally. For that big win, you tie up a lot of capital. That’s a very poor return.

    Plus to continue they would have had to write new purchase commitments and pile up new inventory (since suppliers won’t work with you otherwise) which would be digging entirely new financial holes.

    Other much better uses of capital are investing in their software businesses, buying back stock (also known as giving shareholders their money back), or even just leaving it in the bank.
    10-31-17 08:22 PM
  6. kvndoom's Avatar
    So @DonHB, have we finally put this to bed?

    Do we agree that Chen was hired specifically to save the company from imminent bankruptcy by shuttering devices after burning through commitments and contracts?

    Do we agree that not one more dollar or second was going to be put into BB10 (or any other nonsense based on Neutrino) that wasn't absolutely necessary to complete said goal?
    Ohh, ooh, let me! I know the answer to this one!

    NO. He won't agree.
    10-31-17 08:56 PM
  7. conite's Avatar
    Ohh, ooh, let me! I know the answer to this one!

    NO. He won't agree.
    glwerry likes this.
    10-31-17 09:47 PM
  8. Invictus0's Avatar
    Because after the purchase commitments were done, there was no point. Hardware is extemely capital intensive. With the inherent disadvantages that BB has (lack of scale and deteriorating brand) at best they could maybe break even occasionally. For that big win, you tie up a lot of capital. That’s a very poor return.

    Plus to continue they would have had to write new purchase commitments and pile up new inventory (since suppliers won’t work with you otherwise) which would be digging entirely new financial holes.

    Other much better uses of capital are investing in their software businesses, buying back stock (also known as giving shareholders their money back), or even just leaving it in the bank.
    I think that's better classified as an advantage for BlackBerry now that they don't have a hardware division versus their motivation a few years ago. We also should keep in mind that BlackBerry unlike other OEM's (who only sell hardware) differed by being able to provide enterprise customers with devices and software to manage them (and I think they might have touted that at some point too).
    10-31-17 10:53 PM
  9. app_Developer's Avatar
    I think that's better classified as an advantage for BlackBerry now that they don't have a hardware division versus their motivation a few years ago.
    What is the advantage?

    We also should keep in mind that BlackBerry unlike other OEM's (who only sell hardware) differed by being able to provide enterprise customers with devices and software to manage them (and I think they might have touted that at some point too).
    But when they stopped selling BB10 hardware, did their EMM sales slow down at all? It seems companies are quite happy to manage their iPhones and Galaxy’s with BB software. That’s good for BB, good for BB shareholders, and less risk for everyone
    10-31-17 11:37 PM
  10. Invictus0's Avatar
    What is the advantage?
    What you wrote about, that they no longer have to deal with hardware and the risks associated with it.

    But when they stopped selling BB10 hardware, did their EMM sales slow down at all? It seems companies are quite happy to manage their iPhones and Galaxy’s with BB software. That’s good for BB, good for BB shareholders, and less risk for everyone
    I think this is one to watch, just how much did hardware support EMM software? I guess we'll have an idea after a few quarters. To BlackBerry's credit, there's more than just EMM behind their software push.
    10-31-17 11:59 PM
  11. conite's Avatar
    What you wrote about, that they no longer have to deal with hardware and the risks associated with it.



    I think this is one to watch, just how much did hardware support EMM software? I guess we'll have an idea after a few quarters. To BlackBerry's credit, there's more than just EMM behind their software push.
    Apple makes up the vast majority of corporate managed devices. Android is next. BB10 barely made a blip.

    BlackBerry UEM still has the second highest market share, and didn't even notice the demise of BB10.
    11-01-17 06:07 AM
  12. stlabrat's Avatar
    "Easily, the most likely reason is Apple's self-driving car project, which the QNX team has been working on for years. It almost certainly has zero to do with phones - Apple is doing just fine there by themselves." - it is certainly not true... there are enough ex-BB phone guys down to CA complain about how expansive the housing market and baby sitter, private school cost that hurt your ears...it is very interesting so much argument about how BB ship sink, even with lost signal published years ago... (not agree some of it... look like the authors prefer to interviewed mouth piece, almost none of the workbees... so the fault were market runs away, etc.etc. ). too big of elephent for people blind folded to assess... I am afraid the lesson will never learned... Sad BB case study.
    i_plod_an_dr_void likes this.
    11-01-17 08:55 AM
  13. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    "Easily, the most likely reason is Apple's self-driving car project, which the QNX team has been working on for years. It almost certainly has zero to do with phones - Apple is doing just fine there by themselves." - it is certainly not true... there are enough ex-BB phone guys down to CA complain about how expansive the housing market and baby sitter, private school cost that hurt your ears...it is very interesting so much argument about how BB ship sink, even with lost signal published years ago... (not agree some of it... look like the authors prefer to interviewed mouth piece, almost none of the workbees... so the fault were market runs away, etc.etc. ). too big of elephent for people blind folded to assess... I am afraid the lesson will never learned... Sad BB case study.
    That's just because they're attempting to use their Canadian rubber funny money to pay for things.... LOL
    11-01-17 09:27 AM
  14. stlabrat's Avatar
    Op, all hope may not be lost in BB10. just look at sony, come back 10 years... you might have BB13 (most likely, not backward compatible).. it will be pricy... no open source, possibly with few extra bones - new features with AI -hopefully, use soul machine with Baby X ;-). https://www.theverge.com/circuitbrea...e-release-date
    11-01-17 09:36 AM
  15. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Op, all hope may not be lost in BB10. just look at sony, come back 10 years... you might have BB13 (most likely, not backward compatible).. it will be pricy... no open source, possibly with few extra bones - new features with AI -hopefully, use soul machine with Baby X ;-). https://www.theverge.com/circuitbrea...e-release-date
    So you're saying BB10 was a dog.... ;-D
    11-01-17 09:42 AM
  16. Invictus0's Avatar
    Apple makes up the vast majority of corporate managed devices. Android is next. BB10 barely made a blip.

    BlackBerry UEM still has the second highest market share, and didn't even notice the demise of BB10.
    It's not necessarily their marketshare but if any EMM customers had chosen BlackBerry specifically for BB10 or BB Android hardware and if that's the case, how competitive can they remain against OEM's like Samsung that also provide EMM?
    11-01-17 09:55 AM
  17. conite's Avatar
    It's not necessarily their marketshare but if any EMM customers had chosen BlackBerry specifically for BB10 or BB Android hardware and if that's the case, how competitive can they remain against OEM's like Samsung that also provide EMM?
    Because according to most rating systems, BlackBerry UEM is the best solution currently on the market.

    I would suspect the vast majority of BlackBerry UEM users don't even know BB10 ever existed.

    https://www.gartner.com/doc/reprints...t=170824&st=sb
    11-01-17 09:57 AM
  18. Invictus0's Avatar
    Because according to most rating systems, BlackBerry UEM is the best solution currently on the market.

    I would suspect the vast majority of BlackBerry UEM users don't even know BB10 ever existed.

    https://www.gartner.com/doc/reprints...t=170824&st=sb
    Agreed and I'm not questioning their offerings, I just think it will be interesting to see how it develops over the next few quarters as EMM is a competitive market.
    11-01-17 10:10 AM
  19. glwerry's Avatar
    That's just because they're attempting to use their Canadian rubber funny money to pay for things.... LOL
    I live in a very remote, rural area.
    A buddy who is in the Hamilton (Ontario) area shared an advertisement - a developer had building lots with frontages of 40, 45 or 50 feet (small) by "up to" 134 feet deep, "starting in the mid-700,000s! I realize that's in "rubber funny" money, but if Ontario is that expensive, what would California be?

    It staggers the imagination - I can see why people are giving up on owning a house!
    11-01-17 10:20 AM
  20. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    I live in a very remote, rural area.
    A buddy who is in the Hamilton (Ontario) area shared an advertisement - a developer had building lots with frontages of 40, 45 or 50 feet (small) by "up to" 134 feet deep, "starting in the mid-700,000s! I realize that's in "rubber funny" money, but if Ontario is that expensive, what would California be?

    It staggers the imagination - I can see why people are giving up on owning a house!
    Similar to California between rural and non rural areas. Florida isn't much better. Texas has some cheaper area because they have a much larger "rural, middle of nowhere". The bigger shock is the need to send kids to private schools and private sports. My biggest expense is my kids school and their club sports every month.
    11-01-17 10:42 AM
  21. neoteredakc's Avatar
    11-01-17 11:07 AM
  22. thurask's Avatar
    From January 2016. You might notice they brought up 10.3.4 releasing later in 2016, which obviously didn't happen.
    11-01-17 11:08 AM
  23. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    This is from almost two years ago. What do you really expect now? The lack of major support until now should be enough to prove its over for BB10.
    11-01-17 11:31 AM
  24. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    If you really want to know what tech has done to California real estate, hop on Zillow.com and look at Cupertino (Apple), Mountain View (Google), or Menlo Park (Facebook), or any of the surrounding cities. Tract homes from the 60s go for $1.4M (NOT rubber funny money) and up. I saw a 400 sq-ft shack selling for $600k, which is what 2000 sq-ft 15 year old houses sell for in the distant suburbs (3 hour commute each way in traffic, though).

    So, yeah.
    11-01-17 11:50 AM
  25. Emaderton3's Avatar
    If you really want to know what tech has done to California real estate, hop on Zillow.com and look at Cupertino (Apple), Mountain View (Google), or Menlo Park (Facebook), or any of the surrounding cities. Tract homes from the 60s go for $1.4M (NOT rubber funny money) and up. I saw a 400 sq-ft shack selling for $600k, which is what 2000 sq-ft 15 year old houses sell for in the distant suburbs (3 hour commute each way in traffic, though).

    So, yeah.
    So all of those companies must pay well!

    Posted via CB10
    11-04-17 09:11 AM
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