[fin2007]

The current offer is 9.
Dude, engage brain before typing.

Posted via CB10

You need do some research first, not me.

Yes, ATT wireless's first offer was $10, and the final offer price was $15, a 50% premium of the initial offer, from 6.x (before takeover rumor) --> 10 --> 15

3Par's initial offer was $18, and the final offer was $33, an almost 80% of premium of the initial offer again.
from $12(before first offer) --> 18 --> 33.

From $9 to $12 is just $33% premium, consider the initial offer did not have much premium at all.

I am not sure If Google would bid for $12 or bid at all, all I am saying is in stock market anything is possible.

[Shanerredflag]

Lol...great discussion, lots of folks interested where this will settle.

Posted via CB10

[FFR]

You need do some research first, not me.

Yes, ATT wireless's first offer was $10, and the final offer price was $15, a 50% premium of the initial offer, from 6.x (before takeover rumor) --> 10 --> 15

3Par's initial offer was $18, and the final offer was $33, an almost 80% of premium of the initial offer again.
from $12(before first offer) --> 18 --> 33.

From $9 to $12 is just $33% premium, consider the initial offer did not have much premium at all.

I am not sure If Google would bid for $12 or bid at all, all I am saying is in stock market anything is possible.

The problem with your research is blackberry's perceived value seems to be diminishing very, very, very quickly.

[RH1Pearl]

12 to 15 Mexican pesos sounds about right

[fin2007]

The problem with your research is blackberry's perceived value seems to be diminishing very, very, very quickly.

I was not comparing BBRY to ATT Wireless or 3Par. If they are comparable, then BBRY's price would be 20+.

I was just saying anything is possible in stock market.

If Google or Samsung is really interested, then $12 per share really means nothing to them, it has nothing to do with the current $7.7 stock price.

[FFR]

I was not comparing BBRY to ATT Wireless or 3Par. If they are comparable, then BBRY's price would be 20+.

I was just saying anything is possible in stock market.

If Google or Samsung is really interested, then $12 per share really means nothing to them, it has nothing to do with the current $7.7 stock price.

Google and Samsung are not interested in blackberry.

If watsa was really bullish on blackberry he would have raised the capital before the announcement, unless he was unable to.

When the z30 flops just like the z10, q10, and q5; blackberry will be in a more vulnerable position.

Can't quite decide if this is a depiction of Thor or prem at this juncture.

[BBNation]

Since Ffx submitted draft offer financing just have been approved

Posted via CB10

[triplekia]

Beggar can't be chooser, at this point they'll be lucky if Fairfax keep their bid of $9 per share.

Posted via CB10

[PeterC4]

A couple of considerations in response to your theory.

1. Not sure you can assume the margin would be 50% as even in BBRY's best days the EBITDA margin was about 27%. Furhter still, conversion costs and integration into new technology will have start up costs.
2. Second, a take over premium of that magnitude doesn't seem to be forthcoming although I wish it would. To drive up the share price to that level you would need significant competition on the take-over bid, or some rationale for higher earnings and market share maintenance. It is not about a particular buyer's ability to pay, but rather, do they need to pay it? It there is topping offer at say $9.20, the board will have little choice but to accept it if no other competing offers emerge. Or the alternative is to reject the offer and see what happens.
3. What I would like to see is BBRY put forward a bonafide case for future sustainable earnings under a new business model and then you might have some more interest.

[fin2007]

A couple of considerations in response to your theory.

1. No sure you can assume the margin would be 50% as even in BBRY's best days the EBITDA margin was about 27%. Furhter still, conversion costs and integration into new technology will have start up costs.
2. Second, a take over premium of that magnitude doesn't seem to be forthcoming although I wish it would. To drive up the share price to that level you would need significant competition on the take-over bid, or some rationale for higher earnings and market share maintenance. It is not about a particular buyer's ability to pay, but rather, do they need to pay it? It there is topping offer at say $9.20, the board will have little choice but to accept it if no other competing offers emerge. Or the alternative is to reject the offer and see what happens.
3. What I would like to see is BBRY put forward a bonafide case for future sustainable earnings under a new business model and then you might have some more interest.

1. wrong, 27% was overall margin, not service margin. In their 10Q, its said service revenue gross margin was like 80-90%, even their quarter it was still 75%, I think I saw it.

2. True, without multiple bids, $12(or even $11) is definitely a ceiling. But I do not think it really matters. The key here is current BBRY's book value is still at $16+, no considering the subscribers/security networks. Do you really believe all those bull**** that BBRY will burn all their cash in the next 6 quarters? With the 4500 headcount cut, I do not think they could burn much cash next quarter, also the component obligation they reduced it from $5.2B to $2.9B in one quarter and did not cost them much cash at all(at most $300M). At worst, they can layoff another 5000 and write down all the left supply contracts, it would not cost them more than 1B.

3. That is what I said, right now only Google/Samsung bidding makes sense, because they have the scale to milk from BBRY's subscribe/service mode. I do not think anyone could be profitable by selling bb phones, the scale is just not there.

[FFR]

Do you really believe all those bull**** that BBRY will burn all their cash in the next 6 quarters?

No.
It will be less than 6 quarters.

After the Christmas quarter, which will be a complete blood bath for blackberry , the decline will accelerate much more rapidly than previously forecasted.

With the 4500 headcount cut, I do not think they could burn much cash next quarter, also the component obligation they reduced it from $5.2B to $2.9B in one quarter and did not cost them much cash at all(at most $300M).

Your just plain wrong.

At worst, they can layoff another 5000 and write down all the left supply contracts, it would not cost them more than 1B.

That would be the end of blackberry.

3. That is what I said, right now only Google/Samsung bidding makes sense, because they have the scale to milk from BBRY's subscribe/service mode. I do not think anyone could be profitable by selling bb phones, the scale is just not there.

It only makes sense to the desperate.
Samsung and google are not desperate.

[Zimbad]

1. Second, a take over premium of that magnitude doesn't seem to be forthcoming although I wish it would. To drive up the share price to that level you would need significant competition on the take-over bid, or some rationale for higher earnings and market share maintenance. It is not about a particular buyer's ability to pay, but rather, do they need to pay it? It there is topping offer at say $9.20, the board will have little choice but to accept it if no other competing offers emerge. Or the alternative is to reject the offer and see what happens.

Topping offer of $9.20? It has to be more than that to be even considered as Prem Watsa would have to be paid the breakup fee
In any case..if there is a topping offer, that would be 2 offers on the table; and speculation would begin to build for a bidding war and this will drive the price up. Even if the board accepted a low offer, it still has to get shareholders approval

Right now Blackberry is extremely speculative. There is still a lot of value in the company; at the same time most of the market doesn't seem to realize this and this is keeping the price depressed. Whether the price will shoot up to $12 or tank to $5 if bids fail is anyone's guess

[greggebhardt]

Everyone must not forget that even if Google did buy BB, it would not remain what it is today. Google would not follow the path of Blackberry's past. It would be very different. I just do not see this ever happening and certainly not at the prices mentioned here. Google is interested in the servers and messaging system, it does not mean they are going to preserve the service like we know it today.

[fin2007]

Everyone must not forget that even if Google did buy BB, it would not remain what it is today. Google would not follow the path of Blackberry's past. It would be very different. I just do not see this ever happening and certainly not at the prices mentioned here. Google is interested in the servers and messaging system, it does not mean they are going to preserve the service like we know it today.

Who the hell care if BBRY follows the path a lot. I am talking about stock here.

Will Nokia be the same after the takeover? is Motorola the same today?

[fin2007]

No.
It will be less than 6 quarters.

After the Christmas quarter, which will be a complete blood bath for blackberry , the decline will accelerate much more rapidly than previously forecasted.



Your just plain wrong.



That would be the end of blackberry.



It only makes sense to the desperate.
Samsung and google are not desperate.

Who cares BBRY is over or not, it is over anyway. Those who said BBRY still had a chance are either delusional or trolling.

If Samsung and google are desperate, then they will pay $30 for BBRY, because $30 is less than 2x of BBRY's book value,

I never saw a desperate takeover bid price was just 2x of book value. MSFT paid how much of NOK book value? Google paid how much for Motorola's book value?

[sosumi11]

Google just need embeds BBRY's security technology into Andriod, and charge $5 per month for those using blackberry's security network and other premium service. Basically copy bbry's current subscriber service model, think about it, BBRY even reached 1Billion quarterly revenue with its subscriber service, I do not think it would be hard for google to get to that number.

So basically google does not need do anything else, just collect 1B subscriber service revenue, in one year, it would be 4B+, with a margin of 50%, it could make a profit of 2 Billions per year, 500M per quarter. What a great opportunity for Google?.

Your logic has a serious flaw.

Google is not going to spend money on a closed security system and make Android closed. Never going to happen, especially after the failure of buying Motorola Mobile for its patents, which they did as a defensive move for Android.

Android is becoming a huge money pit for Google and it will not be a surprise if Google sells off Android due to the huge fragmentation and focus on distributing their free apps on platforms that actually are used by people that will spend money on ads.

Google is an advertising company. The only reason Android exists was that Google thought Apple's iPhone was going to be a niche device and they were afraid to be locked out of the new mobile industry. Android backfired in that iOS makes more money for Google than Android does.

So there is no reason at all for Google to buy BlackBerry for its patents (?) or its secure server.

[PeterC4]

1. wrong, 27% was overall margin, not service margin. In their 10Q, its said service revenue gross margin was like 80-90%, even their quarter it was still 75%, I think I saw it.

Well, maybe its the gross margins, but I don't know what the sustainable EBITDA margin is. Regardless, the operating costs and maintenance for a scaled down operation would see a lot more overhead allocated to the service division. But let's get back to the crux of it; are Samsung or Apple or anyone for that matter going to pay for BBRY's backbone and infrastructure? Maybe, but it's not like turning on a switch and getting 75% margins. There are conversion and implementation costs, advertising, adoption rate by customers (maybe high, maybe not). People and firms have been running without BBRY servers too. It's an interesting proposition, but your margin estimates are high in my view. Let's face it, it is a very complicated question as to what the restructuring looks like for BBRY.

[PeterC4]

Topping offer of $9.20? It has to be more than that to be even considered as Prem Watsa would have to be paid the breakup fee

Correct. At 515 million shares you're looking at another say $0.30 to trigger the break fee. My example was just illustrative. It will be interesting to see what happens. I'm sure Cerberus is doing all the permutations.

[fin2007]

Your logic has a serious flaw.

Google is not going to spend money on a closed security system and make Android closed. Never going to happen, especially after the failure of buying Motorola Mobile for its patents, which they did as a defensive move for Android.

Android is becoming a huge money pit for Google and it will not be a surprise if Google sells off Android due to the huge fragmentation and focus on distributing their free apps on platforms that actually are used by people that will spend money on ads.

Google is an advertising company. The only reason Android exists was that Google thought Apple's iPhone was going to be a niche device and they were afraid to be locked out of the new mobile industry. Android backfired in that iOS makes more money for Google than Android does.

So there is no reason at all for Google to buy BlackBerry for its patents (?) or its secure server.

Who said BBRY's security system is closed? It is more secure only if you use their secure network, if not, bb phone can work as the other phones in the world, that is what I called premium service.

here is some read:

http://www.phonedog.com/2013/10/05/h...y-on-for-size/

[CrackedBarry]

I'd like some technical details, as to how OP would suggest that Google would

embeds BBRY's security technology into Andriod,

How would this implementation work, exactly?

Of course it's also a possibility that OP is kinda clueless as to the technology involved, and just spitballing, and might as well have suggested that "I think blackberry should put a timemachine feature in the next Z10, cause a lotta people could travel back before they make phone call and save a lot money that way!"

[Byronjx]

This is the silliest mess I have read on here in a long time.

Posted via CB10

[Roo Zilla]

For the sake of argument, let's say Google or Samsung were interested in buying BBRY. There is absolutely no reason they would need to pay $12 or more per share. Since neither company would need outside financing, they could probably float a bid BELOW $9 and be accepted. If Google came out tomorrow and stated they were offering $8.50 per share to everyone that tenders by the end of the month, that bid would have a much higher chance of being received by the market than the one proposed by Fairfax. The market hates uncertainty, and Fairfax's bid is at best, uncertain. A Google (or Samsung) bid would be the equivalent of a Amex Black card.

[greggebhardt]

This is the silliest mess I have read on here in a long time.

Posted via CB10

I can not agree, but it has to rank in the top 10 for silly threads. This is what happen when we lie in a vacuum of real facts or information.

[fin2007]

I can not agree, but it has to rank in the top 10 for silly threads. This is what happen when we lie in a vacuum of real facts or information.

hehe, Why could not you just wait for 3 more weeks before saying that?

If you know really knows how to trade stock, you would not post 6000+ here, What a *** LOL.

Sure, You can just disappear at that time, free speech, LOL.

[bobauckland]

hehe, Why could not you just wait for 3 more weeks before saying that?

If you know really knows how to trade stock, you would not post 6000+ here, What a *** LOL.

Sure, You can just disappear at that time, free speech, LOL.

You're posting nonsense here with a bad attitude then telling other people if they knew what they were talking about they wouldn't be posting here?
Makes sense.

Posted via CB10