[jhowe204]

I'm a bit of an investing newbe and would greatly appreciate it if someone could answer a few questions.

1) Hypothetically speaking, if BlackBerry does receive an offer or go private, when would be the best time to sell your stocks?

2) If it goes private, do shares automatically get bought out?

3) If there is a bidding war, is it just best to wait for the dust to settle?

4) How will all of this affect the shorts?

Thanks.

It ain't EZ being BB

[m1a1mg]

Those are all good questions.

I think a good example to reference is where Dell is right now. Dell stock is currently at ~$13.85 with an agreed upon price of ~$13.88 privatization price. Dell's board recommended accepting the deal. I don't think it's going to the shareholders. Remember, supposedly the board represents the shareholders.

I asked the same question about the buyback. It apparently isn't automatic, and you could hold on to your shares. Of course, after the buyout is complete, they'd be damn near worthless.

Shorts could get hammered, depending on the price.

[nico2004]

I have been holding mine for a while,something is cooking and we will make lots of $$$$$.


Golf=passion

[glamrlama]

It is very hard to answer the thread title question without additional information. But here is some generic advice; buy low sell high. If you bought at $140; it will never be a good time to sell. If you bought at $7; today is a good time to sell. Know the risks and invest accordingly.

[sosof]

2009.

I recommend familiarizing yourself with movies such as back to the future prior to executing this sale though.

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

The best time to sell is:

1) when you do your due diligence and find a different equity that you expect will make you more than bbry will.

"I can make more or the same on a tsx index fund, so why keep bbry?"

2) when the reasons that you bought bbry for in the first place no longer exist.

"I assumed they would sell 5 million bb10 phones and make xx profit last quarter, this isn't working out"



Posted via CB10

[jhowe204]

Let's say Bbry receives an offer of $17/share to go private tomorrow....
Will there be a short squeeze? Will share price hover around $17? On another note, I'm surprised there hasn't been a short squeeze already with all these rumors.

It ain't EZ being BB

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

No one really knows.... BlackBerry has been too QUIET for us to really know how things are going.

There is a LOT of uncertainty in regards BlackBerry and it's value. I've seen lows around $9 a share and highs around $20, of course that is the value today. After the QER that value could easily change - they biggest question is the what is the core of BlackBerry (smartphone & MDM) really worth. If the ER is really (worse than they said it would be) bad, that might mean that the core of BlackBerry isn't worth very much at all. Or if it is better than expected, that might show that the platform has some life and just needs some financial help thus increasing it's value (or at least maintaining).

Right now there is a lot of talk about a buyout and hope that it will be for more than current stock values ($18, $20, $25 - very optimistic and downright unrealistic). But you can bet that any buyer is going to want a bargain if they don't really want the whole company or they don't see a future for the company as it operates today. They might even want to see where the price goes after the 3rd QER.... regardless of what BB wants.

This is not a NORMAL buyout (more like a short sale) of a healthy and thriving company, it isn't even a company that needs just a little financial help to get things going again (unless sales are better than all the indicators). It is a company with a major product that consumers do not seem to want - and the FIXES will be costly and time consuming. And any investor only has to look at PALM, WP and BB10 and see just how difficult this will be.

You are the one risking your money, you will have to decide if you can afford to risk seeing where things go....

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Let's say Bbry receives an offer of $17/share to go private tomorrow....
Will there be a short squeeze? Will share price hover around $17? On another note, I'm surprised there hasn't been a short squeeze already with all these rumors.

It ain't EZ being BB

Odds are pretty good that after ER and if a "deal" isn't reached pretty soon that the shorts will not be the ones in danger.

[jhowe204]

No faith ?

It ain't EZ being BB

[m1a1mg]

No faith ?

It ain't EZ being BB

Not one single iota of faith after the last 7 months. The only way the management team at BBRY could have performed worse, was to try to screw up this badly.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

No faith ?

It ain't EZ being BB

STORM
PlayBook
BB10 Platform


It ain't EZ being a BlackBerry owner.

[Thunderbuck]

Not one single iota of faith after the last 7 months. The only way the management team at BBRY could have performed worse, was to try to screw up this badly.

If BB management were that bad, then BB10 wouldn't have made it to market at all.

To the original question, the most likely prospect seems to be an attempt to take the company private. To do so, all the outstanding shares will have to be purchased, and at a premium to the current share price.

I'm a current shareholder, and I'd love to see an offer somewhere around book value (estimated to be up around $18 per share), but I suspect it's going to be more like $14-$17. I'm actually trying to get some cash together to buy more shares, since that's still a fair premium over the current mid-$11 share price, but I would have loved to see the company hold on until BB10 really takes off as a platform.

[m1a1mg]

If BB management were that bad, then BB10 wouldn't have made it to market at all.

To the original question, the most likely prospect seems to be an attempt to take the company private. To do so, all the outstanding shares will have to be purchased, and at a premium to the current share price.

I'm a current shareholder, and I'd love to see an offer somewhere around book value (estimated to be up around $18 per share), but I suspect it's going to be more like $14-$17. I'm actually trying to get some cash together to buy more shares, since that's still a fair premium over the current mid-$11 share price, but I would have loved to see the company hold on until BB10 really takes off as a platform.

Inertia Thunderbuck. They had to bring out OS10. Can you picture a way they could have done worse?

Buy all you want. I'm at $14ish. I'll put in stops along the way up, and won't own this stock on the 26th. For all the speculation, there are numbers all over the place from all types of "experts". But this stock was worth $18 in January, when the potential for BBOS10 was still there.

Don't get me wrong. I am absolutely thrilled at this "news". Otherwise, after the 27th, we might have been looking at $7-8.

By the way, take a look at Dell and tell me what premium those stockholders are getting? There is no requirement for a premium on a struggling company.

[ccbs]

Dell was in better position than BBRY is when the buyout was offered. I used to think 14~16 will be the price but now it is more likely to be 12 ~13 per share. The upside is limited and the risk is there. Still, I don't think any offer will pass shareholder voting below $12.

[jhowe204]

If BB management were that bad, then BB10 wouldn't have made it to market at all.

To the original question, the most likely prospect seems to be an attempt to take the company private. To do so, all the outstanding shares will have to be purchased, and at a premium to the current share price.

I'm a current shareholder, and I'd love to see an offer somewhere around book value (estimated to be up around $18 per share), but I suspect it's going to be more like $14-$17. I'm actually trying to get some cash together to buy more shares, since that's still a fair premium over the current mid-$11 share price, but I would have loved to see the company hold on until BB10 really takes off as a platform.

+1

It ain't EZ being BB

[jhowe204]

I have faith in Thor's 2-3 year plan... It's only been 1 year people! I also have faith in Prem's plan, even if it does involve piecing it off and going private. I'm predicting a Nov buyout at $17+/share.

BB10 is the best OS out there, bar none!

It ain't EZ being BB

[greggebhardt]

No faith ?

It ain't EZ being BB

Faith? You must be talking "Blind Faith".

There is a point when loving Blackberry and making good investments do not mix. This is money involved here and not some high school football team! A LOT of people have lost a lot of money with BBRY, they are seeking answers.

I have no respect for TH after the last ER. He lied to and deceived the stock holders and will do it again if given a chance.

[TGR1]

Faith? You must be talking "Blind Faith".

There is a point when loving Blackberry and making good investments do not mix. This is money involved here and not some high school football team! A LOT of people have lost a lot of money with BBRY, they are seeking answers.

I have no respect for TH after the last ER. He lied to and deceived the stock holders and will do it again if given a chance.

+1
Investing on emotion is not good strategy because it tends to blind you to unpleasant fundamentals. Do it only if you have a strong moral/ethical/sentimental purpose driving the decision and are fully ok with losing your investment.

[TGR1]

I have faith in Thor's 2-3 year plan... It's only been 1 year people! I also have faith in Prem's plan, even if it does involve piecing it off and going private. I'm predicting a Nov buyout at $17+/share.

BB10 is the best OS out there, bar none!

It ain't EZ being BB

You have faith in Watsa's plan, even though as far as I am aware no details of said plan are publicly known?

You said you are a investing newbie. Personally, I wouldn't go near BBRY or other high risk stocks and read up a lot more first.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

+1
Investing on emotion is not good strategy because it tends to blind you to unpleasant fundamentals. Do it only if you have a strong moral/ethical/sentimental purpose driving the decision and are fully ok with losing your investment.

Just look at the post of many in the "I support BBRY" thread...

That it is now being reported that Fairfax has been looking for a buyer for their 10% ownership in BBRY is not a worry at all.

Lay-off at a company that has been trimmed down to the bare bones is still just cutting the fat.

That Kevin and Company had a text conversation about Software being the focus of the company going forward and Chris basically saying that hardware business was over, doesn't mean anything to them.

They believe one guy that says that BBM brings $5B to the value of the company, when we really don't know much about how it performs or IF anyone outside of CrackBerry cares. Sure there are folks here that say ALL their friend want it - of course they were the same ones that said ALL their friends wanted BB10 devices, so they shouldn't need a cross platform BBM... should they?

That Verizon doesn't even display a BlackBerry unless you enable a BlackBerry filter is no reflection of sales or the carriers support of the devices.

That BB has cut license fees for BES10 is a great sign that BB is serious about being competitive with other MDM Platforms.

That the only potential buyer last year when BB10 still had potential, was only going to offer $8B and couldn't get support means nothing in the valuation of BBRY.

Many believe that BB still has $3B in cash and that even without a buyer they can operate for years....

Most there still see a $18 - $20 a share buyout as a done deal at this point... they are all waiting on their checks to show up. A few believe that a $25 - $40 per share is also a possibility.

I can see that IF the ER isn't as bad as it seems that it will be, and IF the right buyer(s) can be found, and IF BBM is released and sees some quick growth... that $20+ is a possibility. But I also see where IF things don't go right.... that the value of BBRY could fall very quickly. Right now the stock is being held in place based on rumors of a buyout. If those rumors go away, and the stock is valued based on the fundamentals.... no future hardware sales - you "could" be looking at a lot of very unhappy and noticeably poorer BB Fans.

It's one thing when the Smartphone Platform that you love is not going to be around anymore. It's another thing when your retirement fund isn't going to be around anymore. Some there are just using a little extra cash they had laying around, other seem to be much more invested.

[m1a1mg]

Good news is fact, bad news is malicious rumor spread by paid trolls.

Wall Street Journal is crap, but a guy posting from Greece on Seeking Alpha is an expert in all things US DoD.

Finally, to the OP, apparently yesterday evening before close would have been a great time to sell. I'm mad at myself. Should have put a stop at $11.25.

[jhowe204]

Haha patience my friend. I'm planning on keeping til at least November, which is when I think we will know what they're doing. But if they're not selling I think Q4 results with the Z30 will be positive.

It ain't EZ being BB

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Haha patience my friend. I'm planning on keeping til at least November, which is when I think we will know what they're doing. But if they're not selling I think Q4 results with the Z30 will be positive.

It ain't EZ being BB

WHY??

Why will the Z30 succeed where the Z10 and Q10 have failed?

Is the screen size the difference?
Is the 6 month old specs in stead of 12 month old specs going to make the difference?
Do you believe that BlackBerry has a bunch of developers on board and are holding them back for the launch of the Z30?
Do you believe that BlackBerry is about to change their marketing?
After the failure of the Z10 and Q10 do you believe that carriers are going to really push anything BlackBerry?
Do you believe that pricing on the Z30 will reflect the hardware? Or will BB still charge a premium for a platform that lacks support?

[TGR1]

WHY??

Why will the Z30 succeed where the Z10 and Q10 have failed?

Is the screen size the difference?
Is the 6 month old specs in stead of 12 month old specs going to make the difference?
Do you believe that BlackBerry has a bunch of developers on board and are holding them back for the launch of the Z30?
Do you believe that BlackBerry is about to change their marketing?
After the failure of the Z10 and Q10 do you believe that carriers are going to really push anything BlackBerry?
Do you believe that pricing on the Z30 will reflect the hardware? Or will BB still charge a premium for a platform that lacks support?

^^ Seriously.

OP, sounds as if you don't actually "think" it will be positive, you are "hoping". And truthfully, you aren't investing either, you are gambling. Again that is your prerogative.

I have to second reservations about this faith in the impact of the Z30 on BBRY's survival. Even if (and goodness that's a big if) it is successful beyond the wildest of TH's secret dreams, it doesn't address most of the more serious issues beyond hardware. It has an especially hard climb up when both wunderkind (flagship touchscreen and keyboard models) failed badly, AND has to compete with a resurrected legacy model for the favor of the faithful. It would truly take a Jesus phone to do all that.