1. kirson's Avatar
    The street LOVED todays earnings release. 45 million shares traded, driving the price up 10%. But the release spoke in a lot of generalities, lots of items were lumped together, and actual details around some very major issues were not disclosed. This is not at all unusual, it just makes it hard to draw precise conclusions. Here are the things I wish I knew:

    1. How much of the revenue line came from the Good acquisition? Good reported 2014 revenues of over $200 million and they were growing fast (and losing lots of money). Could they have grown to $240 million? Could today's numbers include $60 million to $80 million of revenues from Good? What does that mean about the rest of the business?

    2. How much cash was generated by one time licensing arrangements? We heard reference to 70% being recurring - but 70% of exactly what? Software and licensing were lumped together. Could we have $40 million of one time licensing revenues in these numbers?

    3. How much cash was generated by working capital continuing to decline as the legacy business continued to shrink? The reported numbers suggest a huge amount of cash generated from liquidating working capital - but the period over period comparison was obscure.

    4. How much cash was generated from tax refunds, and how much tax remains to be refunded? This gravy train comes to an end at some point - you can only look back so many years before this pot of gold is depleted.

    5. Assuming the Priv sold with an ASP of $600, and older devices remained at an average ASP of $240, then the company sold around 140,000 Priv phones and around 540,000 older phones. That means older phone sales declined over 35% quarter over quarter. That is a bit alarming, and does not suggest much hope for BB10. On the other hand, maybe Priv sales can take off with the Verizon launch and the global rollout. How many devices does Blackberry REALLY need to sell to break even in the hardware division?

    6. Service Access Fees declines another $50 million or so this quarter - and this is revenue with, I believe, 90%+ margin. This is another gravy train coming to the end of the line. When does SAF revenue finally go away? The last BBOS devices are being sold, and the legacy devices are dying out. This one will continue to hurt as it goes away. Is the Good revenue generating positive margin? Can it replace the SAF revenue?

    Overall, there was a lot of GOOD news reported today. But it will be interesting to see how much of this good news is really a sign of good things to come and not just a lot of financial engineering designed to keep the company afloat.
    12-18-15 06:32 PM
  2. Jtaylor1986's Avatar
    Basically they said 20million was good revenue.

    Posted via CB10
    12-18-15 06:48 PM
  3. kirson's Avatar
    Interesting. I missed that. Guess we'll have to wait another 90 days to see where the ship is heading.
    12-18-15 10:37 PM
  4. eshropshire's Avatar
    Interesting. I missed that. Guess we'll have to wait another 90 days to see where the ship is heading.
    I think if most people on Wallstreet had their way BB would have stopped making phones a long time ago. I would also bet the discussion about the future of the hardware business comes is on the agenda of every BB Board meeting.
    12-19-15 11:41 AM

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