04-04-14 01:02 PM
43 12
tools
  1. dusdal's Avatar
    I personally am a strong advocate of value investing by analyzing fundamentals and determining potential catalysts to avoid potential value traps.

    Having said this mass psychology's predictive nature allows for TA to add much value as an investment tool.

    Your thoughts on this?

    Posted via CB10
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    08-27-13 12:44 AM
  2. qbnkelt's Avatar
    I personally am a strong advocate of value investing by analyzing fundamentals and determining potential catalysts to avoid potential value traps.

    Having said this mass psychology's predictive nature allows for TA to add much value as an investment tool.

    Your thoughts on this?

    Posted via CB10
    wow this is deep for so early in the morning.....what are you doing, man?!?!?!?

    Investing is part science, part art, and a h3ll of a lot of sheer dumb luck.
    08-27-13 07:32 AM
  3. knighty2112's Avatar
    Can we have a clear English translation please! ; )

    Posted via CB10
    08-27-13 07:45 AM
  4. m1a1mg's Avatar
    TA, from my perspective, is hokum. When you derive charts that fit your perspective a least. The only way I can see TA having any value, is if it is accomplished in a vacuum, where the person creating the chart has no interest in the stock involved whatsoever. Otherwise, too often, trend lines tend to be what the chart creator wants them to be.
    08-27-13 08:30 AM
  5. dusdal's Avatar
    To be frank, I haven't read this in it's entirety yet, but does provide food for this particular topic.

    This is a fairly famous study on the topic which debunks, to some degree, earlier studies that suggested TA was useless. It uses basic MA TA tools and concludes that there are patterns that were taken advantage of by using these very basic tools.

    http://www.santafe.edu/media/working.../91-01-006.pdf

    Thoughts?
    08-27-13 11:04 AM
  6. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    The technical analysis on Crackberry is of such poor quality (esp. from the proclaimed "professionals") that it had garnered much antagonism. Many individuals on Crackberry have never experienced technical analysis outside of BBRY and, since this is a fansite, the technical analysts are inclined to say BBRY will go up and be more often wrong than right.

    This thread raises a good point because the biggest problem with the Crackberry technical analysts is not their understanding of the TA concepts but their failure to properly prioritize and apply technical skills in the correct circumstances.

    Knowing WHEN to use RSI, Stochastics, chart patterns, etc. or even fundamentals is everything! Otherwise, you are not consulting technical analysis for price trends but merely looking for validation of your own existing opinion... and validation will ALWAYS exist for every position due to the myriad of TA disciplines.

    Before using technical analysis, I recommend investors outline their own TA procedure for analyzing a stock and stick to it. Here is an example:

    1/ Fundamentals... but only earnings and sales numbers
    2a/ Trendlines and retracements... during times of stock activity
    2b/ Oscillators during times of stock inactivity
    3/ Chart patterns
    4/ Relative strength analysis
    5/ Moving averages
    etc. etc. etc.

    A technical analysis classic I recommend reading is Murphy's "Technical Analysis of Financial Markets"
    Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance): John J. Murphy: 9780735200661: Amazon.com: Books

    Inside, Murphy clearly stipulates which technique should be used and when. Pay attention to that! He tells us which techniques are the most solid from his experience and which are of dubious nature and should be of secondary consideration. Your own TA prioritizing does not need to match Murphy's but it is a good place to start as a beginner and you can always adapt it as you gain more experience.

    Even if Murphy's technique is not perfect, when someone's technical analysis prioritizing is completely different and divergent from in this book, unless the person is Warren Buffet or something, their work is probably garbage.
    Last edited by sentimentGX4; 08-27-13 at 12:42 PM.
    m1a1mg and danprown like this.
    08-27-13 12:27 PM
  7. morlock_man's Avatar
    I prefer a technology analysis to a technical analysis of the stock's movement trends. Is BB10, as a Canadian technology, like the Avro Arrow? Superior technology doesn't always win out on the large scale, as nations choose not to outsource important technological developments (like security software or fighter jets) to other countries.

    In the short term, stocks are voting machine. In the long term a weighing machine. It just happens that the American version of the voting machine is weighted in favor of American companies by American hedge funds.
    08-27-13 12:39 PM
  8. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    I prefer a technology analysis to a technical analysis of the stock's movement trends. Is BB10, as a Canadian technology, like the Avro Arrow? Superior technology doesn't always win out on the large scale, as nations choose not to outsource important technological developments (like security software or fighter jets) to other countries.
    The problem is that few of us are qualified to conduct a "technology analysis" (which is basically fundamental analysis of Blackberry's assets). Not even many engineers are.

    You insinuate BB10 is "superior technology"; but, are you absolutely 100% confident of your impartiality? Many people, including the media, insinuate BB10 is inferior technology. What makes you qualified to be more right than they are?

    Saying "Blackberry has the best security" is not proof it has the best security. You need to hire hackers to hack each OS in X time period in a fixed setting. Saying the "Blackberry keyboard is the best" does not make it so. Take a stopwatch and time a person typing on Blackberry vs. Android etc. etc. Same thing with Hub, gestures, etc.

    The reason we use technical analysis is to give us some predictive authority in industries/field we are not familiar. If you think that you are qualified to judge which OS is the "best", (unless you are an engineer at Apple who has tried every major mobile OS) you are probably not impartial enough to judge which OS is the best already.



    Investors need to possess good self reflection. Ask yourself constantly, am I impartial? How much do I know?
    08-27-13 12:55 PM
  9. notfanboy's Avatar
    I posted the following on the "I support BBRY" thread. I got a lot of replies but only one of them attempted to address the topic. The rest of the replies were all insults: I got called a "tool" and a "troll" and got added to a lot of ignore lists. I am honestly puzzled by the vitriol and defensiveness that resulted. Anyway thanks to dusdal for starting this thread and here's hoping for more mature discussion of the merits or flaws of technical analysis.

    ===

    On the day that BlackBerry announced that they were open to strategic initiatives, the stock went up 8%. Some poster, I forget their name, said that this was predicted by the Bollinger Bands and proclaimed that how could anyone still doubt TA? Let me ask you, was the rise in stock predicted by TA or was it coincidence? If you answered the former, what is the causal mechanism by which the Bollinger bands predicted BB would release the press release at that time? To draw any connection between the two is nothing but mysticism.

    Objections to TA as it is practiced on this thread.

    Problem number one: If a prediction pans out then it is a flagged as a success. If a prediction doesn't then it is blamed on manipulation by the shorts. It is a theory that is impossible to refute. What happens when a prediction doesn't pan out? Not a problem. The next day a chartist simply starts over and draws new lines! Predictions also are given a lot of leeway. A chartist could say we are due for a "breakout" or a "key reversal". But for several days or weeks nothing significant happens. But eventually something will happen though. If the movement is in the right direction, the prediction is counted as a success. If not, the failed predictions are blamed on manipulation, swept under the rug and forgotten. Predictions are bound to be correct half the time, but human nature quickly forgets the misses and only remembers the hits.

    Problem number two: BBRY is a volatile stock with lots of swings both up and down. Your TA based predictions are, almost without fail, always bullish. The chartists on this thread have never anticipated a major downward movement. I'm not keeping score but it would seem that you are wrong half the time.

    Problem number three: Also I don't recall a single instance where the chartists here were able to predict a significant stock movement. I can recall any significant shift that was anticipated by the chartists. When the stock moved up or down by 2% or more, it was always because of an analyst downgrade or upgrade, earnings report, press release or some real news. Then the charts are simply redrawn to accomodate the actual news and the old charts are forgotten.

    Problem number four: Let's say that charting techniques can really predicting stock price. If a proven method is found for doing this, then everyone else would take advantage of that method and the method becomes useless.
    sentimentGX4 and dusdal like this.
    08-27-13 01:00 PM
  10. morlock_man's Avatar
    The problem is that few of us are qualified to conduct a "technology analysis" (which is basically fundamental analysis of Blackberry's assets). Not even many engineers are.

    You insinuate BB10 is "superior technology"; but, are you absolutely 100% confident of your impartiality? Many people, including the media, insinuate BB10 is inferior technology. What makes you qualified to be more right than they are?

    Saying "Blackberry has the best security" is not proof it has the best security. You need to hire hackers to hack each OS in X time period in a fixed setting. Saying the "Blackberry keyboard is the best" does not make it so. Take a stopwatch and time a person typing on Blackberry vs. Android etc. etc. Same thing with Hub, gestures, etc.

    The reason we use technical analysis is to give us some predictive authority in industries/field we are not familiar. If you think that you are qualified to judge which OS is the "best", (unless you are an engineer at Apple who has tried every major mobile OS) you are probably not impartial enough to judge which OS is the best already.

    Investors need to possess good self reflection. Ask yourself constantly, am I impartial? How much do I know?
    <- Electronics Engineering is my forte.

    Their whole OS design paradigm is about 15 years past the competition in terms of the fundamental computer science advancements being relied upon. And the modularity inherent in the microkernel design makes it easier to maintain and update provided they don't drag along a legacy product (ala the Playbook.)

    The media's big complaints are usually about the App ecosystem, which has nothing to do with the platform's strengths, only it's perceived weakness by the market. But perception doesn't always match the reality of the situation.

    Saying BlackBerry has the best security is relying on the fact that they simply offer the highest security platform available to consumers, corporations and governments. If you think this is otherwise, then why does Obama still rock a BlackBerry?

    BlackBerry has the best keyboards because they've patented a lot of the hardware designs that go into making a good keyboard for a mobile device.

    If BB10 is so terrible, where are the viruses?

    How much malware has clogged up BlackBerry World? Not just useless fart apps, but 'steal your data' malware.

    The problem is that tech bloggers these days are usually paid shills, so getting an honest word out of any of them is near impossible.
    08-27-13 01:13 PM
  11. m1a1mg's Avatar
    I posted the following on the "I support BBRY" thread. I got a lot of replies but only one of them attempted to address the topic. The rest of the replies were all insults: I got called a "tool" and a "troll" and got added to a lot of ignore lists. I am honestly puzzled by the vitriol and defensiveness that resulted.
    That has become the happy, happy, joy, joy thread. Either talk about how wonderful BBRY is, or go elsewhere. Reality be damned. They call people names that have been around CB way longer than many of them.

    It's my fault for listening to people in that thread, but some of the TA proponents have been so wrong, for so long, they should just stop. But they don't, and people keep following along.
    notfanboy likes this.
    08-27-13 01:23 PM
  12. dusdal's Avatar

    ===

    On the day that BlackBerry announced that they were open to strategic initiatives, the stock went up 8%. Some poster, I forget their name, said that this was predicted by the Bollinger Bands and proclaimed that how could anyone still doubt TA? Let me ask you, was the rise in stock predicted by TA or was it coincidence? If you answered the former, what is the causal mechanism by which the Bollinger bands predicted BB would release the press release at that time? To draw any connection between the two is nothing but mysticism...
    Full disclosure: I have veryveryvery limited knowledge of TA.

    As I understand it, no one actually suggested that their charting could predict a press release or any other news for that matter. What they were referring to was the tightening/narrowing of the Bollinger Bands around the SP. Because the BB had been acting as such a solid support and resistance any news that pushed the SP outside of the bands would leave the SP to make a much larger move.

    I believe the only reason that TA works as much as it does is because there are many market movers who believe that TA works. It is self-fulfilling prophecy.

    It is the same as how we use paper with different numbers on it and they have varying dollar values. They are just meaningless pieces of paper with ink on them, but because we all believe and accept that they have value, they do.
    08-27-13 01:30 PM
  13. m1a1mg's Avatar
    I suppose I just don't understand how "news" can be planned into TA. Example. Two weeks ago on a Friday, BBRY made their Strategic blah, blah announcement. For those of us who have followed RIMM/BBRY for years, we knew they had announced something similar last year. So, no big deal, right? But the stock jumped. How does anyone plan for news?
    08-27-13 01:42 PM
  14. dusdal's Avatar
    It can't be.

    That is exactly what I was attempting to explain.
    08-27-13 01:47 PM
  15. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    I suppose I just don't understand how "news" can be planned into TA. Example. Two weeks ago on a Friday, BBRY made their Strategic blah, blah announcement. For those of us who have followed RIMM/BBRY for years, we knew they had announced something similar last year. So, no big deal, right? But the stock jumped. How does anyone plan for news?
    Technical analysis can't and is not intended to predict news; but that does not mean it is of no value. A thermometer can't measure your blood sugar; but does that mean it lacks value in detecting illness?

    Technical analysis is the same way. It is useful tool in a particular circumstance and only in those particular circumstances. When there is no news, that is when technical analysis is strongest and its intended usage.

    Admittedly, BBRY might not be the best stock to practice technical analysis because there is always news about it; but, there are many more boring stocks out there where nothing happens all year long.
    08-27-13 01:55 PM
  16. notfanboy's Avatar
    Full disclosure: I have veryveryvery limited knowledge of TA.

    As I understand it, no one actually suggested that their charting could predict a press release or any other news for that matter. What they were referring to was the tightening/narrowing of the Bollinger Bands around the SP. Because the BB had been acting as such a solid support and resistance any news that pushed the SP outside of the bands would leave the SP to make a much larger move.

    I believe the only reason that TA works as much as it does is because there are many market movers who believe that TA works. It is self-fulfilling prophecy.

    It is the same as how we use paper with different numbers on it and they have varying dollar values. They are just meaningless pieces of paper with ink on them, but because we all believe and accept that they have value, they do.
    We can discuss all day on the mechanisms of how TA works, but to get anywhere, the real question is to ask whether or not TA works. Many academic studies have been done to try on answer this question. The consensus is that once you factor in transaction costs, TA based strategies do not outperform the stock market indices.

    Here's a link to a paper titled "Technical Analysis Around The World." Technical Analysis Around the World by Ben R. Marshall, Rochester H. Cahan, Jared Cahan :: SSRN

    Abstract:
    Over 5,000 popular technical trading rules are not consistently profitable in the 49 country indices that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. Each market has some rules that are profitable when considered in isolation but these profits are not statistically significant after data snooping bias adjustment. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that these trading rules compliment other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation during the time period we consider.
    08-27-13 02:47 PM
  17. m1a1mg's Avatar
    It can't be.

    That is exactly what I was attempting to explain.
    My comment merely followed yours. It was not directed AT you. Sorry for the confusion.
    dusdal likes this.
    08-27-13 03:01 PM
  18. danprown's Avatar
    What the Snowden leaks demonstrate is that no big company from these 5 -- USA, UK, NZ, AUS and Canada -- provide any real "security" to consumers or governments. Of course, that does not mean that Chinese companies provide any real alternative -- on the contrary -- but, overall, it just shows that the concept of "security" as some kind of leverage in the market is past its expiration date.



    <- Electronics Engineering is my forte.

    Their whole OS design paradigm is about 15 years past the competition in terms of the fundamental computer science advancements being relied upon. And the modularity inherent in the microkernel design makes it easier to maintain and update provided they don't drag along a legacy product (ala the Playbook.)

    The media's big complaints are usually about the App ecosystem, which has nothing to do with the platform's strengths, only it's perceived weakness by the market. But perception doesn't always match the reality of the situation.

    Saying BlackBerry has the best security is relying on the fact that they simply offer the highest security platform available to consumers, corporations and governments. If you think this is otherwise, then why does Obama still rock a BlackBerry?

    BlackBerry has the best keyboards because they've patented a lot of the hardware designs that go into making a good keyboard for a mobile device.

    If BB10 is so terrible, where are the viruses?

    How much malware has clogged up BlackBerry World? Not just useless fart apps, but 'steal your data' malware.

    The problem is that tech bloggers these days are usually paid shills, so getting an honest word out of any of them is near impossible.
    08-28-13 09:42 AM
  19. morlock_man's Avatar
    What the Snowden leaks demonstrate is that no big company from these 5 -- USA, UK, NZ, AUS and Canada -- provide any real "security" to consumers or governments. Of course, that does not mean that Chinese companies provide any real alternative -- on the contrary -- but, overall, it just shows that the concept of "security" as some kind of leverage in the market is past its expiration date.
    So... you didn't notice that BBRY isn't part of the NSA-PRISM system?

    There was a mention of a BBRY hack in the UK, but that appears to have relied on a variant of the Zeus malware, which still requires you to give an unknown app permission to access your data.

    Security doesn't work if you leave the vault door open with the alarm system off.
    08-28-13 09:56 AM
  20. pillswoj's Avatar
    So... you didn't notice that BBRY isn't part of the NSA-PRISM system?
    That is because BBRY has no email system, they rely on others for email ... all public ones are part of the NSA-Prism system. Also BBM is only secure if you are on a BES, otherwise it uses a global public key.

    The thought that Blackberry is secure is false for the average consumer. Companies with their own mail servers and BES are secure but if you are not on a BES all emails and BBM's can be intercepted and read just like the other platforms.
    08-28-13 10:03 AM
  21. morlock_man's Avatar
    That is because BBRY has no email system, they rely on others for email ... all public ones are part of the NSA-Prism system. Also BBM is only secure if you are on a BES, otherwise it uses a global public key.

    The thought that Blackberry is secure is false for the average consumer. Companies with their own mail servers and BES are secure but if you are not on a BES all emails and BBM's can be intercepted and read just like the other platforms.
    Why do you think BBM's aren't secure?

    Also, small business and the average consumer can purchase BES licenses if they want to host their own secure email systems. The server-side software is free.
    08-28-13 10:10 AM
  22. pillswoj's Avatar
    Why do you think BBM's aren't secure?

    Also, small business and the average consumer can purchase BES licenses if they want to host their own secure email systems. The server-side software is free.
    Because they aren't, Is PIN to PIN messaging secure? | CrackBerry.com
    08-28-13 10:27 AM
  23. morlock_man's Avatar
    Pfft... Do you own a BlackBerry?

    They rely on BBIDs now for BBM, not PINs.

    You can still send PIN-to-PIN messages, which makes them a good backup in disaster situations where the backend servers may be inaccessible.
    08-28-13 10:30 AM
  24. pillswoj's Avatar
    Pfft... Do you own a BlackBerry?

    They rely on BBIDs now for BBM, not PINs.

    You can still send PIN-to-PIN messages, which makes them a good backup in disaster situations where the backend servers may be inaccessible.
    I owned Blackberrys From 2004 to Feb 2013 taking an 18 month break to see how the phone wars shake out. Not that it should impact my ability to take part in a discussion.

    Could you provide links for the increased security that BB implemented when they transitioned to BBIDs for BBM? I was not aware of any change to the fact that they use a global encryption key.
    08-28-13 10:42 AM
  25. notfanboy's Avatar
    LOL what does the last few posts have to do with the thread title?
    Kid Vibe likes this.
    08-28-13 10:42 AM
43 12

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