1. kcdist's Avatar
    One of the major metrics that everyone will be looking at tomorrow morning will be Subscriber count. In Q2, it peaked at 80 Million, and then it shrunk to 79 Million last quarter. Many shorts are likely expecting the count to decrease further this quarter.

    HOWEVER.....in all the analyst discussions that I have read lately, there seems to be no mention of this tidbit: In last quarter's MD&A, it was mentioned that, for this quarter and going forward, that BBRY was going to calculate Subscriber numbers in a different manner. Instead of counting only devices that they are currently deriving revenue from via monthly fees, they are now going to count any device that they are either deriving revenue from, or that is set up so they can possibly derive revenue from. For example, a BB10 device that is set up for purchases at the App Store. Or an old BB5 device that is still in use, but is not hooked up to BIS, such as a PAYGO device that only currently has voice enabled.

    I could be wrong, but I think this will potentially increase the Subscriber count by a few million, at least. Where I live, I know of quite a few folks that have Blackberries, but are only using them as normal phones, as it's cheaper that way.

    BOTTOM LINE......when the numbers are released tomorrow, the pre-market will go crazy, based on a quick, initial review of the numbers. If the market has 79 Million seared into everyone's memory bank, and they, at first glance see a number like 85 Million, they may very well hit the BUY key, well before they have a chance to dig deeper into the financials and methodology.

    Anyhow.....if this is a factor....you read it here first.

    From Q3 MD&A:

    " To reflect the changes described above, and to better address possible future strategies and service and software revenue opportunities
    related to an integrated services and software offering for the BlackBerry 10 mobile computing platform, RIM will be adjusting the
    methodology it uses to calculate the size of its subscriber base for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 and subsequent fiscal quarters.
    Rather than calculating the total of all subscriber accounts that have an active status at the end of a reporting period and for which
    infrastructure access fees are thereby generated, RIM will identify its BlackBerry subscriber base as the total of all BlackBerry
    subscriber accounts that are provisioned to access BlackBerry services, regardless of whether RIM is receiving infrastructure access
    fees from each such subscriber in any given month. The Company believes this change will better reflect the base of BlackBerry users
    that may contribute to service revenues in the future, whether solely through infrastructure access fees or the integrated service and
    software offering being developed"
    03-27-13 08:58 AM
  2. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    I do believe in a recent interview one of the Execs said 78 million (could have even been the launch of the Z10). I cant find it right now but I am fairly certain they dropped below 79million.
    03-27-13 09:00 AM
  3. q649's Avatar
    I do believe in a recent interview one of the Execs said 78 million (could have even been the launch of the Z10). I cant find it right now but I am fairly certain they dropped below 79million.
    Agreed. I suspect the best case is stable at 79 million users.. no way they're at 85M! BB10 hasn't been out long enough and in enough markets yet.
    03-27-13 09:09 AM
  4. kcdist's Avatar
    Agreed. I suspect the best case is stable at 79 million users.. no way they're at 85M! BB10 hasn't been out long enough and in enough markets yet.
    I agree that the Z10 hasn't been out long enough to be a factor, but I'm thinking about all the BB5, BB6 and BB7 devices that were not previously counted - especially in developing countries. Think about all the re-conditioned devices that are re-sold in devoping countries and used as just plain phones and SMS devices. In accordance with the Management Discussion, these Blackberry devices have the potential to add revenue for BBRY, and thus would be included in the count.....

    Essentially, BBRY is looking at the total number of Blackberries that are in use, as opposed to just those they make monthly subscriber fees from. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this group of devices could significant.
    03-27-13 09:21 AM
  5. gordo51's Avatar
    If I understand this correctly I he never been counted as a BB user since I never paid a monthly fee but now I will be counted as I am a BlackBerry World customer? That makes sense toe and I can see it increasing the numbers for BlackBerry isera.

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-13 02:34 PM
  6. mcmolineux's Avatar
    If they count devices with BB World accounts, wouldn't that result in them counting Playbooks too? (Not that there are that many of them...)
    03-27-13 06:52 PM
  7. Mallet21's Avatar
    If they count devices with BB World accounts, wouldn't that result in them counting Playbooks too? (Not that there are that many of them...)
    It would only help the numbers if those PB users didn't already have a phone.
    03-27-13 06:58 PM
  8. Munchito1976's Avatar
    analysts will ask what the subscriber number is this quarter using the old calculation method, or ask what the delta is between the old and new calculations. BB won't pull the wool over anyones eyes on this point.
    Shanerredflag and Bbnivende like this.
    03-27-13 07:05 PM
  9. Bbnivende's Avatar
    analysts will ask what the subscriber number is this quarter using the old calculation method, or ask what the delta is between the old and new calculations. BB won't pull the wool over anyones eyes on this point.
    They shouldn't have to ask. BB needs to be transparent for their investors.
    Munchito1976 likes this.
    03-27-13 07:21 PM
  10. sosumi11's Avatar
    Since September 2010, BlackBerry (RIM) stopped using subscriber count as a metric because subscriber growth slowed and RIM kept posting disappointing numbers.

    Now it seems like the subscriber base is the only stat that matters.

    Numbers never lie.
    But torture them and they will confess to anything.
    03-27-13 07:45 PM
  11. gordo51's Avatar
    Well if they could balance a drop in paying subscribers with a large number of users that would help.

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-13 07:56 PM
  12. BBhombre's Avatar
    This is like Apple or Android counting as subscribers any iPod, Iphone or galaxy device that has ever logged into the app store, Itunes or something.

    It is no secret that other manufacturers don't count subscribers because the number is irrelevant to their business model. It is very relevant to RIM/BBRY's business model because of the huge profit resulting from carrier fees per user. If this is true and they will count anyone that uses their devices as subscribers just because they might buy something but pay no carrier fees, this screams of deceit and desperation.

    Do they think people industry analysts and shareholders are stupid?
    03-27-13 08:00 PM
  13. pandapurple's Avatar
    All it needs to happen, is for subscribers numbers to "Beat Expectations" and the stock price will soar. Conversely, the opposite holds true too!

    Posted via CB10
    BBNation likes this.
    03-27-13 08:01 PM
  14. BBhombre's Avatar
    if the stock market jumps on an artificially bloated subscriber number and then on the call analysts realize that this subscriber number has been rendered meaningless it will tank. I appreciate this find because it may present a terrific day trade.
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    03-27-13 08:03 PM
  15. mrfreetruth's Avatar
    if the stock market jumps on an artificially bloated subscriber number and then on the call analysts realize that this subscriber number has been rendered meaningless it will tank. I appreciate this find because it may present a terrific day trade.
    Looks like someone is short BBRY or just trolling. It's obvious. try again
    03-27-13 08:33 PM
  16. kcdist's Avatar
    Do they think people industry analysts and shareholders are stupid?
    Don't be obtuse.

    BBRY is in a quandry with the Subscriber metric. Historically, Subscribers meant monthly fees per user. However, with the new model, retail Z10 owners aren't generating a monthly fee. To include only Subscribers generating a monthly fee, BBRY would obviously publish a lower number than the previous quarter, and The Street would be screaming from the rooftops about declining BBRY usage when that obviously wouldn't be the case. The press being as it is, the headlines certainly wouldn't include the nuance about Subsciber # not including new BB10 sales.......

    Momentum is important. Even if the rest of the numbers were good, the media would focus on the declining Subscriber base. Negativity that Subscribers are 'abandoning' BBRY could adversely effect retail purchasing decisions.

    BBRY has made the right call. They advertised the move well in advance. If the highly paid 'analysts' fail to differentiate the difference between the calculation in the numbers.....it's their loss, and the opportunity for a short term gain by some more astute investors.
    W Hoa likes this.
    03-27-13 08:41 PM
  17. green_ember's Avatar
    It's no more misleading than Android reporting "Activations" without differentiating replacement handsets from new customers...
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-27-13 08:47 PM
  18. weekengyip's Avatar
    Honestly.. the subscribers no. is likely to far and hence TH and gang has mentioned of intentions to develop softwares for both Apple and android services which should somewhat be similar to Good Technologies
    03-27-13 08:50 PM
  19. Munchito1976's Avatar
    This can and will be a spin candidate for bears and shorts tomorrow should BB not be prepared to address at least at a high level how they are going to replace the bleeding service revenue base.

    BB specified 'new opportunities' as the reason for the change in calculation last quarter, so I expect they will have a good answer or visibility on this front tomorrow.
    03-27-13 10:11 PM
  20. the_sleuth's Avatar
    Actually subscribers dipped by 3 million to 76 million according to the news release this morning:

    BlackBerry Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results for Fiscal 2013 - Yahoo! Finance

    Nevertheless, this should be the bottom. 1 million Z10 shipped. Positive momentum from here onwards. Although BBRY is halted this morning.....
    03-28-13 06:12 AM

Similar Threads

  1. Q10 for T-Mobile / STL 100-5
    By lgfaver in forum Buy, Sell, Trade - Sold / Archived
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 08-10-13, 05:07 AM
  2. Which 10.2 leak is better for the Q10?
    By Rame Khaleel in forum BB10 Leaked/Beta OS
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 08-02-13, 08:09 PM
  3. Need repair service for Torch 9800.
    By gcabroad in forum BlackBerry Torch 9800
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 08-02-13, 07:12 PM
  4. Can I Download the Latest MR for the z10? from a Leak?
    By non-vtec in forum BlackBerry 10 OS
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 08-02-13, 07:04 PM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD