07-04-13 09:04 AM
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  1. peter9477's Avatar
    What? I didn't ask anything lol.

    It's only 'more likely' as that's how the market is viewing it. If sales improve of bb10 devices then yes stock in theory will rise, but I will tell you now if they make a loss and device sales don't pick up then the whole 'priced in' drop is gonna look very shallow.
    Sorry, "ask" should have been just "comment".

    As for it dropping again next quarter, it sounds like you're suggesting that, after analysts weigh in with their updated predictions, if the company exactly meets those estimates the stock price will still drop after the next ER? Is that a common sort of outcome when a company nails analyst estimates dead-on?
    dusdal likes this.
    07-02-13 10:11 AM
  2. BBThemes's Avatar
    Sorry, "ask" should have been just "comment".

    As for it dropping again next quarter, it sounds like you're suggesting that, after analysts weigh in with their updated predictions, if the company exactly meets those estimates the stock price will still drop after the next ER? Is that a common sort of outcome when a company nails analyst estimates dead-on?
    Well depends which analyst and what estimate as they don't agree so some will be pleased and some won't. That's life of course.

    As a question, what bb10 shipments are analysts forecasting?

    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 10:38 AM
  3. moretreelessbush's Avatar
    One thing that could work in BBRY favor is the number of shares short.

    Shares Outstanding: 524.16M
    Float: 493.63M
    Shares Short (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: 182.60M
    Short Ratio (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: 8.80

    38% of float are shorted, a short squeeze can lead to a sharp rise, but I don't see a catalyst for that to happen short term.
    07-02-13 01:58 PM
  4. peter9477's Avatar
    One thing that could work in BBRY favor is the number of shares short.
    ...
    38% of float are shorted, a short squeeze can lead to a sharp rise, but I don't see a catalyst for that to happen short term.
    The longs had their fingers and toes crossed for good news in the earnings report, since everyone already knew about the short interest. (It's even higher, once you include the TSX data where it trades as well.)

    As you say, there's no catalyst in sight for this to happen right now though, so it remains just a pipe dream.
    07-02-13 02:15 PM
  5. greggebhardt's Avatar
    A buyout.


    Sent From My New IPad using Tapatalk
    Well if the best hope for an BBRY investor is a buyout . . . could we call that the upside we are looking for?

    I can imagine the offer from another company when we are in the $8-$9 range.
    07-02-13 02:47 PM
  6. MartyMcfly's Avatar
    Well if the best hope for an BBRY investor is a buyout . . . could we call that the upside we are looking for?

    I can imagine the offer from another company when we are in the $8-$9 range.
    In my opinion, yes. I don't see what can possibly drive the price up at this point (outside of buy out talks). The z10 and Q10 released and no one noticed/care. The company is a mess right now. They don't have an identity, they want to cater to consumers (they're not good at that), and they want to cater to corporate America (they're not good at that either). BlackBerry needs a complete make over, otherwise it's either a buyout or bankruptcy.

    Sent from my Galaxy S4 using Tapatalk
    07-02-13 04:10 PM
  7. njblackberry's Avatar
    One thing that could work in BBRY favor is the number of shares short.

    Shares Outstanding: 524.16M
    Float: 493.63M
    Shares Short (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: 182.60M
    Short Ratio (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: 8.80

    38% of float are shorted, a short squeeze can lead to a sharp rise, but I don't see a catalyst for that to happen short term.
    I believe this has been thought about (and posted here) every day for the last 3-6 months. Those shorts. Praying for a short squeeze.

    Bad call guys. Shareholders got trampled.
    07-02-13 04:13 PM
  8. Enyigma's Avatar
    .....?

    Yes, what was quoted was fact because it was from the financial statements.... so.... he was right...

    Both revenues and device sales grew. The definition of growth.
    The quote was referenced which is good but does not make the figure a fact except perhaps in the eyes of the press. When a company is in trouble and the investigations begin, those "facts" are often changed when the company issues a revised set of financial statements, often years later.

    Stated sales for the quarter are not sufficient to either produce a profit or stem the bleeding of customers and margins are shrinking quickly. That is about as fact as the part about cash going up.

    Interesting note from Credit Suisse this afternoon pointing out that RIM faces a shortage of working capital that was not immediately apparent in the financial statements. Their analysis shows the need for working capital over the coming quarters will lead to a cash drawdown of CAD$350M for each of the coming quarters holding all other variables constant.

    http://cawidgets.morningstar.ca/Arti...=1372817088562
    07-02-13 09:13 PM
  9. dusdal's Avatar
    I am willing to bet that there is a much better chance that the statements are up to GAAP standards versus purposeful lies.

    You have zero evidence to the contrary.

    This all began when you guessed at a book value and were off by a mile (less than cash in the bank).



    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 09:28 PM
  10. dusdal's Avatar
    How is rising revenues not a fact?

    If you look at Last quarter's revenues and compare them to this quarter, you will see that this quarter is a larger number.

    You deny this? Or are you suggesting they did not sell more $$ in product but put the larger # in anyways?

    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 09:31 PM
  11. BBThemes's Avatar
    I am willing to bet that there is a much better chance that the statements are up to GAAP standards versus purposeful lies.

    You have zero evidence to the contrary.

    This all began when you guessed at a book value and were off by a mile (less than cash in the bank).



    Posted via CB10
    actually, right now probably isn't the time to be talking about BlackBerry and lies. PlayBook with 60 days for email, leapfrogging the competition, and no BB10.

    like ya say, no proof they`d lie to anyone. to be clear im not making a judgement on the figures they have reported as to if they are lies or not, simply pointing out the multiple times they haven't been straight before to give context.
    07-02-13 10:50 PM
  12. Enyigma's Avatar
    I am willing to bet that there is a much better chance that the statements are up to GAAP standards versus purposeful lies.

    You have zero evidence to the contrary.

    This all began when you guessed at a book value and were off by a mile (less than cash in the bank).



    Posted via CB10
    So what? If you think this is a good investment, go for it. I don't and given the market dive on the stock, most other investors don't. I still think this company is worth less than $5 a share going forward and less than that as time moves on unless there are big changes made.

    As to GAAP standards, again, so what? They change over time as the definition of "fair reflection of financial position" changes over time. As for the financial statements being reviewed and given an opinion by one of the big auditing houses, it has been proven time and time again that these opinions aren't worth the paper they have been written on. Often the pubic won't be informed of how bad thngs are until the firm suddenly declares a crisis of one form or another and starts revising past financial statements.

    I pointed out the result of an investment house's review of the financial statements and they revealed some financial finessing going on that hide the real story behind RIM's financial stability going forward, There are worrisome trends hidden through "smoothing of amortization and an unsustainable optimization of working capital" and they show that the company has a lot less time to turn things around than one might believe by glossing over the headline numbers.

    I'm not talking about opinions from tech reviewers about "sales channels checks" and speculation about possible revenue going forward that have been all over the map. I am talking about the analysis by accountants of the financial statements released by RIM itself in which you seem to place great faith. Add to that the problems with leadership and management, poor customer relations, excessive secrecy, inability to deliver and execute on time, poor marketing strategy and so on and it doesn't take a genius to figure out this company is not viable in the long term. Sometimes a failing company can be turned around but it takes a lot of effort from all and not a statement by a CEO to be patient and wait for some miracle to come that never seems to be realised.
    Last edited by Enyigma; 07-03-13 at 01:45 PM.
    dusdal likes this.
    07-03-13 04:38 AM
  13. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
    - Albert Einstein
    Isn't that the 5th time I read this exact same quote from you ?
    lol
    dusdal, spike12, _dimi_ and 1 others like this.
    07-03-13 04:49 AM
  14. njblackberry's Avatar
    Yes, and people still go out and prove it correct every day.
    JeepBB and mikeo007 like this.
    07-03-13 05:23 AM
  15. Fuzzballz's Avatar
    OP, nobody is going to stop you from giving your money away. Buy Buy Buy!
    JeepBB likes this.
    07-03-13 05:36 AM
  16. dusdal's Avatar
    So what? If you think this is a good investment, go for it. I don't and given the market dive on the stock, most other investors don't. I still think this company is worth less than $5 a share going forward and less than that as time moves on unless there are big changes made.

    As to GAAP standards, again, so what? They change over time as the definition of "fair reflection of financial position" changes over time. As for the financial statements being reviewed and given an opinion by one of the big auditing houses, it has been proven time and time again that these opinions aren't worth the paper they have been written on. Often the pubic won't be informed of how bad thngs are until the firm suddenly declares a crisis of one form or another and starts revising past fnancial statements.

    I pointed out the result of an investment house's review of the financial statements and they revealed some financial finessing going on that hide the real story behind RIM's financial stability going forward, There are worrisome trends hidden through "smoothing of amortization and an unsustainable optimization of working capital" and they show that the company has a lot less time to turn things around than one might believe by glossing over the headline numbers.

    I'm not talking about opinions from tech reviewers about "sales channels checks" and speculation about possible revenue going forward that have been all over the map. I am talking about the analysis by accountants of the financial statements released by RIM itself in which you seem to place great faith. Add to that the problems with leadership and management, poor customer relations, excessive secrecy, inability to deliver and execute on time, poor marketing strategy and so on and it doesn't take a genius to figure out this company is not viable in the long term. Sometimes a failing company can be turned around but it takes a lot of effort from all and not a statement by a CEO to be patient and wait for some miracle
    Okay. So that we're clear.

    You do now see that both revenues and unit sales increased from last quarter, right?

    Posted via CB10
    kfh227 likes this.
    07-03-13 08:42 AM
  17. Marc_Paradise's Avatar
    For the optimists here (alas I no longer count myself among you), this seems appropriate today:

    (NSFW - language)
    bekkay likes this.
    07-03-13 10:22 AM
  18. Enyigma's Avatar
    Okay. So that we're clear.

    You do now see that both revenues and unit sales increased from last quarter, right?

    Posted via CB10
    As I have said before, only looking at sales increase from the previous quarter is selective reading of the financial statements. Revenues and sales may be up from the previous quarter, but it was up from a dismal quarter for sales. Sales are clearly less than what TH was implying would be the case when he stated sales exceeded his expectations but then would not give figures or estimates. Those expectations must have been very low indeed and nowhere near the volume needed to break even.

    More meaningful is whether RIM can hold on to past customers and the sales volume shows it is not coming close to total sales for the same quarter last year and total units in use have gone down.
    07-03-13 01:53 PM
  19. dusdal's Avatar
    As I have said before, only looking at sales increase from the previous quarter is selective reading of the financial statements. Revenues and sales may be up from the previous quarter, but it was up from a dismal quarter for sales. Sales are clearly less than what TH was implying would be the case when he stated sales exceeded his expectations but then would not give figures or estimates. Those expectations must have been very low indeed and nowhere near the volume needed to break even.

    More meaningful is whether RIM can hold on to past customers and the sales volume shows it is not coming close to total sales for the same quarter last year and total units in use have gone down.
    Ok good.

    So there is growth.

    Cheers
    07-03-13 02:12 PM
  20. kfh227's Avatar
    Enigma, you do know that the tax benefit is recurring, correct? So in that article no adjustments on fcf should have been made in regards to it. This quarters fcf was $200m not negative $350m.

    Having said that FCF next quarter does worry me and may result on cash burn. Then again I also don't know what is up with inventory levels. I think they may be high due to the USA launch of the Q10 that happened a week after the quarter ended.

    Accounts payable are now more days out. So, this is bad how? If a business can do this without those waiting complaining, this is a good thing. To assume it will get worse is just as easy to say even more days out will occur which is good. It's a moot point.

    In the end a lack of a tax break next quarter will hurt but more countries will have the q10 out including a nearly full quarter of USA sales.

    Just saying....

    The unknown is if bb10 is going to start to show true signs of growth. They really need to get 3.1+ million bb10 units shipped.

    Posted via CB10
    07-03-13 04:10 PM
  21. kfh227's Avatar
    As I have said before, only looking at sales increase from the previous quarter is selective reading of the financial statements. Revenues and sales may be up from the previous quarter, but it was up from a dismal quarter for sales. Sales are clearly less than what TH was implying would be the case when he stated sales exceeded his expectations but then would not give figures or estimates. Those expectations must have been very low indeed and nowhere near the volume needed to break even.

    More meaningful is whether RIM can hold on to past customers and the sales volume shows it is not coming close to total sales for the same quarter last year and total units in use have gone down.
    A full quarter of bb10 sales and a revenue increase are a good thing.

    The next question is how will bes add to revenues in a few quarters. Each android and apple phone managed on bes is better than just one bb10 sale.

    Posted via CB10
    dusdal and spike12 like this.
    07-03-13 04:14 PM
  22. kfh227's Avatar
    Was thinking about the tax beneift as it relates to FCF. What really needs to be done is normalization. What is the expected tax benefit going forward? It's about $400 million a year (better to be approximately right than precisely wrong). Per quarter that is about $100 million. If FCF was $200m this quarter ignoring that number, we are looking at $100m positive on a normalized basis. Now, that is if everything remains constant going forward.

    BBRY simply needs to sell more BB10 phones. A million sold should add over $50 million to FCF. Maybe due to Q5 sales not that much but for a ROM (Rough Order of Magnitude), that is fine. Then there is the eventual monetization of BES 10. BES is similar. 1 million phones managed on BES will contribute $100m to Revenues. We should be able to get atleast 25% of that to hit the FCF number.

    Things are not all that gloomy. If we can get to 5 million BB10 units per quarter and have several million iOS and Android units under BES, we could be looking at some very nice FCF numbers.

    People just need to not be short sited.
    07-03-13 06:59 PM
  23. Enyigma's Avatar
    Enigma, you do know that the tax benefit is recurring, correct? So in that article no adjustments on fcf should have been made in regards to it. This quarters fcf was $200m not negative $350m.

    Having said that FCF next quarter does worry me and may result on cash burn. Then again I also don't know what is up with inventory levels. I think they may be high due to the USA launch of the Q10 that happened a week after the quarter ended.

    Accounts payable are now more days out. So, this is bad how? If a business can do this without those waiting complaining, this is a good thing. To assume it will get worse is just as easy to say even more days out will occur which is good. It's a moot point.

    In the end a lack of a tax break next quarter will hurt but more countries will have the q10 out including a nearly full quarter of USA sales.

    Just saying....

    The unknown is if bb10 is going to start to show true signs of growth. They really need to get 3.1+ million bb10 units shipped.

    Posted via CB10
    You did pick up on some other worrying trends. Accounts payabe stretching up to 50 days from 30 adds liabilities to the balance sheet and brinnging them back down to 30 should make future debts look better though cash would be lower. Delaying paying creditors is usually a sign that a company is in trouble. Certainly the companies owed the money don't appreciate clients paying late and this may affect relationships with suppliers going forward. Suppliers might refuse to do any more business if there a risk they won't get paid or will only get paid a few cents on the dollar. Maybe big firms can dictate terms to suppliers, but can RIM be such a company now? Is it still big enough?
    07-03-13 07:38 PM
  24. Enyigma's Avatar
    When one focuses exclusively on growth, I am reminded of a statement of a former CEO of Nortel when questioned why someone should invest in his company when it had shown losses for the last few quarters. He replied that profits weren't important. It was all about growth and Nortel was growing. I was appalled at such an answer.

    Two months later, share prices collapsed to half the peak trading values they had reached.
    07-03-13 07:49 PM
  25. dusdal's Avatar
    If you are referring to me, I am only repeating myself because you said there was "no growth" a while back and I wanted to ensure you knew that was incorrect.

    If you are referring to BlackBerry, I would suggest they have focused more on fiscal constraint more than anything.

    Cheers.

    Posted via CB10
    07-03-13 08:35 PM
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