07-04-13 09:04 AM
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  1. costas1966's Avatar
    Here's how I'm thinking...I bought in at 14.90 per share a few months back, and if I buy an equal share amount at 10.46 a share, I average my buy-in price in the middle.

    I am no Wall Street expert, but I DO believe that bbry will rebound in the long term...and will do very well, at that!

    People can quote analysts and experts all they want, but nobody knows what's going to happen 6 months from now, or even 3 months from now...the smartphone market is simply too volatile.

    I think it's unfair that people are blasting bbry at this point, simply because the company has spent so much money on the BB10 launch, that it will take 2 or 3 quarters to recover that investment. Let's not forget how the stock shorts have sabotaged (yes, I say sabotaged, because that's what it is) the company and the stock price because they got it wrong and would lose tons of cash as a result.

    The US carriers and stores have clearly been anti-blackberry, and it shows. As far as I'm concerned, it's Blackberry who needs to start a few lawsuits, not the other way around.

    I'm a user and an investor, and I see great things from this company. I'm convinced now is a time to buy, not sell...things are turning around.

    Just my. 02
    Michail Karteros likes this.
    06-29-13 03:59 AM
  2. Jakob Greve's Avatar
    Your path strikes me as dangerous I did buy some stock yesterday, But I think that if you're long on BlackBerry you gotta be prepared to wait out and willing to risk to some extend, however I agree with fundamental analysis to buy on optimum pessimissm and go against the market
    06-29-13 04:10 AM
  3. costas1966's Avatar
    I truly believe that in a year, we will be having more of a celebration, not a wake...lol.
    06-29-13 04:22 AM
  4. branch83wr's Avatar
    Why buy now when the stock is likely to go down even more when they post another loss next quarter? Even if what you hope comes true it seems like it would be smarter to wait.
    ccbs likes this.
    06-29-13 04:31 AM
  5. EchuOkan1's Avatar
    Agree ; I am a contrarian and also brought more shares.

    The investment strategy you describe is dollar cost average.

    Posted via CB10
    dusdal likes this.
    06-29-13 04:31 AM
  6. Jakob Greve's Avatar
    @Branch83wr

    If you belive that you would just buy now and sell prior to the next big event / earnings report, the stock was sky high prior to bb10 launch 18 something I sold mine @ 17 something bought some apple and sold those with a revenue back then.... But then it was almost certain that the stock was too high the talk of the town was mostly flying cars and dragons.

    That being said I don't like the stratagy a lot in generel of selling of stocks prior to earnings report. It will help the shorter giving a lot of sellers (a given to buy back cheap and close your position at no cost) While I actually like shortejrs I don't like the sheep running their arrends
    06-29-13 05:19 AM
  7. BBThemes's Avatar
    I think it's unfair that people are blasting bbry at this point
    err what? from a financial perspective they've hardly been great over the last year, multiple loss reporting quarters, stock writedowns, and declining service revenue to name but a few metrics. The other big problem I see, is that last Q their gross margin was 40.1%, this Q it was 33.9%. that's not moving in the right direction especially when you have all these new BB10 devices coming out, don't forget 40% of device sales were BB10 devices so its not a great indicator for the future.

    Then lets look at the subs and sales numbers, Sales were poor. im sorry but if you want someone to sugar coat it then fine, but your talking about investing real money, so real facts need to be taken into account. They sold 6.8M devices last Q, of which 2.7M were BB10 devices. Now lets put that 2.7M (and of course the 6.8M total) into some perspective against its competitors.

    Q1 2013 figures
    Samsung - 69.4M smartphones
    Apple - 37.4M iPhones
    LG - 10.3M smartphones.
    Nokia - Lumia did 5.6M, total number was higher but lumia is their top line.

    So, what we are clearly seeing is that BB10 (so far at least) isn't even able to compete against Lumia devices. obviously that doesn't say anything for how it affects the bottom line as Lumia GM could be a lot lower, but when you app catalogue is mainly based on the size of the distribution of your users, less devices is worse.

    And lastly, what glimmer of hope did we get offered on the earnings call? well they decided the PlayBook wouldn't get BB10, they forecast a loss next Q and they announced a new BBOS device. lets just quickly gloss over those.

    1) The PlayBook was (arguably) bought by the more loyal and core BlackBerry fans, and sold about 2.3M units over its lifespan. So whats the last thing you want to do to your core loyal supporters that have had to endure stuff like `email in 60 days` and a BlackBerry device with no BBM? well, I`ll leave that as a rhetorical one for ya.

    2) They forecast a loss. given how stocks go down when companies make a loss then predict another loss, saying to put your money there probably isn't the best judgement of timing.

    3) A new BBOS device, 'Kepp Moving Forward' is apparently the mantra. If a BBOS device is forwards from BB10, then that's truly not a good sign.

    In conclusion, by all means feel free to pop your own money in, its yours to do as you wish with, but to advise others when realistically the short to medium term signs aren't good is, with the best will in the world, a little misguided.
    TgeekB, tsells, 1oo1 and 10 others like this.
    06-29-13 06:12 AM
  8. costas1966's Avatar
    err what? from a financial perspective they've hardly been great over the last year, multiple loss reporting quarters, stock writedowns, and declining service revenue to name but a few metrics. The other big problem I see, is that last Q their gross margin was 40.1%, this Q it was 33.9%. that's not moving in the right direction especially when you have all these new BB10 devices coming out, don't forget 40% of device sales were BB10 devices so its not a great indicator for the future.

    Then lets look at the subs and sales numbers, Sales were poor. im sorry but if you want someone to sugar coat it then fine, but your talking about investing real money, so real facts need to be taken into account. They sold 6.8M devices last Q, of which 2.7M were BB10 devices. Now lets put that 2.7M (and of course the 6.8M total) into some perspective against its competitors.

    Q1 2013 figures
    Samsung - 69.4M smartphones
    Apple - 37.4M iPhones
    LG - 10.3M smartphones.
    Nokia - Lumia did 5.6M, total number was higher but lumia is their top line.

    So, what we are clearly seeing is that BB10 (so far at least) isn't even able to compete against Lumia devices. obviously that doesn't say anything for how it affects the bottom line as Lumia GM could be a lot lower, but when you app catalogue is mainly based on the size of the distribution of your users, less devices is worse.

    And lastly, what glimmer of hope did we get offered on the earnings call? well they decided the PlayBook wouldn't get BB10, they forecast a loss next Q and they announced a new BBOS device. lets just quickly gloss over those.

    1) The PlayBook was (arguably) bought by the more loyal and core BlackBerry fans, and sold about 2.3M units over its lifespan. So whats the last thing you want to do to your core loyal supporters that have had to endure stuff like `email in 60 days` and a BlackBerry device with no BBM? well, I`ll leave that as a rhetorical one for ya.

    2) They forecast a loss. given how stocks go down when companies make a loss then predict another loss, saying to put your money there probably isn't the best judgement of timing.

    3) A new BBOS device, 'Kepp Moving Forward' is apparently the mantra. If a BBOS device is forwards from BB10, then that's truly not a good sign.

    In conclusion, by all means feel free to pop your own money in, its yours to do as you wish with, but to advise others when realistically the short to medium term signs aren't good is, with the best will in the world, a little misguided.
    Thanks for the reply, but all I'm going to say in response is that a turnaround doesn't happen on a dime.

    The posted loss was expected, as is the upcoming one, but that's called an investment, in my books...the return is going to be in subsequent quarters.

    Just wait...
    06-29-13 06:29 AM
  9. darkehawke's Avatar
    I wont touch them now.
    Blackberry has shown that they can not adapt to their status as minor players and will suffer for it.
    just my opinion
    06-29-13 06:31 AM
  10. njblackberry's Avatar
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
    - Albert Einstein
    mikeo007, bekkay, aniym and 2 others like this.
    06-29-13 06:32 AM
  11. costas1966's Avatar
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
    - Albert Einstein
    Hahahaha....yup...
    06-29-13 06:33 AM
  12. TgeekB's Avatar
    Thanks for the reply, but all I'm going to say in response is that a turnaround doesn't happen on a dime.

    The posted loss was expected, as is the upcoming one, but that's called an investment, in my books...the return is going to be in subsequent quarters.

    Just wait...
    That seems to be blackberry's mantra over the last few years, just wait. I am done waiting.
    06-29-13 08:17 AM
  13. MartyMcfly's Avatar
    I truly believe that in a year, we will be having more of a celebration, not a wake...lol.
    People were saying this in 2011...

    Sent from my Galaxy S4 using Tapatalk
    Saiga and agp101 like this.
    06-29-13 08:19 AM
  14. MartyMcfly's Avatar
    Take a step back and view where the tech world is going. BlackBerry just released a device that should have came out 5 years ago. Apple/google is on the verge of releasing new devices, they're dabbing into wearable technology, tvs, video games, etc etc, meanwhile blackberry is still playing catch-up in the smartphone race. OS10 users have to bootleg old android apps for Christ sakes. The company is a mess right now, and it's showing from the ceo, marketing director, developer relations department, software development department, and the device design department.

    Sent from my Galaxy S4 using Tapatalk
    06-29-13 08:29 AM
  15. jay64's Avatar
    averaging down is a poor strategy on any stock. don't fall in love, it is just a stock. the omission of actual through sales is a big tell on the stock's future. If you want to mitigate your losses, shorting equal to your current long position might be your best bet (short against the box). That way your hedged up and down. falling in love with a stock is almost always financially fatal.
    BB10fanatic and raremage like this.
    06-29-13 12:12 PM
  16. dusdal's Avatar
    Take a step back and view where the tech world is going. BlackBerry just released a device that should have came out 5 years ago. Apple/google is on the verge of releasing new devices, they're dabbing into wearable technology, tvs, video games, etc etc, meanwhile blackberry is still playing catch-up in the smartphone race. OS10 users have to bootleg old android apps for Christ sakes. The company is a mess right now, and it's showing from the ceo, marketing director, developer relations department, software development department, and the device design department.

    Sent from my Galaxy S4 using Tapatalk
    If the Z10 with bb10 came out 5 years ago, at this price, it would blow the competition away.

    Posted via CB10
    06-29-13 08:56 PM
  17. dusdal's Avatar
    Why buy now when the stock is likely to go down even more when they post another loss next quarter? Even if what you hope comes true it seems like it would be smarter to wait.
    A loss next quarter is already priced in. You won't lose unless they lose more money than is expected.

    Posted via CB10
    peter9477 and bekkay like this.
    06-29-13 09:09 PM
  18. Enyigma's Avatar
    Catch a falling knife? Not me.

    BB10 was supposed to be the game changer. It isn't and waiting won't change that outcome. They couldn't even scale the BB10 OS to work on the PlayBook so it could very well be that insufficient development resources remain at RIM for future product improvements.

    More interesting are the dismal sales in the US. Americans don't take kindly to being mistreated as customers and have long memories in that regard. Past mistreatment of customers is coming back to haunt them. Current shoddy treatment of PlayBook owners shows the company has learned nothing in that regard. Now they have angered another 2 million potential customers for some of their other products (6 at most going forward of which one is a legacy BB7 device), loyal customers they could not afford to lose.

    I don't think BB / BBRY is a good investment going forward. There are just too many negatives, many of them of their own doing with no sign of this changing.

    If the stock falls well below book value, it might be interesting if only because of the remote possibility that RIM might become a takeover target.
    Last edited by Enyigma; 06-30-13 at 12:01 AM.
    06-29-13 09:47 PM
  19. dusdal's Avatar
    Catch a falling knife? Not me.

    BB10 was supposed to be the game changer. It isn't and waiting won't change that outcome. They couldn't even scale the BB10 OS to work on the PlayBook so it could very well be that insufficient development resurces remain at RIM for future product improvements.

    More interesting are the dismal sales in the US. Americans don't take kindly to being mistreated as customers and have long memories in that regard. Past mistreatment of customers is coming back to haunt them. Current shoddy treatment of PlayBook owners shows the company has learned nothing in that regard. Now they have angered another 2 million potential customers for some of their other products (6 at most going forward of which one is a legacy BB7 device), loyal customers they could not afford to lose.

    I don't think BB / BBRY is a good investment going forward. There are just too many negatives, many of them of their own doing with no sign of this changing.

    If the stock falls well below book value, it might be interesting if only because of the remote possibility that RIM might become a takeover target.
    Its well below book value now.
    06-29-13 10:49 PM
  20. Enyigma's Avatar
    Its well below book value now.
    Really? I was figuring on the $5 range for book value. I suppose it depends on how one values the patents.
    06-29-13 11:21 PM
  21. CharlieHipHop's Avatar
    If the Z10 with bb10 came out 5 years ago, at this price, it would blow the competition away.

    Posted via CB10
    It blows them away now.

    "Forgive them for they know not what they do."

    A lot of people who have not used BB10 seem to think it's a copy of iOS or Android. As we well know, it's not.

    As to the OP, I'd just say that one should never invest based on emotional attachment to a brand. That being said, there is a lot of upside right now, much of it provided by the shorts who will be buying shares and cashing in soon. I would not be surprised to see a mini squeeze next week but certainly wouldn't count on it.

    Posted via CB10
    dusdal likes this.
    06-29-13 11:29 PM
  22. Dave Bourque's Avatar
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
    - Albert Einstein
    Yeah because bb10 is doing the same thing over....

    Sent from my BB10 smartphone.
    06-29-13 11:31 PM
  23. BBThemes's Avatar
    Really? I was figuring on the $5 range for book value. I suppose it depends on how one values the patents.
    Don't forget to work in the cash position on a book value call. Current market cap is $5.48bn which includes $3.1bn of cash and monetary assets. That means the noc, services and non cash assets like building patents etc are worth just $2.38bn.


    Posted via CB10
    dusdal likes this.
    06-29-13 11:36 PM
  24. BBThemes's Avatar
    That being said, there is a lot of upside right now
    Where's the up side right now? Seriously.

    Posted via CB10
    06-29-13 11:37 PM
  25. MartyMcfly's Avatar
    Where's the up side right now? Seriously.

    Posted via CB10
    A buyout.


    Sent From My New IPad using Tapatalk
    fedakd likes this.
    06-30-13 12:04 AM
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