Stock tumble is an opportunity...buy more!!
- What? I didn't ask anything lol.
It's only 'more likely' as that's how the market is viewing it. If sales improve of bb10 devices then yes stock in theory will rise, but I will tell you now if they make a loss and device sales don't pick up then the whole 'priced in' drop is gonna look very shallow.
As for it dropping again next quarter, it sounds like you're suggesting that, after analysts weigh in with their updated predictions, if the company exactly meets those estimates the stock price will still drop after the next ER? Is that a common sort of outcome when a company nails analyst estimates dead-on?dusdal likes this.07-02-13 10:11 AMLike 1 - Sorry, "ask" should have been just "comment".
As for it dropping again next quarter, it sounds like you're suggesting that, after analysts weigh in with their updated predictions, if the company exactly meets those estimates the stock price will still drop after the next ER? Is that a common sort of outcome when a company nails analyst estimates dead-on?
As a question, what bb10 shipments are analysts forecasting?
Posted via CB1007-02-13 10:38 AMLike 0 - One thing that could work in BBRY favor is the number of shares short.
Shares Outstanding: 524.16M
Float: 493.63M
Shares Short (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: 182.60M
Short Ratio (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: 8.80
38% of float are shorted, a short squeeze can lead to a sharp rise, but I don't see a catalyst for that to happen short term.07-02-13 01:58 PMLike 0 -
As you say, there's no catalyst in sight for this to happen right now though, so it remains just a pipe dream.07-02-13 02:15 PMLike 0 -
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Sent from my Galaxy S4 using Tapatalk07-02-13 04:10 PMLike 0 - One thing that could work in BBRY favor is the number of shares short.
Shares Outstanding: 524.16M
Float: 493.63M
Shares Short (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: 182.60M
Short Ratio (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: 8.80
38% of float are shorted, a short squeeze can lead to a sharp rise, but I don't see a catalyst for that to happen short term.
Bad call guys. Shareholders got trampled.07-02-13 04:13 PMLike 0 -
Stated sales for the quarter are not sufficient to either produce a profit or stem the bleeding of customers and margins are shrinking quickly. That is about as fact as the part about cash going up.
Interesting note from Credit Suisse this afternoon pointing out that RIM faces a shortage of working capital that was not immediately apparent in the financial statements. Their analysis shows the need for working capital over the coming quarters will lead to a cash drawdown of CAD$350M for each of the coming quarters holding all other variables constant.
http://cawidgets.morningstar.ca/Arti...=137281708856207-02-13 09:13 PMLike 0 - I am willing to bet that there is a much better chance that the statements are up to GAAP standards versus purposeful lies.
You have zero evidence to the contrary.
This all began when you guessed at a book value and were off by a mile (less than cash in the bank).
Posted via CB1007-02-13 09:28 PMLike 0 - How is rising revenues not a fact?
If you look at Last quarter's revenues and compare them to this quarter, you will see that this quarter is a larger number.
You deny this? Or are you suggesting they did not sell more $$ in product but put the larger # in anyways?
Posted via CB1007-02-13 09:31 PMLike 0 - I am willing to bet that there is a much better chance that the statements are up to GAAP standards versus purposeful lies.
You have zero evidence to the contrary.
This all began when you guessed at a book value and were off by a mile (less than cash in the bank).
Posted via CB10
like ya say, no proof they`d lie to anyone. to be clear im not making a judgement on the figures they have reported as to if they are lies or not, simply pointing out the multiple times they haven't been straight before to give context.07-02-13 10:50 PMLike 0 - I am willing to bet that there is a much better chance that the statements are up to GAAP standards versus purposeful lies.
You have zero evidence to the contrary.
This all began when you guessed at a book value and were off by a mile (less than cash in the bank).
Posted via CB10
As to GAAP standards, again, so what? They change over time as the definition of "fair reflection of financial position" changes over time. As for the financial statements being reviewed and given an opinion by one of the big auditing houses, it has been proven time and time again that these opinions aren't worth the paper they have been written on. Often the pubic won't be informed of how bad thngs are until the firm suddenly declares a crisis of one form or another and starts revising past financial statements.
I pointed out the result of an investment house's review of the financial statements and they revealed some financial finessing going on that hide the real story behind RIM's financial stability going forward, There are worrisome trends hidden through "smoothing of amortization and an unsustainable optimization of working capital" and they show that the company has a lot less time to turn things around than one might believe by glossing over the headline numbers.
I'm not talking about opinions from tech reviewers about "sales channels checks" and speculation about possible revenue going forward that have been all over the map. I am talking about the analysis by accountants of the financial statements released by RIM itself in which you seem to place great faith. Add to that the problems with leadership and management, poor customer relations, excessive secrecy, inability to deliver and execute on time, poor marketing strategy and so on and it doesn't take a genius to figure out this company is not viable in the long term. Sometimes a failing company can be turned around but it takes a lot of effort from all and not a statement by a CEO to be patient and wait for some miracle to come that never seems to be realised.Last edited by Enyigma; 07-03-13 at 01:45 PM.
dusdal likes this.07-03-13 04:38 AMLike 1 - 07-03-13 04:49 AMLike 4
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- So what? If you think this is a good investment, go for it. I don't and given the market dive on the stock, most other investors don't. I still think this company is worth less than $5 a share going forward and less than that as time moves on unless there are big changes made.
As to GAAP standards, again, so what? They change over time as the definition of "fair reflection of financial position" changes over time. As for the financial statements being reviewed and given an opinion by one of the big auditing houses, it has been proven time and time again that these opinions aren't worth the paper they have been written on. Often the pubic won't be informed of how bad thngs are until the firm suddenly declares a crisis of one form or another and starts revising past fnancial statements.
I pointed out the result of an investment house's review of the financial statements and they revealed some financial finessing going on that hide the real story behind RIM's financial stability going forward, There are worrisome trends hidden through "smoothing of amortization and an unsustainable optimization of working capital" and they show that the company has a lot less time to turn things around than one might believe by glossing over the headline numbers.
I'm not talking about opinions from tech reviewers about "sales channels checks" and speculation about possible revenue going forward that have been all over the map. I am talking about the analysis by accountants of the financial statements released by RIM itself in which you seem to place great faith. Add to that the problems with leadership and management, poor customer relations, excessive secrecy, inability to deliver and execute on time, poor marketing strategy and so on and it doesn't take a genius to figure out this company is not viable in the long term. Sometimes a failing company can be turned around but it takes a lot of effort from all and not a statement by a CEO to be patient and wait for some miracle
You do now see that both revenues and unit sales increased from last quarter, right?
Posted via CB10kfh227 likes this.07-03-13 08:42 AMLike 1 -
More meaningful is whether RIM can hold on to past customers and the sales volume shows it is not coming close to total sales for the same quarter last year and total units in use have gone down.07-03-13 01:53 PMLike 0 - As I have said before, only looking at sales increase from the previous quarter is selective reading of the financial statements. Revenues and sales may be up from the previous quarter, but it was up from a dismal quarter for sales. Sales are clearly less than what TH was implying would be the case when he stated sales exceeded his expectations but then would not give figures or estimates. Those expectations must have been very low indeed and nowhere near the volume needed to break even.
More meaningful is whether RIM can hold on to past customers and the sales volume shows it is not coming close to total sales for the same quarter last year and total units in use have gone down.
So there is growth.
Cheers07-03-13 02:12 PMLike 0 - Enigma, you do know that the tax benefit is recurring, correct? So in that article no adjustments on fcf should have been made in regards to it. This quarters fcf was $200m not negative $350m.
Having said that FCF next quarter does worry me and may result on cash burn. Then again I also don't know what is up with inventory levels. I think they may be high due to the USA launch of the Q10 that happened a week after the quarter ended.
Accounts payable are now more days out. So, this is bad how? If a business can do this without those waiting complaining, this is a good thing. To assume it will get worse is just as easy to say even more days out will occur which is good. It's a moot point.
In the end a lack of a tax break next quarter will hurt but more countries will have the q10 out including a nearly full quarter of USA sales.
Just saying....
The unknown is if bb10 is going to start to show true signs of growth. They really need to get 3.1+ million bb10 units shipped.
Posted via CB1007-03-13 04:10 PMLike 0 - As I have said before, only looking at sales increase from the previous quarter is selective reading of the financial statements. Revenues and sales may be up from the previous quarter, but it was up from a dismal quarter for sales. Sales are clearly less than what TH was implying would be the case when he stated sales exceeded his expectations but then would not give figures or estimates. Those expectations must have been very low indeed and nowhere near the volume needed to break even.
More meaningful is whether RIM can hold on to past customers and the sales volume shows it is not coming close to total sales for the same quarter last year and total units in use have gone down.
The next question is how will bes add to revenues in a few quarters. Each android and apple phone managed on bes is better than just one bb10 sale.
Posted via CB1007-03-13 04:14 PMLike 2 - Was thinking about the tax beneift as it relates to FCF. What really needs to be done is normalization. What is the expected tax benefit going forward? It's about $400 million a year (better to be approximately right than precisely wrong). Per quarter that is about $100 million. If FCF was $200m this quarter ignoring that number, we are looking at $100m positive on a normalized basis. Now, that is if everything remains constant going forward.
BBRY simply needs to sell more BB10 phones. A million sold should add over $50 million to FCF. Maybe due to Q5 sales not that much but for a ROM (Rough Order of Magnitude), that is fine. Then there is the eventual monetization of BES 10. BES is similar. 1 million phones managed on BES will contribute $100m to Revenues. We should be able to get atleast 25% of that to hit the FCF number.
Things are not all that gloomy. If we can get to 5 million BB10 units per quarter and have several million iOS and Android units under BES, we could be looking at some very nice FCF numbers.
People just need to not be short sited.07-03-13 06:59 PMLike 0 - Enigma, you do know that the tax benefit is recurring, correct? So in that article no adjustments on fcf should have been made in regards to it. This quarters fcf was $200m not negative $350m.
Having said that FCF next quarter does worry me and may result on cash burn. Then again I also don't know what is up with inventory levels. I think they may be high due to the USA launch of the Q10 that happened a week after the quarter ended.
Accounts payable are now more days out. So, this is bad how? If a business can do this without those waiting complaining, this is a good thing. To assume it will get worse is just as easy to say even more days out will occur which is good. It's a moot point.
In the end a lack of a tax break next quarter will hurt but more countries will have the q10 out including a nearly full quarter of USA sales.
Just saying....
The unknown is if bb10 is going to start to show true signs of growth. They really need to get 3.1+ million bb10 units shipped.
Posted via CB1007-03-13 07:38 PMLike 0 - When one focuses exclusively on growth, I am reminded of a statement of a former CEO of Nortel when questioned why someone should invest in his company when it had shown losses for the last few quarters. He replied that profits weren't important. It was all about growth and Nortel was growing. I was appalled at such an answer.
Two months later, share prices collapsed to half the peak trading values they had reached.07-03-13 07:49 PMLike 0 - If you are referring to me, I am only repeating myself because you said there was "no growth" a while back and I wanted to ensure you knew that was incorrect.
If you are referring to BlackBerry, I would suggest they have focused more on fiscal constraint more than anything.
Cheers.
Posted via CB1007-03-13 08:35 PMLike 0
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