07-01-13 12:02 PM
27 12
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  1. jhowe204's Avatar
    Now that the shorts had there way, and the next few quarters should be looking up for BBRY does this mean that the shorts have cashed in and are done manipulating the stock?

    $10.46 is a bargain basement price for BBRY and I can't see it staying that low for long. Why would would anyone short it now. There seems to be some resistance around $15 though, but for now bring on the positive press.

    Posted via CB10 on the Z10
    06-29-13 07:48 PM
  2. Lendo's Avatar
    I'm thinking of buying some more... buy low sell high
    06-29-13 08:27 PM
  3. CharlieHipHop's Avatar
    No, they haven't cashed in. The minute they do, the price will squirt up because cashing in on a short deal means buying shares. It's an interesting dilemma for them. They've shorted so many shares that they've produced a massive latent demand. Oops!

    Posted via CB10
    06-29-13 08:55 PM
  4. jhowe204's Avatar
    Woohoo a squeeze is still imminent...

    Posted via CB10 on the Z10
    06-29-13 09:01 PM
  5. CharlieHipHop's Avatar
    Woohoo a squeeze is still imminent...

    Posted via CB10 on the Z10
    Not necessarily. The stock could still drop more, but some of these guys will want to cash in this week, and when they do, they'll pump up the share price.

    It's still an undervalued company with an excellent portfolio of assets and a solid financial position. The only thing I'm afraid of at this point is some kind of hostile takeover.

    Posted via CB10
    06-29-13 09:12 PM
  6. mikeycollins13's Avatar
    Shorts are emboldened now and in no rush to cover. They see bbry burning through cash pile and won't cover until $6..they will came this thing next week with a barrage of analyst reports.
    06-30-13 03:46 AM
  7. robot_ca's Avatar
    Should that happen, do you think Prem might organize a buy-out to take the company private? You could (in theory) use the company's own cash to finance the buy-out.

    Posted via CB10
    06-30-13 11:33 AM
  8. njblackberry's Avatar
    Someone still has faith in BBRY stock and still wants to blame the shorts...
    Sad.

    Just on Friday, Prem Watsa lost $200mm (unrealized) based on his 31 March holdings. More if he added to his position during the quarter.

    A buyout would be cheap at today's prices (and not the fantasy world of $20, $40 or whatever). He holds 10%. There is $3.1bn cash. The total value of the company (less his 10%) is $4.85bn. Easy for him.

    But would he. Is that his model? Does he want to own an entire company or shake one up?
    06-30-13 11:39 AM
  9. m1a1mg's Avatar
    I think BBRY should be worth around $15 right now.

    That said, there are things to take into account.

    1. Like most people who post here, I am not a financial expert and you shouldn't listen to me. Free advice is worth what you paid for it.

    2. It wasn't that long ago the stock was at $6. I never would have imagined it could have gone that low, but it did. It could always go lower.
    06-30-13 11:39 AM
  10. robot_ca's Avatar
    There would be advantages to the company, at least short term to go private. It would remove the speculator element and the negative news that has surrounded the stock. It would also allow management to focus on their plan making long term decisions without having "analysts" second guessing their every move. Prem could bring in some pension funds or private equity funds to share the risk. Get the company firing on all cylinders, relaunch in a couple of years as a new IPO with much improved financials, track record etc. Thoughts?

    Posted via CB10
    06-30-13 12:05 PM
  11. ray689's Avatar
    There would be advantages to the company, at least short term to go private. It would remove the speculator element and the negative news that has surrounded the stock. It would also allow management to focus on their plan making long term decisions without having "analysts" second guessing their every move. Prem could bring in some pension funds or private equity funds to share the risk. Get the company firing on all cylinders, relaunch in a couple of years as a new IPO with much improved financials, track record etc. Thoughts?

    Posted via CB10
    Nice idea but can't see it happening. Market manipulation and speculation is easier work than turning around a company.

    Posted via Z10
    06-30-13 12:14 PM
  12. kbz1960's Avatar
    The shorts? And the news had nothing to do with the stock price? I guess it's all shorts.
    06-30-13 12:18 PM
  13. ray689's Avatar
    The shorts? And the news had nothing to do with the stock price? I guess it's all shorts.
    So you feel that the stock market is fully representative and not manipulated in any way?

    If that's true how do you explain Netflix having a stock price of over $200 per share? With 36 million users, no propiotory technology, negative operating income in 2012, negative net income in 2012 and an 88% drop in profits in the third quarter of 2012. How is this company worth over $200 while blackberry (I do admit they are having issues at the moment) is worth less than $15?

    If you think the stock market is a fair game you are sadly mistaken. Its all about manipulation for the wealthy. Easy work to transfer more wealth to themselves.

    If Warren Buffet tomorrow decided to drop a billion dollars on blackberry, their stock would rise up considerably. What would have changed? Absolutely nothing from today.

    Posted via Z10
    fedakd likes this.
    06-30-13 12:39 PM
  14. aniym's Avatar
    So you feel that the stock market is fully representative and not manipulated in any way?

    If that's true how do you explain Netflix having a stock price of over $200 per share? With 33 million users, no propiotory technology, negative operating income in 2012, negative net income in 2012 and an 88% drop in profits in the third quarter of 2012. How is this company worth over $200 while blackberry (I do admit they are having issues at the moment) is worth less than $15?

    If you think the stock market is a fair game you are sadly mistaken. Its all about manipulation for the wealthy. Easy work to transfer more wealth to themselves.

    If Warren Buffet tomorrow decided to drop a billion dollars on blackberry, their stock would rise up considerably. What would have changed? Absolutely nothing from today.

    Posted via Z10
    Share prices are based on a forecast of future performance, not the general state of the company today. Bank analysts commonly develop estimates of share prices using a model known as the discounted cash flow model (DCF) which determines a value for stock dividends based on an estimate of free cash flow over a variable time horizon (1 year, 2 year, 5 years, whatever).

    Stocks can be overvalued on hype, just as the real estate market can be, but eventually they settle down. Netflix's valuation has nothing to do with Blackberry, they operate in two different industries...one in streaming video and the other in telecommunications. The markets for the two are extremely different. Blackberry faces massive competition in one, and has declining users and market share quarter after quarter, while Netflix has little competition outside of Amazon and Itunes and is growing its user base.

    Warren Buffett investing $1 billion in BB would raise their market cap by almost 20%. That alone would raise the price of shares, because shares are bought on a bid-ask system. The rise would also be sustained because it would be assumed that Buffett has spoken to top management and is confident that BB's strategy going forward is sound.
    06-30-13 12:54 PM
  15. kbz1960's Avatar
    So you feel that the stock market is fully representative and not manipulated in any way?

    If that's true how do you explain Netflix having a stock price of over $200 per share? With 36 million users, no propiotory technology, negative operating income in 2012, negative net income in 2012 and an 88% drop in profits in the third quarter of 2012. How is this company worth over $200 while blackberry (I do admit they are having issues at the moment) is worth less than $15?

    If you think the stock market is a fair game you are sadly mistaken. Its all about manipulation for the wealthy. Easy work to transfer more wealth to themselves.

    If Warren Buffet tomorrow decided to drop a billion dollars on blackberry, their stock would rise up considerably. What would have changed? Absolutely nothing from today.

    Posted via Z10
    No I don't but I do feel the news had just as much to do with it.
    06-30-13 12:57 PM
  16. ray689's Avatar
    Share prices are based on a forecast of future performance, not the general state of the company today. Bank analysts commonly develop estimates of share prices using a model known as the discounted cash flow model (DCF) which determines a value for stock dividends based on an estimate of free cash flow over a variable time horizon (1 year, 2 year, 5 years, whatever).

    Stocks can be overvalued on hype, just as the real estate market can be, but eventually they settle down. Netflix's valuation has nothing to do with Blackberry, they operate in two different industries...one in streaming video and the other in telecommunications. The markets for the two are extremely different. Blackberry faces massive competition in one, and has declining users and market share quarter after quarter, while Netflix has little competition outside of Amazon and Itunes and is growing its user base.

    Warren Buffett investing $1 billion in BB would raise their market cap by almost 20%. That alone would raise the price of shares, because shares are bought on a bid-ask system. The rise would also be sustained because it would be assumed that Buffett has spoken to top management and is confident that BB's strategy going forward is sound.
    I know the theory behind it and how it's supposed to work but to deny that the market is intentionally manipulated shows a lack of knowledge about the markets.

    First of all, Warren Buffet buying a billion dollars worth of share would not change market cap since market cap is outstanding shares multiplied by the stock price. All things being equal, him buying shares should not randomly change the stock price yet it does.

    Let's assume you are correct and market cap does go up even though the number of shares hasn't changed. Raising the market cap through a large investment in no way changes the outlook or performance of a company so the mere fact that this alone would boost share price is proof enough that the market can be easily manipulated if you have the resources to do so.


    Posted via Z10
    06-30-13 01:11 PM
  17. ray689's Avatar
    No I don't but I do feel the news had just as much to do with it.
    I agree with you the news should be the only thing driving the stock price but sadly it's not. The shorts do have a lot to do with it. That's all I was trying to get at.

    Posted via Z10
    06-30-13 01:13 PM
  18. m1a1mg's Avatar
    Amazon was an under performer for a long time. People bet based on potential, not necessarily past performance.

    IMHO, the thing that hurt BBRY the most was lack of BB10 sales/ship.
    06-30-13 01:39 PM
  19. Wiki Cydia's Avatar
    If that's true how do you explain Netflix having a stock price of over $200 per share? With 36 million users, no propiotory technology, negative operating income in 2012, negative net income in 2012 and an 88% drop in profits in the third quarter of 2012. How is this company worth over $200 while blackberry (I do admit they are having issues at the moment) is worth less than $15?
    You do realize that you can't compare shares one-to-one based on price, right? I mean different companies have different numbers of shares, so even if they have approximately the same value the share prices can be different.
    dusdal likes this.
    06-30-13 11:31 PM
  20. ray689's Avatar
    You do realize that you can't compare shares one-to-one based on price, right? I mean different companies have different numbers of shares, so even if they have approximately the same value the share prices can be different.
    Yes I realize that and I wasn't comparing shares on a 1 to 1. I was merely giving an example of a company who's share price is not representative in my opinion. That makes Netflix worth almost double what blackberry is worth. Blackberry's patents alone should be worth more than Netflix as a whole in my opinion. Netflix has no technology or anything propiotory on its own. That's all I was trying to say.

    Bottom line is this...with almost 37% of blackberry's total float in shorts, you better believe there is some shady manipulation going on.

    Posted via Z10
    07-01-13 01:21 AM
  21. sexybabe88's Avatar
    it's been proven time and again - you can't go wrong shorting blackberry. next quarter will see blackberry reeling from pissing off the blackberry and playbook faithful. not to mention an explosion of devices on the 2nd hand market is the posters are to be believed.
    07-01-13 01:26 AM
  22. thejules's Avatar
    Shorts are not done yet, the stock will likely get pushed down to the single digits.
    07-01-13 08:42 AM
  23. thejules's Avatar
    Yes I realize that and I wasn't comparing shares on a 1 to 1. I was merely giving an example of a company who's share price is not representative in my opinion. That makes Netflix worth almost double what blackberry is worth. Blackberry's patents alone should be worth more than Netflix as a whole in my opinion. Netflix has no technology or anything propiotory on its own. That's all I was trying to say.

    Bottom line is this...with almost 37% of blackberry's total float in shorts, you better believe there is some shady manipulation going on.

    Posted via Z10
    that shady manipulation you speak of is coming from bb themselves by failing to get any traction for bb10, if there were anytime to "sell like hell" it was their first full quarter of bb10. That's how traders mainly shorts have made a ton of cash. Traders are not stupid, they see BB at a vulnerable position here with iOS 7 and new iPhone coming out in September the short position will likely be more of the same.
    07-01-13 09:56 AM
  24. m1a1mg's Avatar
    07-01-13 10:33 AM
  25. Lobwedgephil's Avatar
    07-01-13 11:10 AM
27 12

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