06-10-13 06:47 PM
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  1. BBNation's Avatar
    We all have been hearing about short squeeze for BBRY for months from analysts, internet, forums but no squeeze happened. Instead, the short interest is climbing week by week and at the highest level ever. It was less than 60 mil when BB10's future was dark, cash issues, bankruptcy, BB10 DOA, takeover, etc. and now the short interest is in 170s when BB10 is out, cash is good, products are coming out, etc. How do we explain it? We all heard about TSLA and NetFlix short squeeze which did occurred and sent the SP to 100% to 300% in last few months. Now looking at their short interest as below in last few months even after squeeze, SP price shooting up in last few months shorts % did not reduce in half or at the reasonable level.
    Can someone explain this ? What are we missing ? Would it be case for BB?

    TSLA:

    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    5/15/2013 23,039,956 14,757,319 1.561256
    4/30/2013 27,501,901 3,453,140 7.964317
    4/15/2013 30,695,142 4,071,915 7.538257
    3/28/2013 31,300,039 1,365,927 22.914870
    3/15/2013 32,316,654 1,626,135 19.873291
    2/28/2013 31,954,742 3,378,947 9.457012
    2/15/2013 28,694,016 1,579,986 18.160931
    1/31/2013 26,408,269 1,676,324 15.753678
    1/15/2013 26,130,251 1,002,609 26.062255
    12/31/2012 26,854,593 878,542 30.567227
    12/14/2012 29,091,311 1,296,656 22.435643
    11/30/2012 29,346,333 955,690 30.706958
    11/15/2012 29,632,402 1,170,515 25.315696
    10/31/2012 31,121,093 706,393 44.056344
    10/15/2012 30,352,848 979,275 30.995224
    9/28/2012 29,978,640 2,349,884 12.757498
    9/14/2012 30,079,911 1,120,883 26.835906
    8/31/2012 29,511,111 974,740 30.275880
    8/15/2012 29,525,876 1,189,197 24.828414
    7/31/2012 27,993,566 1,980,531 14.134374

    Read more: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com


    NetFlix

    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    5/15/2013 9,362,340 3,892,737 2.405079
    4/30/2013 10,371,036 6,011,043 1.725331
    4/15/2013 8,185,777 5,499,236 1.488530
    3/28/2013 7,492,552 3,362,345 2.228371
    3/15/2013 8,468,258 4,266,270 1.984933
    2/28/2013 8,419,640 5,305,620 1.586929
    2/15/2013 8,071,154 6,267,978 1.287681
    1/31/2013 9,715,432 9,798,653 1.000000
    1/15/2013 10,117,386 3,676,488 2.751916
    12/31/2012 13,162,486 2,829,351 4.652122
    12/14/2012 14,136,851 5,676,689 2.490334
    11/30/2012 14,502,784 2,181,284 6.648737
    11/15/2012 15,175,095 4,201,869 3.611511
    10/31/2012 17,206,784 8,069,342 2.132365
    10/15/2012 16,205,066 7,303,803 2.218716
    9/28/2012 15,567,656 4,471,664 3.481401
    9/14/2012 15,555,831 5,293,381 2.938733
    8/31/2012 15,448,766 3,224,462 4.791114
    8/15/2012 14,309,480 4,441,234 3.221960
    7/31/2012 15,425,957 6,770,710 2.278337
    7/13/2012 12,476,644 6,976,891 1.788281
    6/29/2012 12,703,035 3,060,726 4.150334
    6/15/2012 14,128,657 3,856,603 3.663498
    5/31/2012 13,246,317 4,911,367 2.697073
    5/15/2012 11,516,953 5,523,831 2.084958



    bbry
    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    5/15/2013 170,632,578 29,749,364 5.735671
    4/30/2013 164,664,363 25,624,110 6.426150
    4/15/2013 164,340,145 35,892,399 4.578689
    3/28/2013 155,699,090 67,075,106 2.321265
    3/15/2013 155,005,574 53,212,793 2.912938
    2/28/2013 147,214,984 45,208,011 3.256392
    2/15/2013 136,511,698 81,221,373 1.680736
    1/31/2013 129,491,496 96,276,614 1.344994
    1/15/2013 135,121,295 50,178,584 2.692808
    12/31/2012 137,065,866 51,326,252 2.670483
    12/14/2012 119,621,568 41,062,428 2.913164
    11/30/2012 113,693,228 57,474,757 1.978142
    11/15/2012 104,202,426 23,119,389 4.507144
    10/31/2012 95,397,618 13,252,696 7.198356
    10/15/2012 95,478,104 23,520,126 4.059421
    9/28/2012 87,545,698 44,631,517 1.961522
    9/14/2012 82,637,081 16,214,596 5.096463
    8/31/2012 87,479,971 12,013,429 7.281849
    8/15/2012 86,666,209 22,117,373 3.918468
    7/31/2012 89,556,616 16,988,533 5.271592
    7/13/2012 92,143,011 28,181,362 3.269644
    6/29/2012 85,415,857 25,280,116 3.378776
    6/15/2012 73,419,586 16,658,064 4.407450
    5/31/2012 66,789,478 16,119,081 4.143504
    5/15/2012 63,494,931 20,741,140 3.061304
    05-24-13 04:39 PM
  2. FunGuyLover's Avatar
    The shorts are doubling down. It's pure desperation.

    Yup, it's really that simple.

    When the squeeze comes, it's going to take down some big players who have been placing dumb bet after dumb bet. At this point, they can't cut and run. They're all-in. It's pathetic, and I feel a bit sorry for the clients of those hedge funds making these increasingly stupid plays.

    Posted via CB10
    fedakd, kfh227 and cjcampbell like this.
    05-24-13 06:34 PM
  3. docgasberry's Avatar
    It is a do or die attempt. A face off to see who blinks first; the shorts or the long.

    It seems that the only way the shorts are going to win would be if BBRY fails. Looking at BBRY's fundamentals, with it's return to profitability and positive cash flow with NO debts, I find this scenario extremely unlikely.

    As it is, time is on the side of the longs. Shorting incurrs interest cost. And the higher the percentage shorted, the higher the interest rate.
    05-24-13 07:05 PM
  4. ibpluto's Avatar
    BB doesn't need to fail for shorts to win, they just need to go down. Even just a couple percent wins. The same folks that short, also long on rebounds. BB is very manipulated with the day traders winning big
    Thunderbuck likes this.
    05-24-13 07:13 PM
  5. FunGuyLover's Avatar
    BB doesn't need to fail for shorts to win, they just need to go down. Even just a couple percent wins. The same folks that short, also long on rebounds. BB is very manipulated with the day traders winning big
    Some of this is probably going on, but the fact that the shorted share volume is so absurdly high indicates that somebody is in deep doo doo and digging themselves in deeper to avoid facing the music.

    Posted via CB10
    05-24-13 09:09 PM
  6. BBNation's Avatar
    Based on SP for last few months it seems like big shorts have been running the show. They sell short big as bear raid on new news or setup news and then they cover within days to cover them and that is when we see price move for no reason. It has happened many times when SP moves either way without big news. The big longs are just waiting and collecting premiums from shorts so they are not losing either, who is losing is retailers and that is why average volume dropped from 50s to now 20s.
    End of the day it's about 2-3 BILLION dollars that will be needed to cover all or half shorts based avg price of short which is $9-12. As long as long institutional stay long and one or two big boy come and buy few millions shorts will be wiped out. May be there is another agenda that we do not know..may be samsung, apple, microsoft is funding shorts so they can pay the price they want to pay for takeover or fail the company. I am surprised that no one knows the real reason for massive shorts and what do they know why they keep adding more
    Dapper37 likes this.
    05-25-13 02:20 AM
  7. z10fido's Avatar
    People dismiss the shorts as being stupid. They aren't fools. It's different when you have a bunch of amateurs but these are big investors. They might not win this one but they are playing their side with more than just a hunch.

    Posted via CB10
    m1a1mg and bekkay like this.
    05-25-13 10:00 AM
  8. Tinomane's Avatar
    People dismiss the shorts as being stupid. They aren't fools. It's different when you have a bunch of amateurs but these are big investors. They might not win this one but they are playing their side with more than just a hunch.

    Posted via CB10
    People were saying the same thing about the Netflix, First Solar, Tesla, Green Mountain etc. Just bc there is a huge short interest doesn't mean they know something longs don't. As it's been proven over and over their "research" may be completely wrong.

    I'm not saying that will def happen with BBRY, but it's possible they are completely off base about this stock too.
    05-25-13 10:43 AM
  9. docgasberry's Avatar
    The basic premise for shorting a particular counter is because it is vulnerable. Or not expected to do well.

    I don't see this in BBRY.
    05-25-13 11:54 AM
  10. Andrew4life's Avatar
    The basic premise for shorting a particular counter is because it is vulnerable. Or not expected to do well.

    I don't see this in BBRY.
    Don't kid yourself. There is definitely a possibility that BlackBerry could fail and die. Is it vulnerable? Yes, very. iOS and Android is very big and has had made big gains. Without apps on BB10, a lot of users won't switch over and without users switching over, developers are less likely to develop apps for BB10. The mobile market is getting very very crowded. It is hard to do well.

    So yes, people who are shorting have good reason to see that BBRY is vulnerable and not expected to do well.

    So why are the rest of us long on BBRY? Well, with the possibility of failure there is success. And I'm not going to reiterate all the possible success points of BBRY, but at the end of the day, we can see loss of $15, or we can see unlimited gains. The upside far outweighs the downside.

    Most of us are betting on a come back. And if we are right, we will be rewarded a lot more than the reward that the shorts could ever possibly get.
    Acumenight and Shanerredflag like this.
    05-25-13 09:01 PM
  11. z10fido's Avatar
    Exactly. If bbry wasn't a long shot it wouldn't be at 14/15 bucks.

    Posted via CB10
    05-26-13 01:42 AM
  12. Dapper37's Avatar
    BBNation;
    May be there is another agenda that we do not know..may be samsung, apple, microsoft is funding shorts so they can pay the price they want to pay for takeover or fail the company. I am surprised that no one knows the real reason for massive shorts and what do they know why they keep adding more

    This exact thing has crossed my mind recently. I really wonder if there could be something to it.


    Posted via CB10
    05-26-13 05:51 AM
  13. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    BBNation;
    May be there is another agenda that we do not know..may be samsung, apple, microsoft is funding shorts so they can pay the price they want to pay for takeover or fail the company. I am surprised that no one knows the real reason for massive shorts and what do they know why they keep adding more

    This exact thing has crossed my mind recently. I really wonder if there could be something to it.


    Posted via CB10
    I don't buy that. The stock has more than doubled in price since last fall. If the big guys wanted to "takeover or fail the company" they had ample opportunity to do it for pretty much all of 2012. Why wouldn't they have just finished BB off then?
    m1a1mg likes this.
    05-26-13 05:59 AM
  14. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Exactly. If bbry wasn't a long shot it wouldn't be at 14/15 bucks.

    Posted via CB10
    Then what was it last fall when it was trading at not much more than $6?
    Charles Martin1 likes this.
    05-26-13 06:00 AM
  15. BBNation's Avatar
    No one purchased it 2012 may be because - they thought it would declare bankruptcy
    - b10 would never come out
    - see how bb01 does and buy good business


    Now that all assumptions went wrong let's try to kill it this way. Few billion dollars for Apple, Sammy, Google and Microsoft is not much.




    Posted via CB10
    05-26-13 12:17 PM
  16. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Can someone explain this ? What are we missing ? Would it be case for BB?
    You need great earnings releases and increased expectation for growing those earnings going forward. That is it. The rest follows as the price, and price targets go up and shorts are forced to cover as the likelihood gets smaller of the SP falling to where they want it to be.

    As panic sets in among the shorts, they all run for the door and the cost of exiting (i.e. the SP) skyrockets.
    05-26-13 01:16 PM
  17. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    BBNation;
    May be there is another agenda that we do not know..may be samsung, apple, microsoft is funding shorts so they can pay the price they want to pay for takeover or fail the company. I am surprised that no one knows the real reason for massive shorts and what do they know why they keep adding more

    This exact thing has crossed my mind recently. I really wonder if there could be something to it.


    Posted via CB10

    Businesses are busy taking care of their own business. they may get aggressive once in a while and take advantage of their large market share and force some influence among carriers, etc. but they're not going to go hiding in the shadows wasting time and money to try and kill a company that has less than 5% market share.
    Acumenight and m1a1mg like this.
    05-26-13 01:22 PM
  18. docgasberry's Avatar
    Don't kid yourself. There is definitely a possibility that BlackBerry could fail and die. Is it vulnerable? Yes, very. iOS and Android is very big and has had made big gains. Without apps on BB10, a lot of users won't switch over and without users switching over, developers are less likely to develop apps for BB10. The mobile market is getting very very crowded. It is hard to do well.

    So yes, people who are shorting have good reason to see that BBRY is vulnerable and not expected to do well.
    ........
    Not kidding myself.

    I don't see BBRY as vulnerable.

    I see BBRY viable as a business.

    I expect BBRY's prospect to improve in near and medium term.

    I see BBRY as under valued.

    ..... btw I don't consider 120,000 apps as "without" apps.
    05-26-13 01:25 PM
  19. luizimonti's Avatar
    This guy "AC Investor Blog" continues telling to its followers on twitter to buy Blackberry shares. " From a technical standpoint, the medium-term daily chart remains bullish, the stock is trading below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs but well above its rising 200-day EMA. The medium-term bull market is intact, despite being in a bear market in the short-term. Like I've said any major positive news could lead to a major short squeeze."
    05-27-13 02:06 PM
  20. FunGuyLover's Avatar
    People dismiss the shorts as being stupid. They aren't fools. It's different when you have a bunch of amateurs but these are big investors. They might not win this one but they are playing their side with more than just a hunch.

    Posted via CB10
    Put it this way : the same bad judgment that nearly tanked the global financial system in 2008 lives on.



    Posted via CB10
    Eldon Wilk likes this.
    05-27-13 09:46 PM
  21. Dapper37's Avatar
    I don't buy that. The stock has more than doubled in price since last fall. If the big guys wanted to "takeover or fail the company" they had ample opportunity to do it for pretty much all of 2012. Why wouldn't they have just finished BB off then?
    My OP was just a thought, not an overwhelming belief, but having said that to answer your question.
    It's clear to me that certain entities tried hard to fail the company but couldn't. Let's not give them to much credit. Trying is one thing and accomplishing is another. There is legality that has to be observed if not followed.
    There is limitations to winning and losing, whether by a companies own attributes or some other nefarious means.

    Posted via CB10
    05-27-13 09:59 PM
  22. Dapper37's Avatar
    Businesses are busy taking care of their own business. they may get aggressive once in a while and take advantage of their large market share and force some influence among carriers, etc. but they're not going to go hiding in the shadows wasting time and money to try and kill a company that has less than 5% market share.
    Please, let's not over due it with what you think I said. Companies get caught playing dirty tricks on their competitors all the time. It's the consumer that has the short memories.
    If Obama is willing to sick the IRS on his political rivals. Dirty pool between companies is not far fetched.
    Let me say one thing on top of that, it's only the short interests that focus on the less then 5% market share number. Everyone else is focused on future potential.

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by Dapper37; 05-27-13 at 10:17 PM.
    05-27-13 10:04 PM
  23. docgasberry's Avatar
    One of the best chart I have seen in a long while ...... you may argue with the numbers chosen for field ......but ....it sure looks GOOD !



    http://charts.stocktwits.net/product...png?1369792226
    05-29-13 08:27 AM
  24. gordo51's Avatar
    I can' see BlackBerry going out of business as they have a strong financial position and solid products. They will always be around as number 3 or 4 in the cell phone business. I could even see them overtaking Apple a few years down the road, at least in smartphones.

    Posted via CB10
    kfh227 likes this.
    05-29-13 10:17 PM
  25. z10fido's Avatar
    And the same bad judgement which has made bbry into a what it is today from what it used to be

    Posted via CB10
    06-01-13 12:23 AM
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