1. EvanRitch's Avatar
    #1 If a short squeeze happens will Blackberry on the TSX go up about the same? Or is there a possibility that just the US stock goes up huge, since the big short numbers are on BBRY.

    #2 If a short squeeze happens do you have any number number that you will sell on?

    #3 If a short squeeze happens how many days of gains do you think we get before the stock will drop?

    Of corse we never know the exact answer but I feel like I should prepare more just incase.

    Its like buying a house with a storm cellar and you stock and prepare the cellar on a nice day.
    06-13-13 08:40 AM
  2. dusdal's Avatar
    #1. Because savvy folks will try to make money on arbitrage between the two markets, the TSX will also move with the NASDAQ while allowing for difference in currency values.

    #2. N/a

    #3. Don't know.

    Posted via CB10
    peter9477 likes this.
    06-13-13 08:45 AM
  3. peter9477's Avatar
    As dusdal said for #1. Google arbitrage and you can learn more.

    For #2, I'd probably have a chunk sold at twice the current price, because I try to keep a 30-day expiry order set there. My brokerage won't let me put in an order like that for higher than 100% of the current price, at least not online (apparently).

    #3 I think depends *entirely* on the situation at the time, and can't possibly be predicted. If the news that triggers it is a shocker, it could shoot up and drop again within a couple of days... look at how things went with Volkswagen. It could also just be a long slow climb as the shorts' collective foot is removed from the neck of $BBRY and this "artificial" price suppression is gradually relieved. It's not like all the shorts will have to cover at the same price, and some would simply increase their margin and try to ride it out.
    dusdal likes this.
    06-13-13 08:53 AM
  4. bpmg4u's Avatar
    Most short squeezes are short-time, violent reactions to a sharp upward move in the share price. That means the upward price move is accelerated and exaggerated because the demand to BUY the shares demands that the short-holders buy at "any" price to cover their positions at the earliest possible moment in order to limit their losses.

    The short-squeeze's duration and volatility (price movement) are DIRECTLY related to the:
    1) change in sentiment (surprising results) based on the report of its immedately-past performance as well
    as for the company's future outlook,
    2) upward price-movement based on point #1 above that actually triggers the short-squeeze,
    3) number % of shares that's held short.

    One would expect - just for argument's sake - that, "on very good news and outlook" by company X, the regular price action "could" be from $14 to $15.25, so about 8-9%. Normally, just expected good news is good for about a 3-6% rise in the share price.

    In a 'normal' short-covering scenario, the price could go from $14 to $17.00 (+20%) for a few hours before the price settles in the next day around $15.50-16.00. Remember, the short postions artificially depress the price below its real 'market value' so that $14 might normally be $14.50-15.00.

    BUT, when 40% of the floating shares are held short - as is the case with BBRY (and BB on Toronto) - and let's suppose BBRY reports a "quite good beat" on Z10 & Q10 sales (esp. if they announce another BIG order) and profit margins, THEN we could see this $14 stock shoot up to $20 (possibly with temporary single-trade spikes up as high as $21-23) as the holders of the 170 million-or-so SHORT shares DESPERATELY try to buy, buy, buy as much & fast as possible to limit their losses.

    Making it even "more" fun, if ALL the long-holders refuse to sell at lower prices, then bids MUST go up (and quickly), making the shorts' desperation even more pressing, thereby driving the price even higher, faster. If THAT happens, the price might go into the high $20s for a short few minutes or single trades.
    I'm all in favour of THAT because it would take many of these axholes out of the picture for quite a while, some even "for good."

    ALL of this could play out in as little as just a hour (automated trading) and as long as a day. Then the price would gradually recede to a more reasonable level ($17-19??) based on the revised sentiment and outlook.

    Of course, "all" of this is purely speculative, and there's no way to predict or know IF or "how" this would ever happen ... but it's fun to try.
    Either way, DO NOT trade based on "my" numbers OR this scenario: ALL of this and the share price is based on "what the market expects" (based on analyst analysis & commentary), and most of us have no idea where the precise consensus is and how it will be evaluated by the maket, so IF RIM/BBRY disappoint in ANY way (i.e. if margins shrank by 2% or more, if subscribers didn't grow as much as whisper #s expected, if they missed the most positive sales # expected <5 million Z10s> by even 100,000, or if the next quarter's & full year guidance seem "weak")!!! - in results OR future guidance - the stock WILL go to $8 - within minutes of the next day's opening!

    Proceed at your own peril.
    06-13-13 10:18 AM
  5. kfh227's Avatar
    I already have limit orders in to sell in ladder format.

    Posted via CB10
    06-13-13 04:21 PM

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