Sell through ... please peer review
UPDATE:
I messed up the wording. The intent was to ask how many phones would BBRY report as sell through when asked at the conference call on March 28th. Which means fiscal Q4.
ORIG:
This is a very rough guess on current Z10 sales. This is my guess.
Please provide your thoughts. Crackberry Kevin, care to chime in ;)
Regarding UK:
One anecdote is that UK carriers seem to be saying that 5 Z10 sales a day is typical. If that is also true for Canada, that means the 5000 or so outlets in the UK and Canada have sold 5 phones a day since release (along with an initial spike). So if you assume 5 sales a day at 5000 outlets over 30 days (25 in reality but this covers initial spike), that's 750K Z10s. A recent article alluded to the fact that an additional 200K Z10s have sold through business sales channels. So, there are probably over 1 million sold in the UK and Canada combined at this point. With 45 million smartphone customers in those two countries, that is already 2.2% market penetration. Not bad for 30 days.
FWIW: Estimates of production are:
Dec: 500L
Jan: 1-2 million (1.5 mil for arguments sake)
Feb: 2 million (we know that production has increased straight out of Thorsten Heins mouth)
So, they manufactured 4 million Z10s so far as an estimate. The unknown is that no one knows how many are sitting in warehouses in the USA. Say 1 million are. That means 3 million have already gone to carriers who can barely keep them on shelves. If 90% of those have sold, that's 2.7 million of sell through at the end of the fiscal quarter.
So, maybe 2.3 to 3.3 million of sell through?
Does this make sense?
Re: Sell through ... please peer review
A million is really not overly optimistic. Consider playbook sales in its first quarter. And there were no previous blackberry tablet loyalists to drive sales faster. My 2c
Re: Sell through ... please peer review
I still have a hard time believing that sell through is under 1 million. David made a good rational argument though.
I guess I don't see how with such great demand, why z10s would be sitting in the warehouses of places like rogers.
If BBRY actually manufactured 3 million so far, where are they all?