1. a1s2d3f4g5's Avatar
    After reading the press release and listening to Conf Call, here are some quick thoughts:

    Definitely disappointing that there was a loss.
    Loss was mostly because shipments of BB10 were down, and because COGS went up (amortization?).
    BB7 posted another strong quarter - seems sell-through was about 4.5 million BB7
    Good news they are making another BB7 device.
    My rough estimates for shipments and sales: 2.7 m BB10 shipped, sold 2.2m BB10 sold; 4.1 m BB7 shipped, 4.6 m BB7 sold
    Service revenues to continue to decline - down to approximately 800 million per year
    Cash up - I'm not sure that matters so much at this point. One analyst said the majority of cash increase was because of an income tax issue. Earnings are more important now. Probably will lose some cash moving forward.

    Quarter was certainly below expectations but NOT as bad as Wall Street is making it to be. Shipments equaled sales, and the real disappointment came from 1) decline in BB10 ASP; 2) increase in amortization COGS; 3) Fewer BB10 shipped than expected.

    To me the sales number is more important that the shipped number.
    The key will be getting BB10 sell-through higher.
    A little disappointing that the company spent so much more on marketing and we did not see too many direct-to-consumer ads here in North America.
    They have to get more of an ad presence but also can't spend too much more. Tough dilemma. May need to shift ad dollars from carriers to consumers.

    Thorsten was asked whether they will stop making devices. He was vague. But said that he doesn't think it will happen short-term because businesses like the devices.
    Disappointing no BB10 for Playbook.

    Overall I think the market is overreacting a little this morning.
    06-28-13 07:51 AM
  2. Mister Sir's Avatar
    After reading the press release and listening to Conf Call, here are some quick thoughts:

    Definitely disappointing that there was a loss.
    Loss was mostly because shipments of BB10 were down, and because COGS went up (amortization?).
    BB7 posted another strong quarter - seems sell-through was about 4.5 million BB7
    Good news they are making another BB7 device.
    My rough estimates for shipments and sales: 2.7 m BB10 shipped, sold 2.2m BB10 sold; 4.1 m BB7 shipped, 4.6 m BB7 sold
    Service revenues to continue to decline - down to approximately 800 million per year
    Cash up - I'm not sure that matters so much at this point. One analyst said the majority of cash increase was because of an income tax issue. Earnings are more important now. Probably will lose some cash moving forward.

    Quarter was certainly below expectations but NOT as bad as Wall Street is making it to be. Shipments equaled sales, and the real disappointment came from 1) decline in BB10 ASP; 2) increase in amortization COGS; 3) Fewer BB10 shipped than expected.

    To me the sales number is more important that the shipped number.
    The key will be getting BB10 sell-through higher.
    A little disappointing that the company spent so much more on marketing and we did not see too many direct-to-consumer ads here in North America.
    They have to get more of an ad presence but also can't spend too much more. Tough dilemma. May need to shift ad dollars from carriers to consumers.

    Thorsten was asked whether they will stop making devices. He was vague. But said that he doesn't think it will happen short-term because businesses like the devices.
    Disappointing no BB10 for Playbook.

    Overall I think the market is overreacting a little this morning.
    All of this doesn't matter when the short interest of the stock is at 33% market value. These days in the markets, it's not about fundamentals as much as it's about momentum. Thorsten needs to pull a magic trick out of his hat to salvage the year.
    06-28-13 08:05 AM
  3. richardat's Avatar
    After reading the press release and listening to Conf Call, here are some quick thoughts:

    Definitely disappointing that there was a loss.
    Loss was mostly because shipments of BB10 were down, and because COGS went up (amortization?).
    BB7 posted another strong quarter - seems sell-through was about 4.5 million BB7
    Good news they are making another BB7 device.
    My rough estimates for shipments and sales: 2.7 m BB10 shipped, sold 2.2m BB10 sold; 4.1 m BB7 shipped, 4.6 m BB7 sold
    Service revenues to continue to decline - down to approximately 800 million per year
    Cash up - I'm not sure that matters so much at this point. One analyst said the majority of cash increase was because of an income tax issue. Earnings are more important now. Probably will lose some cash moving forward.

    Quarter was certainly below expectations but NOT as bad as Wall Street is making it to be. Shipments equaled sales, and the real disappointment came from 1) decline in BB10 ASP; 2) increase in amortization COGS; 3) Fewer BB10 shipped than expected.

    To me the sales number is more important that the shipped number.
    The key will be getting BB10 sell-through higher.
    A little disappointing that the company spent so much more on marketing and we did not see too many direct-to-consumer ads here in North America.
    They have to get more of an ad presence but also can't spend too much more. Tough dilemma. May need to shift ad dollars from carriers to consumers.

    Thorsten was asked whether they will stop making devices. He was vague. But said that he doesn't think it will happen short-term because businesses like the devices.
    Disappointing no BB10 for Playbook.

    Overall I think the market is overreacting a little this morning.
    I said a while back that I think they are likely planning to get out of phones - but that of course there's no way they can do that considering....well that's the company at this point. I am sure Heins is hoping to do this as well, but I don't think they have any clear plan to do it - they are just hoping to develop something. I suspect things are worse than I thought, and I did not expect to get such a look into the darkness. I'm taken aback, and of course, regulars can tell you, if things are worse than I thought then....

    As to the market reaction....well....it is what it is. It is exactly what it should be. The magnitude of market reaction is not expected to be in proportion to the negative (or positive) magnitude of the news anyways.....
    06-28-13 08:07 AM
  4. SlcCorrado's Avatar
    I don't know about overreacting... The numbers aren't good. Sad to say. They're such great devices. Let's hope people start to realize that
    06-28-13 08:07 AM
  5. Mister Sir's Avatar
    I don't know about overreacting... The numbers aren't good. Sad to say. They're such great devices. Let's hope people start to realize that
    It's one thing for the average consumer to like the device, but that has nothing to do with big institutional money moving in and out of the stock.
    06-28-13 08:12 AM
  6. SlcCorrado's Avatar
    It's one thing for the average consumer to like the device, but that has nothing to do with big institutional money moving in and out of the stock.
    They sell consumer devices. If there's no consumers, there's no money
    06-28-13 08:21 AM

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