1. sonbuster's Avatar
    another positive article from Forbes

    Nearly Half Of BlackBerry Z10 Buyers Switching From iPhone And Android - Forbes

    BlackBerrys new smartphone is stealing iPhone and Android users, according to a recent note by RBC Capital markets, which shows 45% of those buying Z10s converted from the two leading operating systems. Recent data points suggest BlackBerrys fourth quarter sell-through rate will come in substantially stronger than initially expected. While projections were low to start with, both consumer and enterprise demand look encouraging. BlackBerry 10s success or failure will ultimately depend on U.S. demand, though, which makes up approximately 20% of the companys subscriber base, according to RBC Capital Markets.

    Putting all its chips on its new operating system, BlackBerry has had to fight an uphill battle to get investors to back them. And, despite pretty good ratings by consumers and industry experts from the start, skepticism loomed large (I personally wasnt convinced from a market perspective, as I explained here). Yet, the stock has mounted an impressive rally, with BlackBerry rallying nearly 34% in 2013.


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    RBCs research team estimates BlackBerry will deliver 500,000 units in the February quarter, up from their previous estimate of 350,000; for the May quarter, theyve maintained their 2 million-unit estimate. BlackBerry indicated sell-through is 40% above its (low) projections, the analysts explained,

    While there was talk of supply chain constraints, BlackBerry has managed a substantially wider breadth of launch than Wall Street had expected, covering approximately 35% of its subscriber base. In India, the new Z10s sold out in two days, while in the U.K., it ranks number 5 on large European retailer Carphone Warehouses top 10 monthly phones, RBCs analysts explained.

    Solid enterprise demand is another plus for BlackBerry, with employee upgrades and IT departments bringing in requests, RBC said. On Wednesday, the company announced it had receive its largest ever single purchase order BlackBerrys history, boasting a partner had ordered one million devices and calling it a tremendous vote of confidence in BlackBerry 10.

    Another interesting factor RBC points at is BlackBerrys reach beyond loyalists, with 45% of Z10 users coming from iPhone or Android. Yet BlackBerry is still playing catch up in terms of its app store and ecosystem. The large number of coming soon apps (30% of top 10 free/paid iPhone apps) such as Skype is a lingering annoyance for users but hopefully will be short-lived and resolved before full availability in the U.S. Netflix does not have plans to develop an app for BlackBerry 10 and other developers seem too busy with Android and Apple, they explained.

    Also positive for the company is that demand for its legacy devices hasnt eroded dramatically. RBC expects the comapny to ship 6.3 million legacy units in the February quarter.

    Blackberrys major challenge will be breaking into the U.S. market once again, where approximately 20% of its user base is and where theyve lost the important market share. The latest data from comScore reveals BlackBerry doesnt even show up among the top five manufacturers (Apple, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, And LG), and comes in at a very distant third in terms of operating system share (with 5.9% of the market, compared to 37.8% for iOS and 52.3% for Android).

    While RBC says its still too early to gauge U.S. demand for BlackBerrys new products, initial checks at AT&T suggest a slower pick up than in Canada and the U.K. Carrier support may be weaker as well, with Sprint deciding to skip the touch screen-only version and focus on the Q10 (which features a QWERTY keyboard) and T-Mobile going for the Z10; AT&T and Verizon, the two heavyweights, will commercialize both models.

    The launch of Samsungs new Galaxy S4 will be problematic for BlackBerry as well, pushing down the value of the Galaxy S3, adding one more cheap device to compete with. Yet BlackBerry appears to be on the right track, defying my previous skepticism. According to RBC, the launch of the Q10 in April could boost sales, but the company still needs to look at lower pricing points and new iterations of its current models to keep growing. BlackBerry is an $18 stock for the analysts, who believe under perfect conditions it could jump to $24.
    03-14-13 09:11 PM
  2. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    The high percentage of non blackberry consumers switching to the Blackberry Z10 is very impressive indeed!!
    sonbuster likes this.
    03-14-13 09:45 PM
  3. grover5's Avatar
    Thanks for the post OP.
    sonbuster likes this.
    03-14-13 09:51 PM
  4. Bbnivende's Avatar
    You can't judge by early adopters. It will be very diificult to overcome the familarity factor offered by Apple and samsung.

    BB has to market to users who want the best 0S available. My sense is that BB made a mistake in not having a start up page as warm and inviting as the Apple.
    03-14-13 10:03 PM
  5. EvanRitch's Avatar
    I don't doubt it. It's not like they really could be coming from anywhere else. Sure people still own Blackberries but not many.
    03-15-13 06:54 AM
  6. BBhombre's Avatar
    They are making assumptions that people are leaving iOS and Android for Z10. The reality is that Blackberry is reporting varying percentages are simply new to the platform. Namely that they weren't using blackberry before. Blackberry has no idea where they came from.

    I suspect Apple, Samsung and other smartphone makers see many new buyers from feature phones. Could a lot of these new users be from feature phones too? Feature phones still far outsell smartphones in 2012.
    03-15-13 07:38 AM
  7. melb_me's Avatar
    They are making assumptions that people are leaving iOS and Android for Z10. The reality is that Blackberry is reporting varying percentages are simply new to the platform. Namely that they weren't using blackberry before. Blackberry has no idea where they came from.

    I suspect Apple, Samsung and other smartphone makers see many new buyers from feature phones. Could a lot of these new users be from feature phones too? Feature phones still far outsell smartphones in 2012.
    The way they track everything you do these days I would be sure Blackberry knows exactly where the new converts are coming from right down to make and model of phone they switched from. It would all be available from the carriers for a small fee of course. Unless you were new to the carrier...but I think the majority of people stick with the same carrier.
    03-15-13 08:01 AM
  8. gregorylkelly's Avatar
    They are making assumptions that people are leaving iOS and Android for Z10. The reality is that Blackberry is reporting varying percentages are simply new to the platform. Namely that they weren't using blackberry before. Blackberry has no idea where they came from.

    I suspect Apple, Samsung and other smartphone makers see many new buyers from feature phones. Could a lot of these new users be from feature phones too? Feature phones still far outsell smartphones in 2012.
    Most people going from feature phones to their first smartphone aren't early adopters. I suspect most Z10 sales are to previous smartphone owners.
    03-15-13 11:05 AM
  9. Bbnivende's Avatar
    Most people going from feature phones to their first smartphone aren't early adopters. I suspect most Z10 sales are to previous smartphone owners.
    Many will be former BB owners who have lapsed. Just spent 10 days in southern California and saw one BB9000 in all that time. Just one BB of any vintage.
    Last edited by Bbnivende; 03-15-13 at 08:58 PM.
    03-15-13 07:27 PM

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