1. mikeycollins13's Avatar
    Looks like BB10 is winding down....barely any sold this Q, the platform is an epic fail.

    That being said, stock reaction, given the 4.4B writedown, is very muted -7% as i type, which is the new floor.

    I expect Chen will lead a positive call and the $5.80 is NOT the collapse shorts wanted. As there is no collapse here, shorts have to begin the reverse.

    The cash position is very strong, $3.2B, and shorts will now be Forced to cover.

    Do this at your own risk and try not to bet (not invest) any sums you cannot afford to lose.
    Last edited by mikeycollins13; 12-20-13 at 08:29 AM.
    s7khan likes this.
    12-20-13 07:48 AM
  2. just_luc's Avatar
    Looks like BB10 is winding down....
    Did you miss the part where they just signed a device manufacturing agreement for the next 5 years?
    thatplaybookguy likes this.
    12-20-13 08:02 AM
  3. TheFrozenCommunist's Avatar
    Did you miss the part where they just signed a device manufacturing agreement for the next 5 years?
    So what? It will be to produce low margin phones in emerging markets. They will make cents on the dollar with this deal.
    12-20-13 08:12 AM
  4. SirJes's Avatar
    So what? It will be to produce low margin phones in emerging markets. They will make cents on the dollar with this deal.
    INITIALLY, people seem to read what they want.

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-13 08:15 AM
  5. just_luc's Avatar
    So what? It will be to produce low margin phones in emerging markets. They will make cents on the dollar with this deal.
    The first product will be low cost for Indonesia.. and it's a BB10 product at that. Going forward there's plenty more BB10 devices in the pipeline.
    12-20-13 08:16 AM
  6. MiSsY_'s Avatar
    INITIALLY, people seem to read what they want.

    Posted via CB10
    I don't think the intended device for Indonesia will be the only one or the only location where such a device is launched

    Posted via CB10 from my Z30
    12-20-13 08:18 AM
  7. mikeycollins13's Avatar
    Did you miss the part where they just signed a device manufacturing agreement for the next 5 years?
    Yeah, looks like for Emerging markets focus, BB7. We'll know more in the call. I anticipate he will unload HW.

    A stock that does not tank on news like this has reached a bottom. I think its a buy right here. Chen is credible.

    its at $6.40. I posted it was at $5.80
    12-20-13 08:20 AM
  8. kbz1960's Avatar
    Did you miss the part where they just signed a device manufacturing agreement for the next 5 years?
    BBOS phones or BB10 phones?
    12-20-13 08:28 AM
  9. just_luc's Avatar
    BBOS phones or BB10 phones?
    BB10 phones. Even the low cost device for Indonesia is BB10 as far as I can tell.
    kbz1960 likes this.
    12-20-13 08:30 AM
  10. mikeycollins13's Avatar
    He's gonna stick to both BB10 and BB7. He just said it.
    12-20-13 08:43 AM
  11. just_luc's Avatar
    He's gonna stick to both BB10 and BB7. He just said it.
    I'm not saying you're wrong.. but I didn't hear that.

    He did say he already has the first device Foxconn will be releasing in his hands, and it's running BB10.
    12-20-13 09:11 AM
  12. zee3p0's Avatar
    Good call on the short squeeze.

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-13 10:38 AM
  13. TheFrozenCommunist's Avatar
    In the call, Chen had mentioned that they want to put less focus on hardware devices. This leads me to believe the focus will be on software and any hardware that is released will probably be a mass produced low end device that won't require much from an R&D and engineering budget.

    Remember that BB7 devices continue to outsell BB10 devices. The market seems to be more interested in the low end BB devices.
    12-20-13 10:55 AM
  14. Tariq Nasir's Avatar
    BlackBerry up 16 percent

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-13 10:57 AM
  15. mikeycollins13's Avatar
    $7+

    Whooopie. Shorts are dead
    Last edited by mikeycollins13; 12-20-13 at 01:47 PM.
    12-20-13 10:59 AM
  16. s7khan's Avatar
    Okay, I'm a bit confused, so could someone who has a better understanding explain it to me. There was a 4.4 billion loss including write outs, etc. Handset sales are not good. I don't know if I reasonably expected the stock to crash, or just slip a bit, but can someone explain the 15% rally (as I type this)?

    What is the market liking from today's call?

    Edit: Holy crap, it went from 15% to 17% in a matter of a minute as I typed this

    And OP, if you have any future predictions, feel free to share
    Last edited by s7khan; 12-20-13 at 11:18 AM.
    mikeycollins13 likes this.
    12-20-13 11:02 AM
  17. epark88's Avatar
    Good call, OP!...

    Posted via CB10
    mikeycollins13 likes this.
    12-20-13 11:16 AM
  18. zee3p0's Avatar
    Its something like this. Large "entites" had large short position in the stock. Meaning that they were obligated to buy the shares to cover shares they had previously sold at a higher price. Pretty much everyone knew the earnings were going to suck realy bad. Perhaps the same entites or co ordinated ones sold options to the market for the option to sell the stock at a certain prices on this date. Since the majority of the shorts were already in the money, covering these positions drives the share price up, since the short float is already overbought there was less resistance to keep the stock down. At the same time the price rise puts the sold options out of the money in turn earning more money for the shorts.

    Now they resell short to "longs" at these prices and repeat the process.

    Posted via CB10
    CyberMan2013 likes this.
    12-20-13 11:16 AM
  19. TheFrozenCommunist's Avatar
    Its something like this. Large "entites" had large short position in the stock. Meaning that they were obligated to buy the shares to cover shares they had previously sold at a higher price. Pretty much everyone knew the earnings were going to suck realy bad. Perhaps the same entites or co ordinated ones sold options to the market for the option to sell the stock at a certain prices on this date. Since the majority of the shorts were already in the money, covering these positions drives the share price up, since the short float is already overbought there was less resistance to keep the stock down. At the same time the price rise puts the sold options out of the money in turn earning more money for the shorts.

    Now they resell short to "longs" at these prices and repeat the process.

    Posted via CB10
    Exactly this. Typically after earnings, BBRY tends to rally up or sell down anywhere between 10-15%. Then throughout the quarter, it trends back down in the case of a rally, or trades sideways in the case that stock got beaten. I would imagine the 15% gains today will be given back over the course of the next month.

    Bottom line is that the longer term trend is down unless someone comes in to buy the company. The only thing BB has going for them right now is BBM, their patents and cash on hand. Their phone business is going the way of Nokia.
    12-20-13 01:10 PM
  20. TheFrozenCommunist's Avatar
    INITIALLY, people seem to read what they want.

    Posted via CB10
    Foxconn will take over the design and building of the handsets. The Indonesian market will be the first. Indonesia is a third world country so they will hardly be lining up for a Z30 anytime soon.
    12-20-13 01:16 PM
  21. mikeycollins13's Avatar
    Okay, I'm a bit confused, so could someone who has a better understanding explain it to me. There was a 4.4 billion loss including write outs, etc. Handset sales are not good. I don't know if I reasonably expected the stock to crash, or just slip a bit, but can someone explain the 15% rally (as I type this)?

    What is the market liking from today's call?

    Edit: Holy crap, it went from 15% to 17% in a matter of a minute as I typed this

    And OP, if you have any future predictions, feel free to share
    This was a trade, short term, to hit Pre Market and sell during conf call.

    I was WRONG on BBRY all through July of this year, so I'm definitely no whiz. I'm bullish again now though. Shorts have to cover IMHO.
    12-20-13 01:47 PM

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