12-10-13 12:15 PM
27 12
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  1. zee3p0's Avatar
    Since there is 14 days to go to earnings release i thought it would be fun to have a guess the stock closing price on the 20th.

    Hopefully they don't pre release again and ruin the game.

    I'm Going with $5.03.

    Whoever wins gets.....well nothing

    Posted via CB10
    12-06-13 10:15 AM
  2. pkcable's Avatar
    7.51, and rising!
    12-06-13 10:27 AM
  3. anon1727506's Avatar
    $4.60

    But I'd expect it to jump back up to around $6 the following week as much of the bad news has been priced into the current value. That day will just be knee jerk to what most already expect.

    If it were me, I'd be a buyer that day.
    12-06-13 10:36 AM
  4. vrud's Avatar
    I am not sure earnings would play big role in the report. I doubt they earned anything. A bigger interest for me would be how they are doing in the service area - number of bes commercial installs, bbm active user count, channels engagement.

    Posted via CB10
    JeepBB and gg22 like this.
    12-06-13 10:47 AM
  5. SteveBB10's Avatar
    6.42 gotta be optimistic in life

    Canadian cities BBM Channel C001234A4
    12-06-13 10:56 AM
  6. thatplaybookguy's Avatar
    $11.23 is my guess.
    12-06-13 11:19 AM
  7. JeepBB's Avatar
    I guessed in another thread that BB might fall another dollar or two on ER-day because I don't believe all the fallout from the "sale that wasn't" and BB's continuing woes has yet been priced in. The last couple of days simply confirms that for me.

    So, I'll give two figures if I may: $5.40 if the ER "tis but a scratch" (you'll need to be a fan of Monty Python to get that reference) and $4.50 if it's the blood-bath I expect.
    Last edited by JeepBB; 12-06-13 at 12:19 PM.
    12-06-13 11:48 AM
  8. JeepBB's Avatar
    I am not sure earnings would play big role in the report. I doubt they earned anything. A bigger interest for me would be how they are doing in the service area - number of bes commercial installs, bbm active user count, channels engagement.
    Whilst I agree with you that all that information would be of interest, I doubt you'll get any of it from BB during the ER. Anything that BB aren't legally obliged to reveal, won't be.

    And, assuming Chen doesn't cancel the post-ER call, they'll simply repeat all the double-speak (such as always combining test and commercial BES installation numbers) to leave us none the wiser.

    I'd hope for more clarity from the "New BB" under Chen... but I'm old and cynical and, as I doubt they'll have much good news to report, BB will resort to smoke and mirrors and ambiguous statements. But, I'm ready to be pleasantly surprised by Chen's frankness and honesty.

    $5.40 or $4.50.
    12-06-13 12:26 PM
  9. Mr.mister's Avatar
    Between 3 and 20$
    But seriously I'd say 6.10ish

    Better android than android. The future is black....
    12-06-13 01:16 PM
  10. Hilman76's Avatar
    22.2% less than today (due to a double candle and an inverted unicorn) = $4.59
    12-06-13 01:47 PM
  11. m1a1mg's Avatar
    I'd hope for more clarity from the "New BB" under Chen... but I'm old and cynical and, as I doubt they'll have much good news to report, BB will resort to smoke and mirrors and ambiguous statements. But, I'm ready to be pleasantly surprised by Chen's frankness and honesty.

    $5.40 or $4.50.
    One last hope for BB. Chen puts all the cards on the table at the ER. Get the pain over with. Write down what must be written down. Provide actual numbers of subscribers. Provide number of BBM unique daily/weekly users. Total number of BES installs and CALs. Shipped/sold and split between BB10 and OS7. Be honest and upfront.

    Or just keep sending out "We're not dead yet" letters, until you actually are.

    It's time for a truly new CEO. IMHO.
    JeepBB, Troy Tiscareno and gg22 like this.
    12-06-13 01:59 PM
  12. JeepBB's Avatar
    One last hope for BB. Chen puts all the cards on the table at the ER. Get the pain over with. Write down what must be written down. Provide actual numbers of subscribers. Provide number of BBM unique daily/weekly users. Total number of BES installs and CALs. Shipped/sold and split between BB10 and OS7. Be honest and upfront.

    Or just keep sending out "We're not dead yet" letters, until you actually are.

    It's time for a truly new CEO. IMHO.
    Once again, I find myself in complete agreement with you. It must be our shared British heritage! LOL

    However, I really can't see it happening.

    IMO, the habit of issuing ambiguous and semi-true statements is too ingrained in BB corporate culture for them to admit now just how deep a hole they are in.

    Added to that is the fear that the companies in the Enterprise space that BB is pinning their hopes on will hear only the first part of a confessional: "As you can see from these figures, we are in really, really, deep, deep, do-do... .... ... but, we have a plan" - and that will sabotage any remaining chance of those Enterprises engaging with what they perceive as a "doomed" company.

    So, I agree that honesty is probably the best policy... but it won't happen.

    I'm sure the response to these posts from the faithful will be along the lines of: "BB has been written off every quarter for the last three years". That is true, but I really do think we're approaching the end-game now. I think we've already seen the end of the BB we knew with the exit of Thor, whether Chen can successfully re-spin BB as a service and enterprise company remains to be seen. And I don't believe they have more than 6-months to achieve that.
    12-06-13 02:47 PM
  13. zee3p0's Avatar
    I think we will hear something about a shift in hardware, they say they don't plan to abandon hardware but when the cost of sales exceeds the revenue on 3.5 million phones there is an issue. The operations cost cutting can turn the software and services into a profitable business as is. The question is what to do about hardware.

    Posted via CB10
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-06-13 02:55 PM
  14. JeepBB's Avatar
    Yes, I think they'll exit hardware entirely, and won't make any further devices.

    I've changed my mind on this as I was sure they wouldn't announce it this ER because of the holiday sales they might still make... but after more thought, by 20th December the Xmas retail boom will be over, and any such sales that were going to happen would already have been made.

    They'll be cleverer than to baldly state that BB won't sell phones anymore. Instead, they'll announce a withdrawal from retail routes, but make clear that anyone who still wants a BB10 phone can order one online from BB's website. Thus BB can legitimately claim that they are still selling hardware - another of those semi-truths that BB excels at.

    All the unsold handsets, of which they probably have millions!, will be given to enterprises as part of a services contract - in a "buy a BES10 installation, get 100 handsets free" kind of deal.
    12-06-13 03:11 PM
  15. chr1sny's Avatar
    I think transparency is too bitter of a pill for them to swallow. I agree it would be ultimately beneficial since it would help stabilize the expectations of services customers.

    I imagine many services customers are concerned about the company's ability to continue to do business with all of the uncertainty and negativity surrounding its hardware lines.
    12-06-13 05:08 PM
  16. Blackberry_Boss's Avatar
    I say 5-4.50$....chan might spout some good news but mmmm I doubt it. I think I'm going to need someone to break me off a piece of that kit kat bar soon in order for BlackBerry to see some $$ roll through.

    Posted via CB10
    12-09-13 12:46 PM
  17. BBNation's Avatar
    If shorts start covering now it should be more than $10. When will shorts cover? At $5, 4,3, 2 ?? I mean what are they thinking? They proved longs wrong many times even when people said too dangerous to short and yet they shorted more. Salute to their confidence or inside info. Shared by VPs.


    Posted via CB10
    12-09-13 08:46 PM
  18. zee3p0's Avatar
    Short covering is cyclical. You are referring to a short squeeze that requires a catalyst to move the stock. Don't see that coming. On the other hand a catalyst for a lower price is likely days away. Thats likely a big part of the recent drop. Maybe they will post positive earnings and you can have your squeeze, can't see that happening.

    Posted via CB10
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-09-13 09:11 PM
  19. greggebhardt's Avatar
    $3.10 is my guess.

    but it should bounce back to over $5 soon. Just another squeeze!
    12-10-13 06:15 AM
  20. JeepBB's Avatar
    $3.10 is my guess.



    but it should bounce back to over $5 soon. Just another squeeze!



    ouch!
    I'm starting to think my $5.40 is wildly optimistic, and my disaster $4.50 figure as a happy day case!

    I'm not sure where the ER upside is to cause a short squeeze bounce back... But... If that is only to 5 bucks then BB is still deep in it...





    JBB
    12-10-13 06:27 AM
  21. m1a1mg's Avatar
    It all depends on how much of the price is already based on a fairly certain Dec 20th ER. The 31st is a Tuesday this year. It gives investors a little more time to dump for tax reasons.

    Given the current price, I'd guess low 5s or high 4s.
    12-10-13 08:12 AM
  22. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    The premise of this thread presents a rather misinformed perspective of projecting future stock prices. Stock prices in the short term, especially after material events, are volatile. That would be directly after the earnings call. There isn't much use in projecting this temporary pricing unless you are a day trader.

    The share price of concern to most investors is the new equilibrium share price established some time after the news has been digested. So the question should be better poised as, "What will be the share price X weeks after the earnings report?"

    Personally, I think BBRY will be headed to ~4.50 USD/share a couple of weeks after the ER. Bear in mind that BBRY has an established history of posting results significantly worse than any analysts, posters, and even actual forum trolls think possible, though, so don't call me out if this stock does something crazy like hit 2 USD/share a couple weeks after the ER.

    My longterm perspective is that BBRY stock is on a clear trajectory to 0 USD/share unless in the likely situation it finds a buyer(s). I do not see any current catalysts nor any prospects for an unknown, future catalyst for a turnaround of BBRY as an independent company.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-10-13 08:32 AM
  23. rim4ever's Avatar
    My pick is $.01. Yes, I have the same right as the shorts to dream about the SP heading to zero. I would love to pick up a million shares for a mere 10 grands.
    12-10-13 08:42 AM
  24. zee3p0's Avatar
    The share price of concern to most investors is the new equilibrium share price established some time after the news has been digested. So the question should be better poised as, "What will be the share price X weeks after the earnings report?"

    The point of the thread was to have some fun with picking a price, there are plenty of posts about what you just posted above.
    So what s your guess?



    Posted via CB10
    12-10-13 09:09 AM
  25. JeepBB's Avatar
    Another day, another low... If it goes below my guess for ER, do I get another go?

    JBB
    12-10-13 09:58 AM
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