1. W Hoa's Avatar
    If BBRY announces last quarter sales of Z10 in excess of 500,000 units:

    Speaking of BlackBerry, Jefferies & Co.s Peter Misek this morning came on CNBC to talk with Melissa Lee. Misek, who rates BlackBerry a Buy, opined the company will talk about selling half a million Z10 units, anything more than that is a home run, and probably about the forthcoming Q10 model, with a physical keyboard. I think overall sales have been better than they expected, and better than their partners expected. I expect him to say, Look, Well make money next quarter. Only a handful of people believe that, and I think thats going to be the real needle mover. I think the Q10 is going to be a real home run for business users. If there is any blemish on cash flow or subs, look for the shorts to double down. If its a clean print, look for this to melt up.
    This Morning: Handicapping BBRYs Q, Cheers for BRCM, PANW - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
    03-27-13 11:04 AM
  2. Iamanonymous62's Avatar
    If BBRY announces last quarter sales of Z10 in excess of 500,000 units:

    So what he's saying is, if tommorrows numbers are good, the stock will go up, if the numbers are not good, the stock will go down. Gee, thanks Peter! This guy just likes to be in the news.

    This Morning: Handicapping BBRY’s Q, Cheers for BRCM, PANW - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
    03-27-13 11:22 AM
  3. howarmat's Avatar
    I think they need closer to 800k to be good. 1 million for great. 500k I don't think will be enough to impress most. Remember Canaccord cut estimates to 300k and everybody yelled at them being way to low. They then updated their numbers to 800k.

    In the end you won't please all but I think most on "the street" will want to hear a sell thru of more than 500k for last quarter.
    03-27-13 11:30 AM
  4. dbmalloy's Avatar
    BB could have the best report in its history and it simply will not matter a week from now.... It will run this way... yes it was wildly exceeded expectations and the stock will shoot up... more because of a short squeeze... settle down at a higher level than today.... after one week we will hear the drone.... well it had a soft launch in the US... Enterprise in abandoning the platform.... They are loosing service revenue.. nothing has changed... they are doomed.... oh wait! ___ is going to buy them.... not wait.... they are going to sell off the hardware division... more negative lazy stories by the media and wall street analysts......until BB can get 2 or 3 successful quarters under its belt and carve out that Niche everyone keeps talking about.... we are destined to get the same old same old for the next 6 months.... very depressing.... on the other hand the report tomorrow could show BB is in the tank with sales and revenue and there will nothing to talk about in six months... devastating....
    jackwaldon likes this.
    03-27-13 11:50 AM
  5. EchoTango's Avatar
    If this all hangs on February sales (which I agree will be an important future trending metric), then there's going be a great debate around sell-in and sell-through numbers. To review, sell-in is stocking up retailers with inventory and sell-through is actual devices sold to customers. Typically the sell-in number is a fairly acurate as the manufacturer has a good record of what shipped from their factories. Sell-through is more problemactic, as the manufacturer has to rely on the retailers to consolidate all their sales from all the different channels and then decide if it falls into this quarter of the one following. Given the complexity of the excercise, that number tends to be less acurate the sell-in, but is clearly the more important number.

    That said, all eyes will be on the sell-through number and let's just hope all the reports and reconciliations are both acurate and timely. I'm still relatively bullish and projecting 1.3-1.5 million sold-through. Let's hope I'm right !
    missing_K-W likes this.
    03-27-13 01:01 PM
  6. BBNation's Avatar
    Remember all units shipped to carriers/resellers are considered sold, thousands of units might be in circulation before Mar 2nd considered sold
    03-27-13 01:24 PM
  7. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    The analysts are saying things like this to REALLY HYPE up the ER. Then if it doesn't meet expectations, the media blitz will occur and shorts will be happy.
    03-27-13 02:12 PM
  8. OMGitworks's Avatar
    He's no better than the short side analysts who set expectations too high and set BBRY up to fail. He is behind the stock (now) so of course he is setting us up for a number he knows they can hit and overplaying it. I hope they do well, but this guy is no better than the rest, only that he supports BBRY make sit seem better to some of us.
    03-27-13 02:16 PM
  9. Soeasy's Avatar
    I think they need closer to 800k to be good. 1 million for great. 500k I don't think will be enough to impress most. Remember Canaccord cut estimates to 300k and everybody yelled at them being way to low. They then updated their numbers to 800k.

    In the end you won't please all but I think most on "the street" will want to hear a sell thru of more than 500k for last quarter.
    Y'up! But with some stores only getting 2 or 3 units and then reports of 'sold out' popping up. I wonder if their initial production run(not counting the U.S.) was more than 1mm units in total.
    03-27-13 02:18 PM
  10. tharrison4815's Avatar
    I think they need closer to 800k to be good. 1 million for great. 500k I don't think will be enough to impress most. Remember Canaccord cut estimates to 300k and everybody yelled at them being way to low. They then updated their numbers to 800k.

    In the end you won't please all but I think most on "the street" will want to hear a sell thru of more than 500k for last quarter.
    The original iPhone sold 1m in the first quarter. Do people really expect the Z10 to do as well as this? Doing half as well as the iPhone would be great IMO.
    03-27-13 05:30 PM
  11. Munchito1976's Avatar
    The original iPhone sold 1m in the first quarter. Do people really expect the Z10 to do as well as this? Doing half as well as the iPhone would be great IMO.
    didn't they just sell 1M phones in a single order?

    IMO they blow that 500k estimate out of the water tomorrow (or at least I hope )
    03-27-13 06:15 PM
  12. dusdal's Avatar
    The original iPhone sold 1m in the first quarter. Do people really expect the Z10 to do as well as this? Doing half as well as the iPhone would be great IMO.
    Yup, and we're suggesting the possibility of selling that amount (more than 1m imo) in just one month. In limited markets no less.

    Good right?
    03-27-13 06:21 PM
  13. howarmat's Avatar
    The original iPhone sold 1m in the first quarter. Do people really expect the Z10 to do as well as this? Doing half as well as the iPhone would be great IMO.
    sure 5 years ago... Nothings changed since then though right?

    didn't they just sell 1M phones in a single order?

    IMO they blow that 500k estimate out of the water tomorrow (or at least I hope )
    that 1 million doesn't matter for the earnings report.
    q649 likes this.
    03-27-13 06:41 PM
  14. Munchito1976's Avatar
    that 1 million doesn't matter for the earnings report.
    Of course it doesn't. My point was that if a single order can account for 1M devices (again, understood that was meant for the US), a month of sales in 2 of BB's strongest markets have a great chance of soundly beating consensus estimates tomorrow. I think that the market is overlooking how low the bar actually is here.
    03-27-13 07:59 PM
  15. robtanz's Avatar
    I still think that the Canaccord guy's estimate is right on target.
    03-28-13 06:48 PM
  16. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    It hit a home run but the umpire is being paid by the other team...
    03-29-13 02:32 PM
  17. Knightcrawler's Avatar
    More like the 1M sales and increased profit is offsetting the drop in subs and service revenue.

    I'd like to hear from misek again and see how hour feels towards the results.

    Posted via CB10
    howarmat likes this.
    03-29-13 02:46 PM

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