05-21-13 12:12 AM
46 12
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  1. W Hoa's Avatar
    BlackBerry can still boast of something unique: Its "network operations center"
    BLACKBERRY IS MAKING concessions to woo companies, giving away the BES software for free, while waiving the network fee for BlackBerry users who upgrade to BlackBerry 10 devices through the end of this year.

    The BES software has garnered some prominent early customers, including Skadden, Arps and 20th Century Fox, and 4,600 companies are evaluating the software.

    If even a fraction of enterprises take up BES and the NOC, bulls think it could boost the stock.

    Peter Misek, who follows BlackBerry for Jefferies & Co., and rates its shares Buy, doesn't expect BlackBerry will win the smartphone wars. But with perhaps 500 million corporate users of email on mobile devices, worldwide, Misek reasons that if just 10% of them were to take up BlackBerry's offer to use the NOC, and if each one paid $100 per year, the result would be a steady $5 billion in revenue for BlackBerry annually.

    Put a 42% operating margin on that, and you could be looking at $2.50 per share in earnings, for a stock worth $30 at a P/E multiple of 12. With a steady $5 billion in security revenue, BlackBerry could be attractive to an acquirer, he thinks. For example, Misek speculates that Microsoft might want to boost its standing in mobile by buying the company.

    We may know more soon about what a mobile device management stock is worth. The Wall Street Journal reported in March that Good has met with bankers to discuss a public offering that could value the company at $1 billion.

    For the moment, BlackBerry shares will trade based on the market's perception of how the Z10 and Q10, and forthcoming models, sell. But the embedded value of the network is worth keeping an eye on.

    In an increasingly complex mobile world, that network is an asset that will likely continue to represent real value.


    BlackBerry's Plan B: The Network - Barrons.com
    s0be, jay_men, snejpa and 9 others like this.
    05-11-13 09:47 AM
  2. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    Only problem is the 100$ is a one time fee per device, not a yearly fee.
    GTiLeo likes this.
    05-11-13 09:56 AM
  3. W Hoa's Avatar
    Only problem is the 100$ is a one time fee per device, not a yearly fee.
    "if each one paid $100 per year, the result would be a steady $5 billion in revenue for BlackBerry annually. "
    matthewriedle likes this.
    05-11-13 10:38 AM
  4. theRock1975's Avatar
    Most analysts have completely written off the NOC. A private and secure network connecting 650 carriers, the only one of its kind! The perfect resource for M2M, Smart monitors communicating with municipalities, smart appliances, portable medical devices, defence equipment communicating in remote areas..

    I think Misek is the only one that sees the synergies of QNX + NOC. Why would RIM want to split this up? They go hand in hand.
    05-11-13 10:45 AM
  5. SuperionMaximus's Avatar
    If Good Technologies is only worth $1 Billion, BlackBerry should be the ones looking to acquire them. Good is the number two player in MDM behind BlackBerry and if BlackBerry were to consolidate and cement their leadership in that space, this could also generate long term value for the company.
    fedakd likes this.
    05-11-13 11:05 AM
  6. tedcranmore's Avatar
    I'd say $25-$40 is much more realistically valuing what the market will pay.
    05-11-13 11:53 AM
  7. fedakd's Avatar
    Prem has stated he believes it's worth $40+ a share. If you don't get Prem's shares, you don't get the company, simple as that. BlackBerry also has a shareholder rights plan which will make sure no lowball bids end up working.
    Rooster99 and matthewriedle like this.
    05-11-13 11:56 AM
  8. W Hoa's Avatar
    Prem has stated he believes it's worth $40+ a share. If you don't get Prem's shares, you don't get the company, simple as that. BlackBerry also has a shareholder rights plan which will make sure no lowball bids end up working.
    First it gets to $30 and THEN it gets taken out with a nice premium. Pesonally I hope BBRY isn't taken out. I should also add that Misek is saying $30 a share exclusive of revenue from device sales. He is basing it purely on service revenue.

    Put a 42% operating margin on that, and you could be looking at $2.50 per share in earnings, for a stock worth $30 at a P/E multiple of 12. With a steady $5 billion in security revenue, BlackBerry could be attractive to an acquirer, he thinks.
    05-11-13 12:05 PM
  9. Chicago777Guy's Avatar
    I think it's worth lot lot more...none wants to call the insane shots but reality is bit is worth insanely more...matter of time

    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 01:41 PM
  10. GTiLeo's Avatar
    Only problem is the 100$ is a one time fee per device, not a yearly fee.
    Not true even in the slightest. Each device on the MDM pay a monthly fee. I think the statement of $100 a year is an under assumption as the current BES is over somewhere around the $10 mark. Which would make it $120 per year. But I I am not 100% sure on the fee just going by memory

    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 02:08 PM
  11. fedakd's Avatar
    Also worth adding is his operating margin of 42% on BES seems extremely low. The Z10/Q10 have margins that high, software & services would be in a whole different ball game. Upwards of 75% based on analyst reports I've read. You're right though, it would definitely require a significant premium!

    Also in terms of the recurring fees, these are the monthly service fees Misek is getting at here, not the individual CAL licenses. Monthly service fees would likely range ~8$/month or ~$100/year.

    First it gets to $30 and THEN it gets taken out with a nice premium. Pesonally I hope BBRY isn't taken out. I should also add that Misek is saying $30 a share exclusive of revenue from device sales. He is basing it purely on service revenue.
    W Hoa likes this.
    05-11-13 03:16 PM
  12. jsmall999's Avatar
    The base rate for each CAL is 100, it's normally discounted based on volume

    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 03:19 PM
  13. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    "if each one paid $100 per year, the result would be a steady $5 billion in revenue for BlackBerry annually. "
    Only problem is that currently is it a one time $100 per device fee. So revenue is $100 times the number of licenses. Lots of what ifs that are not valid.
    05-11-13 05:17 PM
  14. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    I'd say $25-$40 is much more realistically valuing what the market will pay.
    Per year/per month or one time fee? AirWatch is

    AirWatch

    BES10 is

    https://enterprise.ecomm.webapps.bla...000000001.html
    05-11-13 05:20 PM
  15. fedakd's Avatar
    While the CAL's are a one-time fee, ongoing service fees are not.

    Only problem is that currently is it a one time $100 per device fee. So revenue is $100 times the number of licenses. Lots of what ifs that are not valid.
    matthewriedle likes this.
    05-11-13 05:21 PM
  16. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Only problem is that currently is it a one time $100 per device fee. So revenue is $100 times the number of licenses. Lots of what ifs that are not valid.
    There is the one time license fee, sure, but there is also the recurring monthly service fee. It's not a one time deal. It never has been.

    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 05:21 PM
  17. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    Not true even in the slightest. Each device on the MDM pay a monthly fee. I think the statement of $100 a year is an under assumption as the current BES is over somewhere around the $10 mark. Which would make it $120 per year. But I I am not 100% sure on the fee just going by memory

    Posted via CB10
    Why do people like you post when all you have to do is go to the Blackberry website and check before you post.

    https://enterprise.ecomm.webapps.bla...000000001.html

    So from BB's own website. It is between $90 and and $99 depending on volume for a perpetual license. No monthly fees.
    05-11-13 05:23 PM
  18. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    While the CAL's are a one-time fee, ongoing service fees are not.
    Our company does not pay ongoing service fees for BES 10. So it is not something you can rely on.
    jsmall999 likes this.
    05-11-13 05:25 PM
  19. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    There is the one time license fee, sure, but there is also the recurring monthly service fee. It's not a one time deal. It never has been.

    Posted via CB10
    You need to check again. There is no recurring monthly service charge for BES 10. I challenge you to go to the BES 10 website and find it.
    05-11-13 05:25 PM
  20. fedakd's Avatar
    Quite defensive are we? Odd...

    Just an FYI - I work for a large corporation in Canada (>3000) employees. We use BES10. As part of the BlackBerry ready program, our BlackBerry CAL upgrades have been free, and monthly service fees have been waived for a trial period. I'm amazed you are ignorant enough to believe that all pricing information for a comprehensive solution such as BES10, would be contained on a single page on the BlackBerry enterprise website. There you have it, an answer from an individual working for a corporation that disputes your knowledge gained from visitng the "BES 10 website"!

    Have a great day Bluenoser63!

    You need to check again. There is no recurring monthly service charge for BES 10. I challenge you to go to the BES 10 website and find it.
    05-11-13 05:42 PM
  21. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    Quite defensive are we? Odd...

    Just an FYI - I work for a large corporation in Canada (>3000) employees. We use BES10. As part of the BlackBerry ready program, our BlackBerry CAL upgrades have been free, and monthly service fees have been waived for a trial period. I'm amazed you are ignorant enough to believe that all pricing information for a comprehensive solution such as BES10, would be contained on a single page on the BlackBerry enterprise website. There you have it, an answer from an individual working for a corporation that disputes your knowledge gained from visitng the "BES 10 website"!

    Have a great day Bluenoser63!
    So you are saying that BB has hidden costs that they are not telling customers. Nice.

    Here is a link for the Blackberry Ready program. Please show me where your monthly service fees are waived..

    Program Overview - Canada

    Since you are migrating from BES 5, you do have server costs and legacy service fees. A new BES 10 customer who is not migrating does not have any service fees. So please, before you state something about BES 10 as a service going forward, do some reading.
    05-11-13 05:54 PM
  22. matthewriedle's Avatar
    So what is the answer? Does BES represent recurring revenue for BB or not? As an investor I think this is a pretty important question to have an accurate answer for
    05-12-13 08:41 AM
  23. cjcampbell's Avatar
    So what is the answer? Does BES represent recurring revenue for BB or not? As an investor I think this is a pretty important question to have an accurate answer for
    I sent an email to BlackBerry yesterday asking about this. I hope to have a response tomorrow. As soon as I hear, I'll post the response I get.

    Posted via CB10
    matthewriedle and AT_Nepal like this.
    05-12-13 08:44 AM
  24. THBW's Avatar
    BlackBerry can still boast of something unique: Its "network operations center"
    BLACKBERRY IS MAKING concessions to woo companies, giving away the BES software for free, while waiving the network fee for BlackBerry users who upgrade to BlackBerry 10 devices through the end of this year.

    The BES software has garnered some prominent early customers, including Skadden, Arps and 20th Century Fox, and 4,600 companies are evaluating the software.

    If even a fraction of enterprises take up BES and the NOC, bulls think it could boost the stock.

    Peter Misek, who follows BlackBerry for Jefferies & Co., and rates its shares Buy, doesn't expect BlackBerry will win the smartphone wars. But with perhaps 500 million corporate users of email on mobile devices, worldwide, Misek reasons that if just 10% of them were to take up BlackBerry's offer to use the NOC, and if each one paid $100 per year, the result would be a steady $5 billion in revenue for BlackBerry annually.

    Put a 42% operating margin on that, and you could be looking at $2.50 per share in earnings, for a stock worth $30 at a P/E multiple of 12. With a steady $5 billion in security revenue, BlackBerry could be attractive to an acquirer, he thinks. For example, Misek speculates that Microsoft might want to boost its standing in mobile by buying the company.

    We may know more soon about what a mobile device management stock is worth. The Wall Street Journal reported in March that Good has met with bankers to discuss a public offering that could value the company at $1 billion.

    For the moment, BlackBerry shares will trade based on the market's perception of how the Z10 and Q10, and forthcoming models, sell. But the embedded value of the network is worth keeping an eye on.

    In an increasingly complex mobile world, that network is an asset that will likely continue to represent real value.


    BlackBerry's Plan B: The Network - Barrons.com
    Thanks for an interesting topic as it is a nice change from the usual on the CB site.

    In regards to a take out, I think it is an interesting idea but an improbable one. Unless BB gets into real trouble (which seems unlikely under current conditions), I do not see the federal government approving the sale. They will scuttled the deal, either in the public eye or behind closed doors.

    Having said this, I could see some sort of common buy in arrangement with MS that could bring the two companies closer together. I see this as a real positive for both companies for a couple of reasons. First, MS is struggling in the mobile computing space. It is quite clear that they are unhappy with Windows Mobile OS; they are yet again on a course to revamp the OS (~12-18 months of work). It is also clear that Nokia shareholders are unhappy with the company's commitment to Windows 8 and would like to abandon it. Samsung and Sony are basically losing money on this venture. MS knows it must have a strong presence in the mobile computing space; it is a growth field and it threatens the primacy of the desktop windows platform (the company cash cow). Second from BB perspective, some level of integration with a traditional desktop platform would open BB10 to a broader group of consumers.

    Adding fuel to the fire, we know that MS has a strong interest in RTOS like QNX as they tried this approach with Windows 7 mobile. They see the advantages and would like to effectively move past the competition with the next generation of OS. However, I don't think a buy out would be in the best interest of either company. To be forthright, MS may have market presence and money to burn but they have a long history of being a slow lumbering giant. That is what happens when a company solely focuses on acquisitions as a growth strategy. One can't also ignore the fact that they missed the entire mobile computing idea for the first 5 years. The new BB has shown their ability to adapt and advance the mobile computing space. Their near death experience over the last 18 months has sharpened their focused and their agility.
    05-12-13 09:37 AM
  25. HabsSuck's Avatar
    Gus Papageorgio Scotia Capital is also high on BlackBerry NOC and M2M capabilities

    Posted via CB10
    05-12-13 01:35 PM
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