Passport production is the key - and I'm trying to do the math

Just wanted to add that the reason for low number of shipments is most probably due to component shortages.

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As I live in the US... don't really know much about Passport demand. But if you leave CrackBerry and see what people are saying... I don't see the Passport really being all that high in demand. See many similarity between it and most all BlackBerry products release in the last two years.... lots of hype within the community, vague info from BlackBerry with a lot of positive spin, and ultimately very poor results.

I do agree that if BlackBerry was conservative with their initial production numbers.... it would take a while to increase production from all of their suppliers. But that's only if BlackBerry saw long term demand in the future. So far most BB10 devices have seen an initial surge in demand, and then another when prices dropped. But I don't think Chen plans to cut profits on the Passport.... you pay full price or they don't make it.

The simple truth is "sales" and "shipments" aren't the same thing... they could have sold 200K Passports, but if they only made 100K of them, then they would have created a false sense of demand that could lead your predictions of quarterly results astray. Really need someone doing channel checks with suppliers and carriers.... but as BlackBerry is just a niche player these days, no one is bothering to tack Passport movement. You can hope they say something about it during the next ER, but don't be surprised if they lump sales together the way they did the Z3.

Personally I think that sales last quarter were a result of conversions to BES10 as the 9900 devices are outdated and overpriced. Going BB10 only makes sense IF your are sticking with BlackBerry. And with Free this and Free that... why wouldn't you?

Originally Posted by scalemaster34

As I live in the US... don't really know much about Passport demand. But if you leave CrackBerry and see what people are saying... I don't see the Passport really being all that high in demand. See many similarity between it and most all BlackBerry products release in the last two years.... lots of hype within the community, vague info from BlackBerry with a lot of positive spin, and ultimately very poor results.

I do agree that if BlackBerry was conservative with their initial production numbers.... it would take a while to increase production from all of their suppliers. But that's only if BlackBerry saw long term demand in the future. So far most BB10 devices have seen an initial surge in demand, and then another when prices dropped. But I don't think Chen plans to cut profits on the Passport.... you pay full price or they don't make it.

The simple truth is "sales" and "shipments" aren't the same thing... they could have sold 200K Passports, but if they only made 100K of them, then they would have created a false sense of demand that could lead your predictions of quarterly results astray. Really need someone doing channel checks with suppliers and carriers.... but as BlackBerry is just a niche player these days, no one is bothering to tack Passport movement. You can hope they say something about it during the next ER, but don't be surprised if they lump sales together the way they did the Z3.

Personally I think that sales last quarter were a result of conversions to BES10 as the 9900 devices are outdated and overpriced. Going BB10 only makes sense IF your are sticking with BlackBerry. And with Free this and Free that... why wouldn't you?

Yes, Your logic follows however a couple of reminders. I think it is fair too say that BlackBerry has sold over 250 K in devices. That was confirmed by Chen and orders have been filled. That part is clear. Supply continues to exceed demand by a very wide margin. Not surprising as Chen has a tight rein on production, demand is decent and channels are still being stuffed. The question is production rate, I have heard that hardware manufacturers have a minimum of about 5-10 K per day and I doubt Chen is building up inventory. So one should be able to do some basic calculations. So I think BlackBerry has minimally sold 300 K at the moment.

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Originally Posted by THBW

Yes, Your logic follows however a couple of reminders. I think it is fair too say that BlackBerry has sold over 250 K in devices. That was confirmed by Chen and orders have been filled. That part is clear. Supply continues to exceed demand by a very wide margin. Not surprising as Chen has a tight rein on production, demand is decent and channels are still being stuffed. The question is production rate, I have heard that hardware manufacturers have a minimum of about 5-10 K per day and I doubt Chen is building up inventory. So one should be able to do some basic calculations. So I think BlackBerry has minimally sold 300 K at the moment.

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From conference call transcripts, Chen said that they have pre orders for 200k units and they had purchase order (PO) for those. No where it was mentioned that they have been fulfilled (shipped).

What I'm thinking is, what if the bulk of purchase orders were from distribution channel to sell on to consumers or enterprises??

The reason I'm being pessimistic is when Thorsten was in charge, during Z10 launch BlackBerry announced 1 million units order from a distributor and we all know how it turned out to be. With Chen at the helm it is different, of course.

Can't wait for end of December to find out. :-)

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