03-18-15 04:13 PM
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  1. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    ? As I said the last five years....

    Every year they sell fewer products and they have fewer customers. They have gone from a company that was worth $40 Billion to one that is maybe $5 Billion.

    To redefine the company they need several quarters of growth of some type - Hardware, Services, IoT one of these needs to increase revenues and at an operational profit.
    Thanks for confirming your take on how you define the company, just trying to understand your comments "Company is dying" and "company is declining"....... which do not make any sense at all to me.

    If you are only looking at the share price and how it was affected by Chen being appointed as CEO... that may seem to be a big improvement from $6 to $10 a share. But that seems to bee a more finite snapshot....
    I wasn't actually looking at just the share price to define the company (if that is what you are asking). I used that information to reply to this post that seemed to be a about recent affairs.
    01-26-15 12:54 PM
  2. buwee's Avatar
    Details on upcoming devices aren't going to mean much... it's sales of existing devices!

    The Classic is suppose to be BlackBerry's bread and butter and BES12 is suppose to have fixed everything that Enterprise wanted. So right now what everyone is really waiting on, is to see if there really is a niche and how large it is.

    BlackBerry is a company, and it's life blood is selling products at a profit. The media didn't spin the FACT that hardware sales are down and that Service revenues are down, and thus their life blood is slowly draining away. Chen is the one doing the "spin" with promises of a transfusion by some somthing....

    But simply until he has a product that he can make money on and the customers want to buy.... the Company is dying.
    Ok gotcha, so can I hire you as my financial adviser?
    01-26-15 01:39 PM
  3. playpen007's Avatar
    Wall Street doesn't believe in John Chen business road map to double the revenue from services. When BlackBerry can prove to the street that it can make profit from hardware and software and growing their revenues, that's when the stock price will going up almost everyday I think. Right now they don't believe in John Chen strategy to double service revenues. I've been buying whenever I have some extra money. I know by the time Wall Street realize that BlackBerry can double service revenues, stock price would be in the high 20 or 30. Give it a year or two!
    app_Developer and Superfly_FR like this.
    01-26-15 01:44 PM
  4. savingblackberry's Avatar
    Stock price affects the business: perception issues. Ever heard of Reflexivity... read George Soros.

    The short term stock price has very little to do with the operations of the company.
    01-26-15 11:18 PM
  5. savingblackberry's Avatar
    Bottomline: Put aside ego, put aside pressures from conv debt holders:
    Blackberry spread too thin:
    Devices
    BBM
    QNX
    EMM
    IoT
    Breakup the company in a smart way:
    spinoff BBM
    Separate hardware from software.. so essentially 3 companies"
    Devices
    Software
    Messaging
    Then see how all three do so well, everyone wins... except shorts and competitors
    01-26-15 11:21 PM
  6. birdman_38's Avatar
    Bottomline: Put aside ego, put aside pressures from conv debt holders:
    Blackberry spread too thin:
    Devices
    BBM
    QNX
    EMM
    IoT
    Breakup the company in a smart way:
    spinoff BBM
    Separate hardware from software.. so essentially 3 companies"
    Devices
    Software
    Messaging
    Then see how all three do so well, everyone wins... except shorts and competitors
    Take it a step further and eliminate devices and messaging.
    01-27-15 07:41 AM
  7. anon1727506's Avatar
    Take it a step further and eliminate devices and messaging.
    Sorry guys but the way hardware works, the way BBM works they NOC is used by all of their products... it would be very difficult to start separating out those different division and then having the pay for access. And they all rely on one another too much.

    Without hardware, BES might not survive on it's own, and it really isn't outstanding at managing iOS or Android.... it's just "good" and that might not be good enough.

    BBM Protect is one of the big features of BES that BlackBerry wants to promote... but if it were a separate company that would be difficult.

    Right now if BBM had to pay for access to the NOC, would they survive as a standalone company just selling stickers? And if the hardware went away... where might that leave BBM in the future? Would it possible get more and then more and the even more users to try Line or WA...

    SOUP... when all you have is one scrawny chicken and you want to feed several people, you don't split it up and just give everyone a small pices. You make a soup and combine it together. BlackBerry is spread thin.... but very few of the parts (QNX would) could stand on their own.
    eyesopen1111 and Plummerdc88 like this.
    01-27-15 08:26 AM
  8. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar

    ..... it would be very difficult to start separating out those different division and then having the pay for access. And they all rely on one another too much.

    Without hardware, BES might not survive on it's own.....

    BBM Protect is one of the big features of BES that BlackBerry wants to promote... but if it were a separate company that would be difficult.

    Right now if BBM had to pay for access to the NOC, would they survive as a standalone company just selling stickers? And if the hardware went away... where might that leave BBM in the future? Would it possible get more and then more and the even more users to try Line or WA...

    SOUP... when all you have is one scrawny chicken and you want to feed several people, you don't split it up and just give everyone a small pices. You make a soup and combine it together. BlackBerry is spread thin.... but very few of the parts (QNX would) could stand on their own.

    Curious, but where do you come up with this logic?

    Does not make any sense at all to me. But what do I know.

    scalemaster trying to tip the scales !
    01-27-15 09:44 AM
  9. anon1727506's Avatar
    Curious, but where do you come up with this logic?

    Does not make any sense at all to me. But what do I know.

    scalemaster trying to tip the scales !
    So how do you see them splitting up all these divisions, and have them operate as independent companies....

    Who gets ownership of the NOC?
    Who gets the rights to BB10? Would the hardware company have to pay the Software company to use BB10? What would keep them from thinking it was in their best interest to use Android?
    How much would BBM users have to pay to access the NOC?
    01-27-15 10:46 AM
  10. Coachbulldog's Avatar
    The shorts and paid bashers are hurting the company.
    Who are these "paid bashers" you speak of? How do they manipulate the price of BlackBerry stock?
    01-27-15 10:48 AM
  11. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    So how do you see them splitting up all these divisions, and have them operate as independent companies....

    Who gets ownership of the NOC?
    Who gets the rights to BB10? Would the hardware company have to pay the Software company to use BB10? What would keep them from thinking it was in their best interest to use Android?
    How much would BBM users have to pay to access the NOC?
    I don't believe the answers to those questions are the limiting variables to your hypothesis, but you seem to think so.

    So I am asking you where you get this logic and to prove your statements.
    01-27-15 10:55 AM
  12. app_Developer's Avatar
    Wall Street doesn't believe in John Chen business road map to double the revenue from services. When BlackBerry can prove to the street that it can make profit from hardware and software and growing their revenues, that's when the stock price will going up almost everyday I think. Right now they don't believe in John Chen strategy to double service revenues. I've been buying whenever I have some extra money. I know by the time Wall Street realize that BlackBerry can double service revenues, stock price would be in the high 20 or 30. Give it a year or two!
    Thank you for summarizing this cleanly. It has nothing to do with grand media conspiracies or secret short clubs or anything sinister like that.

    It's a very simple thing. $10 is the equilibrium price given that we don't know if the new strategy is working yet, and we don't know, if it does work, how large or small the resulting BlackBerry company will be. The price will move one way or the other once we have more clarity as FY2016 unfolds.

    And of course the price will jump every time a takeover rumor comes out.

    Why people have to come up with grand conspiracies to explain something this straightforward is beyond me.


    Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk
    01-27-15 10:58 AM
  13. anon1727506's Avatar
    I don't believe the answers to those questions are the limiting variables to your hypothesis, but you seem to think so.

    So I am asking you where you get this logic and to prove your statements.
    I guess we don't see it the same... that is fine.
    01-27-15 11:47 AM
  14. early2bed's Avatar
    Why people have to come up with grand conspiracies to explain something this straightforward is beyond me.
    "They are out to get us" is the oldest rationalization in the book. Apparently, everyone sees the huge potential in this company and it's those darn market-manipulating short-sellers that are keeping the stock price low. It's easier than questioning your own assumptions about BBRY or engaging in any rational debate about the value of the stock. Doing so is practically heresay in the other thread punishable by death.
    Coachbulldog likes this.
    01-27-15 11:54 AM
  15. kyoiskyo's Avatar
    Wall Street doesn't believe in John Chen business road map to double the revenue from services. When BlackBerry can prove to the street that it can make profit from hardware and software and growing their revenues, that's when the stock price will going up almost everyday I think. Right now they don't believe in John Chen strategy to double service revenues. I've been buying whenever I have some extra money. I know by the time Wall Street realize that BlackBerry can double service revenues, stock price would be in the high 20 or 30. Give it a year or two!
    Chen was brought in to sell the company once revenue growth is consistent making BB a valuable target, which might actually happen soon
    Coachbulldog likes this.
    01-27-15 12:13 PM
  16. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    I guess we don't see it the same... that is fine.
    yes, that is for sure.

    but really, i'm here to learn and value what people post about.... so can you explain your statements?

    you also mentioned that BB has no products, and no customers.... didn't get a reply from you on that and wondered if you could confirm that.

    Thanks
    01-27-15 12:32 PM
  17. EchoTango's Avatar
    Chen has put all the pieces in place...at least all the pieces Blackberry can muster to meet what it believes the market wants. Over the last year, much has been invested to re-shape the company and its products to meet this perceived demand. Now will be the confirmation of all of those assumptions, as over the next few quarters the market will decide if there is value in Blackberry solutions or not. I do think patience is needed at this critical time.

    All that said, I'm not sure how many more times Blackberry will be able to reload itself, but I suggest its on one of it's last kicks at the can.
    anon1727506 likes this.
    01-31-15 12:19 PM
  18. savingblackberry's Avatar
    Why not unleash value of one asset at least, spinoff BBM?
    Take a minor strategic partner at a decent valuation, give some freebies. set a floor price.

    Chen has put all the pieces in place...at least all the pieces Blackberry can muster to meet what it believes the market wants. Over the last year, much has been invested to re-shape the company and its products to meet this perceived demand. Now will be the confirmation of all of those assumptions, as over the next few quarters the market will decide if there is value in Blackberry solutions or not. I do think patience is needed at this critical time.

    All that said, I'm not sure how many more times Blackberry will be able to reload itself, but I suggest its on one of it's last kicks at the can.
    02-06-15 02:46 PM
  19. EchoTango's Avatar
    Why not unleash value of one asset at least, spinoff BBM?
    Take a minor strategic partner at a decent valuation, give some freebies. set a floor price.
    I'm not totally against spinning out BBM, but the devil is in the detail. I'm just skeptical that any distribution of proceeds would resemble "the lions on the Serengeti" after a fresh kill and by the time it got the shareholders, very little would remain.

    Last edited by EchoTango; 02-09-15 at 11:56 AM.
    anon1727506 likes this.
    02-06-15 03:53 PM
  20. anon1727506's Avatar
    Why not unleash value of one asset at least, spinoff BBM?
    Take a minor strategic partner at a decent valuation, give some freebies. set a floor price.
    Because BBM is too intergrated into the company....

    BBM works using BlackBerry's NOC, are you going to sell it or would you tell the buyer he'd have to buy bandwidth?

    I do agree that in some markets, BBM has much more value than it does in many other markets. And that as a stand alone product it could be worth more that it is being valued at as part of BlackBerry. But that doesn't mean it would be possible to spin it off.... And if they did, the money would go to operations... not to stockholders.
    02-09-15 11:53 AM
  21. savingblackberry's Avatar
    Sorry but you8 have no idea how financial markets or deal structuring works.
    Because BBM is too intergrated into the company....

    BBM works using BlackBerry's NOC, are you going to sell it or would you tell the buyer he'd have to buy bandwidth?

    I do agree that in some markets, BBM has much more value than it does in many other markets. And that as a stand alone product it could be worth more that it is being valued at as part of BlackBerry. But that doesn't mean it would be possible to spin it off.... And if they did, the money would go to operations... not to stockholders.
    02-09-15 04:42 PM
  22. savingblackberry's Avatar
    It seems Blackberry is all about making certain well connected people rich.

    Chen has put all the pieces in place...at least all the pieces Blackberry can muster to meet what it believes the market wants. Over the last year, much has been invested to re-shape the company and its products to meet this perceived demand. Now will be the confirmation of all of those assumptions, as over the next few quarters the market will decide if there is value in Blackberry solutions or not. I do think patience is needed at this critical time.

    All that said, I'm not sure how many more times Blackberry will be able to reload itself, but I suggest its on one of it's last kicks at the can.
    EchoTango likes this.
    02-09-15 04:43 PM
  23. anon1727506's Avatar
    Sorry but you8 have no idea how financial markets or deal structuring works.
    So explain how you think it would be possible....
    02-16-15 08:56 AM
  24. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    The shorts and paid bashers are hurting the company.
    Stock value ATM is not a concern.
    For months, we've been floating in the $10-$11 range and as long as volumes are anemic, we see now the SP floating up and down on no news. Previously, low volumes meant SP dive as we had a lot of potential sellers (read: renters). Now it seems that the long play is gaining consensus since the rumored buyout by Samsung set a reasonable current "fair value" in the $14s/shr. When this rumor (wave1, 2, 3, 4 and counting) popped, I read no article stating "whooaaat ? $14, this is way too much"; even the bearish analysts stayed silent (the exact same that valued the company in the $6s or worse a few weeks before).

    In a few days, we'll know how the path is followed and if Chen and Sims succeed with BES12 deployment. We'll be monitoring success cases (adoption in the fortune 500), EZpass transformation rate and - last but not least - revenues, for licensing (CALs) and also software (QNX). Devices numbers will also be interesting (we have a little bonus here due to unrecognized late passport sales) yet I'll better monitor gross margin rate and if they keep the 47%+ over the last Q.

    Until then, shorts still have a bone ... but there's less and less meat to nibble.
    Moreover, they can be a nice leverage multiplier on good news; they had hot potatoes on the rumor and they might finally (after piles of $ grabbed in the last years, don't forget it) burn their fingers.

    Chen silence may be intriguing for some ... I for one can smell the napalm

    Cheers
    SF
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 02-17-15 at 04:22 AM.
    02-17-15 03:17 AM
  25. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    BlackBerry is a company, and it's life blood is selling products at a profit. The media didn't spin the FACT that hardware sales are down and that Service revenues are down
    Sell less, but with higher profit is the game here. These figures have no sense intrinsically; yet they are used by some to point out a scenario that is not matching the company strategy. In a way, that's disputable argumentation and there's only a small step until one may call this flawed.
    Service revenues (call them BIS for the past) were driven by individuals and BES was (mostly) on a perpetual BB only CALs model.
    Now the scheme is targeted to enterprises (BB10 extincted BIS for consumers), with a platform agnostic yearly fee CALs model.

    Competition (read Good Tech) is now in a financial situation that reminds dark times for BlackBerry (which is now close to even, hopefully positive this Q) and their financial standing as well as their portfolio of clients is way smaller than BlackBerry's. The (too) long transition leaded by Heins (yes, I mean it) and fine tuned / sublimated by Chen is just about to bear fruit, IMHO. Figures (EPS, not "random") will tell.
    02-17-15 03:51 AM
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