Only time BBRY stock goes up is on buyout rumors: Chen MUST do something NOW
- ? As I said the last five years....
Every year they sell fewer products and they have fewer customers. They have gone from a company that was worth $40 Billion to one that is maybe $5 Billion.
To redefine the company they need several quarters of growth of some type - Hardware, Services, IoT one of these needs to increase revenues and at an operational profit.
If you are only looking at the share price and how it was affected by Chen being appointed as CEO... that may seem to be a big improvement from $6 to $10 a share. But that seems to bee a more finite snapshot....01-26-15 12:54 PMLike 0 - Details on upcoming devices aren't going to mean much... it's sales of existing devices!
The Classic is suppose to be BlackBerry's bread and butter and BES12 is suppose to have fixed everything that Enterprise wanted. So right now what everyone is really waiting on, is to see if there really is a niche and how large it is.
BlackBerry is a company, and it's life blood is selling products at a profit. The media didn't spin the FACT that hardware sales are down and that Service revenues are down, and thus their life blood is slowly draining away. Chen is the one doing the "spin" with promises of a transfusion by some somthing....
But simply until he has a product that he can make money on and the customers want to buy.... the Company is dying.01-26-15 01:39 PMLike 0 - Wall Street doesn't believe in John Chen business road map to double the revenue from services. When BlackBerry can prove to the street that it can make profit from hardware and software and growing their revenues, that's when the stock price will going up almost everyday I think. Right now they don't believe in John Chen strategy to double service revenues. I've been buying whenever I have some extra money. I know by the time Wall Street realize that BlackBerry can double service revenues, stock price would be in the high 20 or 30. Give it a year or two!app_Developer and Superfly_FR like this.01-26-15 01:44 PMLike 2
-
- Bottomline: Put aside ego, put aside pressures from conv debt holders:
Blackberry spread too thin:
Devices
BBM
QNX
EMM
IoT
Breakup the company in a smart way:
spinoff BBM
Separate hardware from software.. so essentially 3 companies"
Devices
Software
Messaging
Then see how all three do so well, everyone wins... except shorts and competitors01-26-15 11:21 PMLike 0 - Bottomline: Put aside ego, put aside pressures from conv debt holders:
Blackberry spread too thin:
Devices
BBM
QNX
EMM
IoT
Breakup the company in a smart way:
spinoff BBM
Separate hardware from software.. so essentially 3 companies"
Devices
Software
Messaging
Then see how all three do so well, everyone wins... except shorts and competitors01-27-15 07:41 AMLike 0 - Sorry guys but the way hardware works, the way BBM works they NOC is used by all of their products... it would be very difficult to start separating out those different division and then having the pay for access. And they all rely on one another too much.
Without hardware, BES might not survive on it's own, and it really isn't outstanding at managing iOS or Android.... it's just "good" and that might not be good enough.
BBM Protect is one of the big features of BES that BlackBerry wants to promote... but if it were a separate company that would be difficult.
Right now if BBM had to pay for access to the NOC, would they survive as a standalone company just selling stickers? And if the hardware went away... where might that leave BBM in the future? Would it possible get more and then more and the even more users to try Line or WA...
SOUP... when all you have is one scrawny chicken and you want to feed several people, you don't split it up and just give everyone a small pices. You make a soup and combine it together. BlackBerry is spread thin.... but very few of the parts (QNX would) could stand on their own.eyesopen1111 and Plummerdc88 like this.01-27-15 08:26 AMLike 2 -
..... it would be very difficult to start separating out those different division and then having the pay for access. And they all rely on one another too much.
Without hardware, BES might not survive on it's own.....
BBM Protect is one of the big features of BES that BlackBerry wants to promote... but if it were a separate company that would be difficult.
Right now if BBM had to pay for access to the NOC, would they survive as a standalone company just selling stickers? And if the hardware went away... where might that leave BBM in the future? Would it possible get more and then more and the even more users to try Line or WA...
SOUP... when all you have is one scrawny chicken and you want to feed several people, you don't split it up and just give everyone a small pices. You make a soup and combine it together. BlackBerry is spread thin.... but very few of the parts (QNX would) could stand on their own.
Curious, but where do you come up with this logic?
Does not make any sense at all to me. But what do I know.
scalemaster trying to tip the scales !01-27-15 09:44 AMLike 0 -
Who gets ownership of the NOC?
Who gets the rights to BB10? Would the hardware company have to pay the Software company to use BB10? What would keep them from thinking it was in their best interest to use Android?
How much would BBM users have to pay to access the NOC?01-27-15 10:46 AMLike 0 -
- So how do you see them splitting up all these divisions, and have them operate as independent companies....
Who gets ownership of the NOC?
Who gets the rights to BB10? Would the hardware company have to pay the Software company to use BB10? What would keep them from thinking it was in their best interest to use Android?
How much would BBM users have to pay to access the NOC?
So I am asking you where you get this logic and to prove your statements.01-27-15 10:55 AMLike 0 - Wall Street doesn't believe in John Chen business road map to double the revenue from services. When BlackBerry can prove to the street that it can make profit from hardware and software and growing their revenues, that's when the stock price will going up almost everyday I think. Right now they don't believe in John Chen strategy to double service revenues. I've been buying whenever I have some extra money. I know by the time Wall Street realize that BlackBerry can double service revenues, stock price would be in the high 20 or 30. Give it a year or two!
It's a very simple thing. $10 is the equilibrium price given that we don't know if the new strategy is working yet, and we don't know, if it does work, how large or small the resulting BlackBerry company will be. The price will move one way or the other once we have more clarity as FY2016 unfolds.
And of course the price will jump every time a takeover rumor comes out.
Why people have to come up with grand conspiracies to explain something this straightforward is beyond me.
Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalkearly2bed and Coachbulldog like this.01-27-15 10:58 AMLike 2 -
- "They are out to get us" is the oldest rationalization in the book. Apparently, everyone sees the huge potential in this company and it's those darn market-manipulating short-sellers that are keeping the stock price low. It's easier than questioning your own assumptions about BBRY or engaging in any rational debate about the value of the stock. Doing so is practically heresay in the other thread punishable by death.Coachbulldog likes this.01-27-15 11:54 AMLike 1
- Wall Street doesn't believe in John Chen business road map to double the revenue from services. When BlackBerry can prove to the street that it can make profit from hardware and software and growing their revenues, that's when the stock price will going up almost everyday I think. Right now they don't believe in John Chen strategy to double service revenues. I've been buying whenever I have some extra money. I know by the time Wall Street realize that BlackBerry can double service revenues, stock price would be in the high 20 or 30. Give it a year or two!Coachbulldog likes this.01-27-15 12:13 PMLike 1
- yes, that is for sure.
but really, i'm here to learn and value what people post about.... so can you explain your statements?
you also mentioned that BB has no products, and no customers.... didn't get a reply from you on that and wondered if you could confirm that.
Thanks01-27-15 12:32 PMLike 0 - Chen has put all the pieces in place...at least all the pieces Blackberry can muster to meet what it believes the market wants. Over the last year, much has been invested to re-shape the company and its products to meet this perceived demand. Now will be the confirmation of all of those assumptions, as over the next few quarters the market will decide if there is value in Blackberry solutions or not. I do think patience is needed at this critical time.
All that said, I'm not sure how many more times Blackberry will be able to reload itself, but I suggest its on one of it's last kicks at the can.01-31-15 12:19 PMLike 0 - Why not unleash value of one asset at least, spinoff BBM?
Take a minor strategic partner at a decent valuation, give some freebies. set a floor price.
Chen has put all the pieces in place...at least all the pieces Blackberry can muster to meet what it believes the market wants. Over the last year, much has been invested to re-shape the company and its products to meet this perceived demand. Now will be the confirmation of all of those assumptions, as over the next few quarters the market will decide if there is value in Blackberry solutions or not. I do think patience is needed at this critical time.
All that said, I'm not sure how many more times Blackberry will be able to reload itself, but I suggest its on one of it's last kicks at the can.02-06-15 02:46 PMLike 0 -
Last edited by EchoTango; 02-09-15 at 11:56 AM.
02-06-15 03:53 PMLike 0 -
BBM works using BlackBerry's NOC, are you going to sell it or would you tell the buyer he'd have to buy bandwidth?
I do agree that in some markets, BBM has much more value than it does in many other markets. And that as a stand alone product it could be worth more that it is being valued at as part of BlackBerry. But that doesn't mean it would be possible to spin it off.... And if they did, the money would go to operations... not to stockholders.02-09-15 11:53 AMLike 0 - Sorry but you8 have no idea how financial markets or deal structuring works.
Because BBM is too intergrated into the company....
BBM works using BlackBerry's NOC, are you going to sell it or would you tell the buyer he'd have to buy bandwidth?
I do agree that in some markets, BBM has much more value than it does in many other markets. And that as a stand alone product it could be worth more that it is being valued at as part of BlackBerry. But that doesn't mean it would be possible to spin it off.... And if they did, the money would go to operations... not to stockholders.02-09-15 04:42 PMLike 0 - It seems Blackberry is all about making certain well connected people rich.
Chen has put all the pieces in place...at least all the pieces Blackberry can muster to meet what it believes the market wants. Over the last year, much has been invested to re-shape the company and its products to meet this perceived demand. Now will be the confirmation of all of those assumptions, as over the next few quarters the market will decide if there is value in Blackberry solutions or not. I do think patience is needed at this critical time.
All that said, I'm not sure how many more times Blackberry will be able to reload itself, but I suggest its on one of it's last kicks at the can.EchoTango likes this.02-09-15 04:43 PMLike 1 -
- Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorStock value ATM is not a concern.
For months, we've been floating in the $10-$11 range and as long as volumes are anemic, we see now the SP floating up and down on no news. Previously, low volumes meant SP dive as we had a lot of potential sellers (read: renters). Now it seems that the long play is gaining consensus since the rumored buyout by Samsung set a reasonable current "fair value" in the $14s/shr. When this rumor (wave1, 2, 3, 4 and counting) popped, I read no article stating "whooaaat ? $14, this is way too much"; even the bearish analysts stayed silent (the exact same that valued the company in the $6s or worse a few weeks before).
In a few days, we'll know how the path is followed and if Chen and Sims succeed with BES12 deployment. We'll be monitoring success cases (adoption in the fortune 500), EZpass transformation rate and - last but not least - revenues, for licensing (CALs) and also software (QNX). Devices numbers will also be interesting (we have a little bonus here due to unrecognized late passport sales) yet I'll better monitor gross margin rate and if they keep the 47%+ over the last Q.
Until then, shorts still have a bone ... but there's less and less meat to nibble.
Moreover, they can be a nice leverage multiplier on good news; they had hot potatoes on the rumor and they might finally (after piles of $ grabbed in the last years, don't forget it) burn their fingers.
Chen silence may be intriguing for some ... I for one can smell the napalm
Cheers
SFLast edited by Superfly_FR; 02-17-15 at 04:22 AM.
world traveler and former ceo likes this.02-17-15 03:17 AMLike 1 - Superfly_FRRetired Moderator
Service revenues (call them BIS for the past) were driven by individuals and BES was (mostly) on a perpetual BB only CALs model.
Now the scheme is targeted to enterprises (BB10 extincted BIS for consumers), with a platform agnostic yearly fee CALs model.
Competition (read Good Tech) is now in a financial situation that reminds dark times for BlackBerry (which is now close to even, hopefully positive this Q) and their financial standing as well as their portfolio of clients is way smaller than BlackBerry's. The (too) long transition leaded by Heins (yes, I mean it) and fine tuned / sublimated by Chen is just about to bear fruit, IMHO. Figures (EPS, not "random") will tell.02-17-15 03:51 AMLike 0
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