1. angrybear123's Avatar
    I admit it, I am a Blackberry fan. This often clouds my judgment. But I think the judgment of everyone around here is even MORE clouded, when it comes to the ranting conspiracy theories about how Wall Street wants to kill Blackberry. This seems to have hit a fevered pitch around here ever since that stupid report from Detwiler about the returns > sales. But hey, maybe you Crackberry nuts as CNBC affectionately calls you, are right, so I decided to do some back of the envelope calcs/research.

    Pulled up the target prices for BBRY from as many shops as I could, and put them in three categories, Canadian, US, and Other (mainly European).

    Averages:
    Canada: ~$15
    US: ~$15
    Other/EU: ~$9
    All together: ~$13

    Range:
    Canada: $9-$22
    US: $7-$22
    Other/EU: $7-$13

    Conclusion: Confirmed. Youre all nuts - there is no grand conspiracy, designed and concocted somewhere in New York, to kill our precious BBRY. Yes, there are maybe some bad reports, put out by questionable analysts, that get far too much press (Detwiler?). Maybe there are even some purposefully manipulative reports put out by analysts designed to knock down the stock (I still dont believe, but I can accept the possibility). But if thats the case, be happy to know there are just as many analysts on the other side of that trade.

    So... yeah, relax, Crackberry Nation. All is well. You can put down the pitchforks now.
    04-16-13 12:11 AM
  2. hurds's Avatar
    *raises pitchfork*

    "GET HIM"!!!!


    Good research (didn't check it so it could be bad research)

    But for arugments sake, how do these numbers disprove a conspiracy? Wouldn't these numbers support a conspiracy?

    If you compare BBs PE to some other company, like other tech companies such as Amazon and Netflix doesn't BB look undervalued?
    Maybe its not a conspiracy and a lot of people somehow dont see the value and opportunities BB has. But to be honest, I'd expect that from regular people, not from analysts. Did you forget they were calling for BBs death for over 2 years now? Did you forget the stock has more than doubled since sept, a company that was supposed to be dead? Did you forget the non-stop trash reporting thats been going on for 2 plus years now? did you forget that these firms have changed their price targets??? It'll be interesting if someone goes back and looks over everything that was reported. Its the digital age. It will happen. And a lot of people are going to look stupid.
    theRock1975 likes this.
    04-16-13 01:16 AM
  3. angrybear123's Avatar
    Haha.

    Most technology companies that have fared as Blackberry has would have a distribution of opinions that look similar to this. Afterall, as much as we have faith in this company, I think it's very easy for all of us to see that the argument for BBRY's success isn't assured, it's not a slam dunk. So I don't think it's fundamentally wrong to have bearish reports, so long as those reports are logical and make sense (eg. not Detwiler). We can also make a convincing argument why the future is as bright as the sun, and there are quite a few bullish reports floating out there too. If we look at just North America at least, there doesn't seem to be much geographical bias going on either, so no cheering for the home team or anything like that (although I'm curious about the Euro/Other results).

    I think if we suppose some of those on the bear side have been releasing unfair reports with the goal of driving down the stock, I think we should also consider that there are also analysts out there who are on the bull side who are releasing their own reports (with the purpose of providing their clients good research, which in turn, would drive up the stock). So, really, anyone who was simply just trying to produce nonsense and drive down the stock likely wouldn't get very far, but would easily tarnish his/her own reputation, IMO. THAT, I believe, disproves this conspiracy notion. I mean you pretty much would need to have half the street in on the game to pull that off. That doesn't seem to be in the numbers. I do believe of a lot of the analysts reporting has been unfair (and let's face it, just plain bad) but from what I can tell, it has been MOSTLY done in good faith (with some notable exceptions, of course). Which is why I don't believe the conspiracy nonsense.

    Also, to your point RE analysts vs regular people, I think most of the time when people around here get worked up re the stock, it's due to the "regular people" articles. Like reviews on tech blogs that seem to hate BBRY (eg BGR), or those terrible financial sites that obscure more than they illuminate, because they let anyone with a keyboard publish and distribute articles to thousands of people (eg. SEEKING ALPHA). When looking at those who are SUPPOSEDLY the most knowledgeable on this firm, these wall st analysts, the bottom line target prices from their reports do not seem outrageous.

    Finally, yeah, the analysts have got a lot wrong over the years. And yes, they left this company for dead. But let's also not forget that a ton of them also had RIMM pegged in the triple digits when it was on it's way straight down. Every subsequent quarter the stock tanked more and more after each earnings, many would remain steadfast in their bullishness. So if we want to talk about the firms who changed their price targets, I think we have a situation where they have been more foolish than deliberately malicious. I mean I'm not saying these analysts have been great, I'm just saying I don't believe this notion they are deliberately lying because they have some sort of agenda beyond producing the best research for their clients.

    ps - I'm down for being a BBRY "homer", but let's not be crazy. AMZN/NFLX are your comparables? Come on now. AMZN is growing revs at 50% a year, and NFLX has built a content and distribution moat that may be impossible for competitors to breach (at least for now). BBRY is a totally different animal, it's a turn around story, for now at least.
    04-16-13 01:45 AM
  4. fedakd's Avatar
    Let me get this straight: You pulled out a few analyst reports, averaged them, and concluded we're all nuts. Some admirable work there, OP. Your insight is appreciated.

    PS. I think your username says it all.
    europolska00 and John Pawling like this.
    04-16-13 01:50 AM
  5. angrybear123's Avatar
    Let me get this straight: You pulled out a few analyst reports, averaged them, and concluded we're all nuts. Some admirable work there, OP. Your insight is appreciated.

    PS. I think your username says it all.
    Yup. If there was a grand conspiracy out there to obfuscate and outright lie on Blackberry, shouldn't we expect way more reports that are calling for low price targets? Or a massive imbalance towards the low end? It's not there. If there is a conspiracy amongst Wall Street, they aren't doing a good job.

    PS - Thank you for your kind words. Your validation is all I need.
    04-16-13 01:55 AM
  6. europolska00's Avatar
    Yup. If there was a grand conspiracy out there to obfuscate and outright lie on Blackberry, shouldn't we expect way more reports that are calling for low price targets? Or a massive imbalance towards the low end? It's not there. If there is a conspiracy amongst Wall Street, they aren't doing a good job.

    PS - Thank you for your kind words. Your validation is all I need.
    But what the poster above is highlighting is that you failed to prove your point. Just because you threw some numbers at us and then professed,therefore we are all wrong, without a cogent argument it doesn't make it so. Your argument is weak at best and certainly did not add any clout or concrete evidence to your case.

    The amount of short stock, however, is staggering. That coupled with false media reports which offer no proof or figures, all though it is not conclusive proof of manipulation, definitely raises eyebrows and suspicion. Market manipulation by hedge fund managers shorting stock is a reality. And if you think other wise you are either ignorant or in denial.

    None of this is proof that there is something maniacal going on behind the scenes, but there definitely is cause for suspicion. And where there is smoke there usually is fire.

    As for "PS - Thank you for your kind words. Your validation is all I need", what are you a child? You made a post to discuss a post and someone countered it. No need to behave like that.
    fedakd likes this.
    04-16-13 12:58 PM
  7. greggebhardt's Avatar
    I admit it, I am a Blackberry fan. This often clouds my judgment. But I think the judgment of everyone around here is even MORE clouded, when it comes to the ranting conspiracy theories about how Wall Street wants to kill Blackberry. This seems to have hit a fevered pitch around here ever since that stupid report from Detwiler about the returns > sales. But hey, maybe you “Crackberry nuts” as CNBC affectionately calls you, are right, so I decided to do some back of the envelope calcs/research.

    Pulled up the target prices for BBRY from as many shops as I could, and put them in three categories, Canadian, US, and Other (mainly European).

    Averages:
    Canada: ~$15
    US: ~$15
    Other/EU: ~$9
    All together: ~$13

    Range:
    Canada: $9-$22
    US: $7-$22
    Other/EU: $7-$13

    Conclusion: Confirmed. You’re all nuts - there is no grand conspiracy, designed and concocted somewhere in New York, to kill our precious BBRY. Yes, there are maybe some bad reports, put out by questionable analysts, that get far too much press (Detwiler?). Maybe there are even some purposefully manipulative reports put out by analysts designed to knock down the stock (I still don’t believe, but I can accept the possibility). But if that’s the case, be happy to know there are just as many analysts on the other side of that trade.

    So... yeah, relax, Crackberry Nation. All is well. You can put down the pitchforks now.
    I have found for the most part if it is good news they all clap and it make the happy. If it is bad, they do not want to hear it. I like were you get both sides so people can make real choices with "balanced" information. The Z10 is no rose garden, but with a few updates it will get better and better.
    04-16-13 02:45 PM
  8. gordo51's Avatar
    A conspiracy would imply a number of analysts, traders, etc., working in consort to keep BlackBerry stock down. I don't believe that is the case but I do believe that in some individual cases there has been a deliberate attempt to provide slanted information with the intent to lower the stock.


    Posted via CB10
    04-16-13 03:41 PM
  9. mrfreetruth's Avatar
    160,000,000 shares are sold short. The number of misleading articles on BBRY is so great and numerous its hard not to connect the the 160,000,000 shares sold short and the outright lies being printed in the media. We already have a lot of so called cb fans on here who are not fans at all.

    Posted via CB10
    theRock1975 likes this.
    04-16-13 09:59 PM

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