06-28-13 10:23 AM
33 12
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  1. The Aficionado's Avatar
    The quarterly report will be dominated by robust bb10 sales ( > 4 million ) on the one hand, but a greater than expected decline in BlackBerry subscribers on the other.

    Earnings will be positive, and greater than the previous quarter, but not huge.

    Immediate effect on the stock price will be volatility, but ultimately slightly negative, as the bears and enormous short interests will remain in control

    I am frequently right about these kinds of things. I will bump this thread on June 28 (even if I am completely wrong)

    Posted via CB10
    richardat and ccbs like this.
    06-22-13 10:30 PM
  2. howarmat's Avatar
    probably not far off. I agree it will be slightly better for totals maybe in the 7 mil range
    06-22-13 10:36 PM
  3. pacho69's Avatar
    I agree as last earnings BBRY got clobbered, but not till CCall so therefore I will trade around earnings cuz I don't trust the shorts and their Analists who will be concocting their negative stories while the big hedge short funds play their games. Crooked game, and easy to get burned , so hard to play for us small fish. Patience is key and belief. Long BBRY.
    06-22-13 10:50 PM
  4. Tre Lawrence's Avatar
    The quarterly report will be dominated by robust bb10 sales ( > 4 million ) on the one hand, but a greater than expected decline in BlackBerry subscribers on the other.

    Earnings will be positive, and greater than the previous quarter, but not huge.

    Immediate effect on the stock price will be volatility, but ultimately slightly negative, as the bears and enormous short interests will remain in control

    I am frequently right about these kinds of things. I will bump this thread on June 28 (even if I am completely wrong)

    Posted via CB10
    Love the forthrightness.
    06-22-13 10:51 PM
  5. The Aficionado's Avatar
    Love the forthrightness.
    Thank you

    While I'm here again I want to change my statement of "slightly negative" to a range of neutral to somewhat negative


    Posted via CB10
    06-22-13 11:03 PM
  6. stots's Avatar
    I just want to see the stock go up. I am sick of this company being undervalued.

    BlackBerry Z10- I use it for a phone and a computer
    ezapper2 likes this.
    06-22-13 11:29 PM
  7. richardat's Avatar
    Heh, I think you predictions is quite reasonable, but if you want to claim prescience you have to be a lot more precise than more than greater than 4 million!!!! ;-). First, It's hard to imagine them coming under four, so that's almost guaranteed -hopefully! Moreover, with such small numbers, if you're off by 1 million, it's like being off by 10 million for the big apple/sung! I want
    You to predict to 100,000! :-)

    Yes, the market will see some quick trading but if they come in around 4 it's pretty much as expected and confirms the general magnitude most of us are expecting. I think 4-6 will be unsurprising in terms of the long term outlook. We are kind of down to much ado about nothing now. If they go over estimates by 500,000 some will have seizures of pleasure proclaiming the overwhelming success - geez think about that!! On the other hand, if they get 3, people will say... Oh... Horror...

    Barring surprise sales, I guess subscribers will be the only thug with potential for drama!
    06-23-13 12:04 AM
  8. Zarpan's Avatar
    I think that if they get above 4 million BB10 shipments and earnings greater than last quarter, the effect on stock price would be at least moderately positive.

    The Street's expectations seem to be for 3-4 million BB10 shipments and a $0.03 EPS. Getting 4+ million BB10 shipments and $0.20+ EPS would be a healthy beat.

    If they get over 5 million BB10 shipments, that's greater than any analyst has predicted so far.
    06-23-13 01:51 AM
  9. EvanRitch's Avatar
    Do they really have to provide a subscriber base? Kind of annoying that if it goes down by 1 person the shorts will say "see you do have a new phone but are still losing people"
    06-23-13 06:09 AM
  10. aloy12's Avatar
    I predict that sales would be above 5 mil for bb10 devices and we could see sales of the older bb7 models also doing great due to price reductions. Overall market share of BlackBerry should be up at least by 30%. If they announce a licensing deal for BB10 at the same time with either Sony, LG or Lenovo that would send the stock price to a record high. Keep in mind they are building apps rapidly, have got Skype working, support for Android 4.2.2 with ability to run any Andriod app and qnx are the positives that BlackBerry has.

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-13 07:31 AM
  11. Aljean Thein's Avatar
    Wasn't there a thread about BlackBerry just sold 5 million phones? Or was that another prediction...

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-13 11:16 AM
  12. DenverRalphy's Avatar
    I'm guessing about 8 million in shipments. 5 million in sales. Subscribers remain flat (more accurately a negative/positive swing too negligible to note). Revenue up, but balanced by costs.

    This past quarter isn't a critical quarter though. Everybody knows that the past couple quarters would be sustained by current BB users and their upgrades to boost sales. The next quarterly report will be the big one. The one that predicts the fate of BBRY going forward.

    SwiftKeyed/Flowed via TapaTalk 4 beta.
    06-23-13 02:18 PM
  13. InWithTheNew's Avatar
    The quarterly report will be dominated by robust bb10 sales ( > 4 million ) on the one hand, but a greater than expected decline in BlackBerry subscribers on the other.

    Earnings will be positive, and greater than the previous quarter, but not huge.

    Immediate effect on the stock price will be volatility, but ultimately slightly negative, as the bears and enormous short interests will remain in control

    I am frequently right about these kinds of things. I will bump this thread on June 28 (even if I am completely wrong)

    Posted via CB10
    Your predictions are vague. So you're saying a good bb10 number but big decline in subs? So you're also calling a big drop in legacy devices, and if so what then is your total phone shipment numbers?

    I may be wrong here but sales from a Bb10 phone is recognized immediately as opposed to service revenue on a older phone.

    What do you see guidance to be considering components parts makers have said that BlackBerry has orders 2-3 quarters out?

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-13 02:56 PM
  14. howarmat's Avatar
    I predict that sales would be above 5 mil for bb10 devices and we could see sales of the older bb7 models also doing great due to price reductions. Overall market share of BlackBerry should be up at least by 30%. If they announce a licensing deal for BB10 at the same time with either Sony, LG or Lenovo that would send the stock price to a record high. Keep in mind they are building apps rapidly, have got Skype working, support for Android 4.2.2 with ability to run any Andriod app and qnx are the positives that BlackBerry has.Posted via CB10
    up to 30% worldwide? everything else you just said is wrong or a big exageration
    06-23-13 05:04 PM
  15. Delil's Avatar
    Up 30% isn't a lot. Lets say they had 9% marketshare. 30% up means marketshare will be 11,7%.

    Posted via CB10
    peter9477 likes this.
    06-23-13 05:20 PM
  16. howarmat's Avatar
    Up 30% isn't a lot. Lets say they had 9% marketshare. 30% up means marketshare will be 11,7%.

    Posted via CB10
    Ok I can understand it if that is what he meant

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-13 05:23 PM
  17. aloy12's Avatar
    06-23-13 05:38 PM
  18. JonCBK's Avatar
    When talking BBRY one needs to distinguish between bb10 phones and bb07. The sale of bb07 phones is meaningless since the are sold so cheap there is no profit in them.
    4 million bb10 phones would be huge since the q10, was barely available in the last quarter.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
    06-23-13 06:08 PM
  19. aloy12's Avatar
    They sold, 1 million in Q1 and that was with limited availability and only Z10. Now with the Z10 available worldwide and Q10 in limited availability it should be above 5 million. Plus bb7 still gets you the service revenue.

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-13 06:11 PM
  20. Delil's Avatar
    Are they still producing BB7 phones or are they just selling what's in stock?

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-13 11:44 PM
  21. Aljean Thein's Avatar
    Are they still producing BB7 phones or are they just selling what's in stock?

    Posted via CB10
    We're hearing a brand new os7 phone to be release soon..
    06-24-13 12:00 AM
  22. The Aficionado's Avatar
    Heh, I think you predictions is quite reasonable, but if you want to claim prescience you have to be a lot more precise than more than greater than 4 million!!!! ;-). First, It's hard to imagine them coming under four, so that's almost guaranteed -hopefully! Moreover, with such small numbers, if you're off by 1 million, it's like being off by 10 million for the big apple/sung! I want
    You to predict to 100,000! :-)

    Yes, the market will see some quick trading but if they come in around 4 it's pretty much as expected and confirms the general magnitude most of us are expecting. I think 4-6 will be unsurprising in terms of the long term outlook. We are kind of down to much ado about nothing now. If they go over estimates by 500,000 some will have seizures of pleasure proclaiming the overwhelming success - geez think about that!! On the other hand, if they get 3, people will say... Oh... Horror...

    Barring surprise sales, I guess subscribers will be the only thug with potential for drama!
    Ok

    Let me try to be more precise then

    Bb10 sales of 4.4 million
    Bbos sales of 3.3 million
    Total subscribers at 69 million
    Earnings of $300 million

    Immediate Effect on the sp will be high volatility, and slightly negative

    Have done some research and although these are guesses I'm not just pulling numbers out of a hat

    Posted via CB10
    06-24-13 12:41 AM
  23. The Aficionado's Avatar
    And btw I do not think that 4 million is basically a guarantee. The consensus is around 3.3 million, with some analysts still saying below 3. Four million would be well above expectations.

    The concern is that even with good sales the subscriber loss will make it seem as though bb could dwindle down to being irrelevant. In a growing smartphone market they should be increasing subscribers even if the market share is not growing

    Posted via CB10
    sparkaction and wehttam like this.
    06-24-13 12:46 AM
  24. stots's Avatar
    do you guys think these are good numbers for the company???? IF you are right of course.

    BlackBerry Z10- I use it for a phone and a computer
    06-24-13 05:13 AM
  25. greggebhardt's Avatar
    My fear is that if the ER does not show really stellar performance it will have a negative effect on BBRY. You better have your finger on the "button" or have stops established as the stock could swing wildly in either direction. To the people here that have had too much "Blackberry Koolaid", you better quit drinking it on about Wednesday to allow your mind to clear and act accordingly!
    wehttam, kevinnugent and ccbs like this.
    06-24-13 05:15 AM
33 12

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