05-08-13 11:17 PM
26 12
tools
  1. bpmg4u's Avatar
    April 29, 2013: On the official Q10 Pre-Order Launch day (here) in Canada we also heard on the business news that the "Short Interest" in BB-T and BBRY-Q had INCREASED by 8 million shares to 34% of the open float (source: BNN news).
    Even those just marginally in-the-know in things "stock-markets" know that this news doesn't bode well.

    With Q10 set to deliver LOTS more 'good news' for the new platform and the company's resurgence, and the share price "up" a healthy +/-2.6% today alone, get ready for an onslaught of bogus bad news, questionable (user) comments, and highly suspect ("analyst" / commentator) downgrades.

    Expect to hear: "see, there's NO lineups at the store; no-one's buying this thing!!!" or "initial user comments aren't positive" and "first day sales at "stores X & Y are well below expectations." But this is the 'mild' run-of-the-mill stuff the market no longer really reacts to.
    SO, I predict the "short-interest" will throw EVERYTHING possible at the wall. You might hear things you KNOW are wrong, yet it will be created, produced, written and sourced SO well and authentic-looking - even plausible - that it just might get you to question your own existence.

    They'll say ANYTHING you can think of - and THEN SOME! - to keep the shares from going higher (or to drive them down) and to keep customers from switching or uprading to Q or Z10.
    Everything from technical 'bugs' to 'customer dissatisfaction,' samsung's & htc's 'hot new' phones, and more, even "something" about BB's back-end network will enter the mix of news, rumors, analysis and interviews.
    That old BB network outage newsflash has THAT has proven outrageously effective to create well-publicized user anger, user-FUD, and share price mayhem in the past. THIS doesn't take a rocket-scientist degree to envision.
    Even if it's later recanted or recinded as "erroneous" or "mistaken" or explained away, the share price will have taken a hit and $millions will have been made by a few and lost by the rest, with often irreparable "Brand and Sales damage" done.

    Timing & creativity of these messages, and sources of the information will be key here, so pay attention and protect your investments - OR keep $$ handy to step in (it'll take all the cohones you can muster!!) just as or after the share price takes a hit.

    So, "Watch Out!" starting TODAY (Thorsten is speaking at the Milken Conference in California) & going forward about a month or so, as activation & returns data, channel-checks, store-exit interviews, youtube user videos, and "tech-head" comparisons & commentary start becoming possible and available.

    Either way, if you're a share holder "know this is coming" and prepare yourself a strategy, or a mental health plan.
    If you're a prospective BB10 user thinking of getting a new Q or Z, trust your instincts and give the ecosystem and user interface a fair, unbiased shake.
    And, ignore the ber-creative BS coming y/our way: it's intentionally designed and manufactured SOLELY to keep you away just so someone else can make s#*tloads of money.

    Cheers and Keep Moving!
    04-29-13 11:51 AM
  2. distributor1's Avatar
    The one thing about a big short interest is that if they fail, the rebound (the famous short squeeze) is pretty violent. Hopefully this will happen and all the longs can stand by and applaud as the shorts get squeezed out... at a corresponding loss
    04-29-13 12:05 PM
  3. ricocan's Avatar
    There has to be some significant and vocal long share holders out there ready to weigh in and protect their investments, Why are the short positions so active and not the long, I am not sure this adds up, with 34% short there is 64% on the other side, this shouldn't be a fair fight, but I am not an investor so there is likely lots I am missing.

    Posted via CB10
    04-29-13 12:28 PM
  4. FSeverino's Avatar
    There has to be some significant and vocal long share holders out there ready to weigh in and protect their investments, Why are the short positions so active and not the long, I am not sure this adds up, with 34% short there is 64% on the other side, this shouldn't be a fair fight, but I am not an investor so there is likely lots I am missing.

    Posted via CB10
    Sheer numbers.

    if there are 10 people saying something bad and 1 person saying something good which do you think you would hear?

    now, keep in mind that the short holders are most likely billion dollar companies looking to milk the system of more money... and the long riders are mostly people who believe in RIM but dont have money to buy thousands of shares. Money talks, and when the majority of shorts are held by powerful companies they will do what it takes to make money.
    04-29-13 01:31 PM
  5. theRock1975's Avatar
    There has to be some significant and vocal long share holders out there ready to weigh in and protect their investments, Why are the short positions so active and not the long, I am not sure this adds up, with 34% short there is 64% on the other side, this shouldn't be a fair fight, but I am not an investor so there is likely lots I am missing.

    Posted via CB10
    The shorts are really in the red. The stock more than doubled since it's lows last year and in the same time the number of shorted shares doubles as well.

    Longs don't have to be so fierce. We're sleeping well and buying on the dips.


    Posted via CB10
    04-29-13 01:37 PM
  6. Dgree03's Avatar
    What I don't understand is, altho there can be some stock manipulation to favor the shorts.... why are they shorting to begin with? Shouldn't that be question we are asking?

    There must be a reason to short the stock....
    04-29-13 02:26 PM
  7. FunGuyLover's Avatar
    Hmmm, looks like some of the shorts are doubling down. Sheer desperation is my read. Stinks to be them.

    Posted via CB10
    04-29-13 02:43 PM
  8. jrohland's Avatar
    Short sellers believe it will go down and/or they believe they can drive it down. Usually short selling is used to hedge against losses on long holdings. But, there are some hardcore shorts out there that like to play in that arena. The thing about shorts sales is there is potentially no limit to your losses but your gains are limited. When long your loss limit is 0. If you are holding short on BBRY and let's say Verizon announces Z sales are better than expected, CPW (UK) announces they can't keep Qs in stock, India announces they sold millions and DoD announces they are buying 900,000 immediately with 5 million total purchases expected. If you are short, a dive from the 14th floor starts to look good.

    In case you don't understand short selling this is basically how it works: You bet that shares are going to drop. Someone lends you money based on the current share price for shares you will own sometime latter. The price difference between today's price and the prices when you committed to buy (the cover date) is your gain or loss.

    For example: Today's share price is $14. You lend me enough money to buy a million shares at today's price and I agree to deliver them in 10 days. If the price in 10 days is $10, I've made $4 a share. (There are fees and taxes of course but that is the basic idea).

    Now, lets say you lend be enough for a million shares at $14 that I've promised to deliver in 10 days but the price per share in 10 days is $22 (unlikely I know). I've lost $8 a share.

    The lower the share price goes, the more the short seller makes. If it goes to 0, that is the most he can make. If, however, great news comes out in the intervening 10 days and the shares skyrocket, the short seller could loose astronomical amounts of money. There is no limit if the price keeps climbing until the cover date. He can cover anytime so, if he losses his nerve and covers early, he could limit his losses.
    04-29-13 03:03 PM
  9. newcollector's Avatar
    Short sellers believe it will go down and/or they believe they can drive it down. Usually short selling is used to hedge against losses on long holdings. But, there are some hardcore shorts out there that like to play in that arena. The thing about shorts sales is there is potentially no limit to your losses but your gains are limited. When long your loss limit is 0. If you are holding short on BBRY and let's say Verizon announces Z sales are better than expected, CPW (UK) announces they can't keep Qs in stock, India announces they sold millions and DoD announces they are buying 900,000 immediately with 5 million total purchases expected. If you are short, a dive from the 14th floor starts to look good.

    In case you don't understand short selling this is basically how it works: You bet that shares are going to drop. Someone lends you money based on the current share price for shares you will own sometime latter. The price difference between today's price and the prices when you committed to buy (the cover date) is your gain or loss.

    For example: Today's share price is $14. You lend me enough money to buy a million shares at today's price and I agree to deliver them in 10 days. If the price in 10 days is $10, I've made $4 a share. (There are fees and taxes of course but that is the basic idea).

    Now, lets say you lend be enough for a million shares at $14 that I've promised to deliver in 10 days but the price per share in 10 days is $22 (unlikely I know). I've lost $8 a share.

    The lower the share price goes, the more the short seller makes. If it goes to 0, that is the most he can make. If, however, great news comes out in the intervening 10 days and the shares skyrocket, the short seller could loose astronomical amounts of money. There is no limit if the price keeps climbing until the cover date. He can cover anytime so, if he losses his nerve and covers early, he could limit his losses.
    Thanks for making the "short" position clear.
    04-29-13 03:17 PM
  10. bpmg4u's Avatar
    First off, the basics of shorting are that you "sell a stock that you don't own yourself but have borrowed from someone for a small 'rental fee' with the expectation that the share price will go DOWN, at which point you buy the shares at the now lower price to return to your lender."

    "GENERALLY" shorting really only works "well" or reliably for stocks whose companies are already "expected to NOT be doing very well" OR "expected to perform" where the share price doesn't yet reflect that future loss in actual value.

    SO, you don't have to actually "buy" the shares (at the higher price), but instead pay a small "fee" (aka "premium") for the privilege.
    Therefore, you can "play the action" on a 1000 shares without having to commit a huge $$ amount upfront for the potential benefit.

    HOWEVER, "shorting" is outrageously risky, because as the short-holder you've sold the borrowed shares at price $X, expecting/believing/hoping the price will go DOWN by "$Y, at which point you re-purchase the shares to cover (return to your lender) the short position, and pocket the difference.

    BUT, if the share price rises - which it hypothetically could, "to infinitity" - the potential loss is theoretically unlimited. While that's not likely to happen, the principle means that the maximim profit for short-sellers is a share price decline TO $0.01/share, whereas the maximum loss is - again - potentially unlimited.

    When the price rises, short-sellers will will want/need to "cover" their positions by re-buying the shares at the current - higher - price to limit further losses, should shares rise even higher. They usually do so at various times and price levels. BUT, when the price JUMPS SUDDENLY & all at-once - say by 5% or more - EVERY short seller will likely cover at the same time ... in panic!! And be forced to pay the rising market price thereby driving price even higher, faster.
    This is called a short-squeeze ... and I'm REALLY hoping for one on BBRY in the coming weeks (a one-day $1/share price rise to almost $17 will trigger either a short-squeeze OR the already prophesized slew of bad "suspicion-reports" and questionable negative analyst news releases/downgrades.

    The fact is, most short-sellers are short for just days at a time to ride a wave of expected NEGATIVE announcements, news reports or an earnings period. Very few short sellers from last Fall (BBRY @ $6/share) would have stayed short for too long, esp. as the price rose to $7, then $10, then $14 and $16.

    BUT, anyone expecting BB10 (Z and Q) to flop, OR for other 'significant' bad news (new iphoneX, etc.) WOULD go short at $15 for an expected quick 25-40% pay-off.

    Because of the recent 8 million short-share increase, I'd say "something's brewing." When SO many speculators have such an incredibly huge interest in knocking the share price down, something's bound to give, no matter how good the actual news really is.

    The burden of proof always lies on the company to prove its own good news.
    What's more, ANY & ALL "good news" can be discounted or called into question - to limit the expected resulting share-price upside - WITHOUT ANY REQUIREMENT FOR PROOF since "bad news" like a hint of 'something not quite right' is good enough to ALWAYS scare the cr@p out of many holders & drive the price lower by sending people running for the exit. EVEN if it's later shown to have been false.

    A little "reasonable doubt" is ALL that's required; something that ONLY works in favour of the negative side, because there is no burden of proof on them for any news or information.
    i.e.: reporting a sales number of X million units will be met with "1) not possible; there were no lineups in any store, 2) they can't do THAT again, 3) the other guys are bringing out X# new models, so sales will slow, 4) it's underspec'd, has lots of flaws and not enough apps that it won't stay popular or catch on widely, 5) false reports of a network outage in Eastern Tangeria, and 6) more units were returned after 2 weeks than originally sold ...." etc., etc., ...
    We've all heard such news/info or speculation before about BBRY, and every single time it sent share prices DOWN right when it should/would otherwise have gone higher. Pure market manipulation!

    So, in a nutshell, THAT'S WHY people short-sell a stock. Clear as mud now??

    What I don't understand is, altho there can be some stock manipulation to favor the shorts.... why are they shorting to begin with? Shouldn't that be question we are asking?

    There must be a reason to short the stock....
    Zouyu likes this.
    04-29-13 04:09 PM
  11. bpmg4u's Avatar
    well, looks like others beat me to the concurrent posting of the reply; between all our replies, I'm sure you'll get the picture.

    Cheers!
    04-29-13 04:11 PM
  12. dbmalloy's Avatar
    As for why the stock is shorted is simple... the bears believe over the long term BB is dead.... Most live in the past and believe it impossible for BB to regain the market... add in the "paid" analysts who also believe BB is toast... and have a vested interst ot report such.....-what kind of reports do you think you will see...

    The main problem in all of this is not the stock market... investors.... or even the analysts.....it is the media in general... To the point.... they are lazy..... If a company like Detwieler can generate an outrageous report with a great header "Z10 has more returns than Sales"....it is a gold mine for the blogasphere and Media in general.... Lots of site hits...... the headline goes out.... is bascially copy and pasted by other blogs or news media... No one checks to see if it actually true... why would they do that????? stock market takes notice of all the negative chatter.... traders only see the headline... stock tanks..... It comes back to the old term.. if it bleeds it leads.....

    negative stories simply sell better than positive ones.... especially when the negative ones feed into the stereotype that BB is dying and nothing can save it..... add in the short interest... you have in essence a self fullfilling prophecy if left unchallenged....

    What many to not realize is the brillaince of BB going after Detwieller... the only reason the story was done in the first place was to drive down stock prices... they never dreamed BB wouldchallenged it... as up to that point BB has been silent when the more rediculouse reports came out... not this time... in the Bloomberg interview today...

    HIenz made it clear the BB is working with the SEC to continue to investiage the analyst and company in question... the comment in the interview I feel was well thought out as it puts out the message..."we are not standing for this nonsense any more"......

    The usual suspects are still at work... fawcette and company still crank out half truths in a hope to drive stock down.... the tipping point is upon us... it BB is truly successful the poistive stories will simply outweight the negative and the media will have to take notice and I believe they are starting to... follow this trend quite a bit and I have found a 50/50 split on possitve versus negative... vast improvement over the last couple of years...

    In the end it is the sales reports and balance sheet in the next quarterly report that will tell the tale... not the analysts... not the media... but the users of BB products that will
    decide BB's fate....
    bpmg4u likes this.
    04-29-13 06:01 PM
  13. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Good posts. However I don't like the infinity argument. As shorts like to say - I've seen a lot more stocks go to 0 than infinity.

    Posted via CB10
    04-29-13 07:20 PM
  14. Xuexiang Hu's Avatar
    04-30-13 07:55 AM
  15. jrohland's Avatar
    Good posts. However I don't like the infinity argument. As shorts like to say - I've seen a lot more stocks go to 0 than infinity.

    Posted via CB10
    Agreed. However, I did say it is theoretically possible but unlikely. Trading shorts on a firm with 0 dept and a lot of cash (compared to the overall value of the company) is an extreme gamble--in my opinion. I do have to wonder if any of these short sellers did some independent research. Maybe they are just such junkies for the thrill they don't care. To bad it is usually someone else's money they are gambling.
    04-30-13 08:00 AM
  16. unbreakablej's Avatar
    Another noobie question... is it possible to know what is the price range the shorts are aiming for? Like are they public knowledge? Or does anyone knows them?

    Posted via CB10
    05-01-13 05:14 AM
  17. ibpluto's Avatar
    Another noobie question... is it possible to know what is the price range the shorts are aiming for? Like are they public knowledge? Or does anyone knows them?

    Posted via CB10
    It will vary depending on what the price of the stock was when it was borrowed.

    Posted via CB10 from my awesome Z10
    unbreakablej likes this.
    05-01-13 07:02 AM
  18. peter9477's Avatar
    Another noobie question... is it possible to know what is the price range the shorts are aiming for? Like are they public knowledge? Or does anyone knows them?
    It's no more possible than it is to know the "price range the longs are aiming for". And note that even if a given long has such a price range, they could change it at any time, and many do frequently.
    unbreakablej likes this.
    05-01-13 08:46 AM
  19. phinsphan's Avatar
    Shorting is less risky than people think for these guys.

    Funds that are doing this can work to protect their downside from the dreaded infinity through the options market. The risk is largely an overblown aspect of short selling for professionals. Buying calls to hedge their bet or exit the trade can be used. Other hedging strategies to pick up money on the volatility which I'm sure are large premiums given the nature of the stock. I haven't checked myself.

    Very likely a large number of the short interest was probably initially driven by an Apple to RIMM pair trade. The idea being you buy one stock and sell and equal amount of the other. Hedges against declining industry, stock market, or economy with the idea being you are using your expertise to judge who the winners and losers are. As seen over the last year they would be very very wrong and could be doubling down each month/quarter in hopes they will eventually have a good explanation for their clients. Just speculation on my part.
    05-01-13 01:33 PM
  20. bpmg4u's Avatar
    Well, THAT (network outage) didn't take long to materialize; whether a "real, actual" outage or a "made-up" one, it just looks suspiciously like a convenient "development." Conspiracy theorists rejoyce!!

    Either way, looks like I missed my calling as a rocket scientist ...

    April 29, 2013: On the official Q10 Pre-Order Launch day (here) in Canada we also heard on the business news that the "Short Interest" in BB-T and BBRY-Q had INCREASED by 8 million shares to 34% of the open float (source: BNN news).
    Even those just marginally in-the-know in things "stock-markets" know that this news doesn't bode well.

    With Q10 set to deliver LOTS more 'good news' for the new platform and the company's resurgence, and the share price "up" a healthy +/-2.6% today alone, get ready for an onslaught of bogus bad news, questionable (user) comments, and highly suspect ("analyst" / commentator) downgrades.

    Expect to hear: "see, there's NO lineups at the store; no-one's buying this thing!!!" or "initial user comments aren't positive" and "first day sales at "stores X & Y are well below expectations." But this is the 'mild' run-of-the-mill stuff the market no longer really reacts to.
    SO, I predict the "short-interest" will throw EVERYTHING possible at the wall. You might hear things you KNOW are wrong, yet it will be created, produced, written and sourced SO well and authentic-looking - even plausible - that it just might get you to question your own existence.

    They'll say ANYTHING you can think of - and THEN SOME! - to keep the shares from going higher (or to drive them down) and to keep customers from switching or uprading to Q or Z10.
    Everything from technical 'bugs' to 'customer dissatisfaction,' samsung's & htc's 'hot new' phones, and more, even "something" about BB's back-end network will enter the mix of news, rumors, analysis and interviews.
    That old BB network outage newsflash has THAT has proven outrageously effective to create well-publicized user anger, user-FUD, and share price mayhem in the past. THIS doesn't take a rocket-scientist degree to envision.

    Even if it's later recanted or recinded as "erroneous" or "mistaken" or explained away, the share price will have taken a hit and $millions will have been made by a few and lost by the rest, with often irreparable "Brand and Sales damage" done.

    Timing & creativity of these messages, and sources of the information will be key here, so pay attention and protect your investments - OR keep $$ handy to step in (it'll take all the cohones you can muster!!) just as or after the share price takes a hit.

    So, "Watch Out!" starting TODAY (Thorsten is speaking at the Milken Conference in California) & going forward about a month or so, as activation & returns data, channel-checks, store-exit interviews, youtube user videos, and "tech-head" comparisons & commentary start becoming possible and available.

    Either way, if you're a share holder "know this is coming" and prepare yourself a strategy, or a mental health plan.
    If you're a prospective BB10 user thinking of getting a new Q or Z, trust your instincts and give the ecosystem and user interface a fair, unbiased shake.
    And, ignore the ber-creative BS coming y/our way: it's intentionally designed and manufactured SOLELY to keep you away just so someone else can make s#*tloads of money.

    Cheers and Keep Moving!
    05-03-13 04:23 PM
  21. southlander's Avatar
    Short sellers believe it will go down and/or they believe they can drive it down. Usually short selling is used to hedge against losses on long holdings. But, there are some hardcore shorts out there that like to play in that arena. The thing about shorts sales is there is potentially no limit to your losses but your gains are limited. When long your loss limit is 0. If you are holding short on BBRY and let's say Verizon announces Z sales are better than expected, CPW (UK) announces they can't keep Qs in stock, India announces they sold millions and DoD announces they are buying 900,000 immediately with 5 million total purchases expected. If you are short, a dive from the 14th floor starts to look good.

    In case you don't understand short selling this is basically how it works: You bet that shares are going to drop. Someone lends you money based on the current share price for shares you will own sometime latter. The price difference between today's price and the prices when you committed to buy (the cover date) is your gain or loss.

    For example: Today's share price is $14. You lend me enough money to buy a million shares at today's price and I agree to deliver them in 10 days. If the price in 10 days is $10, I've made $4 a share. (There are fees and taxes of course but that is the basic idea).

    Now, lets say you lend be enough for a million shares at $14 that I've promised to deliver in 10 days but the price per share in 10 days is $22 (unlikely I know). I've lost $8 a share.

    The lower the share price goes, the more the short seller makes. If it goes to 0, that is the most he can make. If, however, great news comes out in the intervening 10 days and the shares skyrocket, the short seller could loose astronomical amounts of money. There is no limit if the price keeps climbing until the cover date. He can cover anytime so, if he losses his nerve and covers early, he could limit his losses.
    good description. I have read descriptions of shorting on widely read financial sites that were a lot less clear.

    Sent from my BlackBerry Runtime for Android Apps using Tapatalk 2
    05-03-13 04:38 PM
  22. savingblackberry's Avatar
    Lets start that short squeeze. There is nothing more I would like to see than to see these bashers and short sellers get hurt.
    05-07-13 11:42 PM
  23. z10fido's Avatar
    I'd like to see the longs hurt too. The ones who keep claiming sp should be 40+. Scammers all of them

    Posted via CB10
    05-07-13 11:47 PM
  24. Eldon Wilk's Avatar
    The shorts had excellent reasons when the stock was in the 100 down to the $15 range. The OS. Was old the phones where old the IPhone booming stealing all sorts of customers. At least in N. America. We get blinded thinking we are the center of the universe. The shorts got stuck in their postition when it hit $6 and became a bargain on account of cash held by Bbry and its liquidation value. Plus it held its cash and was able to develop and put out its new line the Bb10 that most myself included thought impossible. And I am long berry for quite some time now. 175 to 180 million shares shorted @ $15 is one heck of a lot of money. Someone is in big trouble if they cannot find a way out.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    05-08-13 03:49 AM
  25. savingblackberry's Avatar
    Or there is a buyout or a deal of some sort and price goes up to $50, then you lose $36 million. Dive from 14th floor not only looks good but becomes necessary :-)
    05-08-13 12:23 PM
26 12

Similar Threads

  1. VERY BAD News on BB10 - March is toooooo LATE
    By HartfordWhalers in forum General BlackBerry Discussion
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 10-09-12, 12:45 PM
  2. OMG i want some more news on the ONYX!!
    By tuffguyx93 in forum BlackBerry Bold 9700
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 06-30-09, 11:20 AM
  3. Bad news on AT&T release
    By phonegeek in forum BlackBerry Bold 9000
    Replies: 80
    Last Post: 08-24-08, 02:16 AM
  4. Any New news on the release of OS 4.5?
    By redline1337 in forum BlackBerry Curve 83xx
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 05-17-08, 06:13 PM
  5. Any news on the new Pearl?
    By cbs2669 in forum News & Rumors
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-10-07, 11:40 PM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD