03-05-14 12:11 AM
48 12
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  1. Omnitech's Avatar
    Back to their old tricks, it seems.

    I suppose some would chalk this up to ignorance, but I have a hard time excusing blatant factual errors that have a substantial material impact on the perception of the value of a company. Especially for someone who works for a Canadian guy who used to be a consistent supporter of RIM/BBRY. The author claims to be long AAPL.

    Here's the idiotic/malicious statement:

    "Before you argue that BBM is monetized and WhatsApp is not, consider that BBM has been shedding users over the past couple of quarters."

    And here's the article with the idiotic title:

    Dumb Money Buys Into BlackBerry Head Fake - TheStreet
    03-03-14 03:03 PM
  2. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    The article makes no sense. Sales of BlackBerry devices don't matter when talking about number of BBM users. BBM is also available for Android and iOS, and will be coming to Windows Phone. Since it isn't necessary to use a BlackBerry device to use BBM, why is this writer even mentioning BlackBerry device sales numbers?



    Sent from my Nokia Lumia 920 using Tapatalk
    kbz1960 likes this.
    03-03-14 03:15 PM
  3. app_Developer's Avatar
    The article makes no sense. Sales of BlackBerry devices don't matter when talking about number of BBM users. BBM is also available for Android and iOS, and will be coming to Windows Phone. Since it isn't necessary to use a BlackBerry device to use BBM, why is this writer even mentioning BlackBerry device sales numbers?



    Sent from my Nokia Lumia 920 using Tapatalk
    He's a little all over the place. I think he's saying the recent rise in value is due to BBM, but that investors shouldn't forget that BB's core business, the one that drives the top line, is still deteriorating.

    He attributes the rise in value to BBM, and then argues that BBM isn't a good enough reason to put BB at $10.

    On the BBM numbers, is BB publishing active user stats still?



    Sent from my iPhone 5S using Tapatalk
    03-03-14 03:20 PM
  4. Omnitech's Avatar
    The article makes no sense. Sales of BlackBerry devices don't matter when talking about number of BBM users. BBM is also available for Android and iOS, and will be coming to Windows Phone. Since it isn't necessary to use a BlackBerry device to use BBM, why is this writer even mentioning BlackBerry device sales numbers?

    True, but what really blew my mind is how they completely reversed the BBM userbase situation. When BBM Cross-Platform was released in October, the BBM userbase exploded. How this guy could be completely ignorant of that and state that BBM has been "shedding users over the past couple of quarters" is just outrageous to me.

    And BlackBerry management has also stated that when they released the new version that supports Android Gingerbread last month, that gave another substantial jolt to the BBM userbase.

    SMH!
    Laura Knotek and bungaboy like this.
    03-03-14 03:24 PM
  5. Omnitech's Avatar
    On the BBM numbers, is BB publishing active user stats still?

    I don't know about totals, but they have stated as of at least last month if not earlier, that the release of BBM-X resulted in 40 million new, active users.
    03-03-14 03:26 PM
  6. app_Developer's Avatar
    I don't know about totals, but they have stated as of at least last month if not earlier, that the release of BBM-X resulted in 40 million new, active users.
    I saw those, but that doesn't tell us how long they were active. I forgot the wording they used, but I remember there being a little bit of spin there.

    You also realize 40M new users is at best $200M in new value, if we're being extremely generous. The stock has gone up by more than $200M.

    Until they publish number of messages per day or number of active users per day, it's hard to say whether BBM is growing or not. I think the author is not correct in assuming it's shrinking. But, on the other hand, if messages per day were growing significantly I would think we'd have heard about it?


    Sent from my iPhone 5S using Tapatalk
    techvisor likes this.
    03-03-14 03:32 PM
  7. kirson's Avatar
    I don't know about totals, but they have stated as of at least last month if not earlier, that the release of BBM-X resulted in 40 million new, active users.
    True, but they also said total active users are 80 or 85 million. And that number hasn't changed since the last quarterly release (and may actually have gone down a bit). Given how hard it is to gauge active users on BBM, I tend to be nervous about the actual numbers.
    03-03-14 03:34 PM
  8. Omnitech's Avatar
    I saw those, but that doesn't tell us how long they were active. I forgot the wording they used, but I remember there being a little bit of spin there.

    On the contrary, based on what I read at the time, I felt like BlackBerry was being more conservative than most of the competition in how they counted users.

    Have you ever looked at how Microsoft counts Skype users? The vast majority of the ones in their userbase claims have barely touched the app.
    03-03-14 03:35 PM
  9. Omnitech's Avatar
    True, but they also said total active users are 80 or 85 million. And that number hasn't changed since the last quarterly release (and may actually have gone down a bit). Given how hard it is to gauge active users on BBM, I tend to be nervous about the actual numbers.

    Well if it really is so hard to gauge, then why are the loudmouth stock analysts like this so quick to state bearish so-called "facts"??

    Analysts which, I should add, are long AAPL.
    southlander likes this.
    03-03-14 03:36 PM
  10. app_Developer's Avatar
    On the contrary, based on what I read at the time, I felt like BlackBerry was being more conservative than most of the competition in how they counted users.

    Have you ever looked at how Microsoft counts Skype users? The vast majority of the ones in their userbase claims have barely touched the app.
    How was BlackBerry being conservative exactly?


    Sent from my iPhone 5S using Tapatalk
    03-03-14 03:36 PM
  11. OMGitworks's Avatar
    On the contrary, based on what I read at the time, I felt like BlackBerry was being more conservative than most of the competition in how they counted users.

    Have you ever looked at how Microsoft counts Skype users? The vast majority of the ones in their userbase claims have barely touched the app.
    From the Ocotber release: *Monthly active users are defined as BBM customers who use the BBM service within a 30-day period.

    I am not sure we have seen an update since October which is troubling to me. It was 80M back then too and many of those BBMx could have gone away after that 30 day period.

    BBM Welcomes Over 20 Million New Active Users in the First Week - Press Releases
    techvisor likes this.
    03-03-14 03:46 PM
  12. notafanboy's Avatar
    Poor haters trying to justify ***** analysts with misleading and incorrect information. Smart money is ignoring these idiots who are behind the curve and buying bbry. Look at the market bloodbath today and see bbry was up almost 4%. I continue like other investors to buy commons or calls on every dip which are usually on low volume and the rise is on high volume.

    Posted via CB10
    03-03-14 03:53 PM
  13. 1magine's Avatar
    He's partially right. The most recent run-up in BBRY valuation is in-part due to BBM. The fact that 1. FB bought what's app for a ship load of money. 2. The fact that Chen said he would take the same amount of money to sell BBM. 3. Now it is an absolute horse race to see who can figure out how to monetize these cross-platform messengers. If What's App, a non-monetized app is worth that much, BBM must be worth almost as much, and if BBM can figure out how to make some money with it....

    Unfortunately the article writer may have had a really intense workout this morning and released some long stored THC from fatty cells. The author may not have realized he was stoned at the time he wrote this. Or, he just might not have been very bright.
    03-03-14 04:00 PM
  14. Omnitech's Avatar
    How was BlackBerry being conservative exactly?

    If I had remembered the specifics I would have stated why previously.

    I just recall that they seemed careful to explain (perhaps OMGitworks quote was the one) what they meant by active users, and that "users" were not simply "people that downloaded the app" or "downloaded the app, setup an account and never used it" etc, which seems to be an altogether common way of inflating the claimed popularity of all sorts of services and apps.
    03-03-14 04:06 PM
  15. Kiddo2050's Avatar
    I saw those, but that doesn't tell us how long they were active. I forgot the wording they used, but I remember there being a little bit of spin there.

    You also realize 40M new users is at best $200M in new value, if we're being extremely generous. The stock has gone up by more than $200M.

    Until they publish number of messages per day or number of active users per day, it's hard to say whether BBM is growing or not. I think the author is not correct in assuming it's shrinking. But, on the other hand, if messages per day were growing significantly I would think we'd have heard about it?


    Sent from my iPhone 5S using Tapatalk
    Understand your point but same analysts tote 450 million What's App users. Nope, I have it and don't use it. They never quote active users, and how active.
    03-03-14 05:05 PM
  16. sixpacker's Avatar
    Poor haters trying to justify ***** analysts with misleading and incorrect information. Smart money is ignoring these idiots who are behind the curve and buying bbry. Look at the market bloodbath today and see bbry was up almost 4%. I continue like other investors to buy commons or calls on every dip which are usually on low volume and the rise is on high volume.

    Posted via CB10
    This is a completely subjective, pointless argument without real verified active user figures. All we know is Facebook paid 17bn and this has temporarily boosted bbry shares, so why a bbry fan should grumble I have no idea. Champion whingers.
    03-03-14 05:17 PM
  17. kg4icg's Avatar
    During MWC, Chen had stated that bbm was at 85 million active users. That was recently as last week.

    Posted via CB10
    03-03-14 05:23 PM
  18. byex's Avatar
    Did everyone look at the source of the article?
    Take it with a grain of salt. Anything that has Cramers' name and accounting fraud and billing fraud associated with it should be avoided, or at the least be very sceptical.

    This guy Cramer has come out and stated on numerous occasions of manipulating stock to benefit himself and his cronies.

    Posted via CB10
    03-03-14 05:50 PM
  19. randall2580's Avatar
    Whatsapp engagement as reported by Zuckerberg...

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/knowledg...4/02/28/72014/

    Posted via the Android CrackBerry App!
    03-03-14 06:38 PM
  20. Omnitech's Avatar
    Did everyone look at the source of the article?
    Take it with a grain of salt. Anything that has Cramers' name and accounting fraud and billing fraud associated with it should be avoided, or at the least be very sceptical.

    This guy Cramer has come out and stated on numerous occasions of manipulating stock to benefit himself and his cronies.

    I didn't know that. You have some links?

    That firm is regularly quoted on all sorts of high-profile web financial pages.
    03-04-14 02:19 AM
  21. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Understand your point but same analysts tote 450 million What's App users. Nope, I have it and don't use it. They never quote active users, and how active.
    I don't think this is accurate. I don't have exact recall of the WhatsApp stats but they gave daily users and if my memory is correct is was well over 50% of users using the service daily. That is a very specific and useful number to have reported and way more detailed than what BBRY gives us.

    Edit, thanks to Randall for that link I saw after I posted:

    “WhatsApp is the only widely used app we’ve ever seen that has more engagement and a higher percentage of people using it daily than Facebook itself,” Zuckerberg added. (According to CNET, the engagement rate of WhatsApp’s monthly users on a daily basis is 70%, whereas Facebook’s is around 61%.)
    techvisor likes this.
    03-04-14 07:17 AM
  22. OMGitworks's Avatar
    During MWC, Chen had stated that bbm was at 85 million active users. That was recently as last week.

    Posted via CB10
    This is very disturbing for BBM's future. We know on 10/29 BBRY told us they had "over 80M users" 10M of which downloaded the app in the first 24 hours and 20M in the first week. Apparently since the first week of the release of BBMx there has been almost no growth. This would be totally consistent with my anecdotal observations here in the Boston and NYC areas.

    So.... according to BBRY's own statements BBM added only 5M users in the last 4 months, while WhatsApp added about 120-125M quality users (70% daily engagement) in the same period. That's about 6.5% growth (maybe) for BBRY while WA is growing at about 45-50%. Can't even imagine the growth since the FB aquisition. These are facts, not my opinion.

    I don't agree with the author as his premise seems foolish and inaccurate. However, I think those who are trying to use the FB purchase of WA to value BBM are equally foolish. The growth rate tells you that in simple math. The numbers,at least in this case, don't lie.
    03-04-14 07:47 AM
  23. Omnitech's Avatar
    Apparently since the first week of the release of BBMx there has been almost no growth.


    The impression I have gotten from people in developing countries that were historically big BBM users on BBOS legacy devices is that when BBMx was released, a lot of them moved to BBM on Android.

    These are a key consituency that I would guess BlackBerry is hoping to "keep in the fold" by releasing products like the Z3.

    BBM users on Android are fine, but BBM users who are also BlackBerry device owners are even better.
    OMGitworks likes this.
    03-04-14 07:52 AM
  24. byex's Avatar
    I didn't know that. You have some links?

    That firm is regularly quoted on all sorts of high-profile web financial pages.
    Just google thestreet.com accounting fraud or Cramer stock manipulation

    Posted via CB10
    03-04-14 07:53 AM
  25. RyanGermann's Avatar
    These figures are all exaggerated, because the only people who really have the figures have an incentive to exaggerate.

    Until these services offer calls to land lines (either free or for a fee) for me, Skype is going to be my main chat app, and all my friends and family have it, it supports voice calls and video calls and text messages and file transfers and also does calls to landlines... but Skype is not stable, the call quality is spotty, the BB10 app is not native and it's only the most resent version on BB10 that is even usable... but if Skype ever "gets it right" on BB10, I probably won't see much need for any other chat programs... or, if BBM has a Windows Desktop app and adds voice calls to land lines / cell phones, it's BuhBye skype for me (and everyone who lets me near their computers).

    So, BlackBerry, get on that desktop clients for all major OSes (Win / Mac / Linux) and add "BBM calls to phone lines & mobiles" subscription service and you win.

    BBM network technology is superior to Skypes, and so there is still an opportunity to win on features and quality.

    GO BlackBerry! (that is to say: do whatever it takes to bring this to fruition in as short a time as possible, and don't let your silly ideas of "strategy" get in the way. DO IT FAST.)
    03-04-14 10:19 AM
48 12

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