[sixpacker]

The stock would not go up if what you just said was true...

Z10STL100-3/10.2.0.1803

What wasn't true? They are the facts.
The stock market is not a rational beast we'll see how long the upward blip lasts.

[zee3p0]

Its going down. The stock market is the "bankers""traders" business. And their business is to take your money. Think rationaly. Declining sales, revenue, write downs, costs above revenue, heavy cash burn. Does that sound like a stock institutions are going to take large long positions in or does it sound like a short squeeze with traders taking profits and driving options out of the money? Use your brains people.





Posted via CB10

[qwerty4ever]

Cash flow is most important result. Cash reserves are much much higher than street expected. Stock is just a $3.3 billion market cap while company hold $3.2 billion in cash. This stock price isn't impressive. It is just the market going, hmmm, maybe these guys aren't going to be out of business in a year.

Of the USD3.3 billion dollars you have to keep in mind the recent USD1.0 billion dollar debenture (cash) provided to BlackBerry as part of the agreement with Fairfax Financial Holdings. The patent portfolio is worth a substantial percentage of the overall BlackBerry asset portfolio. The cash position simply indicates the company has the monetary assets to cover debt and operational expenditures. The likely reason the share price increased after the quarterly earnings report is the going-forward strategy outlined by the new chief executive officer. Never underestimate the influence of a charismatic, straight-talking leader.

[southlander]

Probably because Chen was straightforward, didn't talk in circles or use vague metaphors, and people think this guy might actually be able to execute. Waterloo has been a Circus for quite some time and at least now they got someone from outside the Waterloo distortion field and this is good.

Posted via CB10

Plus Chen has been in a similar situation before and as a CEO fixed the issues. Turned things around. And did so by moving his company into a new business area.

Z10STL100-4/10.2.1.1259

[zee3p0]

60 million dollars a year in intrest on that loan. 400 million dollar cash burn this quarter. Costs are nearly exceeding revenue. BB10 isn't going to just start selling even if it does it getting sold at costs. BBOS device sales slowing. Services revenue on the decline due to BBOS users switching devices. New revenue not on the horizon. That cash is dead you might as well assume cash is gone and company is in debt. On an optimistic outlook if they can get costs to the level they were 7 years ago, (a stretch) they will need to bring in revenue of 1.6 billion just to break even. Good luck.

Posted via CB10

[eddy_berry]

Its going down. The stock market is the "bankers""traders" business. And their business is to take your money. Think rationaly. Declining sales, revenue, write downs, costs above revenue, heavy cash burn. Does that sound like a stock institutions are going to take large long positions in or does it sound like a short squeeze with traders taking profits and driving options out of the money? Use your brains people.

Not everyone is going to see the numbers the same way. I see a company writing off hardware to essentially start anew on that front through a contract with Foxconn. I could be wrong. But that doesn't make you right. Nobody knows how these things play out but some are seeing it as a good sign and Chen chalked up some interest. Shorts are covering. Yes. Maybe because they think the stock price will rise again? Who knows.

Posted via CB10

[rim4ever]

Its going down. The stock market is the "bankers""traders" business. And their business is to take your money. Think rationaly. Declining sales, revenue, write downs, costs above revenue, heavy cash burn. Does that sound like a stock institutions are going to take large long positions in or does it sound like a short squeeze with traders taking profits and driving options out of the money? Use your brains people.





Posted via CB10

Do you know that this stock has over 50% institutional ownership? Perhaps these big boys have used their brains before they invested big money in this company.

BlackBerry Limited (BBRY) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com

[mastermike87]

It's called a short squeeze. Seriously people; stock market for dummies. Pick one up for x-mas.

Posted via CB10

[BigAl_BB9900]

Cash flow is most important result. Cash reserves are much much higher than street expected. Stock is just a $3.3 billion market cap while company hold $3.2 billion in cash. This stock price isn't impressive. It is just the market going, hmmm, maybe these guys aren't going to be out of business in a year.

In summary, the consensus in the markets was that BlackBerry would be in a worse place than the ER showed - eg the pre-ER price of the stock already had the less optimistic outcome calculated into it

The ER shows that BlackBerry is in a better place than the consensus had expected - therefore the stock price has risen to reflect the new improved analysis. Cash flow & cash reserves are a big part of the new calculations - other factors include: progress in downsizing, uptake of BBM by iOS/Android, reduced inventory, new hardware manufacturing contracts, expected value of patent portfolio, and a judgement (probably positive) of the difference that a new management team will make

[sosumi11]

Seriously, BlackBerry spent gazillions on bringing their new innovative BB10 devices to market and they didn't sell.

They failed big time.

According to real earth logic, companies make money by selling products at a profit. Not producing a product that sits on a retail shelf. The product must sell in order to make a profit.

Today, BlackBerry does not have a product that people want. Out of the 4.3 million devices sold last quarter, 1.1 million were BB10.

BlackBerry has to do something different and that means something not phone related in order to bolster the brand back up. And producing a cheap phone for Indonesians is not exactly earth shattering. It's a desperate effort to get products in the wild. It doesn't matter whether the product is good anymore.

Everyone at BlackBerry has the same myopic viewpoint.
They still think the phone is the future.

[bspence87]

It's called a short squeeze. Seriously people; stock market for dummies. Pick one up for x-mas.

Posted via CB10

Shorts cover when they anticipate the stock price rising (or at least not declining further).

Read page 2.

[bspence87]

Seriously, BlackBerry spent gazillions on bringing their new innovative BB10 devices to market and they didn't sell.

They failed big time.

According to real earth logic, companies make money by selling products at a profit. Not producing a product that sits on a retail shelf. The product must sell in order to make a profit.

Today, BlackBerry does not have a product that people want. Out of the 4.3 million devices sold last quarter, 1.1 million were BB10.

BlackBerry has to do something different and that means something not phone related in order to bolster the brand back up. And producing a cheap phone for Indonesians is not exactly earth shattering. It's a desperate effort to get products in the wild. It doesn't matter whether the product is good anymore.

Everyone at BlackBerry has the same myopic viewpoint.
They still think the phone is the future.

How much money does Google make off their phones?

BlackBerry just needs to get the phones into people's hands, even at a loss. The real money is in service revenues.

[JonCBK]

How much money does Google make off their phones?

BlackBerry just needs to get the phones into people's hands, even at a loss. The real money is in service revenues.

Unless there is some huge security issue or bbry comes up with some killer feature, they aren't going to sell many phones at any price. They will have to get their revenue from services. The phones are just going to be part of the complete corporate security solution. But not actually a revenue generator.

To chime in on the prior discussion, the gaap loses really don't mean much. A gaap loss is a good thing in that it lowers tax liability and in case of bbry may even get them a tax refund applied to earlier taxes. Cash flow is the real issue and they didn't do too badly there.

Posted via CB10

[sati01]

Unless there is some huge security issue or bbry comes up with some killer feature, they aren't going to sell many phones at any price. They will have to get their revenue from services. The phones are just going to be part of the complete corporate security solution. But not actually a revenue generator.

To chime in on the prior discussion, the gaap loses really don't mean much. A gaap loss is a good thing in that it lowers tax liability and in case of bbry may even get them a tax refund applied to earlier taxes. Cash flow is the real issue and they didn't do too badly there.

Posted via CB10

Cash flow was awful, It just look good in appearance.
-BlackBerry received most of the tax refund in q3, $696m. In fact, they used all the carryback and the last $170m are expected in q4. No more tax refund in the future.
-They had positive change in working capital of $1b. But It's an illusion, huge current liabilities in the Balance sheets. I expect a $1.2b negative change in working capital in the next 2 or 3 quarters. It could be more if Venezuela doesn't pay (150m).
-The layoffs are just starting, $475m in CORE are expected in the next 2 quarters.
-Purchase commitments are $1.5b. From that $500m are intangible assets that they are going to buy in the next two quarters, they said in the E.C. I expect $300m-$500m cash hit in canceling the other $1b commitments, unless sales of Zs and Qs jump unexpectedly.

So, BlackBerry is going to burn more than $2 billion in the next 2 or 3 quarters. If sales keep falling of a cliff they could easily run out of cash. They have $200m in "Assets held for sale", but I think they need the extra $250m convertible debt for some extra margin.

[southlander]

If I had to guess. And yes it's all just guessing. I'd say "the market" likes the fact that BlackBerry is not about to rashly release another billion dollars write down phone. The big money loser has been hardware. PlayBook. Then the BlackBerry 10 phones.

The Jakarta will be lower cost to build, and as I understand the Foxconn deal BlackBerry won't need to make large commitments. Add to that that that device will likely only be sold in to remaining markets where BlackBerry is still selling a fair amount of BBOS phones.

I don't know. Just seems like at the very least Chen might put a stop to these monstrous losses on hardware. That alone is enough to move the price up.

Z10STL100-4/10.2.1.1925

[JonCBK]

Cash flow was awful, It just look good in appearance.
-BlackBerry received most of the tax refund in q3, $696m. In fact, they used all the carryback and the last $170m are expected in q4. No more tax refund in the future.
-They had positive change in working capital of $1b. But It's an illusion, huge current liabilities in the Balance sheets. I expect a $1.2b negative change in working capital in the next 2 or 3 quarters. It could be more if Venezuela doesn't pay (150m).
-The layoffs are just starting, $475m in CORE are expected in the next 2 quarters.
-Purchase commitments are $1.5b. From that $500m are intangible assets that they are going to buy in the next two quarters, they said in the E.C. I expect $300m-$500m cash hit in canceling the other $1b commitments, unless sales of Zs and Qs jump unexpectedly.

So, BlackBerry is going to burn more than $2 billion in the next 2 or 3 quarters. If sales keep falling of a cliff they could easily run out of cash. They have $200m in "Assets held for sale", but I think they need the extra $250m convertible debt for some extra margin.

Well you certainly are pessimistic. I think the market was thinking they were going to go through even more cash than they went through. I can't imagine them not being able to slow expenses sufficiently so that they run out of cash in 2014. And that is even with terrible handset sales.

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[zee3p0]

His post wasn't pessimistic, it was facts. Facts that a lot of people around here seems to be dismissing because they are stunned by the bright light of the share price going up. There are 2 things you really have to balance here. One is the all time worst earnings report and performance from BlackBerry last quarter, and the second is the current share price action. Think about those 2 for a while and dismiss the thoughts of "hope" and your desire for the share price to go up. BlackBerry may still have intrinsic value but without revenue on the horizon it isn't looking good.

Posted via CB10

[pillswoj]

The other fact that people can't seem to grasp, this "amazing" rise in stock price is not even back to October levels. We were never able to figure out what caused the plunge to the ~$6 level so I am not about to get excited about it being at 7.50. The current levels are still well below breakup value.

This is the market having a small amount of confidence in Chen, if he is able to deliver in the coming quarters then we will see the stock truly rise.

[zee3p0]

This is the "market" filling a 23 million dollar sell order for a client from an company insider, by triggering an epic short squeeze and lining their pockets. The question is how do they make money the next few quarters on a stock for a company with a declining revenue forecast.

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