View Poll Results: Is this smart investing?

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  • Yes

    13 31.71%
  • No

    28 68.29%
09-26-14 02:12 PM
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  1. m1a1mg's Avatar
    OMG, one metric they've already used is one use per month. Which, of course, is ridiculous.
    12-12-13 02:23 PM
  2. OMGitworks's Avatar
    OMG, one metric they've already used is one use per month. Which, of course, is ridiculous.
    Making their metrics and numbers useless as predicted. They always move the goal posts to try to hit the "number" and then get hammered for it upon closer inspection. There is a huge credibility gap which has hurt them in the past. Perhpas Mr. Chen will change some of that.

    Unless he does, they will announce it and the real investors will laugh and the market will kill them for saying anyone who uses a product like BBM only 1x a month is an active user..... When that number on their ridiculous metric turns bad they will either redefine or stop giving that # in the ER.

    EDIT: So I read BBRY's definition. Understand that if someone downloaded BBM 87 days ago and used it once and hasn't used, AT ALL, it in the last 87 days, BBRY is going to report them as an "active user" for this quarter. I guess they can get 100M that way - but it is a complete BS number.

    FWIW Facebook reports Daily users as well - 728M per day. Twitter doesn't but has about 300M monthly active users. Instagram has about 80M active daily users.
    Last edited by OMGitworks; 12-12-13 at 02:44 PM.
    chr1sny and M65c02 like this.
    12-12-13 02:30 PM
  3. M65c02's Avatar
    Some mostly good questions/comments I answer below.

    It does reduce risk to purchase shares below book value:
    True enough on its face that it is (usually) less risky to purchase a share that has value/share greater than the price paid. But only if one is viewing a “true book value” and if on-going ops show an ability to make a profit. Examine BB financials and you can see that there isn’t much beyond the cash and whatever (fictional) value you might add to the patents and maybe BBM(X). For example, look at BB’s write down of a Billion dollars in inventory costs just in the past few months. So, eliminate almost everything from the BB balance sheet other than cash (and equivalents) less ST and LT debt. Then add a (liberal) billion for patents and another for discounted BBM(X) value. Any remaining assets can go toward employee and other shut-down costs: Inventory , plant and equipment, etc. is nominal relative to over 500mm shares and a $1 Billion senior note. So now what do you have: $4+ -/share?! best case s.t. future decline w/o earnings.

    Second, you are assuming a liquidation value for the (imaginary) book value only at time of your purchase. If you buy now in a co. like BB, however, you can trip yourself with the assumption that this value assumes that BB is being liquidated (today). Alternatively, BB has to be making a profit or at least contribution to free cash: It is doing neither and therefore book value (regardless of technique) declines daily. Therefore, today as things stand, BB continues to drain its assets (inc. cash) and, therefore, its book value falls daily. Further, Prem. obviously will not be content on selling the company for $6, nor could he get $6 for 300mm+ shares today but, remember, his recent deal leaves him first in line for the salvage. [Note: On the positive, he will fight like heck to first get his billion plus interest, then trim his BBRY equity losses by targeting a return to $8-10/share(?!?).]

    Everything has essentially infinite risk:
    No, you are a bit skewed in your understanding here. Essentially everything in the financial world has an element of risk but distinguish this from everything has infinite risk. (Versus in the physical world where certain laws of nature are absolute and, therefore, without risk.) BBRY was stated to have infinite risk (today) as it has chosen to continue operations despite a severe negative cash flow (and negative free cash) and without any plan that appears to be able to return it to profitability. If BB announced that it would liquidate tomorrow, I would remove the infinite risk tag from its share price (i.e., risk of going to zero) and substitute it with a reasonable evaluation of asset liquidation less senior secured and junior (secured/unsecured) debt. If announced today, I would think $3-4/share. [Note: Refer to June prognosis for BBRY to test $5/share range in early 2014 and, infinite, was still a bit of exaggeration to make a point.]

    Still generating revenue. Don't know where you are coming from saying it can’t?:
    Okay, perhaps you are taking this statement literally. BB, of course, is generating revenues but not revenue material to anticipate future earnings. It can boost revenues (maybe?) by nearly giving away phones, for example, but that isn’t generating any real revenue that will lead to current or future earnings. In general, BB revenues have been curbed approaching 50% from just over a year ago. More disturbing, of course, is that these revenues remain largely based on the obsolete legacy phones … and contrary even to BB’s planning. (This cuts to the need to be able to sell 20+mm BB10 phones at a reasonable price in order to stay in the hardware business.)

    "Its share price approaching $10, after flying to $200, was an indication of tremendous problems but $5-6 is nearing a death knell (even forgetting the financials)." I don't even understand what that means. Is that some sort of fear tactic? Share price doesn't dictate the performance of the business.:
    That’s okay, we’re here to clarify. True, share price doesn’t (usually) dictate performance of a business but if you read the indisputable statement as share price reflects the performance of BB over the past few years. Further, when you get into the internal machinations of a publicly traded company share price floats relatively free but there are a couple sticking points and clues of on-going corporate viability relative to share price: The $5/share for a stock in decline is the most notable. As for fear tactic: Absolutely and BB (today BB =Prem) is all too aware (this phenomena has nothing to do with me)!! Let me enlighten on an overview of this concept.

    The BBRY $200 to $10 being an indication of tremendous problems is hardly one of my more profound statements. I think that most anyone can grasp both the clarity and merit of that simple statement. But, there are two hidden meanings to this decline. First, there is the continuous negative trend that was/has been set . That is, there has been no stopping a BBRY decline since circa 2008. Sure, BB bought some time with its repeated promises, then repeated delays for intro of BB10. But when it became clear that there were no sales of Z10’s, then crystal clear when there was no surge in sales from the Q10 intro, the stock trimmed another 50% just in the past six months. In the middle of all this was the obvious, absolute need to sell/liquidate. Prem then supported the share price for another 2-3mths.

    [Note: All of this was forecast back in May, really even long before, and BBRY has followed to an absolute “T” the pattern of most declines that have otherwise occurred in the tech industry. The only exception is that I would have thought Prem would have completed the buyout although he probably has a better deal now with his senior secured debt: All the control with less than half the risk.]

    Now, some education here on the magic of $5/share: The listing requirements on the exchanges dictate certain restrictions relative to share price (e.g., financials and volume) and, otherwise, many institutions also place their own “red line” restrictions to what stocks can be purchased. (Other exchange rules may also kick-in with low share prices regarding, for example, shorting, options, etc.) One such standard places stocks under $5 as malum prohibitum. Far and away, any once established stock that strays under $5 is likely submerged to its liquidation end (thus signaling of a death knell). Sure, some do reverse splits and there have been notable bailouts by gov’t but if BB closes below $5 consistently for a period of a few months, it’s most certainly gone (s.t. Canadian govt charity?!). ALWAYS, ALWAYS flag stocks declining into this range (even before/without looking at financials)!!! Notwithstanding, Prem and any remaining institutions also understand this rule and that’s why there likely will be some extra buying coming in to keep BBRY from closing below $5 (at least on repeated occasion).

    BB's only value is in a few patents, BBM(X), and a nearly insignificant revenue flow from a few corporate/govt clients. (Any goodwill valuation that was once associated with the RIM/BB name has been nullified.)
    --Yeah a "few" patents. A revenue that is still 5 times that of other companies in the sector that the market is valuing at 10 times the market cap of BlackBerry. I agree there is no goodwill valuation being giving to the brand, this tells me there is a disconnect because of the 30,000 test servers that are being trialed. :
    Yes, the BBM(X) may be the one bright spot and only lasting legacy for BB. The legacy of BB can survive in some form, no argument there, and BBM(X) may be its only potential profit maker (and valuable asset in the end). Not sure whether BB has the muscle to control this market if it really does present an easy gold mine but thereinlies reinforcement for the almost certain sale of BB. [Note: This will/is talked about in many other posts … and will continue to be a topic of discussion favorable to BB.]

    Unless/until it can develop a plan to sell 20mm++ BB10 phones, it is on fast burn to becoming financial toast.:
    --There is no way you can make that projection without being an insider of the company. If anything going by the latest financials it looks like to break even before the scheduled cost cutting they would need to sell around 7 to 10 million units. But nice try pulling that 20 million out your ***.:
    You haven’t been keeping up with your reading: Time out, sure we can (And, BTW that’s an intro year BB10 #)! Do you think that a publicly reported company hasn’t revealed in general terms it’s (un)amortized development cost and structure around its flagship product for future survival?? It's all there in the 10Q's but don’t get too hung up on the need for 20mm, or 16, 30, or even 50mm. The point is that BB will come no where near close to breaking even, let alone posting any profit, in total and certainly not on its BB10 venture. Moreover, it hasn’t even generated free cash in the initial year of release of BB10. This means that every (BB10) phone sold today is contributing to a loss. Ugly…with a capital U.

    Frankly, I thought that the 20mm BB10 units/annum was quite old news and has never been challenged (except as being too low). This # was cited back in April, shortly after Z10 introduction as a minimal number required by the end of calendar 2013. The math is really easy but ponder this thought……and another pounded ad infinitum in posts over the past six months: BB10 represents 0% of the total market, and 0% of the smart phone market, with little prospect for growth. Actually, the number must be closer to 25-30mm but BB will be lucky to sell 15mm total (inc. Legacy) phones in fiscal 2014. Nope, no profits are to be found at 0% of the marketplace. [Note: One might argue with some merit that BB should retrench to its legacy phones but I have always assumed that BB has staked its future on BB10.]

    But Prem will fight tooth and nail to keep the price above $5.50. Sure, there might be an occasional 1/2-3/4pt spike with (dis)information and a poor (rather than horrible) quarterly earnings report but the price will again settle and slowly slide. (Cash is projected to run out in 2015 w/o a new revenue source/plan.)
    --Care to tell how premium will be manipulating the stock price keeping it above 5.50?

    Well I wish I knew all the manner but here is a general sample: Let's call it control rather than manipulate. Really no secrets here; it mirrors much of what RIM/BB has performed over the past several years, and certainly since January 2013. First, it is beneficial for one to understand the first rule and most valuable tool of the economist in public positions of setting policy is simply to spin the numbers in the most favorable light. So too in business, perception and can over-rule fact, at least in the short run. Certainly, Prem will continue to espouse whatever news of BB in the very best (illusory) light. He will carefully rebuild a perception of a dwindling of negative earnings into a projection of a longer range return to prosperity. This might eventually even include a posting of a couple quarters of very aggressive accounting that displays BB as having positive EPS. Of course, finding postive cash flow, moreover generation of positive free cash, is a little more difficult to manipulate. We should also see a few govt contracts awarded to BB in the midst of all this: It doesn’t take much of a sale at 0% mkt share to make it look as if BB10 or BBES10 is growing. But, in the end, BB will sell off some of its components and the remainder likely will be picked up by a big player. [Note: We speak of Prem as reflective of his entire staff and fund rather than personally.]

    If/when BBRY begins to fall under ~$6, and it’s on that cusp now, Prem has his institutions in line and BBRY partially boxed to assist. Further, there won't be any great push for new, material short players. His own traders can play the cat and mouse game to watch over the cue and, on occasion, push closing prices on strategic days up a few teenths/eighths. These trading tactics/favors, however, will not hold back a string of back-to-back qrtrlys that reflect a continued BB decline (nor the influence of a general market collapse). Still, Prem probably has the muscle to hold reasonably firm BB share prices around $5-6 for several months if he simply finds a plateau/bottom for BB losses.

    Answer this for me. Forget everything else and come up with a number that you think would be the revenue from all 30,000 test servers if they decide to stick with BlackBerry.
    Now that is the Billion dollar question, isn't it?!? Okay, you’re staking BB’s future (or value) and last stand on BBM(X) and I also have tended to agree with this scenario. I’ll have to ponder, however, a BBM(X) forecast of revenue users … much more difficult than BB10 smart phone forecasting in April. BUT one hundred million users that will generate revenues seems highly, highly generous and suspect after the general damage of recent months that BB did to its name. ... Suffice it to say again, that even should BB find salvation with BBM(X) it probably represents (or remains) only the key asset for valuation toward a future BB sale by Prem....not the return of BB as a future power house.
    Last edited by M65c02; 12-13-13 at 09:26 AM.
    chr1sny likes this.
    12-12-13 02:35 PM
  4. danprown's Avatar
    These are very good points.

    First, where is BES on the financials. I believe, based on a past ER call I can't recall exactly, that it is in "software." "Services" was specifically described as the consumer BIS fees carriers pay, which is pure gravy with amazing margins.

    Do you have any info that "services" includes BES?

    2. Potential: BBRY has never broken down BES revenue to my knowledge. But it is really a drop in the bucket. According to Gartner, the whole market "could" grow to 1.5 billion annually but is really crowded and BBRY is in the bottom quarter. There is simply no way in hell BES can do ~1.5 billion per quarter (current overall revenue) in that market.

    Also, I absolutely disregard these number of installs and test installs. I believe half of them are in India (based on the India's chief remarks that they have 14,000 installs in India earlier in the year) and when you count numbers like that (including test installs), and you deal with BBRY, it is more than likely there are S4BB-like outfits inflating the score.


    Nobody here has any idea what portions of the "service" revenue comes from where. Everybody is assuming it is coming from the consumer BES.

    Still, i have yet to read anywhere a number projection on revenue from BB10 enterprise service revenue. We are talking 30 thousand servers installed and rising 10 percent and up a quarter. What revenues can come from those customers is important here to determine future revenue.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 03:28 PM
  5. zee3p0's Avatar
    Making their metrics and numbers useless as predicted. They always move the goal posts to try to hit the "number" and then get hammered for it upon closer inspection. There is a huge credibility gap which has hurt them in the past. Perhpas Mr. Chen will change some of that.

    Unless he does, they will announce it and the real investors will laugh and the market will kill them for saying anyone who uses a product like BBM only 1x a month is an active user..... When that number on their ridiculous metric turns bad they will either redefine or stop giving that # in the ER.

    EDIT: So I read BBRY's definition. Understand that if someone downloaded BBM 87 days ago and used it once and hasn't used, AT ALL, it in the last 87 days, BBRY is going to report them as an "active user" for this quarter. I guess they can get 100M that way - but it is a complete BS number.

    FWIW Facebook reports Daily users as well - 728M per day. Twitter doesn't but has about 300M monthly active users. Instagram has about 80M active daily users.
    BlackBerry is using the same methods as twitter to get monthly active users. I would guess that it is pretty much standard.

    Monthly Active Users (MAUs).We define MAUs as Twitter users who logged in and accessed Twitter through our website, mobile website, desktop or mobile applications, SMS or registered third-party applications or websites in the 30-day period ending on the date of measurement

    Posted via CB10
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-12-13 04:47 PM
  6. zee3p0's Avatar
    And they stated 230 million monthly active users. With about 5% of that being spam from what they could tell by taking samples of accounts and analyzing

    Posted via CB10
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-12-13 04:51 PM
  7. m1a1mg's Avatar
    Then the Twitter metric is ridiculous as well.
    12-12-13 04:57 PM
  8. zee3p0's Avatar
    The market is valuing twitter at 137 dollars per monthly active user. BBM users are cheap, i wonder what price 80 million would get.

    Posted via CB10
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-12-13 04:59 PM
  9. zee3p0's Avatar
    Then the Twitter metric is ridiculous as well.
    You should create your own metric that works for you i guess.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 05:00 PM
  10. m1a1mg's Avatar
    Oops, Twitter also reports active daily users. 100 million. Instagram claims 75 million daily.

    Not sure I believe it, but it is a much better metric. Active monthly just seems too broad.
    12-12-13 05:02 PM
  11. M65c02's Avatar
    You can keep analyzing all you want. My uncle is a PhD, believe or not. You just told me you do the analytics, most people in this thread want to see facts and articles and evidence to believe any number or prediction. And you just gave me plenty. You can try and insult my family all you want .... I think it is a worthy investment. Call me crazy.
    Crazy!! Otech you leave yourself open to interpret matters as personal. For the most part, CBers are not posting comments that are intended to be personal in nature (or to affront someone on a personal basis). Now there are some exceptions but these people generally fade or aren't taken seriously. In general, you will note that many people have contributed quality posts to your thread.

    But just a hint for you here: You are far more effective in a debate if you don't introduce personal characteristics and especially recognize your key sources as a personal relation, let alone family member. You can present what you may have heard from such a person w/o describing them as a family member, best friend, or manager at work. When you describe them as family, for example, it cuts to their credibility or, at least, impartiality. Once you voluntarily introduce, it is equally ineffective to contend that somehow a comment going against a family member is somehow worse than against any other person. By doing such, you have only re-affirm a lack of impartiality as you expect readers to give more weight simply because he/she may be a family member/friend/etc. That doesn't work when a debate among strangers. That's okay, it's all part of the learning process and passing into adulthood while in college.

    Okay, now as for the BB fundamentals and/or numbers. "We've" posted these in the past. (You might want to review the forecasts going back into the spring and mid-summer. (This isn't rocket science, at least where BBRY is concerned.) Below is a wrap-up and short primer on the events of the past few months with key numbers to view for a company such as BB or a company in BB's current financial state. Some homework would be to look back on the past 3 BB10Qs, and past three RIM/BB annual reports taking special notice of the trends with those key financial concepts that I present below. (Also, I have named several companies in the tech industry that went under over the past 15 years: Read up on them and take special note of their respective "closing cycles" during their last 2-3 years.) You'll understand that BBRY today is a an investment for day-to-day trading and with a penny stock mentality. Absolutely nothing wrong with spinning the wheel so long as one understands the game they are playing. (BTW, you may well get a small spike in price so be ready and dump.)

    3 KEY COMPONENTS OF BLACKBERRY HEALTH
    Free Cash – Negative generation for past year (and cash eqv. balance down 30% in past year to $1.6B to $1.2B)
    Revs – 2013 vs. 2012 -- $2.9B to $1.6B and ~$900m to $400m in N.A., about a 50% decline in just 12 months.
    EPS – negative for last year preceded by five year trend of decline. (-$2.41/s for last six months)
    Gross Mkt % – 0% for BB10 “smart phones” or now down to 1% when including legacy phones
    Share Price – High ~$200 and low of ~$5.75/share less than a week ago: a 97+% decline
    Institutional Holdings Stability and Share Volume—All in decline with volume ~half of ave 5yrs.

    PROJECTIONS posted months ago in CB –
    May 2013 – Stock collapse to under $10 without 20mm projected sales of Z/Q10 by calendar year end or a bona fide buyout by the end of summer. Buy-out value no greater than $10 but realistic book value trending under $8 a/o early June and assuming the prediction of only 2-3mm BB10 unit sales.
    June 28, 2013 – Collapse of stock to under $5 and concurrent with buy-out early 2014 unless Q10 sales can revive BB10 prospects by selling 2mm in July. Blackberry must seek immediate sale and $8-10/share is probably realistic.
    August 23, 2013—Blackberry made an initial offer for $9 to $9.50 s.t. usual due diligence and good faith. If this falls through, BB shares will immediately drop to $6-7 range and test $5 by early 2014 (back on the BB forecast w/o sale). Abysmal quarterly reports follow but the share price is continued buffeted by Prem’s offer.
    October 2013—Offer collapses and share price immediately drops to $6-7 range, just as forecast. So, here again is exactly as happens over and over and over in this (and similar) industry sectors.

    SO, forget the voodoo technical trading platforms when a company doesn’t have any fundamental foundation. Prem will fight like “heck” to keep BBRY above $5 because, as mentioned, this is a pricing death knell for a Co. of this type. Be aware, consistently closing below $5 will be the last step for BBRY to be delisted, liquidate/sell or, possibly, to perform a reverse split. So, Prem might be able to work some magic to forego such a decline for a couple of quarters but he’ll still need a miracle plan or to sell this baby (that he ostensibly controls) off in the (not too) long run.
    Last edited by M65c02; 12-12-13 at 05:27 PM.
    chr1sny and techvisor like this.
    12-12-13 05:16 PM
  12. OMGitworks's Avatar
    The market is valuing twitter at 137 dollars per monthly active user. BBM users are cheap, i wonder what price 80 million would get.

    Posted via CB10
    I really don't want to demean any demographic, but most of the BBM users are not conducive to being monetized as easily as the Twitter universe.

    I did point out Twitters metric and FB for comparison as to how they report. Remember TWTR just went public, once they endure an ER conference call beat down or two for the metric, want to bet they also go to the FB daily user reporting?
    12-12-13 07:52 PM
  13. OMGitworks's Avatar
    You should create your own metric that works for you i guess.

    Posted via CB10
    It's called a daily user and lots of companies use it
    12-12-13 07:53 PM
  14. zee3p0's Avatar
    It's called a daily user and lots of companies use it
    What about hourly

    Posted via CB10
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-12-13 08:44 PM
  15. Otech#CB's Avatar
    What about hourly

    Posted via CB10
    Yea, because I'm constantly connected to BBM 24/7 and if I'm up, then I'm BBMing. But i'm not constantly tweeting, I'm not on FB as much, and I'm definitely not using whatsapp as much. And allt he contacts are there. I just see BBM as a better way of communicating on the fly. So true active users are those who use the app 2-3 times a day at the minimum. No one is pming on twitter, that services is almost useless. Twitter is just a feed...I don't think we need to compared BBM to that to show its value as a service. Anyone who uses BBM values. Obviously if you downloaded the app and didn't have any friends for a while you probably uninstalled or haven't used it, but that's not the same for everyone and for the people who downloaded it after the 1 or 2 weeks of its release. BBM needs to be compared to Whatsapp. And Whatsapp still doesn't generate revenue like anyone wants them to generate so don't try to defend it or anything. Currently instagram(not 100%), snapchat, whatsapp, and kik messenger are apps that are seen as competitors, and they have yet to generate revenue.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 11:31 PM
  16. tinochiko's Avatar
    Making their metrics and numbers useless as predicted. They always move the goal posts to try to hit the "number" and then get hammered for it upon closer inspection. There is a huge credibility gap which has hurt them in the past. Perhpas Mr. Chen will change some of that.

    Unless he does, they will announce it and the real investors will laugh and the market will kill them for saying anyone who uses a product like BBM only 1x a month is an active user..... When that number on their ridiculous metric turns bad they will either redefine or stop giving that # in the ER.

    EDIT: So I read BBRY's definition. Understand that if someone downloaded BBM 87 days ago and used it once and hasn't used, AT ALL, it in the last 87 days, BBRY is going to report them as an "active user" for this quarter. I guess they can get 100M that way - but it is a complete BS number.

    FWIW Facebook reports Daily users as well - 728M per day. Twitter doesn't but has about 300M monthly active users. Instagram has about 80M active daily users.
    How is it BS? If they tell you how they are getting the numbers i.e telling you their definition, which still no one has said where they are getting this definition from please I would like to know,

    What would be BS would be if that's the way they do it but they didn't actually say how they defined an 'active' user, then people would be comparing across other fb/twitter with data that isn't the same

    I don't disagree that they should change the way they do it, but it's not BS

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    12-13-13 02:36 AM
  17. OMGitworks's Avatar
    How is it BS? If they tell you how they are getting the numbers i.e telling you their definition, which still no one has said where they are getting this definition from please I would like to know,

    What would be BS would be if that's the way they do it but they didn't actually say how they defined an 'active' user, then people would be comparing across other fb/twitter with data that isn't the same

    I don't disagree that they should change the way they do it, but it's not BS

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    Fair enough, but if I down loaded xBBM when it first came out. Used it for 2 days, sent 4 messages and haven't used it since. Am I really an active user. How about an average monthly user. For a product they expect you to use everyday, they should report daily users. It is the best way to measure it and Wall St will expect to know this metric.
    12-13-13 05:45 AM
  18. m1a1mg's Avatar
    What about hourly

    Posted via CB10
    For someone who usually posts good stuff, this is very silly.
    12-13-13 06:50 AM
  19. OMGitworks's Avatar
    How is it BS? If they tell you how they are getting the numbers i.e telling you their definition, which still no one has said where they are getting this definition from please I would like to know,

    What would be BS would be if that's the way they do it but they didn't actually say how they defined an 'active' user, then people would be comparing across other fb/twitter with data that isn't the same

    I don't disagree that they should change the way they do it, but it's not BS

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    From BBRY Press Release

    *Monthly active users are defined as BBM customers who use the BBM service within a 30-day period.
    tinochiko likes this.
    12-13-13 07:34 AM
  20. zee3p0's Avatar
    Maybe, i don't know what advertisers use to make a decision on where they put their money. Thats what its all about, getting revenue from advertising. Whatsapp gives out numbers but they don't tell you how they come up with them.


    About BBM
    BBM has more than 60 million monthly active customers, with more than 51 million people using BBM an average of 90 minutes per day. BBM customers collectively send and receive more than 10 billion messages each day, nearly twice as many messages per user per day as compared to other mobile messaging apps. Almost half of BBM messages are read within 20 seconds of being received; indicating how truly engaged BBM customers are.

    That statement is from BlackBerry on around launch day. Thats pretty decent disclosure i think. If you want to know a metric of user engagement, messages per day and time of use is pretty nice.

    I think MAU is a good way to measure because some people aren't daily users.

    Popular mobile messaging app WhatsApp is on fire, apparently. Today, the company shared that it had hit a new daily record with 4 billion outbound messages sent, and 6 billion messages received.

    That was in august. That is what whatsapp tells us

    Posted via CB10
    OMGitworks and Otech#CB like this.
    12-13-13 07:44 AM
  21. tinochiko's Avatar
    http://www.cio.co.uk/blogs/technolog...th-blackberry/

    Aside from perhaps an over pumping of Chen definitely turning the company around..

    Analyse this

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    12-13-13 09:49 AM
  22. M65c02's Avatar
    Maybe, i don't know what advertisers use to make a decision on where they put their money. Thats what its all about, getting revenue from advertising. Whatsapp gives out numbers but they don't tell you how they come up with them.

    About BBM: BBM has more than 60 million monthly active customers, with more than 51 million people using BBM an average of 90 minutes per day. BBM customers collectively send and receive more than 10 billion messages each day, nearly twice as many messages per user per day as compared to other mobile messaging apps. Almost half of BBM messages are read within 20 seconds of being received; indicating how truly engaged BBM customers are.

    That statement is from BlackBerry on around launch day. Thats pretty decent disclosure i think. If you want to know a metric of user engagement, messages per day and time of use is pretty nice.

    I think MAU is a good way to measure because some people aren't daily users.

    Popular mobile messaging app WhatsApp is on fire, apparently. Today, the company shared that it had hit a new daily record with 4 billion outbound messages sent, and 6 billion messages received.

    That was in august. That is what whatsapp tells us
    Okay, so now we all agree that the future of BB has been whittled to BBM.

    Most of the observations about recording of numbers/usage are correct....dicey and optimistic estimates by all cos. involved: The game is to appear the best, or fastest growing, or latest trend. Then the investment bankers can hype a sale of equity onto the public. A company then, at least, has some working capital and time to find a way to make revenues, and ultimately turn a profit. Unlike the upstarts, however, BB is not in a position to raise money in the capital markets through a new equity issue. Therefore, BB may soon find itself in need to find a manner to monetize BBM on a shoestring if it drains its $2.5+B at the same rate as the near past.

    I find the 51mm, as bona fide current users of BBM, another highly suspect BB number given that BB may have as few as 50-60mm "operational" phones in circulation today. Now, yes, BBM has been open to other platforms for a short period so this number should have/has grown (so maybe 50mm currently hold a BBM log-on). This aside, ....

    Yes, BBM may well be the asset being readied to sell or spin in contemplation of laying the rest of BB to bed when the stock settles under $5.

    Posted via CB10
    12-13-13 09:52 AM
  23. tinochiko's Avatar
    Okay, so now we all agree that the future of BB has been whittled to BBM.

    The observations about recording of numbers/usage are mostly correct: The game is to appear the best, or fastest growing, or latest trend. Then the investment bankers can hype a sale of equity onto the public. The company then, at least, has some working capital and time to find a way to turn revenues, and ultimately a profit. Unlike the upstarts, BB is not in a position to raise money in the capital markets through an new equity issue. Therefore, BB may soon find that it must monetize BBM on a shoestring if it drains its $2.5+B at the same rate as the near past.

    I find the 51mm, as bona fide current users of BBM, another highly suspect BB number given that they may only have 50-60mm "useable" phones in circulation today. Now, yes, BBM has been open to other platforms for a short period so this number should have/has grown (so maybe 50mm currently hold a BBM log-on). This aside, ....

    Yes, this may well be the asset being readied to sell or spin in contemplation of laying the rest of BB to bed when the stock settles under $5.

    Posted via CB10
    I disagree, I've posted various articles and sayed consistanyly and have been supporting in saying BlackBerry has a very strong hardware potential, just lacking marketing reducing BlackBerry to bbm is the work of those who aren't seeing blackberry as it is and are just looking at short term profits, I was talking to a friend who has an iPhone today and he agrees that Blackberry represents everything someone would want in terms of getting things done, but he sees that society doesn't want to get things done as a majority,

    They want class, recognition uniformity, things that they shouldn't if they want to.get things done,..

    So no, BlackBerry has a lot more than BBM, BBM is just a bonus,

    Raise money for what? Its not about raising money, they need to start using it in the right way, that's what Chen is there for..

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-13-13 10:02 AM
  24. zee3p0's Avatar
    Okay, so now we all agree that the future of BB has been whittled to BBM.

    Most of the observations about recording of numbers/usage are correct....dicey and optimistic estimates by all cos. involved: The game is to appear the best, or fastest growing, or latest trend. Then the investment bankers can hype a sale of equity onto the public. A company then, at least, has some working capital and time to find a way to make revenues, and ultimately turn a profit. Unlike the upstarts, however, BB is not in a position to raise money in the capital markets through a new equity issue. Therefore, BB may soon find itself in need to find a manner to monetize BBM on a shoestring if it drains its $2.5+B at the same rate as the near past.

    I find the 51mm, as bona fide current users of BBM, another highly suspect BB number given that BB may have as few as 50-60mm "operational" phones in circulation today. Now, yes, BBM has been open to other platforms for a short period so this number should have/has grown (so maybe 50mm currently hold a BBM log-on). This aside, ....

    Yes, BBM may well be the asset being readied to sell or spin in contemplation of laying the rest of BB to bed when the stock settles under $5.

    Posted via CB10
    The future of BlackBerry (if there is one) is going to be MDM, M2M and BES10 services.
    Could it all get sold, shure i thought it was going to a month ago. Its just going to take too long to get any revenue from bbm, the whole social messaging business is in a huge bubble right now anyways.

    Your end comments sounds like you are saying that the QNX softwares, security technology and servers business are worthless.
    Those would be some vastly misguided opinions. If you are saying all together within the BlackBerry Business model there is small hope for their expansion and monetization there would be some validity to that comment.

    Posted via CB10
    tinochiko and Otech#CB like this.
    12-13-13 10:33 AM
  25. Otech#CB's Avatar
    It would be a stupid move to completely drop the smartphone business just to focus on software. They can do both, have great software, and have great hardware. It's not a give or take situation. As Tino said, a big part of it is marketing. Without marketing you can't get the sales you want. And without getting the sales that you want, people who use the stockmarket to decide if the company is good, will not see it as a potential success.

    Posted via CB10
    12-14-13 12:50 PM
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