View Poll Results: Is this smart investing?

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  • Yes

    13 31.71%
  • No

    28 68.29%
09-26-14 03:12 PM
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  1. zee3p0's Avatar
    [QUOTE=M65c02;9691341]I think that you need a couple more courses in risk assessment to learn how to perform a proper valuation. One does not reduce risk by purchasing a low priced stock, per se. Indeed, BB has near infinite risk today (relative to upside in share price) as it can generate none of either revenues, earnings, or free cash nor can it sell its smart phones and it has been purged from most serious institutional trading. Its share price approaching $10, after flying to $200, was an indication of tremendous problems but $5-6 is nearing a death knell (even forgetting the financials). BB's only value is in a few patents, BBM(X), and a nearly insignificant revenue flow from a few corporate/govt clients. (Any goodwill valuation that was once associated with the RIM/BB name has been nullified.)

    Unless/until it can develop a plan to sell 20mm++ BB10 phones, it is on fast burn to becoming financial toast. Read the financials of BB and/or filter and read past posts in CB: This has been stated since, well really beginning four years ago, but with more forte since May. The fall of RIM/BB is in virtual lockstep with that of many larger tech giants than BB ever was. Now the institutions have abandoned, the hedge funds are ignoring, and this is a pure speculative/payback play for the few remaining big boys. Prem is not in this to rebuild BB; he only sees some value in manipulating the assets to cut his losses.

    To another comment of yours relative to any investment I might have: To the contrary, if I was experienced I would have pulled out several years ago, sold short, sold calls, or bought puts. Today I would simply be day-trading blocks of 10,000 for the eighths and teenths. But, no, no absolutely no investment here: Otech you are late to this game...I do the forecasts for BB and projected and published predictions of drops to $9 (with a sale) but with a true valuation of $6-7 and a re-pricing thereto if Prem's sale fell through. With no cogent future plan, cash bleeding will push BB to test under the critical $5/share in early 2014 (with 25% of that value tied to a bloated market). But Prem will fight tooth and nail to keep the price above $5.50. Sure, there might be an occasional 1/2-3/4pt spike with (dis)information and a poor (rather than horrible) quarterly earnings report but the price will again settle and slowly slide. (Cash is projected to run out in 2015 w/o a new revenue source/plan.)

    Therefore, I'm here for the technical (phone) side and due to my long-term commitment to BB as a user. CB isn't an investment site, per se, yet so many posters obviously base all their comments on emotion borne of their (most often undisclosed) share ownership rather than looking at BB/industry fundamentals and/or applying a touch of logic. ... I deal in facts not persuasive fiction or simply wishful thinking. A salesman will tell you that you are beautiful when you are ugly but take your money and move on: A technician will tell you that you where you are ugly but tell you the best manner to fix it. SO, "Be careful not to ___ where you sleep." ... such sage advice.
    With just a few edits [in brackets above], well said by a few other CBers too.


    It does reduce risk to purchase shares below book value.

    Everything has essentialy infinite risk.

    Still generating revenue. Don't know where you are coming from saying it cant?

    " Its share price approaching $10, after flying to $200, was an indication of tremendous problems but $5-6 is nearing a death knell (even forgetting the financials)"

    I don't even understand what that means. Is that some sort of fear tactic? Share price doesn't dictate the performance of the business.

    BB's only value is in a few patents, BBM(X), and a nearly insignificant revenue flow from a few corporate/govt clients. (Any goodwill valuation that was once associated with the RIM/BB name has been nullified.)

    Yeah a "few" patents. A revenue that is still 5 times that of other companies in the sector that the market is valuing at 10 times the market cap of BlackBerry. I agree there is no goodwill valuation being giving to the brand, this tells me there is a disconnect because of the 30 000 test servers that are being trialed.

    Unless/until it can develop a plan to sell 20mm++ BB10 phones, it is on fast burn to becoming financial toast

    There is no way you can make that projection without being an insider of the company. If anything going by the latest financials it looks like to break even before the scheduled cost cutting they would need to sell around 7 to 10 million units. But nice try pulling that 20 million out your ***.

    But Prem will fight tooth and nail to keep the price above $5.50. Sure, there might be an occasional 1/2-3/4pt spike with (dis)information and a poor (rather than horrible) quarterly earnings report but the price will again settle and slowly slide. (Cash is projected to run out in 2015 w/o a new revenue source/plan.)

    Care to tell how prem will be manipulating the stock price keeping it above 5.50?

    Answer this for me. Forget everything else and come up with a number that you think would be the revenue from all 30 000 test servers if they decide to stick with BlackBerry.

    Posted via CB10
    12-11-13 05:07 PM
  2. tinochiko's Avatar
    You should stop moving the goal posts. M1's original inquiry was whether the numbers of active BBM users were released by any official source. I don't think anyone other than you cares whether the numbers come from the BBM team or BBRY (assuming there's even a difference).

    Active user data as opposed to just download numbers is the relevant inquiry. So far you haven't been able to provide any accurate or reliable information on the current number of active users. I think that's what M1 was interested in seeing.

    Your comments about "if only you evaluated and broke down negative data about BlackBerry with as much effort as you do the positive" are not particularly compelling when the "positive" news sources (e.g., seekingalpha articles) are of dubious quality and exhibit lazy thinking.
    If you bothereed to read the articles you would see that the numbers are of active users..

    Tell me how do you define an active user for bbm? When they haven't responded to messages in a day? A week? A year? When you try and send messages and it turns into a red cross?

    Bbm isn't like Facebook or Twitter with a high percentage of 'dead' users.. so you're arguing an irrelevant point

    If.youre not satisfied with the data shown, show me which data you see which leads you to believe there are loads of 'dead' users on bbm?

    I haven't moved the goal post anywhere, you're just shooting wide..because you see your own goal post..


    Lol wow, and all the negative articles that people were paid to write provide such clear and consise information right?

    If you're so eager to judge the articles how about writing your own and seeing what people say about that?

    I wasnt saying it to be compelling, I was saying it because it's true, so many negative articles on Blackberry are biased, based on little evidence and yet you eat them up and claim to be a 'realist' you're as if not more passionate about your dislike of BBRY as you claim others are passionate about the love of it..





    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    12-11-13 05:11 PM
  3. chr1sny's Avatar
    Didn't say I was going to provide them, but I'm happy to, since it seems you can only find negative data



    BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): BlackBerry's BBM Is A Threat To Facebook And Twitter, Here's Why - Seeking Alpha


    BBM now hosts 80 million active users

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    Where are numbers from BB? One source, Seeking Alpha, guessed. The other, Phone Arena, took numbers of active users from May and added the number of downloads when BBM was first released cross platform, and made up the number 80 million.

    Again, where are the number of active users from BB? I ask because you posted this:



    So, are you making sh** up or do you have an actual source?
    If you bothereed to read the articles you would see that the numbers are of active users..

    Tell me how do you define an active user for bbm? When they haven't responded to messages in a day? A week? A year? When you try and send messages and it turns into a red cross?

    Bbm isn't like Facebook or Twitter with a high percentage of 'dead' users.. so you're arguing an irrelevant point

    If.youre not satisfied with the data shown, show me which data you see which leads you to believe there are loads of 'dead' users on bbm?

    I haven't moved the goal post anywhere, you're just shooting wide..because you see your own goal post..

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    Are you purposefully being obtuse?

    The articles you cited DO NOT report the number of active users in any meaningful way. You acknowledge yourself that there isn't a consensus on the methodology used to determine the number of BBM's active users. Further, you have yet to address M1's objections to the sources you cite.

    You're the one who initially claimed that these numbers were available. You then posted articles as support for your claim that have been debunked. Your only response has been to whine about how harsh the "realists" are. I'm not trying to treat you harshly but what do you expect when you make specious claims and fail to back them up.
    12-11-13 05:21 PM
  4. zee3p0's Avatar
    Here are the numbers from BlackBerry.

    http://blogs.blackberry.com/2013/10/bbm-first-week/

    Or am i missing something because i didn't feel like reading through all the ******** sorry.

    Posted via CB10
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-11-13 05:39 PM
  5. chr1sny's Avatar
    Here are the numbers from BlackBerry.

    BBM Grows to 80 Million users in first week on Android and iPhone | Inside BlackBerry

    Or am i missing something because i didn't feel like reading through all the ******** sorry.

    Posted via CB10
    We all know that BBRY officially released a statement months ago when BBM first went cross-platform, but Tino's statement made it seems as if the number of active users is available on an ongoing basis. That type of data would be the most useful in assessing BBM's potential.
    12-11-13 05:46 PM
  6. zee3p0's Avatar
    I bet they will tell us next week, and my guess is over 100 million.

    O shouldn't have said that. Too late now cant take it back

    Posted via CB10
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-11-13 05:50 PM
  7. Otech#CB's Avatar
    We all know that BBRY officially released a statement months ago when BBM first went cross-platform, but Tino's statement made it seems as if the number of active users is available on an ongoing basis. That type of data would be the most useful in assessing BBM's potential.
    You don't seem to use BBM on your phone much. Those numbers might be off by 1 million at the most, but it's still a high as number. You act like it went down to 1 million after the first week, or the second. You just can't believe it. Please come to reality and don't ignore all the positive because we don't ignore all the negative things that you say and don't back up. Some of it should be highly disregarded at times.

    Posted via CB10
    12-11-13 05:50 PM
  8. Otech#CB's Avatar
    I bet they will tell us next week, and my guess is over 100 million.

    O shouldn't have said that. Too late now cant take it back

    Posted via CB10
    Lol! I hope zee3p0. It's definitely more than what we first heard, that's my non-biased opinion based on the user experience BBM provides, and what it plans to provide going forward. It deserves that 100 million though. That'll get these non-believers to keep there assumptions and false information to themselves.

    Posted via CB10
    12-11-13 05:52 PM
  9. tinochiko's Avatar
    Are you purposefully being obtuse?

    The articles you cited DO NOT report the number of active users in any meaningful way. You acknowledge yourself that there isn't a consensus on the methodology used to determine the number of BBM's active users. Further, you have yet to address M1's objections to the sources you cite.

    You're the one who initially claimed that these numbers were available. You then posted articles as support for your claim that have been debunked. Your only response has been to whine about how harsh the "realists" are. I'm not trying to treat you harshly but what do you expect when you make specious claims and fail to back them up.
    I stated that BBM had released details of active users, what I've just explained is that you're using a definition of active users that I wasn't expressing when I said active users, like you just said the numbers aren't 'meaningful' to you, they mean a whole lot to other people though..

    I stated there was a number of active users in response to the claim that active users had declined, at least I have some data to back up my statement whereas there is nothing substantial to back up the alternative

    Where have I whined?

    Treat me as harshly as you wish, I don't take any offence to it no need to apologise, if I say something that's wrong i deserve to be called up on it, otherwise everyone could talk rubbish as facts which is what a lot of people have been doing. So I thank you for your harshness

    From my perspective, I've backed up what I said to some extent, as I just said also, the wording in the article uses the words 'active users' as well as downloads, a post which you have yet to deal your awesome harshness on..

    Just for reference I'll post some again

    http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/11/b...-active-users/

    Lol if you cant be bothered with the article just look at the url,

    So your only defense here is to examine how the sires or its sources came to determine/differentiate between active users and 'downloads'

    Note that I didn't say there wasn't a way objectively, just that I didn't know of a way.. there are many people cleverer than me who could find a way to do it so it's possible..

    http://www.itpro.co.uk/mobile/19964/...ne-gets-update

    This one if you do consider reading actually has a quote from the head of BBM saying he will concentrate on active users rather than downloads

    Actually I have already addressed the previous objections to my article, multiple times some people just aren't willing to accept the addressions.. if that's the right word


    Also the fact that you question whether information from BBM and information from BlackBerry can be considered separate or the same, adds to my growing theory that the people who take your view don't have the 'blackberry' vision, which mind, isn't meant in a vile way, just saying that you don't see BlackBerry for what it is, past the facts and figures into the hear of the company and maybe that's got nothing to do with investment, but i really doubt that investing emotional is a practical thing, I think it works as a theory bit is something that can't really be related, there's always some element of emotion especially when dealing with the unknown., which with the stock market there always is, for those who don't insider trade that is

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-11-13 05:55 PM
  10. m1a1mg's Avatar
    chr1sny, have fun, these two aren't worth the effort.

    Sent from my SCH-I535 using CB Forums mobile app
    tinochiko likes this.
    12-11-13 06:13 PM
  11. chr1sny's Avatar
    I bet they will tell us next week, and my guess is over 100 million.

    O shouldn't have said that. Too late now cant take it back

    Posted via CB10
    That would be intriguing. That would likely mean that the majority of the initial cross-BBM downloaders and that the users who downloaded the app since then have remained active. That would be good news and just releasing such information would signal a departure from BBRY's normally cagey/evasive disclosure policies (e.g., releasing BES "testing" numbers).
    12-11-13 06:17 PM
  12. chr1sny's Avatar
    chr1sny, have fun, these two aren't worth the effort.

    Sent from my SCH-I535 using CB Forums mobile app
    I always get sucked into these exchanges during my downtime surfing.
    12-11-13 06:18 PM
  13. tinochiko's Avatar
    chr1sny, have fun, these two aren't worth the effort.

    Sent from my SCH-I535 using CB Forums mobile app
    Funny, was thinking the same about you, guess we're not so different after all

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-11-13 06:22 PM
  14. zee3p0's Avatar
    Well, so they had 80 million active users after launch on October 29th.

    BlackBerry is recognizing an active user as a user that sends a least one message in a 30 day period.

    So since then, all those users would have only had to send 2 messages, or one per 30 days about to keep the 80 million. I don't think that is a far shot.

    How many downloads since October 29th is a realistic figure I wonder? Free app. I don't know is another 10 million a lot? Another 20 million.
    I cant see it being less than 80 because of the way it's accounted for. I'm betting BlackBerry is going to want to be telling us the number, if not im assuming it's gone down.

    Posted via CB10
    12-11-13 06:58 PM
  15. m1a1mg's Avatar
    I bet they will tell us next week, and my guess is over 100 million.

    O shouldn't have said that. Too late now cant take it back

    Posted via CB10
    Your numbers may very well turn out to be true. However, the additional 20 million came when BBM first was available for download, so we will have to see.

    Further, that info is from 10.29.2013 and today is 12.11.2013. People like me are curious as to how many people stayed with xBBM.
    12-11-13 07:38 PM
  16. garnok's Avatar
    Your numbers may very well turn out to be true. However, the additional 20 million came when BBM first was available for download, so we will have to see.

    Further, that info is from 10.29.2013 and today is 12.11.2013. People like me are curious as to how many people stayed with xBBM.
    while i'm sure BB10 phone sales will keep declining...

    but for BBMx i think it will be a huge success...people in emerging market are craze about BBM...especially in indonesia and india. in indonesia people bought 15 million smartphone last 3 quarter 60% are android phone...most already familiar with BBM than any other IM
    12-11-13 09:00 PM
  17. M65c02's Avatar
    Where are numbers from BB? One source, Seeking Alpha, guessed. The other, Phone Arena, took numbers of active users from May and added the number of downloads when BBM was first released cross platform, and made up the number 80 million.
    Again, where are the number of active users from BB? I ask because you posted this:
    So, are you making sh** up or do you have an actual source?
    Yes, a source would be nice and the Wall Street gods only know that an actual source, not disinformation from Chicken Little, will be required for any positive (long-term) tone for BBRY from here on out.
    But m1a1mg already posted why the articles you cited don't say what you want them to say.[/QUOTE]True![QUOTE=tinochiko;9691721]No, he cited why they don't say what he wants them to say. They say what I wanted to say perfectly well, those figures were released by the BBM team… And I repeat, if only you evaluated and broke down negative data about BlackBerry with as much effort as you do the positive... [Edited: blah, blah]

    We can keep going back and forth for months, someone citing the current BlackBerry stock value, someone showing someone else how uneducated they are, bringing in the big names. At the end of the day, it seems we're all too stubborn to be open to data, or we like to call ourselves open then shoot down whatever the opposition says, I'm sure if a year from now BlackBerry is doing well, instead of taking back comments, you'll just justify how when they were low BlackBerry was not a good investment and in time it changed to be etc, etc whereas that's the future some of us, however few, see now. [Note: No, No, No, wrong: there's only been one side to this discussion for years. BB has shed 98% of its mkt cap over the past several years and 50% just in the past six months!! (Heck, BBRY shed ~10% temporarily from the time of your post until I read and could answer.) ... "Let’s buy because BB is at an all-time low." has no basis in financial logic.]

    Obviously I'm not disregarding the fact that a year from now we could have a broken down BlackBerry that's had to go into administration or something or be bought for $2billion, I would also then say at the time I believed BlackBerry would turn things around and as time went on it became clear they couldn't, although personally I believe this is quite unlikely. [Note: Now you're all over the map and appear to admit to your own talk as gibberish]

    Every day I get a stronger sense that Blackberry can't just go down, that things could be a whole lot worse, as they could be better, but I take what I get and hope for the best, which is the way some people invest... [Note: This sounds like some kind of cult comment or just emotional mumbo-jumbo.] I realised I'm waffling-on about nothing here but I'm just realising that all my efforts trying to get the message across to you that it's not [the] “I'll go down with this ship” blackberry fan extremism only [type] who would consider an investment in BlackBerry now, but rather that it just makes sense [to invest in BB]. [Note: more feel it in my bones blah, blah, blah]
    Tino, you’re also late to the party here. I set aside comments both above in brackets (and thru highlighting some of your comments) as well as below.

    The months and months, actually go back years and years now to the BBRY $200/share price. Notwithstanding nearly everyone left the BB planet (investment speaking and otherwise) after late June and the few stubborn remaining left in September after Qtrlys. Blackberry did go on the block officially in August (although they’d been vulnerable for some time prior). And, FYI, BB was ostensibly sold to Prem as now having a super controlling interest (he got his cake and can eat it too)!!! Understand that there is no concerted effort to save BB as we know it; only to spruce up BB for the salvage/bail value it might bring to Prem (and incidentally to other shareholders).

    Indeed, it sounds to me like you are very much disregarding the fact that a year from now BB might be sold … not even I, however, would suggest for as little as $2B. Why would you try to support your position with such vehemence then tear yourself down with such a caveat? Stick to your guns even if there are no bullets. Then you bring back support with your inspirational “stronger sense that BB Just can’t go down” and that things could be a “whole lot worse.”

    You do realize that BB has shed $100B in market value since its cap and that it accounts for 0% (rounded) of the total market for smart phones….doesn’t get much worse short of forced liquidation. Yes, you said it best: “I realize that I’m waffling-on about nothing here…have been waffling on about nothing here. Just a vague sense of emotional mumble playing a game with the odds, as it stands today, of a game of baccarat. Now, to help save face, what you are expressing is a low probability of success rebuild of a dead company and a low probability speculative BBRY play with a penny stock trading mentality. As often previously cited, nothing wrong with this attitude but step away from the emotion and respect BBRY’s 98% strip/plunge for what it is. Then, if you must invest, set sell stops to profit from (errant and temporary) spikes/troughs in BBRY pricing.
    You should stop moving the goal posts. M1's original inquiry was whether the numbers of active BBM users were released by any official source. I don't think anyone other than you cares whether the numbers come from the BBM team or BBRY (assuming there's even a difference).
    Active user data as opposed to just download numbers is the relevant inquiry. So far you haven't been able to provide any accurate or reliable information on the current number of active users. I think that's what M1 was interested in seeing.

    Your comments about "if only you evaluated and broke down negative data about BlackBerry with as much effort as you do the positive" are not particularly compelling when the "positive" news sources (e.g., seekingalpha articles) are of dubious quality and exhibit lazy thinking.
    This sounds like a battlefield general that’s telling the troops “fight to the end” while he has a backdoor exit neatly tucked away. When you’ve lost twenty successive battles and already made a treaty to divide up half the land (cf., Prem’s Billion Note), good tidings and cheerful comments are no longer enough. Chicken Little has spoken once too often and bilked the trust of BB nation (and other investors) one too many times. Now, as BB has lost this privilege of trust, only the fools will listen to positive news without concrete evidence. (Well, actually we said that back at the end of June … so nothing new here … just a few young new entrants and a few facebook type postings to match.)

    In other words, today, a positive tone is non-sensical for BB without concrete facts. It is a penny stock, day-trading mentality that listens to news on BBRY with the same ear it did 3-4 years ago. BTW, nothing wrong with this attitude, per se, so long as you are aware of the arena that you’ve entered and not become foolish with emotion over a pure gambling play against all historical and statistical logic. Again, set the sell limits/stops and play with BBRY on day-to-day penny stock mentality basis and roll with the narrow band of peaks and troughs but don't delude yourself (nor try to others) that the basic fundamentals for BB in Dec 2013 point to anything remotely positive to BB functioning as a standalone Hardware/Software smart phone vendor in the (long term) future.
    Last edited by M65c02; 12-12-13 at 05:28 PM.
    chr1sny likes this.
    12-12-13 11:47 AM
  18. tinochiko's Avatar
    Well, so they had 80 million active users after launch on October 29th.

    BlackBerry is recognizing an active user as a user that sends a least one message in a 30 day period.

    So since then, all those users would have only had to send 2 messages, or one per 30 days about to keep the 80 million. I don't think that is a far shot.

    How many downloads since October 29th is a realistic figure I wonder? Free app. I don't know is another 10 million a lot? Another 20 million.
    I cant see it being less than 80 because of the way it's accounted for. I'm betting BlackBerry is going to want to be telling us the number, if not im assuming it's gone down.

    Posted via CB10
    Wow, could you let me know where you got the info that that's Blackberry definition of an active user? (one message per 30 days) thanks

    And lol so you're saying it's popular simply because it's a free app? I'm not arguing that if it was paid it would have achieved the same numbers, but there are plenty of free apps that dont get 20 millions downloads in a week..

    However as has been being repeated for some years now, Blackberry's best policy is openness, so up or down, I would like to see some numbers, but i they might just be waiting for another milestone,

    And can't you see how many downloads an app has on the respective appstore l/play store online? Might be wrong

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    12-12-13 12:29 PM
  19. tinochiko's Avatar
    Yes, a source would be nice and the Wall Street gods only know that an actual source, not disinformation from Chicken Little, will be required for any positive (long-term) tone for BBRY from here on out.
    Tino, youre also late to the party here. I set aside comments both above in brackets (and thru highlighting some of your comments) as well as below.

    The months and months, actually go back years and years now to the RIM/BBRY $200/share price. Notwithstanding nearly everyone left the BB planet (investment speaking and otherwise) after late June and the few stubborn remaining left in September after Qtrlys. Blackberry did go on the block officially in August (although theyd been vulnerable for some time prior). And, FYI, BB was ostensibly sold to Prem as now having a super controlling interest (he got his cake and can eat it too)!!! Understand that there is no concerted effort to save BB as we know it; only to spruce up BB for the salvage/bail value it might bring to Prem (and incidentally to other shareholders).

    Indeed, it sounds to me like you are very much disregarding the fact that a year from now BB might be sold not even I, however, would suggest for as little as $2B. Why would you try to support your position with such vehemence then tear yourself down with such a caveat? Stick to your guns even if there are no bullets. Then you bring back support with your inspirational stronger sense that BB Just cant go down and that things could be a whole lot worse.

    You do realize that BB has shed $100B in market value since its cap and that it accounts for 0% (rounded) of the total market for smart phones.doesnt get much worse short of forced liquidation. Yes, you said it best: I realize that Im waffling-on about nothing herehave been waffling on about nothing here. Just a vague sense of emotional mumble playing a game with the odds, as it stands today, of a game of baccarat. Now, to help save face, what you are expressing is a low probability of success rebuild of a dead company and a low probability speculative BBRY play with a penny stock trading mentality. As often previously cited, nothing wrong with this attitude but step away from the emotion and respect BBRYs 98% strip/plunge for what it is. Then, if you must invest, set sell stops to profit from (errant and temporary) spikes/troughs in BBRY pricing.
    This sounds like a battlefield general thats telling the troops fight to the end while he has a backdoor exit neatly tucked away. When youve lost twenty successive battles and already made a treaty to divide up half the land (cf., Prems Billion Note), good tidings and cheerful comments are no longer enough. Chicken Little has spoken once too often and bilked the trust of BB nation (and other investors) one too many times. Now, as BB has lost this privilege of trust, only the fools will listen to positive news without concrete evidence. (Well, actually we said that back at the end of June so nothing new here just a few young new entrants and a few facebook type postings to match.)

    In other words, today, a positive tone is non-sensical for BB without concrete facts. It is a penny stock, day-trading mentality that listens to news on BBRY with the same ear it did 3-4 years ago. BTW, nothing wrong with this attitude, per se, so long as you are aware of the arena that youve entered and not become foolish with emotion over a pure gambling play against all historical and statistical logic. Again, set the sell limits/stops and play with BBRY on day-to-day penny stock mentality basis and roll with the narrow band of peaks and troughs but don't delude yourself (nor try to others) that the basic fundamentals for BB in Dec 2013 point to anything remotely positive to BB functioning as a standalone Hardware/Software smart phone vendor in the (long term) future.
    Wooow, so if a company is doing 'well' you don't need to really read the positive stories because they are likely to be true

    But if it's not doing so 'well' you should break down every single good story

    I would argue that whatever a companies position the facts are just as relevant, that's why as I said before, I (to the best of my knowledge/ability) break down both positive and negative articles in general, including BlackBerry, believing in BlackBerry just means I get more excited of evidenced positive stories than the average person who doesn't care/understand BlackBerry

    To give you a negative example ; when bbm was set to go cross platform and the Android leak was poised as the one and only cause, I dug deeper and discovered it was not so, a mistake in setting the date and then not reaching the targets meant extending the deadline was in Blackberry's interests etc etc

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    12-12-13 12:38 PM
  20. danprown's Avatar
    I look at the financials: ~46% comes from hardware; ~49% from service; and 5% from software (BES and QNX).

    If Blackberry does not sell BB10 phones, hardware is gone; and the service is gone soon thereafter as the dwinlding BB0S users in countries with no indoor plumbing switch to low cost entry level smartphones subsidized by the Chinese or Koreans.

    So far, there is no credible plan on the table how "software" will jump 1900% in the coming years or how BB10 hardware sales can be jump-started (let's reflect on the fact that even resourcful rich people who want the Z30 cannot get it: just ask Morgan+8 in the other thread). Gartner says the MDM market is 1.5 billion dollars, so that cannot be it for software.

    Now, John Chen has been known to "unlock" new opportunities and markets in the past, so if anyone can, probably it is he, not some mediocre manager from within or a sloppy second from a telco.

    But to bet on that, you need to understand the plan straight from the horse's mouth, not from an uncle or from reading CB. So wait for the plan, and then evaluate. Investing before the ER call with no idea what Chen is going to say does not strike me as a reasonable strategy.
    m1a1mg and chr1sny like this.
    12-12-13 01:02 PM
  21. Otech#CB's Avatar
    I look at the financials: ~46% comes from hardware; ~49% from service; and 5% from software (BES and QNX).

    If Blackberry does not sell BB10 phones, hardware is gone; and the service is gone soon thereafter as the dwinlding BB0S users in countries with no indoor plumbing switch to low cost entry level smartphones subsidized by the Chinese or Koreans.

    So far, there is no credible plan on the table how "software" will jump 1900% in the coming years or how BB10 hardware sales can be jump-started (let's reflect on the fact that even resourcful rich people who want the Z30 cannot get it: just ask Morgan+8 in the other thread). Gartner says the MDM market is 1.5 billion dollars, so that cannot be it for software.

    Now, John Chen has been known to "unlock" new opportunities and markets in the past, so if anyone can, probably it is he, not some mediocre manager from within or a sloppy second from a telco.

    But to bet on that, you need to understand the plan straight from the horse's mouth, not from an uncle or from reading CB. So wait for the plan, and then evaluate. Investing before the ER call with no idea what Chen is going to say does not strike me as a reasonable strategy.
    Dude, my uncle is just as smart as you. If not maybe a bit smarter with numbers. He does the things you do in the stockmarket....make money. I don't know why you keep bringing it up. And he's been following news straight from wall street and such. He pays for the service, and for all the updates. He knows what John Chen has accomplished. He is not a fool, so quite trying to tell me that he's wrong or something. I know the risks, If they sell the company I hope it is sold for a lot more when John Chen is done saving the company. The Horse has said he isn't giving up the Handset business, so idk why you think I only get my info from my uncle. You guys come and talk here as if you are smarter than everyone else. As if you're the only one in the world who knows BlackBerry and how things work.

    Posted via CB10
    tinochiko likes this.
    12-12-13 01:32 PM
  22. tinochiko's Avatar
    Analyse this http://www.blackberryos.com/content/...-browser-6840/

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    Otech#CB likes this.
    12-12-13 02:45 PM
  23. zee3p0's Avatar
    Nobody here has any idea what portions of the "service" revenue comes from where. Everybody is assuming it is coming from the consumer BES.

    Still, i have yet to read anywhere a number projection on revenue from BB10 enterprise service revenue. We are talking 30 thousand servers installed and rising 10 percent and up a quarter. What revenues can come from those customers is important here to determine future revenue.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 02:51 PM
  24. m1a1mg's Avatar
    Nobody here has any idea what portions of the "service" revenue comes from where. Everybody is assuming it is coming from the consumer BES.

    Still, i have yet to read anywhere a number projection on revenue from BB10 enterprise service revenue. We are talking 30 thousand servers installed and rising 10 percent and up a quarter. What revenues can come from those customers is important here to determine future revenue.

    Posted via CB10
    Testing and installed. That word, "testing", is very important. No revenue from testing.
    12-12-13 03:04 PM
  25. OMGitworks's Avatar
    I bet they will tell us next week, and my guess is over 100 million.

    O shouldn't have said that. Too late now cant take it back

    Posted via CB10
    Unless they have an incredibly generous definition of "active user" it isn't anywhere close to 100M. Wanna bet that if they tell us anything, they only tell us the # of downloads, which of course is meaningless. If they do release "active users" they won't define that term. BBRY has a history of obfuscation and refusal to release metrics in ER's and changing how they account for things, and in EVERY case they have hidden a disaster. They did it with subscriber #'s and I'd bet they will do it again with other metrics that they will change the way they report or not report at all.

    There is simply no way they have over 100M users using the service every day. For a BBM product I would consider at least 1x a day to be active, anything less is occasional. I am actually thinking the percentage of those who downloaded BBM and no longer use it is greater than those who continued to use it one week later.

    We shall find out soon... maybe....
    12-12-13 03:20 PM
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