[tinochiko]

Oh, we understand long-term. We're also smart enough to know: buy low. As in almost $1 less per share. That's what a smart long would do.

EDIT: By the way, you have those numbers for active users yet for BBM? You said they were available.

Didn't say I was going to provide them, but I'm happy to, since it seems you can only find negative data



http://seekingalpha.com/article/1885...tter-heres-why


http://www.phonearena.com/news/BBM-n...-users_id48834

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[tinochiko]

John Chen didn't even announce any movement. how could you have faith in him?

People seem not to understand the meaning of words..

Faith- belief before results are seen

Although personally I didn't yet say I had faith in him, I have faith in BlackBerry, faith which has already been.evidenced by the z10 in my hand

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[tinochiko]

I'd much rather sink $1000 into taking a Cruise with my wife..... I would enjoy that journey, and that is what it is all about

If you don't enjoy this journey then why are you here? Go to Apple or Samsung and invest happily, just know that if and when BlackBerry is back on track, your true colours will have been shown..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[tinochiko]

Let's say I bought some BBRY stock at its peak because I read press releases that told it was good company and now its only worth 3% of what I paid for it. Now that would be a fraud if anything is. I think even Madoff victims get more than that back.

How is that a fraud? I dislike articles that are 'fake' good as much as those that are 'fake bad.. at the end of the day, you decide that those articles are enough for you to make your decision, and even if the articles misled you, it's not BlackBerry commiting fraud, it's the writer of the article, also it may not have been misleading in that the company may have well been in the depicted position, however you just invested at a time, when things where about to fall apart

You have two options ;
Sell your sharers curse blackberry forever and enoy the alternatives

Stay strong, believe that blackberry has enough tools of used in the right way and by the right people to make a long term turnaround, (at least for the six terms cited by Chen) and if They are successful, reap the rewards,

If you choose the first option, you'll have 0% chance of ever getting the money you lost through blackberry, you could invest elsewhere but that money is gone forever


If you choose b you have the chance, however small to get back what you put in and more..

There are two type of people in the world

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[tinochiko]

I bought some twitter shares.

it has firehose, it is tied with TV, it is tied with politics. I think as long as the tech bubble is going on strong, it will grow. there is nothing like it out there that gauges the pulse of the nation.

the pre-IPO and corporate shenanigans, SEC investigations, etc. are to be expected. The founder may not be a very nice person. But, as long as everything is settled and people are made whole, it will be water under the bridge.

Speaking of securities investigations, lets not forget it was our own Jim and Mike who tried to steal 250MM from us the shareholders. That did not make RIM a scam...

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/12/can...d-bbry-future/

And obviously BlackBerry has no political ties..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[heymaggie]

If you choose the first option, you'll have 0% chance of ever getting the money you lost through blackberry, you could invest elsewhere but that money is gone forever

If you choose b you have the chance, however small to get back what you put in and more..

Hmm...I guess you could think of it in a different way. I now own 1000 shares of BBRY worth exactly $5650. If I sell them now there is a 100 percent chance that I will be able to spend all of it to buy whatever I want whenever I want to. If I don't sell them now, there's a pretty good chance I won't have $5650 to spend in the future. Does it matter how much I bought the shares for? Not as far as this analysis goes.

[zee3p0]

Hmm...I guess you could think of it in a different way. I now own 1000 shares of BBRY worth exactly $5650. If I sell them now there is a 100 percent chance that I will be able to spend all of it to buy whatever I want whenever I want to. If I don't sell them now, there's a pretty good chance I won't have $5650 to spend in the future. Does it matter how much I bought the shares for? Not as far as this analysis goes.

Will you take 2500 for them? Ill throw in a nice curve with case.

Posted via CB10

[vrud]

I didn't read the whole thread, nor I plan to invest in BB or competitor stock (I love my Z10).
Wanted to share my 'investing' experience.

Last year, friends and I were looking at RIM, Apple and smartphone market and some of them were saying RIM is dead.
Many were arguing that Apple is ahead of others and will remain the king of smartphones forever.

Well, I'm usually skeptical about what people say (contrarian) and wanted to show my friends that RIM is nowhere dead.
So we decided to 'invest' in RIMM; we pointed to the bottom but pulled the trigger a little later.
I put the word invest into quotes because it was a fake investment.

Here's the play.
* 0$ down investment
* Short 10 lots of Apple
* Invest the cash from short into RIMM (long)

The portfolio was growing like crazy.
It grew over 1M in less than 6 months and I was happy enough to prove my friends wrong or at least surprise them.

The portfolio was abandoned (it was fake afterall) and I opened it today to see that it went -75K:


The lesson for me was:
* don't listen to analysts, media, friends
* put a ceiling to exit no matter how much you believe in business (in our case it was 2M to retire and it was not reached)
* hedge
* don't play real money

So, today if you want to invest in BBRY then I would suggest to hedge it against Twitter or anything service related.
Apple returned to Earth already, Sammy is too diversified and smartphones market is overcrowded.

[OMGitworks]

Twitter was considering selling its info gathered from all the tweets (private information to some people) to marketing firms and all that just so they can make money. All those people who love twitter and think it is a great site to send out those short messages....and those investors weren't really investing for the good of the people...only for the good of themselves. Yet you people seem to be so offended at how some of us look at twitter. Instead they went public....that money went straight to the Big investors you speak of. They didn't go guy from the stock market... in other words, yea it is a scam. And only some people made money. The smart ones. BlackBerry on the other hand, is low and is still put customers ahead, and they haven't given up. And all I hear is **** talk...You guys like to think as if you're one of the big boys and girls... I beg to differ. The big boys drop loads...I don't think anyone can afford that big of an investment. And Snapchat, is a good buy, but I don't see it being as valuable as BBM Channels....60+ Million Active BB users. 20+ Million Active BBM users on Android and iOS. How is that not a big enough number. SnapChat isn't active enough, and all it is is sending videos, pictures, with a small message. How would this app help Facebook? What is your plan? How could they monetize SnapChat and not annoy current users? I just don't see it being as easy as BBM.

You really don't get how the stock market works. Some of those services may annoy you and you may be offended by what they do with your info but that's not an issue for wall st. Plenty of little people have made money on twitter at this point. Even if you were dumb enough to buy on ipo day at 45, you are still up 10%+. Given a choice as to whether snap chat or channels survive, it isn't even close. For the record and not to gloat, but I have an mba from a school you would recognize and if you are under 25, I was literally working on ipo's before you were born. I do appreciate your enthusiasm, but don't let a few classes at a CA school make you think you know it all. You are making classic beginner assumptions and letting your enthusiasm cloud your judgment on this one. Facts matter, experience matters, opinion is just opinion. No ill will but your naivete is going to cost you real money at some point. I learned my lesson the hard way too, just trying to help....

Posted via CB10

[heymaggie]

If you had skipped all of the machinations and just left it into an S&P 500 index fund, you would have gained 41% over those two years.

[tinochiko]

Hmm...I guess you could think of it in a different way. I now own 1000 shares of BBRY worth exactly $5650. If I sell them now there is a 100 percent chance that I will be able to spend all of it to buy whatever I want whenever I want to. If I don't sell them now, there's a pretty good chance I won't have $5650 to spend in the future. Does it matter how much I bought the shares for? Not as far as this analysis goes.

That's not a different way, that's an expansion of what I said..

If you don't sell them there's a small chanve you'll get more than you ever hoped for to spend or reinvest how you see fit..for the long term that small chance gets bigger and bigger, especially if.you see BlackBerry for what it is.. and look at the bigger picture

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[Otech#CB]

If you had skipped all of the machinations and just left it into an S&P 500 index fund, you would have gained 41% over those two years.

Tino is right. And you obviously invested that much money to win, am I right? So if you still had some hope, you could keep the money, or pull some out. And have a chance to be a winner in the long term. Instead of not really making any money off of a company you once believed in, and spending all the money you pulled to go shopping. It's all up to you. I'm one of the believers and I think you could be happy that you stayed in later down the road, but it's your money. Just like mine is mine, and I'm choosing to do what I want with it. With evidence leading me to believe that there is a future, of course.

[Otech#CB]

You really don't get how the stock market works. Some of those services may annoy you and you may be offended by what they do with your info but that's not an issue for wall st. Plenty of little people have made money on twitter at this point. Even if you were dumb enough to buy on ipo day at 45, you are still up 10%+. Given a choice as to whether snap chat or channels survive, it isn't even close. For the record and not to gloat, but I have an mba from a school you would recognize and if you are under 25, I was literally working on ipo's before you were born. I do appreciate your enthusiasm, but don't let a few classes at a CA school make you think you know it all. You are making classic beginner assumptions and letting your enthusiasm cloud your judgment on this one. Facts matter, experience matters, opinion is just opinion. No I'll will but your naivete is going to cost you real money at some point. I learned my lesson the hard way too, just trying to help....

Posted via CB10

Trust me, I get it. No disrespect, but I had my uncle who is a PhD and has been an investor in many companies, explain to me. He also consults people and gives advice and gets a percentage of profits. He had his own firm at one point before he left the country. He told me this is a long term investment. You cannot keep looking at it each day, or each month. Its going to be a while before we notice the uphill trend, and he didn't think it was a bad investment. High risk, High reward. I respect that you are in it to help, but I feel the same. I am in it to help. For those who invested long before the drop, you have a longer way to go, but I will see profits as soon as it goes above $6.49. My long-term investment will began to show hope long before many. That's just simple math. No need for a BA, MBA, or a PhD to tell me how risky it is. The bigger the investment the riskier, but those who are already losing big aren't good enough to set an example. I mean that in the sense that you invested in the company far back to be looking at the company in a positive manner. That is the truth. I hope you all win wherever you wish to invest. I swear, I mean that. Even if you invest in Apple, like my uncle does.

[m1a1mg]

Didn't say I was going to provide them, but I'm happy to, since it seems you can only find negative data

Where are numbers from BB? One source, Seeking Alpha, guessed. The other, Phone Arena, took numbers of active users from May and added the number of downloads when BBM was first released cross platform, and made up the number 80 million.

Again, where are the number of active users from BB? I ask because you posted this:

Lol well then, it's a good thing BBM is able to show the number of active users then

So, are you making sh** up or do you have an actual source?

[tinochiko]

Where are numbers from BB? One source, Seeking Alpha, guessed. The other, Phone Arena, took numbers of active users from May and added the number of downloads when BBM was first released cross platform, and made up the number 80 million.

Again, where are the number of active users from BB? I ask because you posted this:



So, are you making sh** up or do you have an actual source?

I said bbm is able to show, I didn't say from BlackBerry... what exactly did I make up?

Wow.

I wish you would pick apart negative data as well as you do the positive

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[chr1sny]

Where are numbers from BB? One source, Seeking Alpha, guessed. The other, Phone Arena, took numbers of active users from May and added the number of downloads when BBM was first released cross platform, and made up the number 80 million.

Again, where are the number of active users from BB? I ask because you posted this:



So, are you making sh** up or do you have an actual source?

I said bbm is able to show, I didn't say from BlackBerry... what exactly did I make up?

Wow.

I wish you would pick apart negative data as well as you do the positive

TechCraze C0008DDD1

So what are the numbers? I'm curious to see how many of the new IOS and Android BBM users remain active.

[tinochiko]

So what are the numbers? I'm curious to see how many of the new IOS and Android BBM users remain active.

Read up..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[chr1sny]

Read up..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

But m1a1mg already posted why the articles you cited don't say what you want them to say.

[garnok]

Trust me, I get it. No disrespect, but I had my uncle who is a PhD and has been an investor in many companies, explain to me. He also consults people and gives advice and gets a percentage of profits. He had his own firm at one point before he left the country. He told me this is a long term investment. You cannot keep looking at it each day, or each month. Its going to be a while before we notice the uphill trend, and he didn't think it was a bad investment. High risk, High reward. I respect that you are in it to help, but I feel the same. I am in it to help. For those who invested long before the drop, you have a longer way to go, but I will see profits as soon as it goes above $6.49. My long-term investment will began to show hope long before many. That's just simple math. No need for a BA, MBA, or a PhD to tell me how risky it is. The bigger the investment the riskier, but those who are already losing big aren't good enough to set an example. I mean that in the sense that you invested in the company far back to be looking at the company in a positive manner. That is the truth. I hope you all win wherever you wish to invest. I swear, I mean that. Even if you invest in Apple, like my uncle does.

then you should ask your uncle ...why is he not invest on BlackBerry if he said it is not a bad nvestment..instead he choose apple

i think he just meant there are many other companies that are more attractive to invest your money than BB

Hmm...I guess you could think of it in a different way. I now own 1000 shares of BBRY worth exactly $5650. If I sell them now there is a 100 percent chance that I will be able to spend all of it to buy whatever I want whenever I want to. If I don't sell them now, there's a pretty good chance I won't have $5650 to spend in the future. Does it matter how much I bought the shares for? Not as far as this analysis goes.

$5650 1000 shares it means $5.65/per share, if you sell it now you already get small profit or break even (depends on your broker fee)with today price $5.87 per share

[M65c02]

...I chose to get it low because I can afford it, it has lower risk and shows higher potential. You may have a bunch of money in BB, but you have a big sum to make back up. And you continue to talk down about it. Well maybe you should pull out while you're ahead because you stand a much higher chance of coming out with a loss, compared to me. If I were one of the people who invested when it was soaring, then that would've a mistake, and unforeseen one; at least when iPhone's came out, luckily I wasn't into stocks back then. But if you were experienced then as you are now, you would have pulled out right when you saw the iPhone hit, or maybe after a couple drops in stock value. I'm sorry you have lost a lot, but this isn't a reason to keep saying it will be bad. Because if history repeated all the time, we would continue to have White Presidents in the United States. This should give you a little insight on the truth about history. I am not against your ways of analyzing the market, but I certainly find my way a more accurate way of making assumptions and predictions.

I think that you need a couple more courses in risk assessment to learn how to perform a proper valuation. One does not reduce risk by purchasing a low priced stock, per se. Indeed, BB has near infinite risk today (relative to upside in share price) as it can generate none of either revenues, earnings, or free cash nor can it sell its smart phones and it has been purged from most serious institutional trading. Its share price approaching $10, after flying to $200, was an indication of tremendous problems but $5-6 is nearing a death knell (even forgetting the financials). BB's only value is in a few patents, BBM(X), and a nearly insignificant revenue flow from a few corporate/govt clients. (Any goodwill valuation that was once associated with the RIM/BB name has been nullified.)

Unless/until it can develop a plan to sell 20mm++ BB10 phones, it is on fast burn to becoming financial toast. Read the financials of BB and/or filter and read past posts in CB: This has been stated since, well really beginning four years ago, but with more forte since May. The fall of RIM/BB is in virtual lockstep with that of many larger tech giants than BB ever was. Now the institutions have abandoned, the hedge funds are ignoring, and this is a pure speculative/payback play for the few remaining big boys. Prem is not in this to rebuild BB; he only sees some value in manipulating the assets to cut his losses.

To another comment of yours relative to any investment I might have: To the contrary, if I was experienced I would have pulled out several years ago, sold short, sold calls, or bought puts. Today I would simply be day-trading blocks of 10,000 for the eighths and teenths. But, no, no absolutely no investment here: Otech you are late to this game...I do the forecasts for BB and projected and published predictions of drops to $9 (with a sale) but with a true valuation of $6-7 and a re-pricing thereto if Prem's sale fell through. With no cogent future plan, cash bleeding will push BB to test under the critical $5/share in early 2014 (with 25% of that value tied to a bloated market). But Prem will fight tooth and nail to keep the price above $5.50. Sure, there might be an occasional 1/2-3/4pt spike with (dis)information and a poor (rather than horrible) quarterly earnings report but the price will again settle and slowly slide. (Cash is projected to run out in 2015 w/o a new revenue source/plan.)

Therefore, I'm here for the technical (phone) side and due to my long-term commitment to BB as a user. CB isn't an investment site, per se, yet so many posters obviously base all their comments on emotion borne of their (most often undisclosed) share ownership rather than looking at BB/industry fundamentals and/or applying a touch of logic. ... I deal in facts not persuasive fiction or simply wishful thinking. A salesman will tell you that you are beautiful when you are ugly but take your money and move on: A technician will tell you that you where you are ugly but tell you the best manner to fix it. SO, "Be careful not to ___ where you sleep." ... such sage advice.

You really don't get how the stock market works. Some of those services [i.e., Twitter] may annoy or you offend you by what they do with your info but that's not an issue for Wall Street. Plenty of little people [already] have made money on Twitter. Even if you were dumb enough to buy on IPO day at 45, you are still up 10%+. Given a choice as to whether snap chat or channels survive, it isn't even close. For the record and not to gloat, but I have a MBA from a school you would might recognize and [since] you are under 25, I was literally working on IPO's before you were born. [We] do [mostly] appreciate your enthusiasm, but don't let a few classes at a CA school make you think you know it all [or anything for that matter]. You are making classic beginner assumptions and letting your enthusiasm cloud your judgment on this one. Facts matter, experience matters, opinion is just opinion [unless it is supported by logic and reason]. No ill will but your naivete is going to cost you real money at some point. [Many have] learned [their own] lesson the hard way too, just trying to help....

With just a few edits [in brackets above], well said by a few other CBers too.

Agreed.... of course the odds that there will be a stock with the BBRY name attached to it in the long-term is a LONG shot. Of course that is why you have the potential of a huge gain if BBRY manages to find someway to become profitable again. We reached 25 months with the "I support BBRY...." thread... that to me is a long time to watch my investment go lower, and lower, back up, back up, then lower, and lower, and lower.......

Right, but the odds that the stock will have BBRY attached is really closer to –nill-. The "I support BBRY" thread has become distracted and, at times, even veers away from BBRY to other stocks. It has long since reached the end of its function and, at best, now is a day-trader blog for BBRY.

Remember when I said BBRY longs have to resort to hyperbole to support their defensive tendencies? First OP said it was fraud, now its "attempted fraud."

Yes, and the toughest of these singers have disappeared from CB but a few newbies come from the woodwork. For those youngsters, college students, and any that haven’t the concept of how NYC/London/Tokyo/HK functions, it has always been a vast, vast majority based on misrepresentation/fraud….nothing new here. Today, the federal govt controls even the investment bankers (or the investment banks control the govt) through the FED … now you can take it from there. ..... Twitter is here to stay even if it might be scaled back .....

If you had skipped all of the machinations and just left it into an S&P 500 index fund, you would have gained 41% over those two years.

I'd much rather sink $1000 into taking a Cruise with my wife..... I would enjoy that journey, and that is what it is all about

Agreed, The opportunity cost of BBRY alone adds another 15-20% per annum.
So, the cruise is an alternative investment that may yield more value but please get the best room available. These cruises can be a bit skanky at times.

Well that didn't stop me from buying 2 New Z10s at $199 per, for my Mom and Dad. And on top of that it went up to 6.40 before it dropped again....I'm waiting to get a Z30. And this 189 Share which I have will stay until it goes up as I am predicting.

Well last week you were down 20-25%. You may get some market manipulation and a quick pop to end of the year; put a sell at $6 15/16, keep the phones, and buy the best steak dinner around for you and uncle. Then, during your Christmas break, look for a company to study that has some real fundamentals and future prospects … BBRY may still sell all, or a portion of its assets, but the institutions will never return to BBRY (as we know it)....this is a day trade scenario.

I genuinely hope it does not work out for you. Please allow me to explain. Right now, the majority of young stock investors are closing out 2013 thinking that they are good investors because the value of their portfolios has gone up 20% or so. Like most young investors, they won't be spending these gains, rather, they will put them back in to their increasing portfolios. It's typically of how bubbles form. When the inevitable correction happens, they will suffer much large losses.
You, on the other hand, are learning the same lesson about stocks even with just a couple hundred shares. You will be much better prepared for the inevitable down market.

This is a huge bubble created by: (1) No place else to put the money; (2) Fed unprecedented, ridiculous funding to the tune of nearly $2T+ that has created an artificial economic stimulus the cost of which will be borne by the U.S. (and somewhat by the World as a whole) in the future; (3) Very questionable favorable economic data.
… The idea is to kick the can down the road while the U.S. real GDP accelerates. But, somewhat similar to BBRY, the long-term fundamentals for the U.S. economy look bleak with a permanent growth rate of less than 2.5%net (i.e., after the reporting game corrections). This also will mean that the U.S. will never provide enough growth to pay any of its debt and bear a permanent 100%+ GDP debt subject only to a hyper-inflation scenario to remedy (in nominal dollars): Ugly and scary!!

[If your uncle says it is a good investment] then you should ask your uncle ...why is he not invest on BlackBerry if he said it is not a bad investment...instead he chose apple. I think he just meant there are many other companies that are more attractive to invest your money than BB
$5650 1000 shares it means $5.65/per share, if you sell it now you already get small profit or break even (depends on your broker fee)with today price $5.87 per share

Yes, this Uncle comment by OP seems far afield. Surely, Otech/OP is pulling our leg and/or his uncle has a PhD in biology?! High Risk can equal High Reward but in this case High Risk = High Loss with potential for moderate reward. You need to wait until BB turns to get the possibility of a high return. There are no fundamentals to indicate that BB will ever again turn a profit. Wait until they can show a possibility of selling 20mm phones (BB10 or, heck, even legacies at this point) at some semblance of a profit. (Or, until they start selling assets.)
[EDIT below]
Without any news, you are using a penny stock mentality or should be day trading BBRY. The balloon is only two feet off the ground and dragging Prems billion dollar preferential debt. It will take much, much more hot air to re-float this basket of goodies then even six months ago and, now, with even less fuel in the tank.

[Note: Otech, this isn’t Facebook even as it may appear to be at times. It adds little/nothing to your argument to resort to quotes by your Uncle, sister, father, or teacher … Consider avoiding citation of family members, or even friends. Simply state your points and, I suppose, you can add “comments from an informed source,” although that also will add little persuasion to your argument.]

Garnok, OP purchased at somewhere near $6.65 with presumptively $7 BE and heymaggie is better situated having (I guess) bought in the trough late last week. The theme of these postings for some time has been that everyone is holding a loss. The only play for BBRY has been trading for eighths and “teenths” on the volume and hiccups since May with, perhaps, the hope for a sale at $9. But heymaggie should sell at 6 7/16 and get out. OR, she might re-enter with care when the stock again dips into the 5's and watch for another day-type trade. (Or, she also might sell tomorrow at 6 3/16 and buy Christmas presents.) But in this generally up market, there are/were so many other less risky plays.

Sell the stock and keep the phones … Never ____ where you play.

[tinochiko]

But m1a1mg already posted why the articles you cited don't say what you want them to say.

No, he cited why they don't say what he wants them to say, they say what I wanted to say perfectly well, those figures were released by the BBM team..

And i repeat, if only you evaluated and broke down negative data about BlackBerry with as much effort as you do the positive..

Instead of hiding behind -tongue in cheek comments , you could actually see what we see, but people do what they do, everyone has to play a role


We can keep going back and forth for months, someone citing the current BlackBerry stock value, someone showing someone else how uneducated they are, bringing in the big names..

At the end of the day, it seems we're all too stubborn to be open to data, or we like to call ourselves open then shoot down whatever the opposition says, I'm sure if a year from now BlackBerry is doing well, instead of taking back comments, you'll just justify how when they were low BlackBerry was not a good investment and in time it changed to be etc etc whereas that's the future some of us, however few, see now

Obviously I'm not disregarding the fact that a year from now we could have a broken down BlackBerry that's had to go into administration or something or be bought for 2billion, I would also then say at the time I believed BlackBerry would turn things around and as time went on it became clear they couldn't, although personally I believe this is quite unlikely


Every day I get a stronger sense that Blackberry can't just go down, that things could be a whole lot worse, as they could be better, but i take what I get and hope for.the best, which is the way some people invest..


I realised I'm waffling on about nothing here but I'm just realising that all my efforts trying to get the message across to you that it's not 'I'll go down with this ship' blackberry fan extrmists only who would consider an investment in BlackBerry now, that it just makes sense

But it's much like trying to show someone who's always counted things using stones, to use numbers, some people recognise a risk that's worth it for them, others shy away


Two types of people in this world..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[chr1sny]

No, he cited why they don't say what he wants them to say, they say what I wanted to say perfectly well, those figures were released by the BBM team..

And i repeat, if only you evaluated and broke down negative data about BlackBerry with as much effort as you do the positive..

Instead of hiding behind -tongue in cheek comments , you could actually see what we see, but people do what they do, everyone has to play a role


We can keep going back and forth for months, someone citing the current BlackBerry stock value, someone showing someone else how uneducated they are, bringing in the big names..

At the end of the day, it seems we're all too stubborn to be open to data, or we like to call ourselves open then shoot down whatever the opposition says, I'm sure if a year from now BlackBerry is doing well, instead of taking back comments, you'll just justify how when they were low BlackBerry was not a good investment and in time it changed to be etc etc whereas that's the future some of us, however few, see now

Obviously I'm not disregarding the fact that a year from now we could have a broken down BlackBerry that's had to go into administration or something or be bought for 2billion, I would also then say at the time I believed BlackBerry would turn things around and as time went on it became clear they couldn't, although personally I believe this is quite unlikely


Every day I get a stronger sense that Blackberry can't just go down, that things could be a whole lot worse, as they could be better, but i take what I get and hope for.the best, which is the way some people invest..


I realised I'm waffling on about nothing here but I'm just realising that all my efforts trying to get the message across to you that it's not 'I'll go down with this ship' blackberry fan extrmists only who would consider an investment in BlackBerry now, that it just makes sense

But it's much like trying to show someone who's always counted things using stones, to use numbers, some people recognise a risk that's worth it for them, others shy away


Two types of people in this world..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

You should stop moving the goal posts. M1's original inquiry was whether the numbers of active BBM users were released by any official source. I don't think anyone other than you cares whether the numbers come from the BBM team or BBRY (assuming there's even a difference).

Active user data as opposed to just download numbers is the relevant inquiry. So far you haven't been able to provide any accurate or reliable information on the current number of active users. I think that's what M1 was interested in seeing.

Your comments about "if only you evaluated and broke down negative data about BlackBerry with as much effort as you do the positive" are not particularly compelling when the "positive" news sources (e.g., seekingalpha articles) are of dubious quality and exhibit lazy thinking.

[m1a1mg]

Tino, you sure type a lot to say nothing.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using CB Forums mobile app

[Otech#CB]

I think that you need a couple more courses in risk assessment to learn how to perform a proper valuation. One does not reduce risk by purchasing a low priced stock, per se. Indeed, BB has near infinite risk today (relative to upside in share price) as it can generate none of either revenues, earnings, or free cash nor can it sell its smart phones and it has been purged from most serious institutional trading. Its share price approaching $10, after flying to $200, was an indication of tremendous problems but $5-6 is nearing a death knell (even forgetting the financials). BB's only value is in a few patents, BBM(X), and a nearly insignificant revenue flow from a few corporate/govt clients. (Any goodwill valuation that was once associated with the RIM/BB name has been nullified.)

Unless/until it can develop a plan to sell 20mm++ BB10 phones, it is on fast burn to becoming financial toast. Read the financials of BB and/or filter and read past posts in CB: This has been stated since, well really beginning four years ago, but with more forte since May. The fall of RIM/BB is in virtual lockstep with that of many larger tech giants than BB ever was. Now the institutions have abandoned, the hedge funds are ignoring, and this is a pure speculative/payback play for the few remaining big boys. Prem is not in this to rebuild BB; he only sees some value in manipulating the assets to cut his losses.

To another comment of yours relative to any investment I might have: To the contrary, if I was experienced I would have pulled out several years ago, sold short, sold calls, or bought puts. Today I would simply be day-trading blocks of 10,000 for the eighths and teenths. But, no, no absolutely no investment here: Otech you are late to this game...I do the forecasts for BB and projected and published predictions of drops to $9 (with a sale) but with a true valuation of $6-7 and a re-pricing thereto if Prem's sale fell through. With no cogent future plan, cash bleeding will push BB to test under the critical $5/share in early 2014 (with 25% of that value tied to a bloated market). But Prem will fight tooth and nail to keep the price above $5.50. Sure, there might be an occasional 1/2-3/4pt spike with (dis)information and a poor (rather than horrible) quarterly earnings report but the price will again settle and slowly slide. (Cash is projected to run out in 2015 w/o a new revenue source/plan.)

Therefore, I'm here for the technical (phone) side and due to my long-term commitment to BB as a user. CB isn't an investment site, per se, yet so many posters obviously base all their comments on emotion borne of their (most often undisclosed) share ownership rather than looking at BB/industry fundamentals and/or applying a touch of logic. ... I deal in facts not persuasive fiction or simply wishful thinking. A salesman will tell you that you are beautiful when you are ugly but take your money and move on: A technician will tell you that you where you are ugly but tell you the best manner to fix it. SO, "Be careful not to ___ where you sleep." ... such sage advice.
With just a few edits [in brackets above], well said by a few other CBers too.

Right, but the odds that the stock will have BBRY attached is really closer to �nill-. The "I support BBRY" thread has become distracted and, at times, even veers away from BBRY to other stocks. It has long since reached the end of its function and, at best, now is a day-trader blog for BBRY.
Yes, and the toughest of these singers have disappeared from CB but a few newbies come from the woodwork. For those youngsters, college students, and any that haven�t the concept of how NYC/London/Tokyo/HK functions, it has always been a vast, vast majority based on misrepresentation/fraud�.nothing new here. Today, the federal govt controls even the investment bankers (or the investment banks control the govt) through the FED � now you can take it from there. ..... Twitter is here to stay even if it might be scaled back .....
Agreed, The opportunity cost of BBRY alone adds another 15-20% per annum.
So, the cruise is an alternative investment that may yield more value but please get the best room available. These cruises can be a bit skanky at times. Well last week you were down 20-25%. You may get some market manipulation and a quick pop to end of the year; put a sell at $6 15/16, keep the phones, and buy the best steak dinner around for you and uncle. Then, during your Christmas break, look for a company to study that has some real fundamentals and future prospects � BBRY may still sell all, or a portion of its assets, but the institutions will never return to BBRY (as we know it)....this is a day trade scenario.
This is a huge bubble created by: (1) No place else to put the money; (2) Fed unprecedented, ridiculous funding to the tune of nearly $2T+ that has created an artificial economic stimulus the cost of which will be borne by the U.S. (and somewhat by the World as a whole) in the future; (3) Very questionable favorable economic data.
� The idea is to kick the can down the road while the U.S. real GDP accelerates. But, somewhat similar to BBRY, the long-term fundamentals for the U.S. economy look bleak with a permanent growth rate of less than 2.5%net (i.e., after the reporting game corrections). This also will mean that the U.S. will never provide enough growth to pay any of its debt and bear a permanent 100%+ GDP debt subject only to a hyper-inflation scenario to remedy (in nominal dollars): Ugly and scary!!
Yes, this Uncle comment by OP seems far afield. Surely, Otech/OP is pulling our leg and/or his uncle has a PhD in biology?!

[Note: Otech, this isn�t Facebook even as it may appear to be at times. It adds little/nothing to your argument to resort to quotes by your Uncle, sister, father, or teacher � Consider avoiding citation of family members, or even friends. Simply state your points and, I suppose, you can add �comments from an informed source,� although that also will add little persuasion to your argument.]

Garnok, OP purchased at somewhere near $6.65 with presumptively $7 BE and heymaggie is better situated having (I guess) bought in the trough late last week. The theme of these postings for some time has been that everyone is holding a loss. The only play for BBRY has been trading for eighths and �teenths� on the volume and hiccups since May with, perhaps, the hope for a sale at $9. But heymaggie should sell at 6 7/16 and get out. OR, she might re-enter with care when the stock again dips into the 5's and watch for another day-type trade. But in this generally up market, there are/were so many other less risky plays.

Sell the stock and keep the phones � Never ____ where you play.

You can keep analyzing all you want. My uncle is a PhD, believe or not. You just told me you do the analytics, most people in this thread want to see facts and articles and evidence to believe any number or prediction. And you just gave me plenty. You can try and insult my family all you want, I think you're the one pulling the leg here. I hope you've pulled out all your shares, I wouldn't want you to lose something you're not willing to risk. I think it is a worthy investment. Call me crazy.

Posted via CB10

[Otech#CB]

Tino, you sure type a lot to say nothing.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using CB Forums mobile app

I think you may be blind or something friend...he said a lot. And he showed the numbers that I stated, and you wanted to see....you guys are full of something else...hate? I don't know, but you guys are definitely not open minded.

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