[FinalEpiphany]

The recent price action certainly isn't bullish as there is no rebound even after the massive drop since earnings. But at this level, it is a matter of weighing probabilities of the stock going up or down and by much either way. I can see BB dropping another $1 or $2 at most from this level in the short run until the next earnings come around to provide facts either to support a bullish turnaround or further bearish case. On the upside, there is always the possibility of some type of rumour sending it higher and there is a lot of shorts who will be covering at these levels especially those who got in early. This is why the price is at a stalemate situation right now with frustrated institutions and retails giving up but supported and offset by short covering. Just look at the most recent decline in short position from 184mm to 164mm.

[yyzberry]

How is the share price in a stalemate? It has consistently drifted lower & lower every week since the catastrophic earnings release. It's bleeding to death.

Btw, $2 off $8.88 is 22.5%. Where else you gotta get that kind of return over next few months? It's a layup. The rumors are dead. Everyone is waiting for this patient to die and then they'll fight over his estate.

[FinalEpiphany]

I'm just giving $2 from here as the maximum downside risk I see in an extreme scenario which I don't really forsee happening.

Anyways, we all have our views regarding this stock and let us trade according to those beliefs of ours and only time will prove anything.

[bekkay]

Excellent write-up. Thanks, OP.

[bekkay]

He is fool and what are you???? Lol...
The guy has a fantastic track record..No one comes close to his record.

Posted via CB10

Lol, Did you not make the same argument to predict the earnings call results recently?

[heymaggie]

The Katar market share report this morning is pretty dismal. I think the market has already priced in continued market share declines. What is keeping this stock from tanking even further is the value of the cash, short covering, and the prospect of an acquisition which seems more likely every week.

[yyzberry]

An acquisition would come around $3 because that's enough of a discount to still winds things up, pay severance costs, liquidate assets and still split up the remaining cash will no doubt is bleeding by the day.

[yyzberry]

Q6: What are catalysts for the Blackberry stock coming up?
A6: There has been a lot of talks about Blackberry being potentially acquired by one of the bigger players and I would agree that it is the fastest way to realize some upside to the stock as I'm positive that the company's assets are still valuable to other players, at least in piece meal form


What makes you so positive? What do you think the total wind up costs of the company would come to? Severance, lawyers, lawsuits, etc.

[dusdal]

The Katar market share report this morning is pretty dismal. I think the market has already priced in continued market share declines. What is keeping this stock from tanking even further is the value of the cash, short covering, and the prospect of an acquisition which seems more likely every week.

What about the Kantar report did you find dismal? Any positives?

[bekkay]

What about the Kantar report did you find dismal? Any positives?

Here is the table:

[dusdal]

I've seen it for sure.

Cheers though.

It's more realistic to look at it month-to-month due to the current transition taking place.

[Chicago777Guy]

Lol, Did you not make the same argument to predict the earnings call results recently?

Nope I did not...What I said was it's foolish to bet against him...Thats still true..This is not one quaters game....we will see how next few quarters play out...Its him against crowd with no track record whatsoever...

Posted via CB10

[yyzberry]

Here is the table:

http://i40.tinypic.com/2z9mk2o.jpg

1.1% of Americans use the Blackberry! That says it all. Thank you for sharing. I will keep my short open til $5 now!

[heymaggie]

What about the Kantar report did you find dismal? Any positives?

US marketshare of 1.1%? That means all of the efforts to get developers on board are destined to fail. Other than that, I guess the report was OK.

On the positive side? This will all be over pretty soon.

[cgk]

I've seen it for sure.

Cheers though.

It's more realistic to look at it month-to-month due to the current transition taking place.

This isn't fine wine, in this market place right now mobile devices either hit big or they fold and go home - sales are not going to ramp. At this rate we are more likely to see blackberry removed off the chart and simply lumped in with 'other'.

[theRock1975]

1.1% of Americans use the Blackberry! That says it all. Thank you for sharing. I will keep my short open til $5 now!

Do you realize they have $6 a share in cash. You're basically valuing the company, the patents, qnx, tat, all property at $-1 (ie -$550m)? Not even $0?

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

1.1% of Americans use the Blackberry! That says it all. Thank you for sharing. I will keep my short open til $5 now!

That 1.1% is up from 0.7 percent. In the second largest smartphone market. In one month. The month that the first two phones launched in.

It's isn't a homerun but it sure is a nice start. Assuming the data is reliable.

[danprown]

Who really are the potential buyers of BBRY as a going concern?
I think last year when the SP was $6, management tried to sell the company and even retained some Canadian banks for that purpose. Nothing came out of it. I presume as part of the due dilligence any potential buyer would have seen and kicked the tires of BB10, BES10, BBM.
What has changed from last year to this year, which would make a company buy BBRY now, as opposed to last year.

[yyzberry]

Do you realize they have $6 a share in cash. You're basically valuing the company, the patents, qnx, tat, all property at $-1 (ie -$550m)? Not even $0?

Posted via CB10

That was before paying all their oustanding AP. Read this:

Specifically, first, we think current accounts payable is at an unsustainable level. The implied days of payable is 50, which is at a 5-yr high and significantly above the 5-yr average of 31 days. If days outstanding drops to a more normalized level, accounts payable could drop to around $600mn from $1,169mn, indicating ~$550mn cash burn.

Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) Accounts Payable Unsustainable: CS

They will burn through the cash and have to fire sell the assets.

[heymaggie]

That 1.1% is up from 0.7 percent. In the second largest smartphone market. In one month. The month that the first two phones launched in.

Every other thread on this forum is a complaint/concern regarding how potential customers, developers, carriers, employers, etc. are servicing Blackberry. The answer to this mysterious behavior is clearly that Blackberry only deserves slightly more than 1% of the attention of the US smartphone industry. If BB10 doesn't take off this year, I don't see why everyone shouldn't write Blackberry off for good - no matter how much cash it has.

[dusdal]

Maybe. The graph is going in the right direction currently though and the new platform has just arrived

Looking forward to seeing the figures in the coming months!

Posted via CB10

[Andy321]

Misek's guidance? He is the one who pitched the highest number last time. Analysts can't tell the future. Neither can I, but don't get burned believing them


Posted via CB10

[yyzberry]

Surely you jest.

The bump if any is the patient on life support farting. The right direction is a move from 1% to 10%. Give it up already. Apollo Creed is dead. Drago killed him. Rocky gets the cool shorts.

[the_sleuth]

Here is the technical view of BBRY:

Gallery View - StockCharts.com - Free Charts





Fibonacci Retracement from 52 week high and today's close on Nasdaq:


Fibonacci Retracement from $14.48 on June 27th prior to earnings release (best, relevant chart):


Fibonacci Retracement between 52 week high & 52 week low:


Fibonacci retracements explained:
Fibonacci Retracements - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

BBRY is now down 40.3% from its close on Thursday June 27 prior to earnings release. The technical charts look gawd awful.

Fibonacci retracements are often used to identify the end of a correction or a counter-trend bounce. Corrections and counter-trend bounces often retrace a portion of the prior move. While short 23.6% retracements do occur, the 38.2-61.8% covers the more possibilities (with 50% in the middle). This zone may seem big, but it is just a reversal alert zone. Other technical signals are needed to confirm a reversal. Reversals can be confirmed with candlesticks, momentum indicators, volume or chart patterns. In fact, the more confirming factors the more robust the signal.
Fibonacci retracement below 61.8% on downtrend is a clear warning sign. The best probable, from technical persective, upward retracement would be to $10.8654. This would be met with sell resistance from investors trying to recover some their losses. The only catalysts I see as follows prior to next earnings release:

1) Launch event of cross platform BBM
2) Announcement by BlackBerry of large corporations or government agenices purchasing BB10 devices for its employees (like the Canadian Tire announcement)
3) Report in the first week of August from BlackBerry regarding the shipping rate of BB10 devices, anything above 1 million rate per month would be regarded as positive
4) Partnership, large equity investment, or sale of company.

I don't see BlackBerry revisiting its $6.22 prior to next earnings release. At $6.22, market was questioning if BB10 would launch! We will settle somewhere between $6.22 and $8.65 close of today. Your guess is as good as mine.

Happy Capitalism.

[kfh227]

That was before paying all their oustanding AP. Read this:

Specifically, first, we think current accounts payable is at an unsustainable level. The implied days of payable is 50, which is at a 5-yr high and significantly above the 5-yr average of 31 days. If days outstanding drops to a more normalized level, accounts payable could drop to around $600mn from $1,169mn, indicating ~$550mn cash burn.

Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) Accounts Payable Unsustainable: CS

They will burn through the cash and have to fire sell the assets.

Accounts receivable are also up.

And how did they calculate 50 days? Using 5 years of data preBb10?

Posted via CB10