1. kcdist's Avatar
    Hopefully, someone here might be able to shed some light on something we've seen - not only today - but frequently over the past number of weeks.

    I have a more than basic understanding of the market, and have been investing for over 20 years, however, I have never been involved in a stock such as BBRY. I realize there is an extremely strong short interest in the stock, and I understand shorting, as well as naked shorting. What I don't understand is how BBRY can continually have such incredible volume, (today almost 20% of outstanding shares - and not the first time this month), and go down on good news.

    I understand the mantra "buy on rumour, sell on news", however, I believe today was a determined effort by shorts to keep the stock price in check. I could be wrong, but any long term investor should have looked at today's results, and thought "Not bad...moving in the right direction...let's see what next quarter brings". At the very least, there wasn't a catalyst for the longs to sell at a break even or loss, which is where we were for most of the day.

    Basically, how do the shorts continue to have such volume of ammunition - meaning shares to sell on the open market to keep the price in check? Obviously, Funds that have considerable short shares or puts would also at the same time hold a number of common shares to dump on the market should the price spike....we saw that the day of the original launch, and again during the AT&T launch.......but with the volume that's been sold lately, where do all the shares come from?

    There's a lot of serious money that is invested in the potential failure of BBRY, and they no doubt have safe-guards in place, but how do they do it? How do they beat down every spike with such a massive amount of selling?

    I'm a long term long.....my horizon is at least another year, and I know that EVENTUALLY, continued good news will destroy the shorts....however, what is happening now is both fascinating and - to me - unexplainable.
    jxnb likes this.
    03-28-13 04:15 PM
  2. tiziano27's Avatar
    The ER was not that good as some people say. The margins improved, that's very good. But the company is still not profitable in its operation. Profits reported come from a tax benefit for losses in previous years, not because the business is in good shape.

    The worst part of the report are sales. The company shipped only 5 million BB7 devices in a context of a very dynamic smartphone market and the quarter included the holidays. Poor sales generated the biggest fall in subscribers for the company, 3 million in just one quarter.

    700k bb10 units sold are ok, not good, not bad. But bb10 sales are not enough to counter the decline of bb7.
    If news are: the z10 is not selling well in the US, decline in sales and price cuts in other market such UK, UEA, then you can configure a scenario for the next quarter in which sales of BB7 collapses and sales of bb10 don't take off.

    700k z10 is not an impressive number, doesn't give much information about the future of the platform.

    Such a big uncertainty about the future convert it in the perfect stock for trading, the stock fluctuate a lot during a normal day, traders buy and sell the stock trying to earn small wins, that explain the big volume.

    If bad news about sales in US and other markets continue the stock can go lower until the next earnings report which will have a lot more information that in this one.

    Conspiracy theories are just in the mind of people that are obsessed with the stock.
    03-28-13 05:01 PM
  3. kcdist's Avatar
    Sunshine....take a hike.

    You obviously have no clue either. Over 25% Short interest is not a conspiracy......
    03-28-13 05:15 PM
  4. tiziano27's Avatar
    Sunshine....take a hike.

    You obviously have no clue either. Over 25% Short interest is not a conspiracy......
    A big short interest only tells you that a lot of people think the stock is overpriced. The stock price doesn't go down because a lot of other people thinks that the stock is underpriced. This big dispersion of opinion is caused by uncertainty.
    Information is expected to come in following months that will reveal the real valuation of the company in a definitive way and the possible scenarios are far distant from each other. BBRY in the following months can go to $40 o come back to $6 without surprise, just depend on the reception of BB10.

    There are many stocks with bigger short interest/float ratio, including other big ones like tesla motors with 49.9%. Look at this:

    Short Interest Tables - WSJ.com
    03-28-13 07:14 PM
  5. S180's Avatar
    The ER was not that good as some people say. The margins improved, that's very good. But the company is still not profitable in its operation. Profits reported come from a tax benefit for losses in previous years, not because the business is in good shape.

    The worst part of the report are sales. The company shipped only 5 million BB7 devices in a context of a very dynamic smartphone market and the quarter included the holidays. Poor sales generated the biggest fall in subscribers for the company, 3 million in just one quarter.

    700k bb10 units sold are ok, not good, not bad. But bb10 sales are not enough to counter the decline of bb7.
    If news are: the z10 is not selling well in the US, decline in sales and price cuts in other market such UK, UEA, then you can configure a scenario for the next quarter in which sales of BB7 collapses and sales of bb10 don't take off.

    700k z10 is not an impressive number, doesn't give much information about the future of the platform.

    Such a big uncertainty about the future convert it in the perfect stock for trading, the stock fluctuate a lot during a normal day, traders buy and sell the stock trying to earn small wins, that explain the big volume.

    If bad news about sales in US and other markets continue the stock can go lower until the next earnings report which will have a lot more information that in this one.

    Conspiracy theories are just in the mind of people that are obsessed with the stock.
    Where did you get the information that the tax benefits are the cause of profits?
    03-29-13 12:18 AM
  6. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    The ER was not that good as some people say. The margins improved, that's very good. But the company is still not profitable in its operation. Profits reported come from a tax benefit for losses in previous years, not because the business is in good shape.

    The worst part of the report are sales. The company shipped only 5 million BB7 devices in a context of a very dynamic smartphone market and the quarter included the holidays. Poor sales generated the biggest fall in subscribers for the company, 3 million in just one quarter.

    700k bb10 units sold are ok, not good, not bad. But bb10 sales are not enough to counter the decline of bb7.
    If news are: the z10 is not selling well in the US, decline in sales and price cuts in other market such UK, UEA, then you can configure a scenario for the next quarter in which sales of BB7 collapses and sales of bb10 don't take off.

    700k z10 is not an impressive number, doesn't give much information about the future of the platform.

    Such a big uncertainty about the future convert it in the perfect stock for trading, the stock fluctuate a lot during a normal day, traders buy and sell the stock trying to earn small wins, that explain the big volume.

    If bad news about sales in US and other markets continue the stock can go lower until the next earnings report which will have a lot more information that in this one.

    Conspiracy theories are just in the mind of people that are obsessed with the stock.
    What you say is somewhat true but only part of the story....your a smart guy, place yourself in TH's position. Would you be conservative and build what you can sell, utilize garilla marketing as well as ensure a street beat...or, do what the majority of the street called..a loss?

    Why people insist on negative half empty descriptives is beyond me.

    Posted via CB10
    03-29-13 01:52 AM
  7. jrlong's Avatar
    BB/BBRY is highly volatile with a ton of share liquidity, which makes it a great stock to day-trade and computer trade. There's a very good chance that the same person/firm/computer is buying and selling the same share hundreds or maybe thousands of times per day. This is capturing pennies (or maybe dimes) of movement on the stock. As I understand it, big investment houses actually get paid a commission from the exchange to add liquidity to the markets, so they're making money just by buying and selling. The system is built VERY different for the big guys vs. a lot of the small investors that are working with private or discount brokerages and paying anywhere from $5 to $50 just to make a trade (these fees are stunningly ridiculous). Not only is it impossible to trade quickly, you could never afford the commissions.

    I'm not sure if there are any tools for the average person to get these sort of numbers in any meaningful way (you can often see the last 10 trades on various websites with an indication of who the buyer and seller was, but on a stock like BBRY that changes every second).

    Generally people have a price target whether it be short or long, so people waiting for more drastic moves are on the sidelines watching the noise. Paraphrasing from what Chris said in the VOD002 cast, tech stocks can easily bounce around a few percentage points a day and no one really pays attention because they're looking for bigger moves. However, there are still plenty of investors playing the short-term market which maintains the high volume of BB shares traded each day.

    I'm not an expert and would appreciate anyone to correct me if I've said something incorrectly.
    03-29-13 04:28 PM

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