1. kfh227's Avatar
    The last 3 quarters inventory levels are as follows:
    $457m
    $603m
    $887m

    I am curious of the jump from 603 to 887. That is an $280m increase. If those are Q10s that cost $400 each to make that is about 700,000 units. Thing is, the USA release was a weak after earnings closed. I figure some of that inventory was headed there.

    But that is a huge stock to have. Could we be heading towards a 3.5 million unit quarter?
    07-03-13 07:49 PM
  2. the_sleuth's Avatar
    BlackBerry has to spend on components to build Z10, Q10, Q5 and the remainder of BB0S 7 devices. So the build-up in inventory is not unusual. It has to sign contracts with suppliers promising X amount of orders for parts and so forth. It can get scary if BlackBerry pulls another PlayBook debacle, where demand never materialized to meet management's forecasts. Then there could be huge write downs from stuffed sales channels and product returns. Pray that BB management can execute and Q10 / Q5 will be a success. Hope springs eternal....
    Last edited by the_sleuth; 07-04-13 at 12:46 PM.
    07-03-13 08:00 PM
  3. njblackberry's Avatar
    The Motley Fool has an article about their sharp inventory increases.

    Is Another Writedown Coming for BlackBerry? (BBRY)
    07-03-13 08:06 PM
  4. dusdal's Avatar
    I would think $400 is a high cost per unit.

    Posted via CB10
    _dimi_ likes this.
    07-03-13 08:26 PM
  5. kfh227's Avatar
    I just picked $400 out of the air. Could be $200-$400 I suppose. It's close enough just to talk rough numbers though.

    I thought that after BBRY stopped making hardware that they wouldn't have any of the hardware in inventory. That hte 3rd party manufacturers would have it in their inventory. I don't see how BBRY would have it as inventory and the manufacturer would again have the same items in inventory.

    Off to the motley fool article ...... DUCK!
    07-03-13 09:15 PM
  6. Zarpan's Avatar
    The Motley Fool has an article about their sharp inventory increases.

    Is Another Writedown Coming for BlackBerry? (BBRY)
    From the chart in that article, it looks like BlackBerry's current inventory levels are around historical averages. It is significantly higher than it was two quarters ago, but I'm assuming that's because they were reducing production of BlackBerry 7 devices and hadn't really started on BlackBerry 10 devices at that point. Now you're dealing with three BlackBerry 10 devices .

    It's something to keep an eye on, but doesn't seem to indicate imminent issues. If it spikes up a few hundred million next quarter, then we may be looking at future writedowns.
    dusdal likes this.
    07-03-13 10:25 PM
  7. kfh227's Avatar
    And liquidated play books from inventory.

    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 12:13 AM
  8. MarsupilamiX's Avatar
    I just picked $400 out of the air. Could be $200-$400 I suppose. It's close enough just to talk rough numbers though.
    Avg manufacturing costs for a high-end smartphone, are around the 150-200$ mark.

    Of course this only includes the materials.

    But saying 150-200$ is close to 400$ just to talk about rough numbers, is pretty wrong. Thats a difference of 100%... Not sure how that can be considered "close".

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by MarsupilamiX; 07-04-13 at 01:22 AM.
    07-04-13 12:42 AM
  9. dusdal's Avatar
    I guess all I was suggesting was that the additional $$ may represent more phones if we use $200 cost per.

    Whether this means worry because there are more that might sit in warehouses or they have done their due diligence and are trying to keep up with demand. Who knows?

    Based on how cost efficiently TH has been running things, I would lean towards the latter.

    But it's anyone's guess right now I suppose

    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 12:47 AM
  10. MarsupilamiX's Avatar
    I guess all I was suggesting was that the additional $$ may represent more phones if we use $200 cost per.

    Posted via CB10

    Yes, but this is completely correct, that's the point.
    To suggest that the Q10 costs 400$, is impossible, if the iPhone5 has an avg manufacturing cost of 207$.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ihs...ure-2012-09-25



    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 01:25 AM
  11. dusdal's Avatar
    Definitely.

    So, worrisome? Reason for optimism this quarter?

    Who knows, but I'm excited to find out

    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 01:31 AM
  12. kfh227's Avatar
    Avg manufacturing costs for a high-end smartphone, are around the 150-200$ mark.

    Of course this only includes the materials.

    But saying 150-200$ is close to 400$ just to talk about rough numbers, is pretty wrong. Thats a difference of 100%... Not sure how that can be considered "close".

    Posted via CB10
    Order of magnitude differences matter. $300 would be a better guess than $400 but it really does not matter that much.

    Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.

    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 11:45 AM
  13. the_sleuth's Avatar
    If one is modelling inventories, then add 40 - 50% markup to cost of materials for more accurate assesment.
    Here's what the BlackBerry Z10 costs to make | CrackBerry.com

    So estimate total cost at about $231
    Avg manufacturing costs for a high-end smartphone, are around the 150-200$ mark.

    Of course this only includes the materials.

    But saying 150-200$ is close to 400$ just to talk about rough numbers, is pretty wrong. Thats a difference of 100%... Not sure how that can be considered "close".

    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 12:50 PM

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