1. jaylysf's Avatar
    $15/share would be my guess.

    LWKING likes this.
    08-13-13 03:37 PM
  2. LROBLES46's Avatar
    Someone as any individual?
    Someone as a company?
    Why $15?
    08-13-13 03:39 PM
  3. sleepngbear's Avatar
    My best guess ...

    If someone made a bid for BBRY, how much would the offer be?-tumblr_mebr4abvpj1rlo1q2o1_500.jpg
    Shanerredflag and cjcampbell like this.
    08-13-13 05:03 PM
  4. kfh227's Avatar

    I'd vote against anything under $25

    Posted via CB10
    08-13-13 07:25 PM
  5. chrysaurora's Avatar
    I'll just quote my other post here:
    I think value of BlackBerry WorkSpace app and value of BBM Cross-Platform hasn't been factored in.

    BlackBerry WorkSpaces - companies would be installing this app on their employee's non-BB devices. Android/iPhones. So, even if 75% of all employees decided to use iPhone/Android, it doesn't mean that BlackBerry would lose 75% of its revenue from that company. On the contrary, BlackBerry would continue to make money on non-BB devices as well.

    Yes, there are some other companies in MDM space but nothing comes close to BB WorkSpace app. And BlackBerry doesn't need to do a lot to make it a success. BES is already installed in most F500 companies. Even if 50% of them upgraded to BES 10 / BB WorkSpace app, it'd ensure that BB's enterprise revenue don't decline.

    Cross Platform BBM - BBM is now more than instant-messaging. It has video, voice and (very importantly) channels. Messaging/Voice/Video makes it similar to Skype. Channels makes it similar to Instagram+Twitter.
    • Skype alone was valued at $8.5B when it was bought.
    • Twitter is said to be valued at $11B+.
    • WhatsApp was said to be over $1B too and it doesn't have voice, video; nor does it have channels.

    If cross-platform BBM spreads like wildfire, then BBM alone should command a value that's inbetween Skype/Twitter or perhaps (at best) Skype+Twitter combined. And I think BBM CrossPlatform will indeed spread like wildfire. That's MY big assumption here. If this does not turn out to be true, then following calculations obviously fall flat. But come on, there are over 70M current BBM users. If they all got even 3-4 of their friends to download/install BBM, BBM would cross 300M users in total, in a very very short time.

    So, Cross Platform BBM should (at the very minimum) easily add $10/share value. Similarly, BB WorkSpaces/MDM solution should also add something to book value. Now, a deal is not going to get done overnight. It's atleast 6 months away. So, in these 6 months, BBM would have already spread like wildfire. And BB WorkSpace trial users/customers would have finished their trials and converted into paying customers. So, by December ER, we'd start seeing two things
    1. . Explosive growth of BBM Cross Platform
    2. . Revenues starting to trickle-in from BB WorkSpace/BES MDM

    Most analysts are currently valuing BlackBerry from $10 to $25 without having seen above evidence. So, let's pick $18 as a median book value figure. By December ER, analysts would have seen evidence of BBM growth + revenues from BB WorkSpace, so they'd (naturally) start to factor in these additional factors as well. It'd no longer be vaporware. They'd be able to see evidence of both BBM CrossPlatform's growth + BB WorkSpace adoption. So, it's inevitable that they'd end up adding $10/share (at the very least) to their 'book value' calculations.

    So, from $18, their book-value valuation will jump to $28. At this point, if a company is to purchase BlackBerry, it'd have to offer a premium. Assuming a 50% premium on $28, it becomes $42.

    $42 x 500M shares is only $20 Billion. Google paid $12.5 billion for Motorola Mobility and Motorola Mobility was in a far worse shape and did not have as many assets, secure and global data center, cross platform messenger, etc.

    So, I think if BBM catches like wildfire and even if some of existing BES customers upgrade to BES 10/ BB WorkSpace, the minimum selling price for BlackBerry would be $40+.
    Shanerredflag and jaylysf like this.
    08-13-13 07:50 PM
  6. world boss's Avatar
    My best guess ...

    Click image for larger version. 

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    lol, i logged in to post this. ah well
    08-13-13 08:15 PM
  7. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    Definitely <$12. Probably in the single digits. There is a great disparity between the valuation of shareholders and the general investing community. The announcement mid-quarter further raise suspicions that its financial condition may have deteriorated and this should be reflected accordingly in the share price before negotiating. The media reflects this in the number of articles pointing out that a buyout or a deal is unlikely to occur at this time. I do not see any deal coming into fruition in the near term.
    08-13-13 08:21 PM
  8. pkcable's Avatar
    08-13-13 10:24 PM

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