1. Rooster99's Avatar
    Would that not force the board to sell off the components and thereby return the maximum value to all the shareholders, not just Fairfax? Could we not, as shareholders, just say no?

    To those who are more on top of this than I, is the reasoning shown below faulty?

    As far as I can see, all that's happening with the Fairfax bid is that Prem is averaging down his $/share price big time, at the expense of many other investors. And the board is letting this happen for whatever reason - to please Mike and Prem, because this is the "best" offer they'll get to keep the company whole, etc . But I think that if the company is worth more as parts, then so be it. Return the value to the shareholders. As one who was willing to bet long and hang in there, it's not fair for me to see anyone else get preferential treatment.

    As I very roughly recall from a variety of other posts, RIM has approx $7-$10B in assets if sold in components :
    - $2.6B cash
    - $2-$4B patents
    - $2-3B NOC and BBM
    - $.5-$.75B real estate and misc

    These are all based on memory and there are lots of estimates out there, but I think the rough numbers are reasonable and they completely ignore the cash value of any written off inventory (sell it for $.1 on the $1!). If that's the case, with the Fairfax offer estimated at $4.7B, there's a lot of room for error in the favour of the "non-Fairfax" shareholders.

    Comments? Is there a mechanism to just say no? Does it make sense?

    TIA - R.
    10-01-13 01:21 AM
  2. kevinnugent's Avatar
    There should be a vote. Your problem is you need to own many millions of shares to have a say. The institutional shareholders won't want to continue the bleeding, and will opt for the easy way out. Your best hope is for another bidder to enter the fray. That's a doubtful prospect though I think, because Blackberry's assets are hard to actually value.
    10-01-13 02:17 AM
  3. fin2007's Avatar
    Would that not force the board to sell off the components and thereby return the maximum value to all the shareholders, not just Fairfax? Could we not, as shareholders, just say no?

    To those who are more on top of this than I, is the reasoning shown below faulty?

    As far as I can see, all that's happening with the Fairfax bid is that Prem is averaging down his $/share price big time, at the expense of many other investors. And the board is letting this happen for whatever reason - to please Mike and Prem, because this is the "best" offer they'll get to keep the company whole, etc . But I think that if the company is worth more as parts, then so be it. Return the value to the shareholders. As one who was willing to bet long and hang in there, it's not fair for me to see anyone else get preferential treatment.

    As I very roughly recall from a variety of other posts, RIM has approx $7-$10B in assets if sold in components :
    - $2.6B cash
    - $2-$4B patents
    - $2-3B NOC and BBM
    - $.5-$.75B real estate and misc

    These are all based on memory and there are lots of estimates out there, but I think the rough numbers are reasonable and they completely ignore the cash value of any written off inventory (sell it for $.1 on the $1!). If that's the case, with the Fairfax offer estimated at $4.7B, there's a lot of room for error in the favour of the "non-Fairfax" shareholders.

    Comments? Is there a mechanism to just say no? Does it make sense?

    TIA - R.
    real estate worth way more than that.
    land+building is 1.4B in 10Q, but could be way more than 1.4B
    10-01-13 02:18 AM
  4. greggebhardt's Avatar
    No matter what your figures show there is a finite amount of funds in the liquid form that Blackberry needs to sustain the company. At their rate of burn, time is short. Blackberry will sell but for less than $9 a share.
    10-01-13 04:57 AM
  5. OzarkaTexile's Avatar
    The parts may be worth more than the sum of the whole, but current management has been unwilling to sell the parts. Even if they did, it's hard to imagine a scenario where shareholders get much more than $9 per share.
    10-01-13 06:55 AM
  6. Sporatic's Avatar
    As a shareholder you will have an opportunity to vote, but remember the majority of shares and then some, are possessed by two parties that want the sale, so it's going to be a little tricky to win against them.
    10-01-13 07:03 AM
  7. anon1727506's Avatar
    OP there is no doubt that the "parts" are worth a lot more than what Fairfax is offering.... this is the reason they are making the offer.

    You are leaving out what could be another $1 - $2 Billion in value, all the acquisitions that RIM/BB has made over the last few years - QNX, Certcom, TAT..... And there are some other line items that add to the overall value.

    That said BB is worth a little less everyday, and the longer this uncertainty goes on, the less BB value BlackBerry will have. So what does a NO vote get you? That is the question you have to ask yourself... has BlackBerry shown any signs of being willing to sell assets to raise capital? If they did, how would that add value for shareholders? Where do you see the stock being after another couple of ER like the one they just had?
    10-01-13 08:01 AM
  8. Chicago777Guy's Avatar
    That's why he is buying it...BBRY shareholders are scared and rightfully so because TH has burried it deep under the ground...They will not say no.


    Posted via CB10
    10-01-13 08:02 AM
  9. mset's Avatar
    Part of the realization of value for an acquirer is that he can take a tax loss on certain assets, thereby gaining de facto income which BBRY couldn't realize if they sell the firm themselves.

    Secondly, the fact that they are having difficulty drumming up interest means that your numbers aren't accurate. This isn't meant as an attack; it just means that no one has the right information. There's something else going on. Two big investment banks shopped this company around for a number of months before the Fairfax offer became public and they couldn't find anyone who would take on the whole thing.

    Last, cash burn rate is a big problem, as has been mentioned. An acquirer doesn't have tens of millions in expenses that BBRY has just to keep operating week to week. What you are describing would take a long time. They have thousands of employees. You can't just tell them to not show up the next day.

    The so-called analysts generally don't know a thing, and can safely be ignored. The only people who know what's up are the people who can see the books.
    Last edited by mset; 10-01-13 at 10:16 AM.
    10-01-13 09:35 AM
  10. Lobwedgephil's Avatar
    The below article thinks the actual price will be between $5-$7 dollars a share when all is said and done. Which would be a giant sucker punch to shareholders. Probably not accurate, but can see it happening.

    http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-57605428-92/blackberry-to-go-private-at-$9-per-share-not-so-fast/
    10-01-13 10:02 AM

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