1. sonbuster's Avatar
    How much is BlackBerry worth without handset business?

    Peter Misek explains that BlackBerry is a lucrative company with tremendous upside, even without handset sales
    BBRY: Jefferies and Nomura Go Head to Head on CNBC - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    Let's work out the math from Peter Miseks example. Very conservatively speaking, let's assume BES10 has 50M subscriptions from apple android and BlackBerry. BlackBerry charges $100/year/phone in subs. That's $5B in revenue. Assuming margin is 40% (which is very, very low assumption), profits is $2B/year. # of outstanding shares ~525M.
    EPS = $3.81

    let's give a ridiculously low PE multiple of 7x = $26.66 / share
    ~85% upside.


    again, these are based on extremely low assumptions and targets. Peter Misek is onto something here.

    again...this does account for any, i repeat ANY handset sales.

    BlackBerry bears and shorters always argue about how it's 'too little, too late'; they'll never catch android or apple; handsets are DOA and won't sell. To them just say, it's not just about the handsets, it's about the software and the services.

    BlackBerry has BB10, BES10, QNX and M2M. They will capitalize on all these regardless.
    Last edited by sonbuster; 03-31-13 at 02:05 PM.
    03-31-13 01:31 PM
  2. Iamanonymous62's Avatar
    How much is BlackBerry worth without handset business?

    Peter Misek explains that BlackBerry is a lucrative company with tremendous upside, even without handset sales
    BBRY: Jefferies and Nomura Go Head to Head on CNBC - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    Let's work out the math from Peter Miseks example. Very conservatively speaking, let's assume BES10 has 50M subs from apple android and BlackBerry. BlackBerry charges $100/year/phone in subs. That's $5B in revenue. Assuming margin is 40% (which is very, very low assumption), profits is $2B/year. # of outstanding shares ~525M.
    EPS = $3.81

    let's give a ridiculously low PE multiple of 7x = $26.66 / share
    ~85% upside.


    again, these are based on extremely low assumptions and targets. Peter Misek is onto something here.

    again...this does account for any, i repeat ANY handset sales.

    BlackBerry bears and shorters always argue about how it's 'too little, too late'; they'll never catch android or apple; handsets are DOA and won't sell. To them just say, it's not just about the handsets, it's about the software and the services.

    BlackBerry has BB10, BES10, QNX and M2M. They will capitalize on these regardless.
    Let's assume BES10 has 50m subs????
    03-31-13 01:48 PM
  3. sonbuster's Avatar
    50 million subscribers/subscriptions using BES10
    (apple, android and BlackBerry included).
    03-31-13 02:03 PM
  4. GTiLeo's Avatar
    50 million subscribers/subscriptions using BES10
    (apple, android and BlackBerry included).

    im wondering if BES10 allows for tablets also, i don't see why it can';t and if thats the case a persons iPad could be managed as well as their iPhone for those that carry around a tablet instead of a laptop. if thats the case that that number could be a large under assumption
    sonbuster likes this.
    03-31-13 08:53 PM
  5. sonbuster's Avatar
    excellent point! if it needs to be managed, then it should count as a subscription
    03-31-13 09:21 PM
  6. Munchito1976's Avatar
    I'm pretty sure BES10 can manage tablets. We have iPads that are company issued, and our IT guy was commenting that he wants to deploy BES10 ASAP so he can keep our tablets in check.

    What I'm not sure of is the assumption of 50 million subs. To put that into perspective, the 5000 enterprises piloting BES10 would need to be managing 10,000 devices each.
    sonbuster likes this.
    03-31-13 10:07 PM
  7. sonbuster's Avatar
    I'm pretty sure BES10 can manage tablets. We have iPads that are company issued, and our IT guy was commenting that he wants to deploy BES10 ASAP so he can keep our tablets in check.

    What I'm not sure of is the assumption of 50 million subs. To put that into perspective, the 5000 enterprises piloting BES10 would need to be managing 10,000 devices each.
    as per the q4 ER, i think that number is at 8000 and increasing.
    03-31-13 11:08 PM
  8. Mange Schillis's Avatar
    How much is BlackBerry worth without handset business?

    Peter Misek explains that BlackBerry is a lucrative company with tremendous upside, even without handset sales
    BBRY: Jefferies and Nomura Go Head to Head on CNBC - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    Let's work out the math from Peter Miseks example. Very conservatively speaking, let's assume BES10 has 50M subscriptions from apple android and BlackBerry. BlackBerry charges $100/year/phone in subs. That's $5B in revenue. Assuming margin is 40% (which is very, very low assumption), profits is $2B/year. # of outstanding shares ~525M.
    EPS = $3.81

    let's give a ridiculously low PE multiple of 7x = $26.66 / share
    ~85% upside.


    again, these are based on extremely low assumptions and targets. Peter Misek is onto something here.

    again...this does account for any, i repeat ANY handset sales.

    BlackBerry bears and shorters always argue about how it's 'too little, too late'; they'll never catch android or apple; handsets are DOA and won't sell. To them just say, it's not just about the handsets, it's about the software and the services.

    BlackBerry has BB10, BES10, QNX and M2M. They will capitalize on all these regardless.
    Agreed almost everyone misses this completely, it's worth more than the handset business today. I'm surprise that in particular the shorts seem to miss this also.

    Regarding the yearly charge I think it's only $50 per year for Blackberry devices though.

    I like the Misek comment regarding BES that "they do it better, cheaper, and faster".
    Last edited by Mange Schillis; 04-01-13 at 04:02 AM.
    sonbuster likes this.
    04-01-13 03:51 AM
  9. tiziano27's Avatar
    Some or most of those 5000 enterprises piloting BES 10 could chose a competing alternative.
    What are the alternatives to BES 10?
    04-01-13 04:43 PM
  10. theRock1975's Avatar
    50 million subscribers/subscriptions using BES10
    (apple, android and BlackBerry included).
    People are soo underestimating Blackberry's potential. Sure there's BES10. There's also M2M, there's also BB10 licensing, there's a new app/movie/music ecosystem.. They own enterprise security and can command a higher premium for the services.

    Good move buying Certicom, Nortel LTE patents, QNX, TAT, and all the others.. This is going to be a good fight!
    sonbuster likes this.
    04-01-13 05:16 PM
  11. rdcanuck's Avatar
    This thread reflects my own analysis and consensus from quite a while ago. The biggest hurdle to acting on it was whether or not BlackBerry could execute the launch of the new platform without delay, burning all their cash, or being taken over. Those were all big IFs in my books up until about December. Every month since then, those risks, IMO, have drastically been reduced and so I have bought long into the company.
    I could be very wrong, but I figure that there is no way I am not making money with BlackBerry in the future as an investment regardless with what happens with the short term phone market. It seems that most analysts are stuck on the BlackBerry versus iphone story. Not many analysts are seeing what is going on in BlackBerry land but I like what I see.

    Every markets needs willing sellers as well as buyers.


    Like I said, just my opinion.

    Posted via CB10
    sonbuster likes this.
    04-01-13 07:11 PM
  12. sonbuster's Avatar
    Some or most of those 5000 enterprises piloting BES 10 could chose a competing alternative.
    What are the alternatives to BES 10?
    Airwatch and Good are 2 examples
    04-01-13 07:44 PM
  13. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I'm curious...how long did it take for the nay sayers to go away in Apples story?

    Posted via CB10
    04-01-13 08:46 PM
  14. tiziano27's Avatar
    Airwatch and Good are 2 examples
    I was searching and found many others:

    Microsoft Intune
    Citrix ZenPrise
    McAfee EMM
    Symantec Mobile Management
    SAP Afaria
    MaaS360
    ..between many: Comparison of MDM Providers | Enterprise iOS

    Given such an atomized market, I think a good case is needed to say BES 10 will become a dominant player and issue millions of licenses.
    04-01-13 08:48 PM
  15. Sqoon's Avatar
    Considering that BlackBerry has an amazing reputation in this area of their business, they will have a much easier time becoming a market leader.


    Posted via CB10
    04-02-13 09:33 AM

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