[heymaggie]

The price of the stock in the near future is going to depend on the breakup price not earnings.

[mset]

The price of the stock in the near future is going to depend on the breakup price not earnings.

Well, it all depends on where they are in the negotiations with potential buyers, who will likely already know what the ER is going to look like. Lets say things actually aren't close with Prem Watsa & Co. The breakup price hasn't been agreed on. If there's insufficient information out there, the ER could conceivably cause a small selloff. A private equity firm could then start to accumulate a position at a way lower cost basis than Prem has, and make a play for the company.

I'm not saying this is likely. I assume there are firms out there that are privy to their internals and would step in to buy in case of weakness after an ER. But the fact is, we (those of us out here) can't know.

[m1a1mg]

mset, if I'm wanting to buy BBRY and already know the numbers, wouldn't it be smarter to wait for the ER and subsequent drop to buy? Why pay a premium now when it's been pumped by news?

[greggebhardt]

The price of the stock in the near future is going to depend on the breakup price not earnings.

It all depends on which comes first. We all know the ER is not going to be pretty but at $10-$11 a share, I do not see BBRY going ALOT lower but it will go lower. If the sales goes through before the ER the price will be accordingly as the buyer will for sure know the facts before they purchase, unlike US!

[notfanboy]

These comments remind me of something I wrote elsewhere:

For the next remaining days until the quarterly report, this stock will be fascinating to watch. It's like a game of chicken, where two cars drive towards each other in a collision course and you wait to see who swerves first.

If we exclude insiders who know if there will be an upcoming buyout, partnership, or whatever, here is the situation as seen by the market. BBRY's price is increasing on rumors of a buyout, not because of any news. With each passing day, the window for such a rumor being confirmed before the ER keeps shrinking. The general consensus is that it will be a poor earnings report. People will be wanting to reduce their exposure to a repeat of June 28 by selling before the ER. Thus the game of chicken is set.

As long as traders think that other people think the the rumors are real, then they buy (greater fool theory). But they have to guess at what point those other people will decide that the rumor isn't going to materialize, and start selling before that happens. No one wants to end up being the greater fool. This is a fascinating situation, and it should be educational to watch regardless of whether you're a bear or a bull.

[ron4540]

Guess for price after ER? --One possible scenario: Stock down another 40%; hope for buyout fades; cash bleeds.

[offyoutoddle]

I always thought that Mergers and Acquisitions are carried out in the utmost secrecy. I can't help but wonder if we are all just wildly guessing completely incorrectly, and what will come to pass will not bear any relation to the elaborate fictions we are building down here.

[mset]

mset, if I'm wanting to buy BBRY and already know the numbers, wouldn't it be smarter to wait for the ER and subsequent drop to buy? Why pay a premium now when it's been pumped by news?

Assuming the 'I' in this quote is hypothetical, I'm not sure I understand the question. If you're an insider and know the numbers are going to miss, you would definitely not be buying ahead of the ER (more likely shorting through one of your offshore accounts).

In the post above, I suggested that a private equity firm could accumulate after a selloff if the ER causes weakness.

In addition, I'm not sure I would characterize BBRY's current price as 'pumped by news'.

Can you restate the question?

[mset]

I always thought that Mergers and Acquisitions are carried out in the utmost secrecy. I can't help but wonder if we are all just wildly guessing completely incorrectly, and what will come to pass will not bear any relation to the elaborate fictions we are building down here.

As I'm sure you're aware, information is extremely hard to contain. It may not filter down here, but it spreads among those in the business. For those of us down here, that's where TA comes in... but I'd better not open that can of worms in yet another thread : )

[m1a1mg]

Assuming the 'I' in this quote is hypothetical, I'm not sure I understand the question. If you're an insider and know the numbers are going to miss, you would definitely not be buying ahead of the ER (more likely shorting through one of your offshore accounts).

In the post above, I suggested that a private equity firm could accumulate after a selloff if the ER causes weakness.

In addition, I'm not sure I would characterize BBRY's current price as 'pumped by news'.

Can you restate the question?

No need. I think we agree. I just misread your other post.