[m1a1mg]

So, only 23 days until our next Black Friday. How bad will the numbers be?

Last ER, I had my head firmly in the sand regarding BBRY. I trusted the good news folks. Now, I'm tempering my thoughts. I've seen too much stating that BBRY will miss badly. Including this piece from today. The idea of a write-down on the Z10 scares me. I'm down ~$4 per share, and I'm quite frankly looking for $12.50 to get out, but I'd rather lose $4 than $8.

Another negative piece came across the transom this morning from Paul Peterson with boutique research firm BlueFin Research Partners. Peterson asserts there has been substantial cuts to production of the BB10 devices, and he expects a write-down of inventory is in BlackBerry�s future:

If there was any hope that Blackberry sales were going to take hold with the Q10 and Q5 launches after the failed Z10 intro, that optimism now appears to have faded. The BBRY component supply chain has experienced massive cuts in the last few weeks, with some suppliers seeing multiple rounds of reductions according to our checks. This is the third round of forecast reductions in the last four months, and a clear signal that the Q series is not going to salvage the BB10 family in our view. We believe current fiscal year forecasts are less than half of management�s initial expectations. In fact, our checks indicate that some suppliers are seeing close to zero demand from BBRY in the next several months due to bulging component and finished goods inventories. In our March 13th BBRY Supply Chain Update, we highlighted a surging supply chain prior to the Z10 launch that was indicative of a management team that was �all in� for the BB10 launches, while noting their less than stellar track record: �It goes without saying that BBRY has fumbled more than a few forecasts in the recent past. Time will tell whether management is on target (or not) this time around.� Clearly management was very far from the target this time around. In the company�s last fiscal quarter, BBRY inventories grew nearly 50% to $887M as Z10 sales disappointed, while the company supported the Q10 and prepared for the upcoming Q5 launch. We think inventories have ballooned even further this quarter, with Q Series demand disappointing as well. Our checks indicate that BBRY has amassed significant component and finished goods internal inventories, while many carriers and retailers are not restocking. The executive in charge of the supply chain operations was dismissed recently, evidently the scapegoat for the company�s inventory woes. As Yogi Berra infamously once said, �this looks like D�j� vu all over again.� Last year, the Bold 9900 failed to live up to BBRY�s expectations and the company took a huge inventory write off on Blackberry handset and Playbook inventory. This year it�s likely to happen again with the BB10 models. The fate of BBRY hardware sales depended on the market acceptance of the Q Series to leverage their existing QWERTY base, and the lack of meaningful traction likely means that this story doesn�t end well for BBRY as a standalone hardware provider.

[lmsilvam]

When there's smoke, there's fire... and there's been too much smoke and too thick.
I'd give it until the 12th when "something" is happening, whatever it is - partnership announcement or BBM launch. My hunch is stock won't get any higher than it will (hopefully) then. Black Friday will definitely be really dark.

[offyoutoddle]

I was always told there is no such thing as a stupid question, only a stupid answer. I was also told that better to keep ones mouth shut and be thought of a fool than to open your mouth and confirm it. Constantly trying to balance this is the bane of my life, which means I cannot avoid this one and I apologise in advance. Can you please tell me what ER stands for?

[lmsilvam]

That would be the Earnings Report.

[offyoutoddle]

That would be the Earnings Report.

thank you for enlightening me, and for sparing my feelings in your response style too

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

As far as I know... and I don't follow BBRY the stock all that closely. There hasn't been an adjusted earnings guidance, and I know they have issued them in the past when they were below the posted mark. But it isn't a requirement...

It is going to be bad because Thor warned that they were in the growth phase of their PLAN. Just not sure that consumers understood that as part of the plan they were suppose to be buying BlackBerry's - Thor might want to let them know, it seems as if that hasn't been going according to the plan.

We don't really know if Bad is going to be at the levels that Thor warned about, or if there has been a total collapse of the Launch as some indicators seem to be suggesting.

I'm personally thinking it is going to be pretty bad, but that they will be as vague as they are legally allowed - Devices BB10 and BBOS will all get lumped together, seems like they said they weren't going to report subscribers numbers anymore, so who knows what we will find out other than the fact that earning are going to be down, and they will for the first time really go into the red for this quarter with nothing but the "cost" of "building" the new platform to account for it.

[lc474]

My guess is 1.8 bb10 shipped, 4 million legacy, and 40,000 play books shipped. Loss of $300 million for the quarter

[kevxn]

The earnings should be pretty bad given the company now is on sale.

Hey it does not matter that much since I am loving my Z10 more every day. I just hope whoever will purchase BlackBerry don't discontinue BB10, which is a really great platform, the best in my humble opinion.

Posted via CB10

[richc3]

I assume we'll get the Venezuelan money on the books for this quarter, which was missing in the last. That made the previous quarter look worse than it really was and should dampen part of the blow for this one.

Kantar reports are suggesting we are seeing some marketshare gains in various markets, so it's possible that BBOS7 didn't decline this quarter as much as previously. Alternatively, you can spin it and say that BB10 is selling better than expected -- likely aided by some price drops.

In all this though, probably lost quite a bit of money. I wouldn't say more than 100 mill though, but we'll see.

[nquyen]

1.2 m BB10 or less.

[birdman_38]

With BlackBerry now looking to accelerate it's sale, things must be quite bleak. Unless a deal is struck between now and then, the 27th is going to be quite a painful day.

[notfanboy]

Boy that sounds worse than I expected.

OP could you please provide the link to the quoted article?

[m1a1mg]

Boy that sounds worse than I expected.

OP could you please provide the link to the quoted article?

Part of this:

BBRY Up 4%: Lenovo Speculation, Sale Talk Trumps Estimate Cuts - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

[offyoutoddle]

Part of this:

BBRY Up 4%: Lenovo Speculation, Sale Talk Trumps Estimate Cuts - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

With it's links to China, in a similar vein to Huwei, would Lenovo not be a source of concern to the Canadian government as a buyer maybe?

one thing is certain - i pity those that work for Blackberry currently. Here we all are worrying about our stupid phones, the workers must be panicking!

[cgk]

How bad will the ER be?

I am guessing it will be something like the following:

You find yourself in a bar with an in his prime Mike Tyson, after having a few drinks, you decide to question his parentage and make lurid suggestions about his mother and farm yard animals. Mike moves across the bard towards you... maybe he is going to buy you a drink?

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

With it's links to China, in a similar vein to Huwei, would Lenovo not be a source of concern to the Canadian government as a buyer maybe?

one thing is certain - i pity those that work for Blackberry currently. Here we all are worrying about our stupid phones, the workers must be panicking!

There is a difference in selling a company that utilizes natural resources in the ground that someone will want - the blocked mining company buyout. And a Tech Company that is slowly dieing and will eventually just disappear if someone doesn't step in, I don't see the Canadian Government getting involved at all. As for the US Gov and security concerns... most everything is already made in China anyway, they might require that the BES servers at the NSA be the only ones used for devices needing security.

Panic.... I bet every IT department in the world is looking at just how exposed they are right now! No BlackBerry isn't just go to turn the power off tomorrow, but that doesn't mean you wait until they do to figure out how you will need to respond. Or that you don't start limiting your exposure today... bet sales of BES10 Platforms has dried up over the last few weeks. Stability is a big part of being Secure!

[Eumaeus]

Stability is a big part of being Secure!

This might be the most profound sentence I've read on Crackberry, ever.

[drrobert_Taco]

Panic.... I bet every IT department in the world is looking at just how exposed they are right now! No BlackBerry isn't just go to turn the power off tomorrow, but that doesn't mean you wait until they do to figure out how you will need to respond. Or that you don't start limiting your exposure today... bet sales of BES10 Platforms has dried up over the last few weeks. Stability is a big part of being Secure!

This is likely the reason for having the whole sale process over and done with by November, I'd like to hope this is "rather than" the theory that the urgency relates to the financials, but it is probably only "in addition to".

[lnichols]

They will not be announcing subscriber numbers this time, and I don't know if they will do a breakout of BBOS vs BB10 sales either. The total number of devices sold will be 1 to 2 million less than last time and it will be a blood bath for the stock unless they announce a purchaser before or during the call.

[Sith_Apprentice]

My guess is 1.8 bb10 shipped, 4 million legacy, and 40,000 play books shipped. Loss of $300 million for the quarter

ouch.. that would be terrible. 2.5m shipped would be the bare minimum I would think (Q5 launched, Z10/Q10 fully available), 4 mil legacy probably right on, doubt they would report PB at that number, and the loss hopefully is less than that somewhere ~100m. I also think their cash position will have deteriorated instead of increased, which will be the start of the trend

I do believe the ER will be bad, but the guidance they give will be even worse

[offyoutoddle]

There is a difference in selling a company that utilizes natural resources in the ground that someone will want - the blocked mining company buyout. And a Tech Company that is slowly dieing and will eventually just disappear if someone doesn't step in, I don't see the Canadian Government getting involved at all. As for the US Gov and security concerns... most everything is already made in China anyway, they might require that the BES servers at the NSA be the only ones used for devices needing security.

Panic.... I bet every IT department in the world is looking at just how exposed they are right now! No BlackBerry isn't just go to turn the power off tomorrow, but that doesn't mean you wait until they do to figure out how you will need to respond. Or that you don't start limiting your exposure today... bet sales of BES10 Platforms has dried up over the last few weeks. Stability is a big part of being Secure!

I just noticed Simon's article on the main page discussing a Lenovo buy out possiblity - he seemed to list it as a valid concern though.

[21stNow]

I was always told there is no such thing as a stupid question, only a stupid answer. I was also told that better to keep ones mouth shut and be thought of a fool than to open your mouth and confirm it. Constantly trying to balance this is the bane of my life, which means I cannot avoid this one and I apologise in advance. Can you please tell me what ER stands for?

Don't worry. I thought that they were referring to the Emergency Room when I started to read the thread.

[howarmat]

ouch.. that would be terrible. 2.5m shipped would be the bare minimum I would think (Q5 launched, Z10/Q10 fully available), 4 mil legacy probably right on, doubt they would report PB at that number, and the loss hopefully is less than that somewhere ~100m. I also think their cash position will have deteriorated instead of increased, which will be the start of the trend

I do believe the ER will be bad, but the guidance they give will be even worse

I dont think there will be any guidance especially if buyout rumors are true before Nov. They themselves might not have any idea whats going to happen.

I expect numbers worse than last quarter but that is about all i am going to go with. To much going on to get a feel of just how bad

[silversun10]

Is the ER still relevant? isn't it all about what deal they are working on?

[sentimentGX4]

Is the ER still relevant? isn't it all about what deal they are working on?

It's only relevant in the sense of "How much cash did BBRY lose per share?" Device sales are relevant indirectly from the perspective of "How much will BBRY have to write off?"

Do note that I am not suggesting that BBRY will have large losses nor have to write off any BB10 devices; but, in the case that it does, it should be expected that the amount will be almost instantly deducted from the share price (and then some) as much of the value left in BBRY shares is in BBRY's current assets.