1. sonbuster's Avatar
    Gus Papageorgiou - said he expects the company sold about 1M BB 10 devices in the 4Q ended March 2. AT&T to start selling BlackBerry Z10 devices on March 22 | Reuters

    "We believe the Street is pricing in such a weak fiscal 2014 that BB10 does not need to be an outstanding success to surprise," Scotiabank analyst Gus Papageorgiou said in a note to clients on Monday.

    Papageorgiou, who has a "sector outperform" rating on the stock, said he expects the company sold about 1 million BlackBerry 10 devices in the quarter ended March 2.

    "Gross margins should begin to move higher as more Z10s enter the mix," he said. "Next quarter will be the true test as BB10 launches in the U.S."
    03-11-13 12:32 PM
  2. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    Good to see some analysts coming out with the higher guesses.
    mikeycollins13 likes this.
    03-11-13 12:45 PM
  3. Rickster1's Avatar
    A million units over a month would be pretty good. Given the z10 has launched in over 20 markets, say 50,000 units sold for each country and you get 1 mill units. With US launch pending, should be able to double that pretty quickly. Have to see what traction there is though. My anecdotal view is overall smart phone sales have slowed. I think we will see Apple post significantly lower sales quarter over quarter when they next report. Think apple stock has fallen alot....just wait, its going to get ugly in apple land as the fruit falls from the tree. With that said, I don't expect BB to have astounding sales numbers over the next year but 10 to 12 million z and q 10 devices will be good. That is until the cheaper handsets arrive. Just my guesstimate!!!
    03-11-13 01:18 PM
  4. BBNation's Avatar
    Based on reserch, posts, news, my estimate is between 1 to 1.5 millions z10, est 6 mill BB7s, total 7-8 mil
    BB7 low margin upfront but monthly revenue including existing install base, millions in USA.
    Z10 upfront margin, no monthly revenue.
    03-11-13 01:33 PM
  5. GTiLeo's Avatar
    Good to see some analysts coming out with the higher guesses.
    indeed yet other scotia advisors are sayign that the stock won't go past $25, my parents were resently told this
    03-11-13 04:39 PM
  6. sonbuster's Avatar
    a million units sold should push this stock into the 40's
    03-11-13 06:57 PM
  7. bobshine's Avatar
    a million units sold should push this stock into the 40's
    In order to push it above 40... BlackBerry need a huge surprise. I would say way over a million. I think 1 million might push the stock up to near 20.

    Posted via CB10
    03-11-13 07:07 PM
  8. sonbuster's Avatar
    In order to push it above 40... BlackBerry need a huge surprise. I would say way over a million. I think 1 million might push the stock up to near 20.

    Posted via CB10
    also selling 1.3M/month puts BlackBerry in the black Only 1.3 Million BlackBerry 10 Devices Would Push BlackBerry into the Black, says Analyst - N4BB
    remember this 1M does not include a lot of countries eg. US and Indonesia.
    03-11-13 07:23 PM
  9. Andrew4life's Avatar
    In order to push it above 40... BlackBerry need a huge surprise. I would say way over a million. I think 1 million might push the stock up to near 20.

    Posted via CB10
    Agreed. Sales won't really matter that much for Q4 other than to keep the stock stable. 1Million, 2 million, thats all chump change since people know that there is a lot of pent up demand and they expect the high initial sales. The important thing is to sustain these sales and to have a strong Q1 with the US launch.

    I don't foresee it going beyond $20-$25 until at least next earnings unless more sell through numbers are released before then. Or they surprise us with a new product, new offering, or new anything.
    Of course, I'd be very happy if it jumped to $40 after earnings.
    03-11-13 07:27 PM
  10. Bbnivende's Avatar
    Based on reserch, posts, news, my estimate is between 1 to 1.5 millions z10, est 6 mill BB7s, total 7-8 mil
    BB7 low margin upfront but monthly revenue including existing install base, millions in USA.
    Z10 upfront margin, no monthly revenue.
    I would say between 4 and 5 million BB7. Just a guess . Market share started to drop in the third world and except for UK very weak here .
    03-11-13 08:29 PM
  11. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    I figure 1.5 million Z10s and 9 million other BBs.

    Let's not forget the BES sales...AND the app sales...
    fedakd likes this.
    03-11-13 08:36 PM
  12. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    In order to push it above 40... BlackBerry need a huge surprise. I would say way over a million. I think 1 million might push the stock up to near 20.

    Posted via CB10
    Bear in mind we are talking about the quarter ended March 2nd. 1 mil to that date would be excellent, actually.

    Posted via CB10
    sonbuster likes this.
    03-11-13 08:39 PM
  13. Dapper37's Avatar
    He believes 1 million sold, I agree but believe there may be room for some up side!
    Now the shipped number is what matters to the bottom line! im starting to think it could come in a 2 to 2.5 million.
    03-12-13 04:26 AM
  14. kfh227's Avatar
    a million units sold should push this stock into the 40's
    nice!
    03-12-13 05:39 PM
  15. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    also selling 1.3M/month puts BlackBerry in the black Only 1.3 Million BlackBerry 10 Devices Would Push BlackBerry into the Black, says Analyst - N4BB
    remember this 1M does not include a lot of countries eg. US and Indonesia.
    This is an analyst's guess ...
    03-12-13 05:40 PM
  16. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    I figure 1.5 million Z10s and 9 million other BBs.

    Let's not forget the BES sales...AND the app sales...
    For the quarter from beginning of Dec to beginning of March? I'd be quite surprised (pleasantly) if they announce 7 million phones shipped. (6 million BBOS, 1 million Z10). the BlackBerry OS line would have taken a double wammy of being extra old and the world knowing exactly when BlackBerry 10 was coming out. And while it's in 20+ markets now, it wasn't for most of February, the last month of the quarter.

    App World is probably a 'break-even' prospect at best that they need to do in order to sell phones. Software sales (ie. BES) typically accounts for little revenue relative to hardware and services.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-12-13 05:43 PM
  17. fedakd's Avatar
    I think you're right on the money here; however, I think shipped units of Z10s will be higher as a result of recent run-rate increases.

    I figure 1.5 million Z10s and 9 million other BBs.

    Let's not forget the BES sales...AND the app sales...
    03-12-13 05:53 PM
  18. AVPTI's Avatar
    I really don't know what to expect for Q4.

    Supply has been an issue, Thor said to have fixed that.

    1 million would be pretty crazy, but personally, I expect to see a slightly smaller number due to supply constraints.
    03-12-13 05:56 PM
  19. jimmyt1's Avatar
    The reaction to the sales mix will be interesting. Certainly room for upside surprise from the z10 but the real surprise could come from the old lineup. Are a lot of BlackBerry customers holding off purchase for the z10/q10 launch causing a hit to q4? And with that, why kind of drop off in related recurring revenue? I'd be shocked to see the stock above 20 (tho there is the wildcard of the significant short interest), as these transitions can be messy in the short term. But beyond that, I'm very excited about bbry prospects.

    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-12-13 10:19 PM
  20. Omnitech's Avatar
    1 Million confirmed orders to a SINGLE customer, shipping NOW.

    Hehehe... and stock only at 15 or so, amazing..
    03-13-13 03:06 PM
  21. jimmyt1's Avatar
    1 Million confirmed orders to a SINGLE customer, shipping NOW.

    Hehehe... and stock only at 15 or so, amazing..
    I was looking at a monthly chart, and in a really overheated run, bbry could get to 30 to $40 easily and still maintain its long term downtrend. So even if the naysayers are ultimately right (which I don't expect), there is still plenty of upside potential in the stock.

    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-13-13 04:24 PM

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