11-08-15 01:46 PM
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  1. mset's Avatar
    Financial estimates are 51.855 million shares at an average Cdn share price of $14.67 for a total investment of $760.891 million. Purchased between Sept 30, 2010 and Sept 30, 2012. Largest single investment was 25.006 million shares at $7.52. Original purchase was 2.065 million shares at $50.10.
    Citation please? I wouldn't mind having an accurate number but we need a citation. Possibly Watsa acquired some recently which lowered the cost basis from the numbers that were accurate a few months back?
    09-24-13 07:34 PM
  2. PeterC4's Avatar
    Citation please? I wouldn't mind having an accurate number but we need a citation. Possibly Watsa acquired some recently which lowered the cost basis from the numbers that were accurate a few months back?
    BlackBerry Limited (TSX:BB) > Public Ownership > Detailed > History - Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel Ltd.
    S&P Capital IQ, McGraw Hill Financial.

    It is an estimate for the each of the relative quarters in which the transactions took place, so there is likely some variation as to the actual date. It is a downward trend in transaction value, no doubt. There are no transactions listed between December 31, 2012 and as of today. Percentage ownership shows10.064% unchanged since Sept 30, 2012. In fairness average could be higher if purchases were skewed towards the higher end of the pricing curve throughout the period where the transaction took place.
    Last edited by PeterC4; 09-24-13 at 10:42 PM.
    09-24-13 10:09 PM
  3. PeterC4's Avatar
    Fairfax will get the financing. Think about it for a minute. They've offered $4.7B. For that they'll get $2.6B cash so in effect they're paying $2.1B. But as I understand it Fairfax is rolling their 10% shareholding into the deal so that's another near $500M knocked off the financing requirements so now they only need to find $1.6B.
    .
    But the exact amount of cash on the balance sheet by November is not known and they are going to need some of that cash to effect a restructuring, so I don't think you can satisfy the purchase price with all of the cash on hand. Maybe some, but I bet you will need a fair chunk. And the if you exit some markets the write-off of certain assets and layoffs will take its toll.
    09-24-13 10:49 PM
  4. mset's Avatar
    BlackBerry Limited (TSX:BB) > Public Ownership > Detailed > History - Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel Ltd.
    S&P Capital IQ, McGraw Hill Financial.

    It is an estimate for the each of the relative quarters in which the transactions took place, so there is likely some variation as to the actual date. It is a downward trend in transaction value, no doubt. There are no transactions listed between December 31, 2012 and as of today. Percentage ownership shows10.064%
    Thanks, but by citation I meant a link where we could see the number you mentioned. The number I'm using is the one that's been used for the past month or so by the majority of analysts and talking heads (CNBC used it tonight for example). Not to say they know Prem's positions, but it's the same number being used by everyone. As I said, if there's a better number, I welcome the proof.
    09-25-13 01:37 AM
  5. jojo beaconsfield's Avatar
    Damm right I'm angry!! It,s only money, but I have to say that Prem is rocking the boat and making waves which will definetly bring in other offers, and a fair price will be paid,why not? BB is a great company and I'm sure others feel that way,so step up to the plate and play the game.Starting bid 4.7 billion,do I hear ......
    09-25-13 05:52 AM
  6. PeterC4's Avatar
    Thanks, but by citation I meant a link where we could see the number you mentioned. The number I'm using is the one that's been used for the past month or so by the majority of analysts and talking heads (CNBC used it tonight for example). Not to say they know Prem's positions, but it's the same number being used by everyone. As I said, if there's a better number, I welcome the proof.
    You have to be a subscriber to S&P Capital IQ to get it. The $17 seems reasonable since the quarterly published amounts after each acquisition come out to almost $15. Capital IQ does not list the exact date of acquisition so there could be a difference.
    09-25-13 07:15 AM
  7. tstrike34's Avatar
    Given the investment IBM has made into BBRY, I would not be surprised if Big Blue tried their hand at acquiring BBRY.

    Bluewashing the company would be relatively easy, and their uber strong services division could take full advantage of channels BBRY has (not to mention the NOC which is a crown jewel of BBRY's assets). They would probably pawn off the hardware division to Lenovo under their inter-local agreement (with consent of US and Canada).

    I can see IBM coming in as a surprise bidder. It would be good for BBRY.
    09-25-13 07:16 AM
  8. kevinnugent's Avatar
    Given the investment IBM has made into BBRY, I would not be surprised if Big Blue tried their hand at acquiring BBRY.

    Bluewashing the company would be relatively easy, and their uber strong services division could take full advantage of channels BBRY has (not to mention the NOC which is a crown jewel of BBRY's assets). They would probably pawn off the hardware division to Lenovo under their inter-local agreement (with consent of US and Canada).

    I can see IBM coming in as a surprise bidder. It would be good for BBRY.
    I could see this being great for Bb enterprise. Consumers would miss out, but I think Blackberry's consumer honeymoon is over. b2b is where they can survive if anywhere.
    09-25-13 07:23 AM
  9. PeterC4's Avatar
    Thanks, but by citation I meant a link where we could see the number you mentioned. The number I'm using is the one that's been used for the past month or so by the majority of analysts and talking heads (CNBC used it tonight for example). Not to say they know Prem's positions, but it's the same number being used by everyone. As I said, if there's a better number, I welcome the proof.
    I found it. Page 9 of the 2012 Fairfax Annual Report discloses the $17 average cost in the text. You have to look for it as it is not disclosed seperately in the notes to the financial statements.
    danprown likes this.
    09-25-13 08:50 AM
  10. njblackberry's Avatar
    Given the investment IBM has made into BBRY, I would not be surprised if Big Blue tried their hand at acquiring BBRY.

    Bluewashing the company would be relatively easy, and their uber strong services division could take full advantage of channels BBRY has (not to mention the NOC which is a crown jewel of BBRY's assets). They would probably pawn off the hardware division to Lenovo under their inter-local agreement (with consent of US and Canada).

    I can see IBM coming in as a surprise bidder. It would be good for BBRY.
    Maybe - IBM is already in the MDM space and they have allowed employees to use non BBs for quite some time now (the ones I know have iPhones) - this is a possibility but I don't think it will happen.
    09-25-13 09:09 AM
  11. dad2bandm's Avatar
    The offer price of the Fairfax deal, is currently more than what the stock price sits at, so I'm not sure why anyone would expect a much higher price to be offered? The "market" values Blackberry lower, than the Fairfax offer.
    09-25-13 09:12 AM
  12. anon1727506's Avatar
    Given the investment IBM has made into BBRY, I would not be surprised if Big Blue tried their hand at acquiring BBRY.

    Bluewashing the company would be relatively easy, and their uber strong services division could take full advantage of channels BBRY has (not to mention the NOC which is a crown jewel of BBRY's assets). They would probably pawn off the hardware division to Lenovo under their inter-local agreement (with consent of US and Canada).

    I can see IBM coming in as a surprise bidder. It would be good for BBRY.
    Not sure why BlackBerry's NOC would be the crown jewel, without a growing or stable user base. Yes right now it is making money, but 6 Months, 12 Months, 18 Months.... there is an expiration date on the revenues from the NOC and it relies on SOMEONE building devices of some type to use it.

    When you really start looking at BlackBerry's assets and how they are adversely affected by the fact that the hardware business is disappearing.... you start to see that maybe FairFax isn't getting all that good of a deal. Cash and Patents ARE the only assets that have current and long term value.
    09-25-13 09:14 AM
  13. michaelshawn's Avatar
    Sure when you purposely bring down the value of the company.

    Posted from My all in one beauty Z10
    09-25-13 09:21 AM
  14. chr1sny's Avatar
    This lowball offer is just establishing a floor .. hopefully, the serious players now have a chance to move in with higher bids, and still walk away with assets at super discount prices ...
    Stock is trading at 8.19. What happened to your floor?
    09-25-13 09:40 AM
  15. anon1727506's Avatar
    Stock is trading at 8.19. What happened to your floor?
    Any shareholders going to be angry when the "deal" drops to only what funding Fairfax can come up with?? $8 a share... maybe $7 a share... I bet you'll really like $6 a share?
    kevinnugent likes this.
    09-25-13 10:07 AM
  16. cgk's Avatar
    Stock is trading at 8.19. What happened to your floor?
    I think he meant the floor of the basement...
    09-25-13 10:19 AM
  17. chr1sny's Avatar
    I think he meant the floor of the basement...
    Similar to the chief chartist this poster often posts his opinions as fact. Similarly this poster has an awful track record when making prognostications about blackberry.
    09-25-13 10:44 AM
  18. Mathias1's Avatar
    Did anyone else notice the change in revenue recognition for hardware on the preliminary q2 report?

    "For the second quarter, the Company expects to recognize hardware revenue on approximately 3.7 million BlackBerry smartphones. Most of the units recognized are BlackBerry 7 devices, in part because certain BlackBerry 10 devices that were shipped in the quarter will not be recognized until those devices are sold through to end customers."

    From the above quote we see that they are only recognizing sales that were made to the end user.

    However, in the past they used to recognize revenue as the number of phones shipped to carriers. Here is an example from the Q1 report:

    "During the quarter, the Company shipped 6.8 million BlackBerry smartphones and approximately 100,000 BlackBerry PlayBook tablets."

    So from here we can see that Blackberry suddenly changed they way they recognize sales.

    Furthermore, in the q2 report, Blackberry says that they actually sold 5.9 million smartphones to end consumers but they couldn't recognize that as revenue since it included sales from shipments that were made last quarter which were already recognized as revenue in the previous quarter.
    here is the quote from the Q2 report:
    "During the second quarter, approximately 5.9 million BlackBerry smartphones were sold through to end customers, which included shipments made prior to the second quarter and which reduced the Companys inventory in channel."

    Therefore, it is because blackberry changed the way they recognize revenue that sales seem so low. If Blackberry used a consistent method of revenue recognition all along its numbers would be a lot better.

    For example if blackberry just used sales to end consumers all along then they would have reported sales of 5.9 million phones in Q2 instead of 3.7 million. That's more than 2 million phones that are not accounted for. That most likely would have put blackberry at a profit for Q2 since they were only down by 265 million (also assuming that you ignore the exaggerated inventory write-down).

    Does anyone else see this?
    Why would blackberry suddenly change their accounting practices now?? especially when the change would make them look even worse at a time like this.?

    And all this happened right before the buyout??
    09-25-13 11:05 AM
  19. vettsting's Avatar
    I am a little annoyed... a little, because even though I don't mind losing what I invested, since it won't burn me all that much, it still irks me that I am losing. What I don't understand is why an insurance/casualty and property company has 10% interest and using their sig. Influence to buy the company? Also considering when they bought the shares they were expecting Lazaridis to stick around but 14 months later retired. After losing money with your investment it doesn't make sense to try to buy it especially when your business isn't in the tech industry. Something just doesn't make sense.
    09-25-13 11:13 AM
  20. PeterC4's Avatar
    I am a little annoyed... a little, because even though I don't mind losing what I invested, since it won't burn me all that much, it still irks me that I am losing. What I don't understand is why an insurance/casualty and property company has 10% interest and using their sig. Influence to buy the company? Also considering when they bought the shares they were expecting Lazaridis to stick around but 14 months later retired. After losing money with your investment it doesn't make sense to try to buy it especially when your business isn't in the tech industry. Something just doesn't make sense.
    If you read the 2012 financial statements of FFH you will see they have various portfolio investments including The Brick, Mega Brands, Arbor Memorial....
    09-25-13 02:47 PM
  21. CHIP72's Avatar
    Did anyone else notice the change in revenue recognition for hardware on the preliminary q2 report?

    "For the second quarter, the Company expects to recognize hardware revenue on approximately 3.7 million BlackBerry smartphones. Most of the units recognized are BlackBerry 7 devices, in part because certain BlackBerry 10 devices that were shipped in the quarter will not be recognized until those devices are sold through to end customers."

    From the above quote we see that they are only recognizing sales that were made to the end user.

    However, in the past they used to recognize revenue as the number of phones shipped to carriers. Here is an example from the Q1 report:

    "During the quarter, the Company shipped 6.8 million BlackBerry smartphones and approximately 100,000 BlackBerry PlayBook tablets."

    So from here we can see that Blackberry suddenly changed they way they recognize sales.

    Furthermore, in the q2 report, Blackberry says that they actually sold 5.9 million smartphones to end consumers but they couldn't recognize that as revenue since it included sales from shipments that were made last quarter which were already recognized as revenue in the previous quarter.
    here is the quote from the Q2 report:
    "During the second quarter, approximately 5.9 million BlackBerry smartphones were sold through to end customers, which included shipments made prior to the second quarter and which reduced the Companys inventory in channel."

    Therefore, it is because blackberry changed the way they recognize revenue that sales seem so low. If Blackberry used a consistent method of revenue recognition all along its numbers would be a lot better.

    For example if blackberry just used sales to end consumers all along then they would have reported sales of 5.9 million phones in Q2 instead of 3.7 million. That's more than 2 million phones that are not accounted for. That most likely would have put blackberry at a profit for Q2 since they were only down by 265 million (also assuming that you ignore the exaggerated inventory write-down).

    Does anyone else see this?
    Why would blackberry suddenly change their accounting practices now?? especially when the change would make them look even worse at a time like this.?

    And all this happened right before the buyout??
    If I'm interpreting what was said above correctly, that means at least 2.2 million of the 6.8 million smartphones shipped in the March-May quarter weren't sold until the June-August quarter.
    09-25-13 10:20 PM
  22. kevinnugent's Avatar
    I am a little annoyed... a little, because even though I don't mind losing what I invested, since it won't burn me all that much, it still irks me that I am losing. What I don't understand is why an insurance/casualty and property company has 10% interest and using their sig. Influence to buy the company? Also considering when they bought the shares they were expecting Lazaridis to stick around but 14 months later retired. After losing money with your investment it doesn't make sense to try to buy it especially when your business isn't in the tech industry. Something just doesn't make sense.
    The Canadian Government cannot block the sale of Blackberry pieces by a private owner. Remember, Blackberry themselves sought special leave to discuss the Foreign Ownership provisions in the law just last week. They must have worked out how they can get the best dollars by using Prem Watsa's "keeping it in Canada" offer as a reseller.
    M65c02 likes this.
    09-25-13 10:36 PM
  23. mset's Avatar
    What I don't understand is why an insurance/casualty and property company has 10% interest and using their sig. Influence to buy the company? After losing money with your investment it doesn't make sense to try to buy it especially when your business isn't in the tech industry. Something just doesn't make sense.
    There's nothing about the Fairfax offer that doesn't make sense. They are not simply an 'insurance/casualty and property company', so maybe your confusion results from this error. They are also money managers and have stakes in various businesses that don't have anything to do with insurance.

    It makes total sense to buy the firm if you are underwater on your position but believe either that the firm is undervalued or that there is a higher breakup value than the current market cap.

    If you're interested, you can check out what part of their business is insurance vs their other interests here

    Many people here seem to believe that if acquired, BBRY will be run by Fairfax as a tech company, but I doubt this. Breaking up the firm and trying to realize value that way is most likely at this point.
    M65c02 likes this.
    09-25-13 11:12 PM
  24. AlexXF's Avatar
    Does anyone else see this?
    Why would blackberry suddenly change their accounting practices now?? especially when the change would make them look even worse at a time like this?
    Because BBRY manipulated by their reports before. For examlpe - in previous report there was been 2.8 mm BB10 devices, but... as it known now - sold only 600K from them.

    They manipulated by 'Shipped' and 'Sold'. This is dirty game, of course. But if you read in previous quarter 600K instead of 2.8 mm, you'll be in shock.

    BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): Memorandum To The BlackBerry Board Of Directors: Stop The Charade And Manage The Company - Seeking Alpha
    09-26-13 07:36 AM
  25. slalom's Avatar
    This is a rip off...Unbelievable Prem Watsa

    Posted via CB10
    Don't blame Prem. If $9 is such a bad deal for shareholders, I'm sure some other offer will materialize. If it doesn't, maybe $9 is more than he needed to offer.
    09-26-13 11:04 AM
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