11-08-15 01:46 PM
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  1. M65c02's Avatar
    The Canadian Government cannot block the sale of Blackberry pieces by a private owner. Remember, Blackberry themselves sought special leave to discuss the Foreign Ownership provisions in the law just last week. They must have worked out how they can get the best dollars by using Prem Watsa's "keeping it in Canada" offer as a reseller.
    Kevin, you can take that truth to the bank. Prem absolutely got Canada's support prior to the offer and, very likely, Canada even blessed his offer even before it was made. Prem certainly knows how to grease the wheels in Canada, if not elsewhere.

    There's nothing about the Fairfax offer that doesn't make sense. They are not simply an 'insurance/casualty and property company', so maybe your confusion results from this error. They are also money managers and have stakes in various businesses that don't have anything to do with insurance.

    It makes total sense to buy the firm if you are underwater on your position but believe either that the firm is undervalued or that there is a higher breakup value than the current market cap.

    Many people here seem to believe that if acquired, BBRY will be run by Fairfax as a tech company, but I doubt this. Breaking up the firm and trying to realize value that way is most likely at this point.
    Correct on all points. Exactly, Prem isn't going to become a Tech mogul. His ego isn't that big; this baby's being auctioned for parts over the next 3 years.. We can hope that OS10, at least, remains viable and well serviced. Right ... but I'm not holding my breath on that one either.

    Because BBRY manipulated by their reports before. For examlpe - in previous report there was been 2.8 mm BB10 devices, but... as it known now - sold only 600K from them. They manipulated by 'Shipped' and 'Sold'. This is dirty game, of course. But if you read in previous quarter 600K instead of 2.8 mm, you'll be in shock.
    YEP, and as I said in May and early June, BB will do everything possible to inflate the financials for the end of June: They have to or they're toast. Results were so bad anyway, they had to sell by September's results because they can't roll-over two quarters of their inventory practices w/o showing a huge correction. If not for the sale (and prospects of a sale), BB is/was going to keep drifting down to $6-8 stock then find itself at $5 by early next year. There simply is no free cash flow .... gotta sell those darn units to make money and have a future ... no more no less!! So, I agree with mset, these alterations in inventory/sales values are only to correct from last quarter's aggressive accounting practices by BB.

    Blackberry OS10 phones account for 0% (rounded) of total phones in the marketplace. For a company that controlled just short of 66% about a half decade ago, what else is there to understand??? Be thankful for $9.
    Last edited by M65c02; 09-30-13 at 08:03 AM.
    danprown likes this.
    09-26-13 04:47 PM
  2. MPF94025's Avatar
    Kevin, you can take that truth to the bank. Prem absolutely got Canada's support prior to the offer and, very likely, Canada even blessed his offer even before it was made. Prem certainly knows how to grease the wheels in Canada, if not elsewhere.


    Correct on all points. Exactly, Prem isn't going to become a Tech mogul. His ego isn't that big; this baby's being auctioned for parts over the next 3 years.. We can hope that OS10, at least, remains viable and well serviced. Right ... but I'm not holding my breath on that one either.



    YEP, and as I said in May and early June, BB will do everything possible to inflate the financials for the end of June: They have to or they're toast. Results were so bad anyway, they had to sell by September's results because they can't roll-over two quarters of their inventory practices w/o showing a huge correction. If not for the sale (and prospects of a sale), BB is/was going to keep drifting down to $6-8 stock floating then find itself at $5 by early next year. There simply is no free cash flow .... gotta sell those darn units to make money and have a future ... no more no less!! I agree with mset, these alterations in inventory/sales values are only to correct from last quarter's aggressive accounting practices by BB.

    Blackberry OS10 phones account for 0% (rounded) of total phones in the marketplace. For a company that controlled just short of 66% about a half decade ago, what else is there to understand??? Be thankful for $9.
    I think many would be thankful not for a $9 offer, but for competent leadership from the CEO and BOD.

    Don't steal my wallet, take out the cash, and give it back to me as if you are my friend, as PW is doing. PW should have done his job as a director and fired incompetent management.

    There is more than enough evidence that almost everything from the release of the phones, to marketing, to sales, to support have been terribly coordinated and executed. Now, $9 is "good" because this management team drove the company into the ground?
    Just Me likes this.
    09-29-13 05:54 PM
  3. M65c02's Avatar
    Agree with your concerns/comments. In 2006, and maybe as late as 2009, BlackBerry still had a chance to have planned for an industry leadership role in this decade. The mgmt once responsible for building a mega-force in the the industry did not have the ability and/or desire to perform the tasks necessary to continue on top. It's sadly that simple and somewhat common with high flying cos.

    But the mgmt implosion is mostly water that has escaped over the dam at this point, albeit Fairfax will have to recruit someone to take over this mess if their intention is to kerp OD10 going. Probably best that we can hope for is a relatively smooth and quick sale to Fairfax and that they will keep OS10 percolating. Notwithstanding those that are shareholders and (foolishly) refused to cut losses absolutely no later than June, it's time for BB OS10 users to ready ourselves for new mgmt and a new future for BlackBerry--good or bad. But today, obviously it doesnt make sense for anyone to put all their business/personal eggs solely into reliance on the the BlackBerry basket until we determine the next owners strategy for our BB.

    So, not happy but this landslide we saw building from several winter's snows.
    Last edited by M65c02; 09-30-13 at 08:34 AM.
    09-30-13 08:21 AM
  4. slalom's Avatar
    Analysts now suggesting the offer will decrease to $7 per share after due diligence.

    Analyst sees Fairfax slashing BlackBerry bid to just $7 a share - The Globe and Mail

    Should make the shareholders in this thread even angrier!
    10-01-13 12:38 PM
  5. M65c02's Avatar
    Yep, as I've said repeatedly in posts since June, BB is a $7-8 stock if left to this fall--maybe $5-6 if left to bleed into early 2014. Frankly, I think Fairfax struck too soon but obviously they want to take control of their investment. There are a couple Funds that pursue big tech and it's possible that Msft also saw value in BB, albeit after the Nokia deal less likely. In striking fast, Fx likely also will attempt to leverage some value from BlackBerry parts while revamping OS10 strategy over next 3-5yrs before spinning-off this last remnant too.

    Yes, again, I undestand "not happy" sentiments w/fairfax offer but anyone that held after June (at the very latest) was playing the lottery only to get their money back. But it was absolutely impossible for BlackBerry to increase its shAre value (given June financials) except thru a $1-2 premium offered, as a buy out, by some "nutty" hedge fund. Remember, the downside u havent seen...hope for a smooth, quick close--both as a shareholder and as an OS10 fan.


    Posted via CB10
    10-02-13 08:27 PM
  6. kevinnugent's Avatar
    New BlackBerry Buyout Interest, Just Do Not Ignore the $7 Warning - BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) - 24/7 Wall St.


    New BlackBerry Buyout Interest, Just Do Not Ignore the $7 Warning
    By Jon C. Ogg October 2, 2013 1:38 pm EDT

    Print Email
    inShare.0 It is no longer a secret that Blackberry Ltd. (NASDAQ: BBRY) is in trouble. It is also no secret that Fairfax Financial has entered into an expression of interest to acquire the troubled company for its patents and assets at $9.00 per share. One fresh analyst report now puts the sum of the parts being worth only $7 per share. So what are investors supposed to think when they see reports that Cerberus and other firms are expressing some interest in potentially acquiring BlackBerry?

    Dow Jones has written a report that Cerberus Capital Management LP, one of the top private equity firms, is seeking to sign a confidentiality agreement with BlackBerry in order to do the proper financial due diligence. We would point out that expressing interest is far from making a new buyout offer. It is also far from signaling that it would seek to make a higher buyout offer than the $9 that Fairfax has indicated.

    We would also point out that this interest from Fairfax is not exactly a formal buyout. It is subject to due diligence and financing and there is a go-shop provision.

    So, there may be some serious concern that the $9 buyout price will either not hold or would be walked away from. BlackBerry closed at $7.92 on Tuesday and was trading down as low as $5.51 on Wednesday morning. This is a wide enough spread that the market is signaling two things: 1) there will not be a super-premium bidding war and 2) that the deal may not happen at all.

    On Monday we highlighted that an analyst at Canaccord Genuity gave only a $7 price target on shares of BlackBerry. The consumer business was given a long-term value of zero, and the report warned that few future sales opportunities exist. Even the intellectual property was valued at $1.5 billion versus the $3.5 billion that the company thinks they are worth. Even the cash expected value was slashed down to $1 billion due to loss expectations, financial commitments and severances. The enterprise subscriber base was given a value of only $1.25 billion.


    Maybe Cerberus is interested and maybe it is not. The reality is that the case for a super-premium deal is dwindling each week that new audience and consumer trends measurements are available. The Android phones from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and the iPhones from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) have handily killed BlackBerry.

    Everyone seems to have either an iOS or an Android smartphone these days. The elephant in the room that nobody wants to acknowledge is that BlackBerry as a phone is perhaps just the next Palm. When was the last time you saw a Palm phone in use?

    BlackBerry shares were up almost 2% at $8.07 in mid-afternoon trading on Wednesday. That may be better than earlier in the day, but it is still far from the $9 bogey that is currently used as a benchmark.

    By Jon C. Ogg


    Read more: New BlackBerry Buyout Interest, Just Do Not Ignore the $7 Warning - BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) - 24/7 Wall St. New BlackBerry Buyout Interest, Just Do Not Ignore the $7 Warning - BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) - 24/7 Wall St.
    Follow us: @247wallst on Twitter | 247wallst on Facebook
    M65c02 likes this.
    10-02-13 10:39 PM
  7. Just Me's Avatar
    $7 warning will not rattle those betting on the long. There is value in BlackBerry. Competing privatization bids need to provide those who want to stay in a method of doing so.

    Anyone still holding does not care what Wall street is saying, has said and is going to continue to say.

    Posted via CB10
    10-11-13 08:40 AM
  8. notfanboy's Avatar
    $7 warning will not rattle those betting on the long. There is value in BlackBerry. Competing privatization bids need to provide those who want to stay in a method of doing so.

    Anyone still holding does not care what Wall street is saying, has said and is going to continue to say.
    Some of these "longs" have proven impervious to any and all warnings. No matter what the media, the analysts, or the SEC filings say, no matter that so many of their past predictions fall by the wayside, all of these roll off like water off a duck's back.
    10-11-13 08:58 AM
  9. rim_investor's Avatar
    Well Prem Watsa and Mike L are the ultimate longs and they are in at way higher than $9. I'm at $27 and haven't sold shares in the 6 years. I'm sure most longs will get a big haircut at $9.

    Posted via my AWESOME Z10 on CB10
    10-11-13 10:03 AM
  10. anon1727506's Avatar
    $7 warning will not rattle those betting on the long. There is value in BlackBerry. Competing privatization bids need to provide those who want to stay in a method of doing so.

    Anyone still holding does not care what Wall street is saying, has said and is going to continue to say.

    Posted via CB10
    No they need to worry about what someone thinks they can get away with and what the Board and the majority will approve.

    BlackBerry has an experation date on it, they are slowing running out of money.... they really can't afford to say no too many times. "those betting on the long" have already lost, at this point it's a matter of degrees
    10-11-13 12:03 PM
  11. M65c02's Avatar
    $7 warning will not rattle those betting on the long. There is value in BlackBerry. Anyone still holding does not care what Wall street is saying, has said and is going to continue to say.
    One of those classic understatements of which, on occassion, I can't resist but point out. .... No one is really left in BB for anything but pocket change. NO ONE, no institution and no individual. That's not to say that there won't be a week of red faces with a couple of institutions but this is textbook fall from grace both relative to the history of the Tech industry as well as many other industries--as outlined in posts, beginning in April, that point to numerous failed Cos that (once had) had much higher status than BB.
    Some of these "longs" have proven impervious to any and all warnings. No matter what the media, the analysts, or the SEC filings say, no matter that so many of their past predictions fall by the wayside, all of these roll off like water off a duck's back.
    There is always some penny stock trading mentality present...Hey, how else would Vegas and Atlantic City do so well??.. Okay, I mean rather Vegas and the slot machines on reservations (forget AC) do so well. For BB, the brunt of the (major) holdings are still in the hand of institutions (and proxies) that otherwise have interests (not directly related to BB) inextricably tied to their BB holdings. They'll entrust what's left of BB to Prem or possibly another bid sponsored, in part, by one of the 3-4 tech "hedgies" and/or Morgan Stanley. Getting late for a pure tech company to jump in if only because Prem stands in the door--and he's not looking for (?!?) an Icahn flip.

    Well Prem Watsa and Mike L are the ultimate longs and they are in at way higher than $9. I'm at $27 and haven't sold shares in the 6 years. I'm sure most longs will get a big haircut at $9.
    Whew, my presumption is you are gambling with your yearly jaunt to the Casino or, perhaps, beer money for a year. Remember or learn, as stated above, an institution doesn't have to, nor should it, always look at an individual investment in a vaccuum. There are many ties, favors, future considerations, past paybacks, regulatory issues, etc. that dictate (or may justify) reasons for holding/purging stock.

    No they need to worry about what someone thinks they can get away with and what the Board and the majority will approve. BlackBerry has an experation date on it, they are slowing running out of money.... they really can't afford to say no too many times. "Those betting on the long" have already lost, at this point it's a matter of degrees
    That's another way of puttig it. I like this posters use of the concept of "expiration date" and "matter of degree." Yes, a loss is a done deal from a historically statistical perspective (~99%) and factual standpoint given the asset/future earnings value of BB--at least for anyone with $10-12+. This will be lucky to close at $9....but I'd really rather be talking about the future of our OS10. Let's just close the darn deal for somewhere $8.50-$9.50 and move on.....before this baby craters to $6 (or less) and any chance for a renewed future for OS10 gets lost in the shuffle.
    Last edited by M65c02; 10-11-13 at 01:56 PM.
    10-11-13 01:43 PM
  12. Just Me's Avatar
    One of those classic understatements of which, on occassion, I can't resist but point out. .... No one is really left in BB for anything but pocket change. NO ONE, no institution and no individual. That's not to say that there won't be a week of red faces with a couple of institutions but this is textbook fall from grace both relative to the history of the Tech industry as well as many other industries--as outlined in posts, beginning in April, that point to numerous failed Cos that (once had) had much higher status than BB.
    Huh?

    You seem much more invested in the sale of BlackBerry than the groups bidding on it.



    Posted via CB10
    10-16-13 12:56 PM
  13. danprown's Avatar
    Don't jinx it. So far, there has been a tentative offer by a consortium. No one has bid yet.

    Huh?

    You seem much more invested in the sale of BlackBerry than the groups bidding on it.



    Posted via CB10
    10-21-13 10:25 AM
  14. Just Me's Avatar
    BBMx launch will solidify some more competitive bids before November 4th. I am sure anything I say will have no impact "jinx'ing" any offers.

    Posted via CB10
    10-21-13 02:04 PM
  15. M65c02's Avatar
    Done, and in the vat now, for even less cost/risk than Prem's original tentative offer.
    11-08-13 10:25 AM
  16. k1rkland's Avatar
    Anyone still angry at the $9 bid from Fairfax two years ago?
    07-14-15 05:29 PM
  17. dalinxz's Avatar
    Anyone still angry at the $9 bid from Fairfax two years ago?
    Yes, I blame Watsa and Chen and believe they're the reason for the company faltering today. I believe there is some sort of agenda by them and believe they both need to be ousted.

    Posted via CB10
    07-14-15 08:02 PM
  18. Tre Lawrence's Avatar
    Yes, I blame Watsa and Chen and believe they're the reason for the company faltering today. I believe there is some sort of agenda by them and believe they both need to be ousted.

    Posted via CB10
    Prem is a business guy. Of course he has an agenda: he looks to make money.

    What has he done to deviate from that?
    07-14-15 08:34 PM
  19. Irish Blues's Avatar
    Yes, I blame Watsa and Chen and believe they're the reason for the company faltering today. I believe there is some sort of agenda by them and believe they both need to be ousted.

    Posted via CB10
    Yeah, real damn shame we still don't have Heins running the company with no direction at all.
    Dunt Dunt Dunt and luc4625 like this.
    07-14-15 08:45 PM
  20. k1rkland's Avatar
    Well, since Fairfax continues to be the largest shareholder, we can safely assume that the current strategy from the CEO on down over the past two years is exactly what they would have done had they succeeded in taking the company private. Actually, the cost cutting would have probably been worse if the company had been bought out because once you saddle a company with a lot of debt then there is tons of pressure raise cash because all of a sudden you don't have public shareholder's money to play around with. Have you heard any big moves from Dell since they were taken private about two years ago?
    kadakn01 likes this.
    07-14-15 10:41 PM
  21. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Well, since Fairfax continues to be the largest shareholder, we can safely assume that the current strategy from the CEO on down over the past two years is exactly what they would have done had they succeeded in taking the company private. Actually, the cost cutting would have probably been worse if the company had been bought out because once you saddle a company with a lot of debt then there is tons of pressure raise cash because all of a sudden you don't have public shareholder's money to play around with. Have you heard any big moves from Dell since they were taken private about two years ago?
    And that is where you start going wrong....

    Private or Public... doesn't change the products that they are able to put out. Which is the real problem with the value of BlackBerry.

    Sure shorter have played with the stock, but when it comes down to it the revenues and the "potential" for revenues have been the driving factors. Chen came on board and people saw some hope and believed all his talk about "potential" new direction and products. But eighteen months later some of those potential products have not lived up to the hype - BBM & BES, and others like the IoT are still unknowns.

    The big difference now is the company's assets are worth half what they were then.... Plus Fairfax has debs on the first 1.25 Billion that comes off the top, so the risk to shareholder is much higher now.

    But then shareholder have Chen's word that “I don’t have any intention to sell BlackBerry. Not until the BlackBerry shareholder has good value reflecting truly what we have. Then, if there is a potential proper suitor that would take care of our customers… I have a fiduciary responsibility to listen. But until then, there’s not point in listening.”
    07-15-15 09:19 AM
  22. k1rkland's Avatar
    Well, I hope that the assets aren't worth half of what they were two years ago. The value of the patents might have decreased some since the smartphone patent wars have cooled off a lot and there aren't as many players that are in the game. The hardware business has been pretty much valued at zero for years, now. QNX? Who knows. And they haven't burned that much cash.

    Ever know someone who was selling a car or a house and kept saying "I'm not selling until I get an offer that reflects what it's worth." How did it go? Usually, it is worth what someone is willing to pay not what the seller thinks its worth.

    The big difference now is the company's assets are worth half what they were then.... Plus Fairfax has debs on the first 1.25 Billion that comes off the top, so the risk to shareholder is much higher now.

    But then shareholder have Chen's word that “I don’t have any intention to sell BlackBerry. Not until the BlackBerry shareholder has good value reflecting truly what we have. Then, if there is a potential proper suitor that would take care of our customers… I have a fiduciary responsibility to listen. But until then, there’s not point in listening.”
    07-15-15 12:00 PM
  23. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Well, I hope that the assets aren't worth half of what they were two years ago. The value of the patents might have decreased some since the smartphone patent wars have cooled off a lot and there aren't as many players that are in the game. The hardware business has been pretty much valued at zero for years, now. QNX? Who knows. And they haven't burned that much cash.

    Ever know someone who was selling a car or a house and kept saying "I'm not selling until I get an offer that reflects what it's worth." How did it go? Usually, it is worth what someone is willing to pay not what the seller thinks its worth.
    If you are an investor... you might want to go pull out an ER from right before Chen took over and compare it to one today.

    Too be honest, I don't know how the patents get "valued" for reporting purposes.... but I still wouldn't be surprised if they are worth half as much. Some have expired, some where not worth anything anyway, and the patent market has gone WAY down. Also as part of Rockstar they sold a big portion of those patents... for a quarter of what they paid for them. At one time I was hearing that BlackBerry's might be worth as much as $6 Billion... but no one wants to even guess in today's market what they are worth.

    But they have sold a lot of physical assets - production facilitates and equipment, office campus, satellite offices..... They just simple don't have as many assets as the did two years ago.

    And the CASH... well CASH is not always really CASH. Fairfax gets their $1.25 Billion back off the top if they decided to sell their special shares. And long term and short term investments are also figured into this amount. Something like BlackBerry $100 million investment into Nanthealth.... most likely they will never get a payment on this so from a finial point of view its really worthless. But from a business partnership point of view it was a good investment. You could always hope that they put a billion dollars into APPL back eight or nine years ago.....

    I really don't know what BlackBerry is worth today... but I don't "feel" that their "value" has gone up or even remained constant - regardless of where the stock price is from the day Chen took over.
    07-15-15 01:47 PM
  24. Prem WatsApp's Avatar
    And that is where you start going wrong....

    Private or Public... doesn't change the products that they are able to put out. Which is the real problem with the value of BlackBerry.

    Sure shorter have played with the stock, but when it comes down to it the revenues and the "potential" for revenues have been the driving factors. Chen came on board and people saw some hope and believed all his talk about "potential" new direction and products. But eighteen months later some of those potential products have not lived up to the hype - BBM & BES, and others like the IoT are still unknowns.

    The big difference now is the company's assets are worth half what they were then.... Plus Fairfax has debs on the first 1.25 Billion that comes off the top, so the risk to shareholder is much higher now.

    But then shareholder have Chen's word that I dont have any intention to sell BlackBerry. Not until the BlackBerry shareholder has good value reflecting truly what we have. Then, if there is a potential proper suitor that would take care of our customers I have a fiduciary responsibility to listen. But until then, theres not point in listening.
    Still, a private company does not have to produce or show results on a quarterly basis, but can develop their strategy on time frames as needed. Also no need to watch, or tend the stock price... :-)

    Sure, there will be less publicity, good or bad.

      "BB Android Armageddon: Chenisys is uploading in 5,4,3..."  
    07-15-15 04:57 PM
  25. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    If you are an investor... you might want to go pull out an ER from right before Chen took over and compare it to one today.

    Too be honest, I don't know how the patents get "valued" for reporting purposes.... but I still wouldn't be surprised if they are worth half as much. Some have expired, some where not worth anything anyway, and the patent market has gone WAY down. Also as part of Rockstar they sold a big portion of those patents... for a quarter of what they paid for them. At one time I was hearing that BlackBerry's might be worth as much as $6 Billion... but no one wants to even guess in today's market what they are worth.

    But they have sold a lot of physical assets - production facilitates and equipment, office campus, satellite offices..... They just simple don't have as many assets as the did two years ago.

    And the CASH... well CASH is not always really CASH. Fairfax gets their $1.25 Billion back off the top if they decided to sell their special shares. And long term and short term investments are also figured into this amount. Something like BlackBerry $100 million investment into Nanthealth.... most likely they will never get a payment on this so from a finial point of view its really worthless. But from a business partnership point of view it was a good investment. You could always hope that they put a billion dollars into APPL back eight or nine years ago.....

    I really don't know what BlackBerry is worth today... but I don't "feel" that their "value" has gone up or even remained constant - regardless of where the stock price is from the day Chen took over.
    A) the $1.25 billion is already factored in as share dilution. If they pay back in cash, a ton of short shares cover. That's just the way it works, at least below that $10 pivot. Also Fairfax doesn't hold the whole thing.

    B)Nanthealth is scheduled to IPO shortly. That $100 will be paid back way more than you think.

    C) The recent Cisco deal just proved that that patent portfolio is worth more than the market is pricing in. Sure it's gone down, but value on security and IOT patents are picking up. BlackBerry has a huge amount of those. Cisco and a second unnamed party are willing to pay, so therefore it is now worth more as an asset.

    D) Real estate assets, for the most part are gone, I'll agree.





    Posted via CB10
    07-15-15 06:00 PM
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